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About Redwes25

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  1. Please don’t do this here. If want to talk theories like you are saying go to PSF threads.
  2. I voted by mail and still leave here.
  3. Think items 1) and 2) in that post are reasons I feel better (I posted those below for ease). Polling errors are usually around 3ish. Biden is up 7.7% in RCP averages right now. On the second point there are lots less undecideds and undecideds went heavily to Trump in 2016. My third reason is I understand pollster have adjusted their polling to try and address issues in 2016. Will they reduce the risk? Who knows but at least it is an attempt. I still think there is a chance that Trump can win. Think it is smaller chance then in 2016 given above but who knows, Also, I am just some guy sitting at my computer trying to predict the future on a fantasy football message board so honestly no one should listen to me. Items from old link: 1) 3-ish point polling errors are pretty common. Clinton's lead is 3-4 points in the public polling consensus (last few days helped a bit). 2) Undecideds are MUCH higher than normal. So risk of a polling error -- in either direction -- is higher than usual.
  4. Partisan polls are always released with a reason. Sure feels to me like the drive behind all the releases right now is to energy the base that he can win but they need to get out an vote. I don't see the same stream of Democratic released partisan polls.
  5. From RealClear Politics - differences between 16 and 20. Biden definately looks like he is in a better position. 2020 vs. 2016 2020 2016 Spread Top Battlegrounds D +3.6 D +1.6 Biden +2.0 RCP National Average D +7.7 D +2.0 Biden +5.7 Favorability Ratings D +19.4 D +4.5 Biden +14.9
  6. Think it is that polling error was in Midwest so feel burned by it. Honestly, AZ has been red for so long (until very recently) maybe I am being optimistic but I think Biden wins there.
  7. Interesting article about importance of Arizona. For some reason I just feel good about Arizona. Can’t put a real reason on it thought.
  8. The chart you showed is an improvement for Trump from last presidential election. That seems like fiction to me - No way does he pick up 4 states that went to Hilary last election. That is why it is fiction.
  9. We shall see how this plays out. I think Trump has a shot to win but he is the underdog given all information we have seen. I actually think Biden supporters are more realistic here and are not discounting a Trump win. Seems like Trump supporters on the other hand can only see the results on the election one way.
  10. Part of polling error is undecided and how they break as a poll makes assumptions around undecides, etc.. Big reason for polling error last time was basically all undecideds brook towards Trump. I think there are a lot less undecideds this time around. Also, the main reason for polling error was they didn't take into eduction into how folks vote. Almost all major polls are now adjusting for that factor. Could we have a situation where everything repeats and we have to discount everything by 3 percent (that is possible) but think unlikely.
  11. Leg routine I do is just lots and lots of squats and lunges. Do biking for cardio and general fitness. I think a few good hikes this fall would be a great family workout. Will need to schedule something.
  12. Polling errors happen both ways. Yes, we could have a polling error that repeats 2016 but don't forget that 2012 had a polling error the other way. People just forget about it since before the polling error it had a slight Obama lead compared to where his victory ended up.
  13. Ok, I feel some coolness in the air which has gotten me to think about my true love (skiing). I had kept up working out for the start of Covid but feel off the band wagon around end of July so need to get back into and ready for ski season because Covid is not stopping me from getting on the slopes. Do folks have a work out plan they use. I typically do some cardio and then start doing some leg blasters that are torture. I started on the bike this past week end and plan to start the leg routine I have used in past on Monday - it is torture. On to more interesting topics, anyone planning any trips? I think I am shooting for a week in February in Northeast. I don't think I can get the whole fam on a plane this year to out west. No idea if annual guys ski trip to Breck is happening this year. That may be a more wait in see approach.