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Voice Of Reason

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  1. http://blog.fightmetric.com/2011/03/sanchez-vs-kampmann-official-ufc.htmlpoor Kampmann, should have wins over Diego and Shields in his last 2. compustrike is the discrepancy even more. Strange how fightmetric has Kampmann landing 79 or somehting, and compustrike gives kampmann 97 landed strikes. pretty big discrepancy. I know both have Kampmann winning though. I still feel like weeping with some of these fights. And of course i loaded up on Kampmann before the fight, chasing some of my Stevenson loss (my bad there, should have really looked at the match-up more and not rushed it. Joe Daddy has fallen far from grace).ETA: http://compustrike.com/wp/?page_id=380 perhaps because i also backed kampmann, but i felt this fight pretty much justified betting on him.i actually charted a few fights and found my numbers were often a bit different than FM, but 79-97 is a lot. looking at the FM numbers, in predominantly stand-up rounds, it seems like fighters who just throw, not land, more power shots tend to win rounds. the only fight that doesn't meet that criteria was Penn vs Edgar I.
  2. The Hitman got Leonard Garcia'd in a bad way. Horrible trend in MMA. Love that i had good money on both of the wrong sides of these. Ariel Helwanni said it very good on Vs. post-show when he said the worst part for Kampmann is that he didn't do anything wrong in this fight, or there is nothing to look back and necessarily fix. You have to love Diego going 0-12 with takedowns for the first 2 rounds, Kampmann more then doubling strikes with a broken hand in the 3rd, and still losing http://blog.fightmetric.com/2011/03/sanchez-vs-kampmann-official-ufc.htmlpoor Kampmann, should have wins over Diego and Shields in his last 2.
  3. Grabbed Sakara based on the principal of the line last night when i put a few others in. It did feel like throwing money away, but the idea that a guy who is 4-0 going up against Sakara, who has been the joke of the UFC for a bit, but has looked better in his last few fights, was too much to pass up. Surprising the line opened at -110 for each, guess i have to find another book or 2 at some point hereETA:also played Kampmann and Stevenson. will likely try a few parlays and have Mizugaki, Bowles, and Yang in some of thoseNot sure if you're set up at 5 Dimes, but Weidman by 3 round decision +250 is an incredible price for a guy favored at -210 over there, given his most logical path to victory is a 3 round lay n' pray. it's +290 now, good callI don't quite like that bet. Sakara is such a front runner who seemingly gives up if he isn't dominating after a few mins. He's only been to two 3 round decisiosn.
  4. Kinda forgot about Thursday's card as well. Not sure why Kampmann is only -135, he seems more than capable of doing to Diego what Jon Hathaway did. And even if Diego can get a hold of and get it to the ground, Martin did pretty well vs a better grappler in Shields.
  5. this is the best scoring here. i think it will be sometime before we see judges utilize the 10-10 round, but that is likely the best score for that 2ndthe aussie judges threw out some 10-10 and 10-8's out there for this card. i think it mostly an american judges who refuses to scoring round 10-10 or use 10-8s. i'm pretty sure dana went ballistic because of the draw and because he hates Fitch, in Vegas this fight goes 29-28 Penn as two judges gave Fitch a 10-8 for round 3, so there is no way he saw this cards judging as a good thing
  6. 10-9 BJ, 10-10, 10-8 Fitch 29-28 Fitch imo really liked BJ's gameplan in this fight. I've thought BJ was perhaps the best top position grappler in the UFC and he show how amazing he was by taking Fitch's back each time he got on top. BJ being able to take down Fitch and defending Fitch's takedowns so well really impressed me. Fitch is extremely savvy using the cage to slip out of BJ's backmount twice. Fitch's work rate in the 3rd was incredible. I thought this was a really good main event, but sad that I think BJ is pretty close to retiring.
  7. Skipping Reinhardt, but adding Big Head Jewtuszko -125And I haven't heard anybody here discuss Fitch-BJ. Everybody seems to think Fitch has this in the bag, but i haven't been impressed with Fitch his last few fights. Maybe he wasn't motivated, but I still think BJ has some of the best takedown defense in MMA, and Fitch's not the best with takedowns. He can hold anybody down with the best of them, but I think BJ may be able to fend off Fitch's takedowns, at least for a round hopefully 2. I also think Fitch will want to stand with BJ, where i think BJ will be quicker on his feet. I will be playing BJ at +170, but the question is how muchFitch doesn't need to get BJ on the ground in the first and early 2nd round, if BJ is defending takedowns or gets pressed into the cage, BJ is going to get seriously fatigued from carrying Fitch's weight. BJ really is going to have to use his boxing to keep distance and keep his back off the cage, even then I have my doubt about BJ maintaining that much movement for 2 rounds. Once on the ground, I think BJ will be able to get butterfly guard and push Fitch off. BJ is really good at getting back to his feet from his guard. BJ is likely the best top position grappler in MMA, so if he someone gets on top of Fitch, I can easily see him passing to mount and possibly getting Fitch's back. For the last UFC card in Australia, who were the judges? Did they fly in some of the same idiots they use in NV or CA and/or did they use local judges? If they do locals, I could see BJ being a better play. Aussies may be not credit wrestling and "control" as much as Americans because of the lack of wrestling there and familiarity with JMMA and PRIDE.
  8. Fighters are able to pass the state commission drugs tests because they know ahead of time exactly when they will be tested and the quality of the test are often poor. Athletic commissions have poor quality drug tests because of money issues. The states cannot discriminate between a UFC card and a regional promotion in quality of testing, so everyone gets the same lower quality test.BJJ competitions in Brazil very rarely have drug testing, unless than has changed in the past year, so is very much part of the culture there. As is likely was in PRIDE and fights in general in Japan. Americans are probably much better at getting around the American rules regarding PEDs, but so many fighters train in the US that it is likely pretty common knowledge how to get around testing for effectively all fighters.
  9. While I very much agree that most of SF HW GP, and most MMA fighters, are on some type of PED, especially Brazilians with a BJJ background as steroid use is pretty much common there. But the "forbidden psychological technology" is the greatest excuse ever.
  10. Some random thoughts: I thought it was a bad stoppage particularly because of the magnitude of the decision, not the worst in the world, but it would be on par with a ref giving stopping Carwin-Lesnar or Edgar-Maynard. Even if Fedor did make 205, I think he'd get worked over pretty good by the top of that division. I don't think of that as a knock on Fedor, but on the lack of skill at the HW. Strikeforce is such a joke. AO is going to wreck everyone in the Gran Prix, thus leaving him with no challengers. SF can't promote him heavily because he's going to split time fighting for them and Dream and K-1. So the potential of having the best fighter in the world is going to pay off very little for SF.
  11. BJ and Serra were guys a weight class below GSP. Fitch, Koscheck, Alves, and Hughes are certainly not, and I really don't think Hardy could possibly make 155. Maia and Leities could possibly make 170. Silva fights at 205 are a bit overrated for this matchup because the guys he fought there do not use a style that would use their size advantage. Hell, BJ took Machida to a decision @ 205 in a fight Machida wasn't particularly dominating. Silva has lost his last 5 full rounds vs elite wrestlers in the UFC. He was able to finish Henderson in the 2nd, but Henderson is notorious for having terrible cardio and falling in love with his standup and Sonnen sub defense is particularly bad for a top level MMA fighter. GSP and his camp are probably the best in MMA at creating a gameplan and sticking to it. Couple this with the fact that GSP's cardio and overall grappling is much better than those two, I really don't see a hole in GSP's game that I think Anderson could regularly support. Of course Anderson can finish him on the feet, but I'm pretty sure that GSP knows this and will put himself in position to make this unlikely.
  12. i think a quite legitimate concern would GSP's cardio if he adds on 5-10 lbs of muscle, although cutting less weight probably benefits him
  13. Edgar vs Penn is pretty much a good example a wrestler fighting a guy at weight class above who is a non-wrestler, as Frankie is a much more natural FW than LW.
  14. GSP @ +190 vs Anderson is a steal. Shogun @ +135 vs Jones is probably a good deal as well. I am really curious as to why people don't think GSP can run a GnP clinic on Anderson. GSP has been taking down elite level wrestlers at 170 with regularity and his been holding them down and beating on them seemingly at will. GSP @ 190 is similar to the odds Sonnen would get in a rematch, except that I think GSP is a much better fighter than Chael, better standup, better grappler, better GnP. I won't go so far as to say he's a better wrestler than Sonnen, as I'm sure that Cheal works him in a straight wrestling match, but his effective wrestling in MMA can't be too far off. 15 lbs isn't going to make that big of a difference for a guy who typically doesn't overpower fighters. The weights will probably be even closer on at fight time as GSP is probably going to substantially bulk up by the time of the fight.
  15. I love GSP but I have no idea how he would beat Silva. Definitely not in the standup and he isn't going to ground'n'pound him out or submit him. So it would have to be laying on him for 3 of 5. Just don't see it happening.Have you not seen GSP fight against any decent striker?
  16. i agree that Silva gets bored with the sport, but that is probably common among people who are naturally much better than everyone at something. i guess you don't see this much in more traditional sports because they are developed to a point where effectively no one can get by on mostly natural ability. randy moss is the best example from other sports who can get by mostly on his natural abilities. i think this is fairly common in mma as i see a lot of fighters who are not mentally strong enough keep focus and do what they know is best, silva just happens to be one of the few who rarely has to pay for those mistakes
  17. just re-watched Nogueria vs Bader, and some interesting observations that may play into his fight vs Jones 1. Bader's cardio is awful, he gassed in the first round 2. Bader had trouble with gauging distance vs lil Nog, this was fairly obvious so I think Jackson and co will make sure to take advantage of this with Jones' reach 3. Bader doesn't shoot a deep double leg or single leg, he kind of shoots in and initiates a clinch, this could be a good way to neutralize Jones' speed if he can press him against the cage, but Jones's Greco background and judo makes this a bad idea if Bader can't press him against the cage. overall, i was likely wrong earlier when i said i thought there was value on Bader, i'm sipping on the Jones kool-aid now. Also, am I missing something or is Silva @ -225 seems like stealing. I thought the UFC was scared to let Vitor fight anyone as he may lose and ruin a potential title contender and now he is getting the odds that I think Sonnen would get in a remwatch with Silva, seems crazy to me,
  18. wife just bought "Doggie Lunchies" from Whole Foods. Cannot find a review of this brand online. Ingredient list is: is this any good?
  19. Well, i got some nice cash on each individually, and I think i'm already in good shape with Abe Wagner from last night, but this may be the last time I bet on some guy who has had one fight in 9 years (didn't know that until after i bet ).And the Strikeforce commentating almost makes it impossible to watch these shows. Sure, Herschel is in impressive shape, but they go WAAAYY over the top. it really is awful, that coupled with the non-reaction shots of the crowd after Lawler tapped made this fight seem really insignificant
  20. Link. And LOL at a fighting style of "striking". Why not just say "being tall"? really sad that in his last few fights, Timmy brings more entertainment per minute than anyone in mma.the voice "who finished him faster, wagner or fedor?" lololololol
  21. i saw Bader talking about this in an interview, it is insane he has more of a reach then Struve. i don't know how that is even possible with Struve having 6 or 7 inches of height on him. And i agree with you guys that Jones should take this, but the betting line on this fight is insane. No way it should favor Jones as much as it is. i am not a Bader fan, but i can't remember seeing him in trouble in any of his fights. with it being a 3 round fight, i think it is possible that Bader can lay and pray for at least one round. it is a fight i am definitely interested in watching. the card itself is a very good one, does anybody think Belfort has a chance against Silva? i think there are a couple of good shows coming up, i'm not a Fedor nut-hugger, but loking forward to seeing his fight against Big Foot I'd say Belfort has one of the best chances out of anyone (although it is still just a punchers chance). Silva hasn't fought anyone who can hit as hard and as fast as Belfort and whether it was because of the rib or not, Sonnen's slow ### got to Silva's chin a couple times on the feet. Not saying I think Belfort will win, but out of Silva's previous UFC fights (Maia, Griffin, Cote, Irvin, Hendo, Cote etc..) none have had both speed and power... and really looking at it now, he hasn't fought anyone who I'd say had fast hands. Hendo, Irvin and Cote have power but they are slow.I think -250 is a really good line for Anderson. Sonnen has success against Anderson by rushing him early and making Silva uncomfortable so perhaps Vitor can do the same. However, everyone else seems to be much more hesitant than to rush at the best striker in MMA. It is really foolish, but seemingly everyone allows Silva to take his time, gauge his opponent's timing and rhythm and then attack. Vitor is really good at surprising his opponents with his speed and once hurt he's one of the best finishers in MMA, but the parlay of Vitor actually maximizing his chances by being extremely aggressive early AND putting Anderson away is fairly remote. If Vitor doesn't put Anderson away early or put a massive beating on him, the fight is pretty much Anderson's to win however he wants to. I cannot imagine Vitor having the stamina to push the pace (i.e. make it a brawl) vs Anderson like Sonnen did. If the pace slows down, Anderson is light years ahead of Vitor in terms of striking. My guess is that Vitor's camp tries to emulate Sonnen's gameplan. Vitor's wrestling and top game are pretty good (former ADCC champ) but I think he lacks the stamina and ability to remained focused 25 minutes to do so. The cumulative factors of Vitor's flakiness, Anderson's chin, and stamina lead me to believe that Anderson should win easily.
  22. Aside from the fact that I'm pretty sure SF is going to give Herschel another extremely winnable fight, I like those bets. When I first saw Lawler vs Jacare, I instantly thought Jacare should win this. Once I thought more about it, I really like Lawler in this fight. Jacare's wrestling is really good for a BJJ fighter, but it is not lights out. Jacare' tends to run out of gas in the 2nd round of most fights, and he doesn't put himself in the best position to win fights often. I also the drug testing for fights in the US effects him as well. As for Wagner vs Sylvia, Abe seems to be a can, but Sylvia may be one as well at this point of his career as well. At over 4:1, I'd certainly roll the dice that he is.
  23. I think the line too far in Jones' favor. Not saying I think Bader is going to win, but he's more likely than the odds say he is. Jones has far too many question marks on him to give such good odds.