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NYG Endzone

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About NYG Endzone

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  1. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/drumbeat-of-weaker-revenues.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29Just as a note Mish is a perma-bear. I read him all the time and he writes great stuff, but you have to look at his writings accounting for his slant.Understood but you can understand his logic right? High public debt, low growth prospects, and high FT unemployment is a recipe for disaster. http://www.investorsfriend.com/asset_performance.htm
  2. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/drumbeat-of-weaker-revenues.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
  3. to the contrary, only insane conspiracy theorists think the numbers are illegitimateI don't think it's a conspiracy but I would like to know how 114,000 new jobs, less than the average for the year, reduced unemployment by .3%? In July, 163,000 jobs were added and unemployment went up. Someone do the math for me. Not sure how it's calculated.Remember there's a numerator and denominator in the calculation.
  4. http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/05/septembers-confusing-unemployment-report/http://cnsnews.com/news/article/unemployment-rate-plummets-43-government-workershttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/
  5. Its been revised, as you can see here ... Somehow each revision lowers the "unemployment" ratehttp://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
  6. No. From twitter: The scorecard: Private sector job growth under Bush: -646k. Under Obama: +967k. I think you're forgetting GW Bush was in fact dumb as a rock but he was handed the aftermath following the dot com crash and the fall after the climax of the housing bubble his predecessor put in motion. Assuming your quoted numbers are accurate.So Bush should blame Clinton for his predicament....but Obama shouldn't blame Bush for his?They all made mistakes. It seems everyone blames Bush, but all three played a role.
  7. No. From twitter: The scorecard: Private sector job growth under Bush: -646k. Under Obama: +967k. I think you're forgetting GW Bush was in fact dumb as a rock but he was handed the aftermath following the dot com crash and the fall after the climax of the housing bubble his predecessor put in motion. Assuming your quoted numbers are accurate.
  8. Does anyone actually think unemployment/underemployment is improving? Sure if you consider people benefiting from these great numbers: those "lucky" enough to be forced into part-time work or excluded "discouraged" workers who are sipping margaritas at their beach side residence. Unemployment has NOT improved http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/business/economy/us-added-114000-jobs-in-september-rate-drops-to-7-8.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
  9. I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 couldIt is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.The P/E will most likely be in triple digits. Right now its 90 at $30/share and 90B valulation. (Facebook 2011 profit: $1 billion)Thus with, Facebook currently at a PE of lets say 100, growth rates need to be 100% for the next few years. To put this in another context, Google trades at 18.5x PE. Facebook needs to grow its bottom line 100% for the next 2.5 years to get there. Possible? Sure, but that is quite a feat considering that profits grew only 65% in 2011. Also in Q1 2012, their net income fell 12% to $205 million (which annually would be less than 1B). Google's PE >100 at IPOCorrect Goog did at IPO. The question is whether Facebook can grow as rapidly as Google to justify a triple digit P/E at IPO (an earnings yield of 1%). Further reading...http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/01/30/four-reasons-why-facebooks-ipo-is-irrelevant/Was Facebook's Q1 a kink in the armor?
  10. I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 couldIt is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.The P/E will most likely be in triple digits. Right now its 90 at $30/share and 90B valulation. (Facebook 2011 profit: $1 billion)Thus with, Facebook currently at a PE of lets say 100, growth rates need to be 100% for the next few years. To put this in another context, Google trades at 18.5x PE. Facebook needs to grow its bottom line 100% for the next 2.5 years to get there. Possible? Sure, but that is quite a feat considering that profits grew only 65% in 2011. Also in Q1 2012, their net income fell 12% to $205 million (which annually would be less than 1B).
  11. i agree the share price is irrelevant. But i also think in the short term that the P/E, growth estimates, and all the other financial mumbo jumbo is irrelevant also. This is a "story" stock and there are a lot of people out there thinking that they can get into the next google or apple when this this comes live and get rich. You have to figure this is the most-hyped IPO in the information era. I think this is a much bigger deal than Google. Had facebook come public 5 years ago i think a lot of people still might not know what it "is". But because of the movie and the hype.. everyone knows this business... and because everyone uses it, they figure it has to be big. I will not be surprised if it hits $100 in the first 48 hours. You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?
  12. no problem with you liking the company personally, but as an investor I don't see how your free music is going to make them or me any moneyPandora is great but its not necessarily "free" music. The free version is ad-supported and they also have an ad-free paid version. They also provide custom streaming service to businesses and have partnered with hardware vendors (TV's, blu-ray players, auto industry, etc).So they do have revenue but its not generating massive growth yet.
  13. the opening price is going to be $28-35.but the first price available to the retail investor could be as high as $70 how much money do you think you can make in the short term after it is marked up 100%? 30 bucks per share? Part of me thinks everybody and their brother is going to login to their etrade account and buy facebook stock, as everyone will want some. Even if its just to then go to facebook and brag that they bought it.If I buy at 70 and sell at 100 within a couple hours, thats the easiest profit ever. But I do agree that it is overvalued, and will start heading down soon after. Or it could be a google/apple and we'll all rue the day we could have bought it for 70 bucks. Share price is irrelevant as it can easily be set to any sticker price (can be manipulated up/down by dilution, buybacks, splits, reverse splits, or in this case IPO based on the number of shares being offered). The only thing worth paying attention is P/E, sensible growth estimates, competition, revenue streams, and long term viability. Facebook's current business model is selling private user data to advertisers to tailor ads to demographics/interests.You also have to consider everyone getting in prior to the secondary market offering is quickly making tons of easy cash. They could be easily getting shares at 10-50% discount before the personal investors have a chance to buy.
  14. That likely will be everywhere within a couple of years and could very well impact all dotcoms.Next day shipping is $5/per item on Prime, not $5 for the whole order. Still a good deal when you're overnighting a kayak for only $5 but a bit different than laid out above.I thought it was 3.99? Did it go up?$4 or $5, still a great bargain. You're probably right though. You can barely ship a pencil these days for $4 and get it within a few days.Prime instant streaming is a big perk too as it works seamlessly in HD quality on my $60 bluray player.Overall, i'm convinced the prime price point is actually too low at this time.
  15. Last I checked the free book perk required a kindle device (not just an app on an iPhone/iPad).Yes of course, its the kindle free book per month. I just meant in general you have more options to read without being tied down to specific devices. I read Moneyball for example on my iPad, Blackberry, and Kindle.