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Liquid Tension

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About Liquid Tension

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  1. Thanks. That is huge. I know speed is not the most important thing, but when your changeup is your best pitch it all unravels when your fastball; is 88. The part that surprised me was he didn't throw his changeup at 80 last year he was still throwing it at 85
  2. Is it true that CC hit 96 in spring training? If her can average 92-9-3 that would be huge to setup his change. Last year, his control was not as sharp but mostly his change was only a few MPH less than his fastball
  3. Your numbers are not correct. he had 13 - 36 in the 2nd half and 10 -39 in the first half, however, he did have 122 more PA's in the first half than the 2nd. more important, his OPS was .727 in the 2nd half and .671 in the first. not a huge difference in a half split % wise, but 56 points of OPS is a decent amount. A catcher who can give you .730 OPS and play good defense is not bad. His biggest split differential was home and away..784 OPS at home and .a putrid .591 away. Unlike tex, at least McCann was not afraid to lay down a bunt when the shift was on and also hit some line drives to the left side. I don't really mind letting it rip in terms of the shift, but not trying to bunt some times is just stupid (as it will not mess up your swing)
  4. I find these discussions interesting...as for Biabreakable's tirade, maybe I am not so insecure to think everyone is being condescending to me, but I think the responses of EBF and Adam seem to be in line. I think Adam is very fair in putting his thoughts out there and I have had some disagreements in the past; mostly about him thinking Elway was better than Marino :-), but nothing was absurd and out of line. Matt Waldman likes to let his eyes be the judge. EBF likes to look at the draft spot of a person, their BMI and then use his eyes, Adam was his own method as do I and others. I take my own eyes into account a lot, but I do use the people I just mentioned as a gauge because maybe I missed something or maybe I have a bias I am unaware of (this is the largest flaw in most scouts game). The point is to make your own mind up but don't be so "arrogant" as to think your way is the only way...shoot Dodd's was ranking Eddie Royal like Jerry Rice going into this week and I joked to my brother how people overrate the 1st few weeks of the year and I would trade Royal if I had him on my team. That isn't to say Royal won't be solid moving forward; the point was the hype was crazy because he caught 5 TD's (I know that is a lot). But I also saw him drop a perfect pass right in his hands on and out pattern...that should happen once a year at the most IMO. EBF wrote about Stephen Hill prior, but one player who may be similar to Hill that I was impressed with was Ted Ginn. Ted had weak armed QB's in his past and he is a guy you need to get deep. That would amount to a once in a blue moon TD big day. With the mobility and arm strength of Cam, the combo along with Steve Smith could give Ted some nice games and will help their NFL team by spreading the defense out. However, the reason I mention Ginn was he ran comeback route to the sideline that impressed me. With his speed if he can consistently run the CB until he turns his hips and then stop and catch the ball with his hands as he did, it will be an easy 1st down every time. I always felt he was a little underutilized as a WR and I know his hands have been inconsistent, but he has shown good hands in the past as well. Guys like that you need to limit their tree, but it can be a strong even if limited tree if done correctly. ETA: Ginn is a dynasty sleeper in a deep league that has not been on anyone's radar. Sorry to ramble on, but EBF, Adam and others, keep delivering your message, as many of us like to either confirm or challenge our own opinions with people they respect!
  5. There are no guarantees in FF. Look at Peyton last year. Any player can get injured. I'd argue that old guys with older bodies and more mileage are more likely to get hurt than youngsters. So that might actually be a point in Luck's favor. If Brees or Brady goes down with another serious injury, their trade value will absolutely plummet. If Luck goes down, he's young enough that he can bounce back and still be in his prime ala Matt Stafford. And Luck is about 6'4" 235. Bigger and stronger than Brady and Brees, for whatever that's worth. I agree that there is clear value in knowing what you get. The problem is that you usually pay a premium for security because it is overvalued. Ironically, the more "proven" a player becomes, the more of his career you have already missed out on if you waited on the sidelines scared to pull the trigger. Look at a guy like Ray Rice. When he was coming into the league, he would've cost you a middle round pick in a dynasty startup draft. Maybe a 6th-8th rounder. After his first season when he didn't get a ton of playing time, his cost would've been roughly the same. After his breakout year, his price would've jumped up into the late 1st-2nd round. And after logging two more elite seasons in 2010 and 2011, he has become widely regarded as one of the most untouchable assets in dynasty FF. The problem in all of this? The longer you wait for someone to "prove" his true value, the more you miss out on his actual career. Rice's prime is halfway over. If you waited for him to prove himself before you acquired him, you not only watched his price increase, but you also missed out on some of his best production. So if you buy Rice now, you are paying a premium based on what he has already accomplished. Yes, he is a safer pick than someone like Trent Richardson, but he is essentially "missing" three seasons from his prime. On the flipside, if you can identify these guys early and get in on the ground floor, you can often get them below their actual value and you also get to enjoy their entire career, and not just a fraction of it. The risk here is that the player in question never takes the next step. There are lots of guys like Beanie Wells, Kevin Jones, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams, and Koren Robinson who never have the career that people expect. That's why I think you have to be very careful in these situations and avoid paying top dollar for prospects until they've genuinely proven themselves unless they're truly special talents. Obviously making that distinction is easier said than done. There's no magical formula that determines who's legit and who isn't. It's a judgment call. Most of the time I would never recommend taking the "next big thing" over a current superstar, but...if you're absolutely certain about someone and you make the right call, you can reap a massive gain in value. I think there are a couple guys in this class who qualify as special talents (Luck and Richardson) and I value them accordingly. I would also take a guy like Martin over more "proven" players because I think he offers more value at a lower cost. As for RGIII, I don't think he's as good as Luck and I think he's overvalued by a half notch right now. I know this was a long time in between posts, but you spent a lot of time to respond and I just read it...I understand your position and it not crazy, but I think you are not valuing the present value enough in your calculations. In your discussion about missing the good years why you wait for being proven; it is accurate, but a player may never become proven. Think about trading Ryan Leaf for Brees? Ronnie Brown as a rookie for MJD etc...You also have to remember that with a QB, being really good does not mean you post great fantasy numbers; so having a guy who is "money" does have value. While the reward IF it works out will be longer, it may not be more fruitful. There are plenty of decent guys, busts and even good ones that still may not be worth 2-3 years of top 3 QB play.
  6. I think you are dismissing the "guarantee" of elite play for 3 years compared to nothing that is guaranteed, especially with injuries sapping careers that may never become anything. There is clear value in knowing what you get. I know injuries could happen to any of them, but that actually puts more value in the guy who is there right now. Also, many FF people think RG3 will be a better fantasy QB...I assume you are not one of them?
  7. ugh...Put him in at 19 cant believe I missed him again...to be fair I put him in at 21 in the last rankings... Just wanted to say great job on all the work!
  8. I think "ever the masochist" would be more apt. I am sorry, but I can't take Evans seriously any longer - for years we heard that this is an elite talent but doesn't produce because he doesn't have a QB who can get the ball to him and/or there is no WR #2 to draw attention from defenses to keep him from getting double teamed. Well, the Bills not only got a half-ways decent QB in Fitzpatrick, but also a capable #2 finally emerged in Stevie Johnson. And contrary to what we would have expected, Evans numbers not only didn't improve, but Johnson became the star receiving threat and enough of one to make Evans expendable. It is true Evans had injury issues, but I honestly don't think if he was completely healthy the results would have been that much different. If you want to continue to be the optimist, fine, but the Evans' glass sure looks half empty to me - I don't think Evans was ever as good as we thought he was. The problem with this analysis is it is sloppy.First, you call Fitzpatrick a "half-ways decent QB." In reality, he is in the bottom third. He was 27th in completion %;.21st in ypa; 22 in QB rating, smack dab between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. So....for the past four years he has had crap at QB. Instead of the 31 or 32nd worst QB he had the 22nd. That's still awful. Second, Johnson hit it off with Fitzpatrick more than Evans. That's because Evans is a deep threat and Johnson is more of an over the middle possession WR. Bottom line is that Buffalo never had the personnel or the strategy to take advantage of Evan's strengths. Four years of half-ways decent" production doesn't prove that he isn't talented. How do you explain the two years he has had over 1000 yards and the one year that he was a top 10 receiver? Clearly he has talent but the team didn't know how to exploit it. The analogy with Glenn is perfect because nay sayers like you said the same thing about him. And he, like Evans, is a deep threat guy who needs a QB who can hit him on the deep patterns. Like Evans, he had had two great years interspersed with a lot of mediocre years. Then he went to a new team with an offense and QB who could use him properly, and he had two more 1000+ years. He also had gone 4 years since having had a decent year before the trade to Dallas, and he was 2 years older at the time of the trade. Mind-blowing Terry Glenn stat that will blow everyone's mind: Terry Glenn ranks in the top 30 in NFL history in receiving yards per game. Seriously- I'm not making that up. I really think Glenn and Galloway are very interesting comparisons to Evans. Both Glenn and Galloway really caused me to re-evaluate when speed guys start to lose a step in the NFL. Glenn and Galloway both posted the highest YPC of their careers at age 32, and they topped 15.0 YPC a combined 7 times at age 30 or older. Galloway averaged a ridiculous 17.8 YPC (2nd highest total of his career) at age 36- in what was one of the greatest age 36 seasons of all time. Bruce kept his speed for quite a while, too. I know maybe not relevant for Glenn in this case but I do want to point out that YPC isn't the best metric for fantasy success. There have been a lot of guys with high YPC who haven't been consistent enough to be fantasy viable. The reality is some guys are deep threats who have inflated YPC as a result. There are guys who simply cannot be anything more than the big play guy and there are guys whose YPC drop significantly when/if the become integral parts of the offense (and thus are asked to do more than just stretch the field). I would go into more detail / pull stats but on my iPad right now. Point is this isn't always the best metric. YPG sure. I'd have to look at the specifics of DVOA but I'm sure like anything else it has inherent biases too. I really feel that Collie will step in and be really productive again. I think the ball will be spread around, but I think Collie and Wayne will be the top wide outs (Clark will get his).
  9. How so? What should they have addressed that they didn't? They drafted what they think is a QB of the future, and put weapons around him to help him succeed / ease him in with a strong running game, keeping Steve Smith, and adding TEs like SHockey and Olsen. They also retained their high profile UFA in Charles Johnson. Sounds to me like someone just bitter about the fantasy prospects of Jonathan Stewart.... Just saying. Bitter? Hardly. I have him on a whopping one dynasty team. I just don't think that it's smart business to pay top dollar for a RB on the backslope of his prime when you're a last place team with holes everywhere. RB is one of the least important positions in the NFL. Hence why perennial winners like the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Ravens, Chargers, and Packers tend to go cheap there. Sure, they might use a late 1st rounder on a good back every once in a while, but you don't generally see them giving a RB a fat contract. Especially a 28 year old one. Carolina is a crap team. A rudderless ship. There is absolutely no chance that they will make the playoffs this season. So rather than wasting money on diminishing commodities like Shockey, Smitty, and D-Will, they should be looking towards the future and assembling the pieces of a team that can compete 2-3 years from now. But there's a reason why they're a last place team. Re-signing D-Will for big money when they had a competent Stewart and Goodson waiting in the wings show that. It's like a last place FF team that trades away all its future rookie picks for Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards, and Steven Jackson. Sure, it might help their record by a couple wins this season, but it's bad management in the long run. I agree! If they would have received a discount for signing DWill then that would make sense, but they paid top dollar for a 28 year old back who has been banged up of late, but is very talented. If they traded Stewart than I could understand, but they have too many other holes to have so much tied up at the RB position.
  10. Actually it is looney short term but makes sense long term IMO
  11. I wanted to chime in on the Bradshaw discussions after I read most of the thoughts... Bradshaw has incredible balance and quick cutting ability. he also has surprising forward leaning power for a lighter guy. I do not think his vision is very good though. Anyone who REALLY watches the Giants plays and does so over and over to check themselves can see that he goes the wrong way a lot. Because he has suck excellent quickness and balance/strength he is able to go the wrong way and still be productive making one guy or even more miss form time to time. He is a guy who sees what is right in front of him and is able to get out of that situation, but sometimes puts himself right back into another situation that is not as favorable as it could be. This compared to a back like LT2 who has his moves and setups down field almost as soon as he touches the ball. The point is Bradshaw sometimes gets out of tough spots and then you say, man he could have had more if he just cut left...He also sometimes just goes the wrong way and it costs him as he can't escape everything. Bradshaw also does not have good top speed, in fact, Jacobs has a better top speed than Bradshaw. Bradshaw does run a lot like Barber though but he is just lighter and a little quicker, but both backs run in the same ferocious style as ADP without the speed ADP has. Bradshaw has a little more middle range speed than Barber and a little less power as well. Barber would look better if the Cowboy OL was better. One last point about Thomas Jones and Jacobs. I know TJ has had some great fantasy seasons, but I think it is pretty clear he is a below average RB. The Jet OL is not as good a run blocking unit as they have been the previous 2 seasons (losing faneca), yet even with that LT2 who looked awful in SD is not getting touched until 3 yards down field compared to avoiding tackles in the backfield in SD last year. They can talk health all they want, but the OL makes backs look MUCH better. TJ can take what is given and give you nothing more than someone else could. His only strength IMO is that he is durable and doesn't fumble and he can run down some time. Jacobs is similar, but he actually has more speed and more power creating more than TJ does. Jacobs though is not as durable as he is easier to hit and is better suited for 10-15 carries a game rather than 20-25. Hope that was useful?
  12. I am not a big fan of this argument. some times certain draft classes pump out alot of good players at one position. Look at the 96 class of WR's. Keyshawn, Harrison, Moulds, Horn, Owens, Glenn, and more im sure im forgetting. How about the 2008 RB class, Felix Jones, Darren Mcfadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Johnny Stewart, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte.I just dont see how Britts future success can be affected by the other WR's who came out in the same draft.agreed, one has nothing to do with the other.
  13. I see the yards per game being thrown out as defining the quality of the receiver, but there are two issues with this in my mind. One, we know that the surrounding cast/situation plays a very large role in the amount of consistent yards a receiver gets and 2) while TD's can most definitely be variable year to year, some players are better TD targets based on their physical nature and size... These 2 situations must be taken into account. I am someone who normally looks at talent and this will eventually rise to the top if they get traded or something, but how far in the future are you looking? 3 years, 4 years? You still have to keep a balance between future and present. Jonathan Stewart has more value in dynasty this year then last year only because I think he is one year away from getting his own starting gig. But, Carolina is an absolute mess right now and this year he is worthless with DWill healthy and probably not that strong even if not as the two of them averaged under 3 yards a carry last week...just awful. Last year when everyone was gushing over Steve Smith (NYG), I was steadfast in my belief that Nicks was the best receiver on the Giants and he was the guy to get long term; of course some people rate the present year at a much higher percentage than others and i was ridiculed. Nicks is a great end zone threat because he is very solid, strong and has huge hands. I said that he reminded me of Boldin, but with more upside; I still agree with this. In fact, my quote was "I think he has a very good chance of being the greatest WR in Giant history." I was not hear for the SSOG discussions and I respect his statistical analysis, but you can't just yards per game as the be all end all, in fact, the 2 factors I mention are very important as well IF they are an issue (many times they are within an acceptable range of "normal")
  14. FWIW, I have White as my #5 dynasty WR (Fitz, Andre, Calvin, VJax, then White). Colston is hovering around the 9-12 range. White's more talented and in a more stable situation, but there's not a whole lot of difference between the two. I would be interested in upgrading from Colston to White, but I definitely wouldn't give up too much to do so. Maybe a WR in the 30-40 range. If my fantasy team was CJ3, ADP, MJD, Rice, Gore, DWill, Turner, Britt, Bernard Berrian, and Ashley Lelie... I would still trade Kenny Britt for Jonathan Stewart in a tenth of a millisecond. IMO, turning down that offer would be like turning down someone who offered you Ray Rice in exchange for your Mike Sims-Walker. Britt, like Sims-Walker, is a quality WR who has showed talent and has good upside. Prospects like that are cheap and common. You don't pass on a difference maker at RB to hold on to a nice WR prospect. I never meant to imply that Jacobs was, for his career, an ineffective back. I meant that Jacobs was an ineffective back LAST YEAR, and yet Bradshaw couldn't shake him. Jacobs averaged a pathetic 3.7 yards per carry. That might have been a result of injury, or age, or whatever, but the fact is that Jacobs wasn't getting it done, for whatever reason... and yet Jacobs still got 225 carries to Bradshaw's 163. That's cause for concern.Jacobs is only 27 so it is not his age. he was banged up a lot last year and yes Bradshaw was more effective last year, but the Giant OL was not very good in straight running situations. Bradshaw also had his lowest YPC average of the past 4 years, but he was still a lot better than Jacobs. That being said, Bradshaw got the 3rd down room where Jacobs was the short yardage guy.I think both are effective, but the Giant OL was not good last year and Jacobs was banged up a lot. I would not be too excited about any Giant RB, but if I had to guess who the best fantasy back would be it would still be Jacobs.
  15. Bradshaw's a 24 year old 7th round RB who hasn't had 15 carries in a game since 2007 (career high: 17), hasn't ever topped 1000 yards from scrimmage, and has found himself mired on the depth chart behind the mirage that was Derrick Ward and a brutally ineffective Brandon Jacobs. He's produced well, which might mean he was good, or it might mean that the line in front of him is good (judging by Derrick Ward, I think the latter is more likely than the former). As of right now, I'm not convinced that he has the talent to be a regular starter. I'm not convinced the coaching staff views him as the type of RB that can be a regular starter (remember the lesson of Mewelde Moore- the fact that Bradshaw never tops 15 carries is very damning in that context). I'm sure, however, that there's some owner in every league who *IS* convinced of at least one of those two facts. As a result, if I own Bradshaw, I'm looking to find that owner and unload him for more than he's worth.Long story short... I'm not convinced that any of those RBs are ever going to break out of the cycle of RBBC, but I am convinced that one of my leaguemates has a favorite, so if I owned a piece of the Giants running game, I'd be looking around to see what I could get for it. I just had to comment on the brutally ineffective Jacobs comment. he averaged 5 yards a carry for 2 years while being the short yardage guy??? the Giant OL was really good for those 2 years, but last year the Giant OL was very weak. When Jacobs is healthy or even playing he has been effective? Last year Jacobs was banged up even when he played and was not the same as the 2 previous years. This may be an ongoing problem, but saying he was ineffective is just wrong.