Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Buckychudd

Members
  • Content Count

    5,728
  • Joined

Posts posted by Buckychudd


  1. 10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    Unemployment is going to top 20% in May while we have a pandemic raging. I'm not trying to be a #### here, but cancellations will be more than here or there. I'm a good consumer, honestly one of the best, and that's not to be arrogant, but I'm excellent at looking at the macro picture and coming to the most logical conclusion... That's why I'm efficiently sitting in a castle near Disney as opposed to an apartment in NYC right now (and was doing so 2 weeks before the world officially collapsed). And I'm not trying to be a ####, and I'm truly sorry that this season will prob suck for you (along with almost any other property-for-income owner out there), I really wish it wouldn't, but there is no getting around the facts of what is happening right now, and how it will impact these types of business owners.

    The situation in Disney isn't Apples to Apples with a beach house, obviously. The demand won't go off a cliff like it did here, but it will fall aggressively based on the first sentence in this post, that's basically a fact. Personally, if I was an owner and someone came along that could guarantee 50% of what I normally get, I'd consider it.

    I gave you the numbers already; maybe you run at 70% occupied (I would consider this very lucky!) at a discount of 15% to 2019 rates. Could be just a little better, but also could be much much worse depending on things shake out. 

    I'm in a development right now where houses would go for $10-$20k a month during spring break. In a conversation I had with an owner jogging by my house (we kept a good distance from each other), only 10 houses are full-time residents, the other 90 are businesses. There are maybe 15 houses in this neighborhood currently occupied. So the owner of the house I have until June took my offer, while every other house here produces $0. He was the smart business owner, I was the smart consumer.

    I wish you the best this summer; you sound smart enough to hopefully financially plan to take a slight hit on this house this summer. Unfortunately, it will not be the same as 2019 unless something drastic happens in the next 6 weeks. 

    ETA: I believe 2021 could be a strong bounce-back candidate where the savvy owners come out stronger and the dumber ones get hurt. 

    Let me know what you find.  You can get something like what Drunken Cowboy posted, but I don't think you're getting to the beach.

    My take is the season will be a little worse than normal but not significantly so.  People are still going to vacation and they're more likely to go to a relatively uncrowded beach than NYC, Vegas, overseas, or Orlando.  Prices for most of the summer are already locked with the bookings that happened pre-Corona.  For the cancellations, sure folks will give you a deal for a week here and there but they're not going to kick renters out to book you at a huge discount.

    • Like 1

  2. 20 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    Let's say June/July/August normally gets an owner $30k for his house. Now his prices are going to fall this summer for sure, how much, who knows? But let's say 15%, so now he gets $25k (assuming almost 100% occupied), and then his house is occupied at 65% to what normally happens every summer.

    An owner can go through hell to try and pick up 60-70% of a normal summer if lucky, or he can capitulate, take the safety net, and move on. I need to find those owners, and they def exist. 

    They're already booked, they started booking up before the Corona Virus happened.  Sure there will be cancellations but it'll be a week here and there, not a three month period height of season.  If you're wanting to do this you're looking at 2021 not this summer.


  3.  

    2 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    But this is to my point. If the place is vacant during those times, the owner gets killed. If I can't find one for $15k, I'll just stay in Disney.

    I don't understand how these places will be swarmed when unemployment currently sits between 15 & 20%. 

    My place is open in August if you want to rent it then I'll give it to you for the month for $15k.  Tipsy Turtle


  4. 2 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    Just need one. That's an owner who will hedge the summer of 2020, ensure bills are paid, survive, and move along. 

    You don't understand the basic economics of these places, there is a 12-16 week rental period and they're literally vacant the remaining 8-9 months of the year.  They have to make enough high season to get them through the whole year, paying the bills for 3 months isn't going to help them.

    If you want to rent September - May you can demand your rates, not June - August.


  5. 9 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    Do you expect the same volume as 2019, because I feel even 50% volume is a stretch? Especially when combining the economic and health situation out there. I don't consider looking at 2019 prices as a benchmark, not even close. Just my .02. 

    The volume will be lower, but I don't think 50% lower.

    The issue is that these places generally rent by the week and they're booked months in advance.  So even with a decline in rentals most places will have weeks rented here and there.  You're not going to find many owners who will kick their weekly rentals out so you can rent for 3 months at a huge discount.


  6. 9 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

    The house I'm currently in by Disney normally rents for $12k a month, I'm paying a fraction of that, over spring break (normally peak season) nonetheless.

    The vacancy rates will be abnormally high this summer and owners will have to make tough decisions.  

    Yeah Disney is closed, the beaches won't be.


  7. So are you talking specifically North and South Carolina?

    In NC I've stayed all over the Outer Banks from Duck to Ocracoke, 12-15 times.  Emerald Isle, Atlantic Beach, Oak Island, Carolina and Kure beach, Oak Island.  I have a house on Topsail Island that I'm at right now.

    In SC I've done Myrtle, Sullivan's Isle & Isle of Palms near Charleston (and visited most of the others around Charleston), Harbor Island, Hilton Head, and Daufuskie Island.

    Most are pretty uncrowded, exceptions being Myrtle, and to a lesser extent the Wilmington, Charleston, and Hilton Head beaches and maybe Nags Head in OBX.

    Problem is for the time-frame you're talking about you're going to have a tough time finding open rentals.  Honestly you're going to have to go inland for a two month rental 6 weeks out.


  8. Finished my reread of Murderbot Diaries.  Great sci-fi novellas about a maladjusted rouge security robot (cyborg contruct?).  I highly recommend, funny and irreverent these novellas are pure fun and great for light reads if you want to tear through a couple.  Downside is they pretty much charge the same as a price of a full book for each.  They really should have combined the four into one novel.

    Started The Outsider last night.


  9. On 12/17/2019 at 6:50 PM, sports_fan said:

    The Fall of Hyperion 

    I read Hyperion around a year ago. This is a continuation of the story. Overall, I liked the first book. It’s an interesting story and I found parts of it captivating. I don’t care for the writing style all that much, which I guess is why it took me a while to get to the second book. So far it’s pretty much how I remember my experience with the first book, good not great.

    I liked Hyperion better than the other books, but they tell much more of a coherent story than Hyperion does. 


  10. 18 hours ago, RC94 said:

    I like this show, but I'm starting to agree with some of the criticism.  I think there should be a lot more species/alien variety.  The 4th episode was particularly disappointing since that tribe they saved was a good opportunity to make them a new species, but instead they were all just human.  Also, while I like some of the wild west theme, I think it would be good to show some other settings, such as a major urban setting, instead of just these backwater nothing towns.  These planets are all part of a galaxy where interstellar travel is commonplace.  Not everything should be some crappy settlement.  I know he's trying to lay low, but plenty of people can disappear in a big, crowded urban setting.  Plus, there's a lot of potential story lines from various settings.  It's still a very good show IMO, but there's room for improvement.  We are 4 episodes in at this point so I thought some of these things would have been a part of it by now, especially the larger variety of aliens. 

    They're going for the wild west or Kung Fu (TV) theme.  I wouldn't expect there to be too many urban settings.

    Everyone's expectations might be a little high for this show.  I think they're going for an entertaining serial, not something like GoT or Lost.

    • Like 5