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About CalBear

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  1. I'm pretty sure that every 30-year-old Black man living in Louisiana is quite accustomed to having to work with authoritarian racist white dudes. They'll get through it.
  2. Gonzo could have played in the NBA. He wouldn't have been a star but he could have had a real career as a power forward. The reverse is true of LeBron. He'd be a gimmick in the NFL.
  3. You can start with "Perceptions of athletic superiority: A view from the other side", L.Harrison Jr. et al (2007) if you're actually interested in the question.
  4. Actually, it's entirely logical to assume discrimination is the cause of both ratios, because that's the society we live in. There's a ton of science on that. The idea that the cause might not be discrimination would be an extraordinary claim. It's also entirely logical to assume that discrimination is the cause of over 93% of Fortune 500 CEOs being men, and over 96% being white or Asian. Again, there's a ton of science that when a bunch of white dudes are asked to evaluate "the best candidate," they tend to prefer other white dudes. I'm still not a huge fan of the Rooney Rule in terms of policy, mostly because I don't think it really does much to fix the issue. But it's better than ignoring the discrimination which leads to our current situation.
  5. He's got more room on the upside than the downside, given that he hasn't scored more than 6 TDs since 2013. Sammy Watkins put up 1047/9 with Tyrod Taylor at QB in 2015. He's still the best route runner in the league. 90/1000/6 floor unless the offense completely falls apart.
  6. His analysis and understanding of the game were terrible, but at least he was also obnoxious to listen to.
  7. Were you "barking up the wrong tree" when you were off about influenza's mortality by an order of magnitude? Or when you wanted to believe a free-market lawyer with no medical or epidemiological training that COVID-19 would be 50-%90% less fatal than the flu? Or in the post you just made, where you asserted that Sweden's lack of shutdown "didn't make any difference" despite the fact 10 times as many people have died there compared to Norway. No, you weren't "barking up the wrong tree." You were dangerously wrong. One in 600 New Yorkers has already died. By the time this is over it could be one in 100. And there's nothing protecting the rest of the country from it becoming that bad, except the shelter-in-place orders.
  8. No one who studies epidemiology thinks we will be in herd immunity range by September. One dynamic that's relevant to the NFL is that everyone shares the TV revenue, but the stadium revenue goes to the teams. So the teams with big stadium investments like the Cowboys and the Raiduhs have a lot more incentive to push for home games with spectators than parasites like the Jaguars do.
  9. You know what an underlying risk factor is? Obesity. You know who's obese by definition? Like 75% of the NFL. And a lot of those guys are actually fat, not only big. A bunch have asthma, a number are diabetic. Fatalities are disproportionately male. In China, 0.2% of confirmed cases between ages 20-39 died. That's 2 in 1000. What's big, smelly, and has 3,392 legs? NFL regular-season rosters. Low risk is not the same as no risk.
  10. It was 401 attempts. Hey, here's a good few comparisons with around 400 attempts: 257/407, 3357/26/9 250/400, 3215/24/7 208/402, 3465/25/7 Those are: Russell Wilson 2013 Steve McNair 2003 (NFL MVP, tied) Steve Young 1992 (NFL MVP)
  11. OK, I think we're splitting hairs here. If you insist, I'll say Jackson put up "an elite passing season that might have had him in the conversation for league MVP even if he hadn't done any running."
  12. I think it is likely that Jackson's TD% (per pass attempt) will remain among the highest in the league.
  13. Sure. He's had one great season, he's not a future HOFer yet. He also was solid in the last four games of his rookie season so it's not like it's entirely isolated. I just think comparing him to flash-in-the pan QBs doesn't make sense when his "flash" is better than anything they ever did. Even if he's not as good in his next season it's a lot more likely he falls back to Cam Newton levels than to RG3 levels. And he has the potential to be spectacular.
  14. I'm saying that his passing performance is more comparable to the list above than to the other guys he's being compared to, like RG3, Vick and God-forbid-on-bended-knee TimTebow. Of course he can't be crowned as better than Steve Young at this point in his career, but I think the question of whether Jackson will have a career that's closer to Randal Cunningham or Steve Young is a lot more relevant than whether he'll have a career that's closer to RG3 or Tim Tebow. By far the best current comparison is Russell Wilson and people seem to have gotten over saying he'll never succeed because he runs.
  15. The passer rating Jackson put up in 2019 is better than any of Steve Young's complete seasons. It is also substantially better than the best seasons of any of the guys you list except for Wilson. (And, it's better than Wilson's best, too, but only a notch better). If you want to find an antecedent for Jackson, you have to start by finding someone who's capable of putting up one of the best passing seasons in NFL history. (#8 all time in passer rating). Young, Daunte Culpepper, and Wilson are the only three on the list of 110+ QB rating seasons (n=17, min 400 attempts) who've had a rushing season over 500 yards. If you drop it to 105 QB rating (n=33) you add Cunningham's 1998 (a season when he rushed for 132 yards). Drop it down to 100 (n=72) and you add Donovan McNabb, Deshaun Watson, and Steve McNair. So, start with the list of: Young Wilson McNabb McNair Culpepper Cunningham Speculate where Jackson will end up on that list as a passer. And add in the fact that he's is a better runner than all of them, by a lot.