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About CalBear

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  1. If the offensive unit can change to a ST unit, why can't the ST unit change to an offensive unit? Maybe it has something to do with the kind of play they run?
  2. It's relevant because whether it's a "special teams play" is defined by what happens on the play, not by what personnel is on the field. Which is what everyone has been trying to get you to understand.
  3. It's not a 2PAT. It's a drop kick. It's still in the NFL rulebook. It doesn't matter that Flutie isn't a kicker. It doesn't matter that the unit on the field is offensive players. It matters that he kicked it, therefore he gets credit for a PAT, and if it's blocked, the ST gets credit for a block, and if the block gets run back for a defensive 2PT, the ST gets 2 points. Even though the "special teams unit" wasn't on the field.
  4. It happens. Jared Goff did it a number of times at Cal. If he punts, it's a ST play. If he doesn't punt, it's not. Pretty simple.
  5. Doug Flutie comes out in offensive formation on a 2-point conversion and drop-kicks it for a point. XP or somehow an offensive play? Someone blocks the drop kick. ST block?
  6. So it's not a punt, but it's a punt return?
  7. OK, someone on the other team receives the Cousins 3rd-down punt and runs it back for a TD. How do you score that?
  8. Especially just to include an obviously wrong take that was brought up three years ago?
  9. I'm using 50% for simplicity. Yes, XPs are less than 100%, and 2-point conversions are not exactly 50% (49.4% in 2019 for the whole league, but the offense/defense matters). 50% is close enough for the purposes of estimation. (Plus, if you miss the PAT you still have the possibility that they miss the PAT, or that you have enough time to kick a FG and win in regulation, or other cases which are probably greater than the difference between 47.5% and 49.4%).
  10. I think going for 2 there is statistically pretty much a wash. Obviously you win in both scenarios if you stop them from scoring a TD, so let's look at the rest of the scenarios. Go for 2: Win if you make it (~50%). Lose in the case that they score a TD, kick the XP, win in OT (~50%), or in the case that they score a TD, go for 2 and make it (50%). You win ~75% of the cases either way. Go for 1: Lose if they score a TD, go for 2 and make it (~50%) and win in OT (~50%) = ~75% either way. There are edge cases (like missing the XP) but overall I think team and game dynamics are worth considering to tip the decision one way or the other.
  11. It's a hell of a lot better than "You kick the FG there. Go up by 8. Obvious." Which is what passes for analysis most of the time.
  12. In that case there are a ton of examples. First-and-10 inside your own 10 down by 4 -6 points with ~2:00 left has to happen pretty regularly. Kicking off up by 8 with ~2:00 left has to happen multiple times a season.
  13. #######' PFR sold out so now I need to find another query tool for this kind of stuff. But I don't think that fourth-and-1, up by 5, ball inside the opponent's 10, ~2:00 left on the clock, is particularly unusual. There are probably at least dozens of examples. And dozens more on the edges of those cases (ball inside the 5, ~1:30 left, and so on). It's never exactly the same but you can get a decent idea of the parameters.
  14. And if you don't kick the FG, and succeed in making a first down, you never have to play defense. The game is over and you win. When you leave out that possibility, you leave out the most important part of the question.