Brisco54

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About Brisco54

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  1. I concede the semantic point.
  2. The daily polls ranged from 35 to 72 votes daily, not five to seven so this was more of a consensus than you seem to understand. I, for one, do not claim any level of expertise in evaluating fantasy talent. Instead, I have long been a practitioner of the market value approach to dynasty. I trust the consensus more than any individual ranking, including my own. (FYI, this is also a path to success in the real market. Index funds outperform the vast majority of professional advisors, managed funds and individual investors over time.) you are correct that markets are always fluctuating, but I do not think they change enough to make data to become obsolete overnight. I used the final polls we created as a group for months. My market value approach works for me, so I will stick with it.... just as I assume you will stick with your condescending arrogance when talking to strangers on message boards. Good luck with that!
  3. No such thing as consensus dynasty rankings? Then I guess the months I spent last off-season doing daily slot by slot polls to create a consensus ranking on this board is a false memory. Old age catching up with me I guess.
  4. You are right to move a WR to add youth, but I would counter with a 2019 2nd instead of a 1st. In IDP, the difference between 1.8 and 1.11 is not as significant as in non-IDP... but the difference between a undetermined 1st and undetermined 2d in 2019 could be huge.
  5. Unless its a start up draft, any pick in a competitive dynasty league after the second round has almost zero value. By the mid third round there is no longer any real consensus on value, so the player you want is likely to be there a round later or even on the wire at the end of the draft. If you feel that Powell is worth adding off the wavier wire, than you make that trade since you are basically giving up nothing.
  6. Since when is a single line delivered in a dead pan voice "gushing"? C'mon guys... if he had said Bill Belichek was wearing a nice sweatshirt in the same voice/tone, it would have had the same relevance to the game, and yet not have caused any of the brouhaha in this thread. I am not a Timberlake/pop fan, but I think it would have been more odd for a color commentator not to say anything about the performance. The half time show is now a major part of the superbowl event... (its not just "Up with People" every year any more). Using the Jessica Alba metaphor... CC did not only comment on the satin sheets... but included a comment about the sheets within about 200 comments about the event. The JT show was nearly ten minutes of unbroken fireworks. Tell me... if CC had said (in deadpan voice) the game was almost as exciting as the grand finale of a fireworks show... would everyone still be all hot and bothered?
  7. Then again.. Barkely could be the next Trent Richardson and 1.6 could be Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. Maybe we are looking at different data for Adams? Two of his four seasons he has played all 16 games and he has missed a total of 5 games in 4 season. His 8.3 targets per game place him at WR6 for 2017, behind only Dhop, Brown, Fitz, Landry & Keenan. His target share was 19.8 in 2016 and increased to 23.8 in 2017. (22% target share is normally the cut off for elite production.) He followed the typical WR developmental pattern of a year three spike. I get that folks want more total yards, but I fail to see any indicators that his performance levels will decline in the foreseeable future. Hindery has him at WR8 for dynasty and I feel that is about right. Any young top ten wr is fantasy gold in my book.
  8. At this point in time, I I would sit on my hands. Dynasty is like the stock market... you want to buy low and sell high. By my count, you have only seven players that any significant trade value. (To me to have any significant trade value, the player must be worth at least 2.12. Per Hindery's chart, 2.12 is worth 4 points and you only have seven players worth that much or more): Dak, McCoy, Howard, Thomas, Watkins, ARob, and Funchess. (Graham is the only other player that is even close with 3 points) Of those seven, two are currently trading below historic value (Watkins & ARob), four are young proven players that seem to be trending up (Dak, Howard, Thomas and Funchess) and then there is McCoy. It seems natural to want to move McCoy, but now is simply not the time to do that. The absolute worst time to trade an older player is offseason predraft. If you are going to do anything this offseason other than just use your draft picks to replace dead roster slots like Gore, I would trade those picks (plus any of the players not among the seven above) to acquire proven players with significant trade value.
  9. According to Hindery's dynasty trade value chart the first trade is you giving up 47 to get 43 and the second is you giving up 41 to get 40. That said, I think Hindery overvalues 1.1. The pick's value in inflated by the fact that the last three consensus 1.1s seem to have lived up to draft slot (Gurley, Elliot, Fournette). But I still remember the trend before that. The three consensus 1.1s prior to that were Watkins, Bernard, and Trent Richardson... none of which have lived up to draft slot. BTW, the consensus #1 the prior year was Mark Ingram, who was dumped by most that drafted him well before he became fantasy relevant. I saw him on many a waiver wire prior to his resurgence, so you cannot count him as a hit either. Before Ingram it was Ryan Matthews and before that was Michael Crabtree and before that was Darrin McFadden. That means that, prior to the recent Gurley/Zeke/Fournette run, only one of the seven consensus #1 rookies from 2008 to 2014 ever had a season that was as good as Adams gave you last year... and that was missing two games and without his starting QB. Personally, if I had Adams, I might turn down and offer of 1.1 straight up. The dude averages 8 targets a game! There is no way I would ever give up fantasy gold (a young, proven, 1st option WR in a prolific passing offense) plus a consensus top 15 RB that already has a #1RB, #6RB and #13 RB overall finishes and is only 25 himself for 1.1 and 1.12. Even more, I would never trade Adams just to move up 5 slots. Finally, as a general rule, the offseason is the worst time to trade for draft picks and the best time to trade for players. Everyone is looking for a shiny new toy and bored with the proven performers they already possess... so the draft pick market is inflated and the player market is where you can get real value. The best example I can give you for this was during the offseason prior to the 2015 draft, I was able to acquire DHop for 1.7 plus 2.7. I have a runner up followed by two consecutive championships in that league thanks to the other owner wanting the new and shiny.
  10. Legitimate counter-points, both. On the Gore issue however, I do not think history agrees with your assertion. Age in RBs normally follows one of two general patterns... the fall off a cliff to immediate irrelevance or the gradual decline. Gore's receiving stats reflect two different (and relatively consistent) plateaus bordered by losing Smith as his QB. The post Smith range is 2012-2017. If age was the culprit, his receiving scores at the end of the range should be less than at the beginning. That didn't happen. In 2012 Gore had 28/234. Very similar to the 29/245 he had in 2017.. and both numbers are very close to the average of 26/212 he had for the entire range set. Don't get me wrong.. I am not saying this proves the loss of Smith was the catalyst to the change in plateau... only that it probably eliminates age as the answer.
  11. That's a pretty safe prediction... but not really germane to the conversation. The question is not, Does Alex Smith turn RB30 into RB5?, but rather does he turn the RB30 into an RB20. 40 extra ppr points over a season can do that. I have found that, in experienced, competitive leagues, you make your money in the mid to late rounds when you value some piece of data that others have missed or discounted.
  12. You bring up a good point. Gore's reception and receiving yards were cut in half after Smith moved to KC. From 2006 to 2010 he averaged 51 rec and 430 yards ... from 2012 to 2017 those numbers dropped to 26 and 212 (almost exactly half!)... while his rushing yards remained comparatively constant. However, with the notable exception of 2013, Charles' receiving numbers were about the same with and without Smith. Maybe it is just the talent and system around him or maybe his style of play does give RBs a healthy bump. I know I now have more interest in the WASH backfield then I used to.
  13. There is another thread to discuss whether or not the Smith trade was good or bad for the two teams involved. I am more interested in the fantasy implications, since I am not a close fan of either team. I have never owned Alex Smith so I never paid much attention to him prior to this trade. Now that I went back and looked at the stats a pretty interesting correlation showed up. In the ten season where Alex Smith started the majority of games for his team (all but 2005 and 2007), the starting RB had very good or dominant ppr seasons.. Take a look: 2006 – Gore – 1695/8 + 61/485/1 = 333 PPR points #6RB 2009 – Gore – 1120/10 + 52/406/3 = 282.6 #5RB 2010 – Gore (11 games) – 853/3 + 46/452/2 = 206.2 (300.3 over 16 games) prorated #4RB 2011 – Gore - 1211/8 + 17/114/0 = 197.4 #14RB 2012 – Gore – 1214/8 + 28/234/1 = 226.8 #10RB 2013 – Charles – 1287/12 + 70/693/7 = 382 #1RB 2014 – Charles – 1033/9 + 40/291/5 = 256.4 #7RB 2015 – (Charles/Ware/West) – 1401/14 + 47/396/2 = 322.7 Starter was #1 RB if combined 2016 – Ware (14 games) – 921/3 + 33/447/2 = 199.8 (228.3) #15RB 2017 – Hunt - 1327/8 + 53/455/3 = 297.2 #4RB That's 8 of 10 top ten RB seasons and the other two are still 14 and 15 place finishes and 5 top five finishes... WOW 50% of the time Smith has been the start for the season, his RB has finished in the top 5 overall, 80% of the time in the top 10 overall and 100% of the time in the top 15. And that's with 5 different RBs over those ten seasons. Ok.. I get that this is just correlation, not causation. (And I get that proration of stats (2010 &2016) is not a great statistical practice; and I also get that the 2015 combined stats of the three RBs to start inflated those figures, but I am pretty sure if I data mined to extract out all stats from runs when the player was not the starter, it would still safely be in the top 5.) But still.... WOW!
  14. Bumped up because of no response so far.
  15. I was there with you on Jordy, and I can totally see how you reached your conclusion on Rodgers, but gotta disagree on Keenan Allen. Not all injuries are indicia of frailty/faulty technique/inadequate training. In my opinion, he had one relevant prior injury back in August... the ACL tear from 2016. This is not hindsight... there are numerous threads back in August where many knowledgeable dynasty folks talked about the fact that he was not an injury risk. One thing I promise to do in 2018 is to continue to Focus on the head coaches and what they do (more than what they say). I grabbed Burkhead off the wire late preseason when I learned it was Belichek that wanted him brought to NE... Bill plays "his" guys. When I heard that all Payton did with Kamara predraft was go through the whole route tree, I figured he had a very bright PPR future. When I heard Harbaugh originally wanted to draft Collins and that he had tried multiple times to get other RBs despite having a few names on the roster, I knew to pick him up off the wire soon after the ravens singed Collins. That's the good. Now the bad. Don't get too preoccupied with Opportunity. If the player has not shown elite talent at some point, then they are not worth much, even when given an ideal opportunity. I wasted early waiver wire priority on Kerwyn Williams after DJ went down... I drafted TWest too early (Like 7th round when he really should have been 12th) Don't miss out on talent just because of same team/position roster conflict. I had Rams WR Sammy Watkins in dynasty so I passed on adding Cooper Kupp even though I loved him at draft time. Trade Players you Don't Trust, Even if Everyone Thinks You Are Crazy to do So. At some point last season I lost my trust in Amari Cooper. When he did well, I was relieved rather than pleased. When you have a player like that (high ranked but you don't trust them) for your own emotional wellbeing, make the trade. Stay Away from your NFL Team. No matter how objective we try to be, we will never look at our own team's players fairly. We are destined to over or under value them. Better to just stay away.