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CalBear

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About CalBear

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  1. And that narrative just makes him the second-most-overrated QB of all time, behind Elway who got the same benefit of the doubt because of his similarly over-hyped draft pedigree. Fact is, nothing Luck did jumps off the paper as special. If he hadn't been touted as massive can't-miss prospect a year before he even finished school, we'd be thinking about whether he or Nick Foles was better. (Their rate stats are quite similar).
  2. Among QBs with > 2000 passing attempts, 2012-2018: Completion percentage: #20 (just behind E.Manning) TD% #7 (just behind P.Rivers) INT% #14 (just behind J.Flacco) Passer rating #20 (just behind E.Manning) ANY/A #17 (just behind C.Palmer) Bummer for Indy that he's quitting but it's not like he was the Second Coming that everyone expected him to be, anyway.
  3. We use FanDraft for our in-person auction, and it supports keepers, but last year its online tool was really crappy. They supposedly upgraded it but I haven't tried it.
  4. I wasn’t stoked to be down at 1.16, but the way the draft has gone the last couple of years, I figured there would still be some value down there. And I wasn’t disappointed, as two non-receivers went off the board first, both very questionable picks. Look, I know Stinkin’ Ref, last year’s winner, had Barkley and KC TMQB on his team, but he picked them up at 1.13 and 5.13. There’s no way Barkley is worth 1.01 in this format, and KC TMQB is only worth it if Mahomes again outscores the field by 100 points as he did in 2018. That’s not inconceivable but my money’s on the field. Those picks, along with other reaches for RB and TMQB, left some solid receiving options at the turn. 1.16 JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR PIT) The league did a good job of knocking out top tier of TEs, but there were still a lot of good ones down here. I’d plugged in five a few picks ago, with Smith-Schuster as #2 on that list (after Julio Jones). He’s pretty dang awesome and should be even more awesome as the clear #1 in PIT. Expecting a top-5 WR finish which is big at 1.16. 2.01 Antonio Brown (WR OAK) Brown was #5 on that same list. He’s also awesome, but he has a lot more risk associated with him. Switching teams isn’t great for a WR whose production relies on timing and rapport with the QB, and this weird thing with his feet is bizarre. Still, he has a finished as the #1 WR in Anarchy and he has the skill to get there again. Though in retrospect I wish I’d taken Keenan Allen (Go Bears!), especially because this pick was before the whole helmet debacle. Long way to go until my next pick. I’m expecting I’ll be focusing on TEs; after the first four or five the curve flattens out a lot, and there are enough decent options that I can probably pick up one or two at the turn of the third. 3.16 Melvin Gordon (RB LAC) Earlier in the round I’d been excited to see RBs like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette still on the board, but they got knocked out a few picks earlier. I’d also been targeting Robert Woods and a couple of TEs who got taken ahead of me. So I wound up with Gordon, which is actually a decent pick for Anarchy, I think. His holdout is the big question mark; this could be a Le’Veon Bell situation that turns into a disaster. (And it's gotten worse since I made the pick) But if he plays 10+ games he’s a massive bargain at 3.16 (he finished as RB6 last year). 4.01 Austin Hooper (TE ATL) When in doubt, take a TE. Hooper finished as the #6 TE in Anarchy last year and he’s the #11 TE off the board here. Unexciting, and even worse, he’s from Stanfraud, but there’s not a lot of value in the draft right now so it’s a BPA situation. For that matter, now that I came out of the first four rounds with two WRs, a TE and an RB, I’ll be pretty flexible with my next set of picks. Whatever looks good. 5.16 Marvin Jones (WR DET) Go Bears! Jones is a playmaker, inconsistent in weekly fantasy, but pretty well guaranteed to get 60ish receptions and 1000ish yards if he comes back healthy, which seems likely. He might get those numbers in four or five huge games, but that doesn’t matter for Anarchy. He doesn’t have a whole lot of upside from there, but he should be a solid pick at this spot (and possibly my only token Bear this year). The draft had gone heavy on RB and TE leading up to this pick so WR is where the value was; Jones was my first choice for the spot. 6.01 Will Fuller (WR HOU) Fuller was actually my second choice so I’m pretty happy at this point. His story is pretty similar to Jones’; likely to be around 60 receptions and 1000 yards if he’s healthy and plays 16. His health might be a little sketchier, but his upside is also probably a little higher than Jones. I’m pretty happy with the pick at this spot in any case. I’m now pretty WR-heavy so I’m expecting to hit TE and/or RB at the next turn. 7.16 Jordan Howard (RB PHI) We’re well out of the sexy RB phase, but the run on QBs left some value out there. Howard is potentially a pretty solid RB with some upside depending on how the backfield situation in PHI shakes out. If he gets goal-line touches, which seems likely, he’ll be in pretty good pickup for a mid-round Anarchy RB. 8.01 Matt LaCosse (TE NEP) We are almost out of TEs with pulses at this point, and I need at least one more. LaCosse’s move to New England creates some possibilities; he’s not Gronk by a long shot but New England always finds ways to use its TEs. It’s not clear that LaCosse will be the guy, but even if he comes up with 40 receptions he’ll be good value here. I still need at least one WR and two RBs. Right now people have moved away from the RB stable, and there are a few others in this tier I’m interested in (Penny Rashaad, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy), and I’ll probably sit on CJ Anderson later (Go Bears). Unlikely I’ll be going for a QB or any other position at the next turn; probably two RBs, or a RB and a WR. 9.16 Rashaad Penny (RB SEA) The run has been on QB and WR. As usual I’ll be leaving QB to the end of the draft, and I need some RBs, so I went with two here. My first pick, Peterson, went at 9.13, but I’m OK with Penny at this point of the draft. He’s the #2 in an RBBC, but so is almost everyone at this point. With luck he could be the #1b in Seattle. He was pretty effective in limited play in 2018, and if he gets more like 150 touches in 2019 he’ll be able to produce some decent numbers. 10.01 LeSean McCoy (RB BUF) McCoy is the one RB left who’s still the nominal starter. And he doesn’t have much behind him; a 36-year-old Frank Gore and a third-round pick in Devin Singletary. The only reason he’s still on the board is that his 2018 was pretty dang crappy, and there’s some risk that he gets cut if Singletary looks like the real deal. My bet is that he’ll keep the job, and that his performance will be closer to 2017 (~1600 total, 8 TDs) than 2018 (~750 total, 3 TDs). I’m now up with four RBs, four WRs and two TEs, so only one more WR and the flex to fill. I’m hoping to target CJ Anderson for the flex later; that might have to be at the next turn, depending on how the draft goes from here. Looks like kickers are starting so there might be some time, but teams are pretty RB-poor (I’m only the second team to have 4 RBs). 11.16 Matt Prater (PK DET) OK, look. It’s one thing to grab Keenan Allen ahead of me, or to snarf Jared Goff before I’d be willing to take him. I understand that that’s part of fantasy football. But, really, taking Giorgio Tavecchio as the #6 PK just before my pick? That’s just mean. My roster of real positions is getting full enough that I have space to start taking PKs and QBs. Looking at the landscape, I’m expecting a run on PKs and Ds to start here, and I think there are enough RBs left out there that I’ll be able to grab my targeted flex, CJ Anderson, at the next turn. So i’m going to pick a WR and kicker here. And it woulda been Tavecchio, dammit rzrback77. Instead, it’s some other guy. Kickers suck. My PK philosophy is, take one from Cal, and if you can't, take one from a dome. This one’s from a dome. 12.01 Tre’Quan Smith (WR NOS) A good-looking receiver on a high-powered offense. He’s officially behind Ted Ginn Jr. on the depth chart, but he’ll see the field a ton and make some noise. I’m pretty happy with this as my likely last WR. I also considered Golden Tate, and would have gone that way if he hadn’t switched teams as well as gotten suspended. Now hoping that Anderson falls to 13.16, and then picking up a couple QBs and Ds. 13.16 CJ Anderson (RB DET) I was surprised to see six RBs go before my pick in the 13th round and I was definitely getting worried that I’d miss out on my boy. He was probably next up on a bunch of people’s lists. He’s not going to be the bell cow in Detroit, but you have to love what he did off the couch in LA last year. I think he’s always been underrated as a talent, even at Cal, and he’ll likely get a lot of snaps, and possibly be the goal-line back in Detroit. Should be a pretty solid flex, and always fun to watch. 14.01 Aldrick Rosas (PK NYG) We’ve run out of domes. Whatever. The QBs left all look kinda the same to me, so I might as well pick up another kicker before I have to pay attention to the camp battles. Now, two QBs, two Ds. 15.16 Jacksonville Jaguars TMQB I don’t think Nick Foles is likely to be awesome in Jacksonville, but he could manage mediocre, and that would be good value down here. 16.01 Miami Dolphins TMQB Fitzmagic! He’s not a good NFL QB but he puts up reasonable fantasy numbers wherever he goes. Josh Rosen would be not as good a situation. But whoever’s there has decent targets in Parker, Stills and Woods. Now a coupla D’s and I’m set. There are some Cal defenders hanging around out there. 17.16 New York Giants DST Defense. No Cal players that I know of. Think we’re out of them. 18.01 Cincinatti Bengals DST Another defense. See 17.16 Overall I found the draft a little strange. Maybe because Fiddles isn’t in the league this year, there were very few cases where anyone took guys that I was targeting near where I had them (only Tavecchio, grr). I’m reasonably pleased with the lineup but it’ll take two situations working out reasonably: Antonio Brown and Melvin Gordon. Both have gotten worse since I made those picks. Brown seems to maybe be turning the corner but Gordon’s getting uglier. Gonna be a long season if he holds out until week 10. Structurally, it’s probably a mistake to end up with 5 RBs. Taking CJ Anderson where I did was probably the right thing, but maybe I should have passed on Lesean McCoy at 10.01. Scrub WRs and TEs are just way more powerful in Anarchy than scrub RBs so really my flex should be a receiver. Devante Parker, maybe. Thanks, Anarchy, for putting this together again, it always makes me jump-start my player evaluation. Good luck to all!
  5. Looks solid. Like being at the turn, hate being at 1.16, but maybe y'all will leave me the kind of awesome picks y'all did last year (and maybe they won't be out for the season before game 1 this year).
  6. Thought I responded in PM, In for league 2.
  7. Sure. But he NFL draft is already taking that into account. You only gain anything if you're exposing areas where the NFL draft is inefficient. Player 1 whose breakout age was 21 goes at 1.15. Player 2 whose breakout age was 19 goes at 2.15. Do you take Player 2 over Player 1 because of this metric?
  8. Not at all. Predictive analytics spends a ton of time looking at which factors actually are predictors, and which are conflated. For example, ballpark factors are good predictors in baseball. OPS vs. lefty/righty is a good predictor. "Clutch hitting" is not a good predictor, so baseball quants don't use it. Any quant would be very suspicious of a metric like "break out age" or BMI which is not meaningfully about performance. Especially when you're looking at a big spreadsheet with dozens of stats which are guaranteed to have multiple spurious correlations.
  9. It would be helpful. That doesn't mean it's possible. And there is a whole stack of statistical fallacies involved in looking at correlations in previous outcomes to predict future behaviors.
  10. No, you don't. Because there are more players within the thresholds. Their success rate isn't greater. There is no success predictor which has been shown to improve on NFL draft order. Which makes sense. NFL player evaluators have an actual job of reviewing NFL prospects. We have a remote control and an Excel spreadsheet.
  11. The league is not the employer, any more than the MPAA is the employer of George Clooney.
  12. "If getting paid billions of dollars to play real-life fantasy football doesn't make owners happy, nothing will." So let's turn the franchises into worker-owned cooperatives. Because the owners are just being entitled and selfish.
  13. This isn't a question of "choosing where they live." It's a question of choosing which company they want to work for, which is an entirely different thing. The ownership and management of NFL franchises are completely separate, and it's entirely reasonable for a human being to want to choose who they work for. Google can tell you that if you want to work for Google, the job is in Sunnyvale (or NYC). But they can't tell you that you can't work for Apple. Getting rid of the draft would increase the negotiating power of players, and there's really no downside to that. Parity is a myth. Four teams have never been to a Super Bowl in 50 years. Nine teams have never won one. ~70% of playoff teams had winning records the previous season. In the past 20 years (in fact, in the past 24), only 7 teams have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl; only 12 in the NFC.
  14. I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying it's 100% irrelevant. I'm sure the owners would make a hell of a lot less money if they had a real job, too.
  15. NFL franchise owners, like McDonald's franchise owners, make their own payroll decisions. McDonald's corporate doesn't hire and fire cooks, and the NFL league office can't hire and fire players or other personnel. The teams are independent entities, financially, in the same way as other franchises.