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CalBear

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  1. First of all, that article is about 370 carries, not 370 touches. And it ignores post-season carries, which is intellectually dishonest. Second of all, it's a perfect example of multiple endpoint fallacy. What's magic about the 370th carry? Nothing, obviously. So why that number? Here's why: In NFL history, there have been 8 RB seasons which ended between 367 and 369 carries. (Extremely bizarrely, Curtis Martin did it three times). Here are the results of the following year for those backs: 1980 Earl Campbell: 373/1934/13, 11/47/0, RB#2 1980 Walter Payton: 317/1460/6, 46/367/1, RB#4 1995 Emmitt Smith: 377/1773/25, 62/375/0, RB#1 1996 Curtis Martin: 316/1152/14, 46/333/3, RB#4 1998 Terrell Davis: 392/2008/21, 25/217/2, RB#1 1999 Curtis Martin: 367/1464/5, 45/259/0, RB#8 2000 Edgerrin James: 387/1700/13, 63/594/5, RB#2 2000 Curtis Martin: 316/1204/9, 70/508/2, RB#8 So, four of the eight backs in this set led the league in rushing in the following year. Every one of them finished in the top 10, and four of eight finished as the #1 or #2 fantasy RB. Several of these are among the greatest RB seasons of all time. So what's magical about 367-369 carries? Nothing more than is magical about 370. No matter what the stat is, you can find a cut-off like this where the performances below the cutoff are better than the performances above the cutoff. You can go hunting for that cutoff point, as the people who did the original 370 carry article did. But you won't be describing anything useful about reality.
  2. Because he's maybe the best route runner in the NFL, has awesome hands, and has a QB who has thrown for 4000 yards six years in a row and is currently leading the league in that statistic. Rivers is on pace to throw for 4600 yards and just 21 TDs; how likely do you think that is?
  3. How about 2014 where he went 6 weeks without topping 73 yards and had just 1 TD. His next two games he went for 104/1 and 121/2. Or 2018 when he went six games without a 100-yard game or a TD, then scored TDs in five games in a row. He'll get his.
  4. Jacksonville, 4th and 10 at the Houston 20, down by 16, 11:05 left. They go for it. Even if they make the first down (~30% chance) they'd still need two TDs and two 2-point conversions just to tie. If you kick the FG, you still need two TDs but now you don't need the 2-point conversions and you actually would win the game. Another example of the fallacy of a tie being equivalent to a win.
  5. The idea that tanking is a net-positive strategy is, let's just say, lacking solid evidence. Regardless of who the hyped NCAA prospect might be. The last time it came up was in Sucking for Luck. And how did that work out? Zero Super Bowl appearances, 4 playoff wins in seven years. And four disastrously bad playoff losses to end those seasons. Luck in those losses: 79/164 (48.2%), 3 TD, 7 INT. There's way too much uncertainty in prospect evaluation to throw away a year for someone who might be good at some point in the future.
  6. The team was imploding. Which is my point. To say "but Anderson was cut by the Raiders!" when all the evidence is that the team was imploding, and a bunch of people left the team and had success in their next stop (including Anderson), shows that being cut by the Raiders isn't indication of a performance issue.
  7. Uh, he had two 1000-yard Pro Bowl seasons in Oakland.
  8. For that postseason run he was 106/171 (62.0%) for 1219 yards (305/gm) with 9 TDs and 1 INT.
  9. And what else do you want? The idea that Manning's Super Bowl MVP was the result of a single "lucky" catch in that game is ridiculous. He was very clearly the best offensive player in the game.
  10. Future first rounder. Turned out to be the 27th pick. For a player they drafted with the fourth pick and who was pretty clearly the best player on their offense.
  11. Oh sorry, they traded Cooper (and Mack) for a cup of coffee.
  12. He outplayed Brady. He was better in every stat (30/40 for 296 yards and a TD). And he won, including leading a fourth-quarter TD drive from his own 12-yard-line to take the lead.
  13. The Raiders are terrible at personnel management. They also cut Amari Cooper. And then they signed and cut Antonio Brown, and also picked up two of the biggest problems in the league, Incognito and Burfict, and probably neither of those survives the season. Getting cut by the Raiders is an indication of talent. Detroit isn't much better but it's definitely weird timing.
  14. First of all, the helmet catch play was an amazing play by Eli. He broke away from two different defenders who had hands on him, got into open space, and found a receiver downfield. The ball could have been lower but any good receiver catches it. It so happens that Tyree is not a good receiver so he almost blew the catch, which is why it looked luckier than it was. Manning had already given them the lead with a TD pass to Tyree earlier in the fourth quarter. And the drive in which the helmet catch occurred started at the 17 yard line; he'd already converted two first downs to put them in that position. And it was third and 5 with 1:15 on the clock at midfield; you can't say they would have lost had Tyree not caught it. And, the Giants still needed a TD; they were down by 4. Manning converted third-and-11 with a 12-yard pass to Steve Smith, and then the 13-yarder to Burress that won the game. Like it or not, it was one of the most epic drives in Super Bowl history. Against a previously undefeated team that was favored by 12 points. Just as with Namath's boast and victory, you have to give him credit for it. Namath was a crappy QB but he absolutely belongs in the Hall of Fame.