Brisco54

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About Brisco54

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  1. Agreed... but I still think he is a pretty strong hold.
  2. See the thread about single possession losses/wins... per that Cincy should pick up 4 more wins this season... 10-6 seems to be the mean right now for predicting the Bengals finish. Is that a playoff spot? Dunno.
  3. Dunno... what does it mean to be "facist"? On my part, I am on this page and others for a break from the stresses of the real world... so I frequently let slide things like editing my posts... its why I also like it when players with impossible to spell last names get nicknames (whoever came up with TJH deserves a beer).
  4. I think this discussion along with the Hill and Conley threads show that the KC offense is incredibly volatile this year after the Maclin release with the only safe bet being that Kelce is gonna get his. I think that, barring injury, one of Ware, Hunt or Hill is gonna finish with a top 20 overall fantasy season. Yes, I know I am throwing 2 RBs and one WR into the same discussion, but I think a lot of Hill's game supplants/competes with portions of the run game. Reid seems to be on a crusade for quickness and speed this offseason. As anyone can glean from my posts, my money is on Hill. Assuming health for all players, I predict that Hill is a top 12 WR (WR1), and Hunt and Ware both turn out to be RB 2/3s.
  5. I think its Smith's limitations that counter-intuitively favor Hill in the short term. Putting on my tinfoil hat for a second, remember the scene in moneyball where they traded a player just to force the manager to play Hatteberg? I would not put it past Reid to trade Maclin to force Smith to look Hill's direction. Reid seems to me to be a huge Hill fan... I see a lot of quick slants followed by a post as soon as the safeties start to bite on the slant (Yes, Smith can throw the post... especially when its nearly impossible to overthrow Hill). No, Hill is not built for a lot of over the middle contact, but video shows that he is pretty good at avoiding the brunt of most hits. One edit... my opinion above does not prevent Conley from being a great hold/lottery ticket. If either Smith or Hill fail, I think Conley would jump to the WR3 conversation overnight.
  6. Fair critique... but the triple post was entirely accidental... as I mentioned in one of the deleted posts, my computer kept saying the posting failed and then all of a sudden they all showed up. As far as calling out Jeff... I confess I was using him as a target of opportunity... this offseason the dynasty crowd has been complaining about a lack of dynasty support and I wanted to give credit for the appearance of effort in the updated rankings, but also comment on the need for the updates to be real updates. Player values are fluid and are at least subject to possible change with each new piece of news. For the new ranking updates to be useful to the community, the staff should contemplate at least the major news stories and how they affect player value. Jeff is not the only one to post a new update without seeming to consider the latest news, his example was just the most egregious and served as the best exemplar of the problem (Sorry Jeff). The purpose of the post was to alert FBG that when we requested more active dynasty rankings by the staff, we were looking for the same complete analysis for each update and not just a token change attached to a new date. Maybe I am remembering things wrong, but I could have sworn we used to get a regular article that identified the specific changes (movement) in the dynasty rankings. Why did that stop?
  7. error... dp
  8. error... dp... it kept saying it wasn't posting, so I kept retrying.. turns out it was. Sorry all.
  9. First, kudos to the FBG staff for updating their dynasty rankings more regularly the last month. Second, I gotta ask if all of you are actually updating your lists or just cutting and pasting without making more than one or two spot changes? The genesis of this question is that I have been trying to track how the release of Maclin affects the dynasty market value of Tyreek Hill. I was very surprised when Jeff updated his rankings on Wednesday (first update after the Maclin release) , but left Tyreek Hill as the 69th rated dynasty WR with the prerelease ( dated May 23rd) rationale that he might not get many targets. If this was a full update... Jeff, can you please explain your rationale that the declared #1 WR in an NFL offense heading into his sophomore year merits a #69 wr ranking? Unless you feel he is about to be benched, I think I would rank a warm body like Markus Wheaton higher than 69th if he was the WR#1 for an NFL team.
  10. For the teams in 2016, shouldn't the Cardinals and Eagles also be on your list of teams with positive point differentials and losing records and Tamps added to the teams with a winning record but negative point differential? I feel like I must be misreading you, so sorry in advance if I am... but are you saying that in 2016 there were the same number of positive differential/losing record teams as there had been in the prior decade, combined? "...from 2006-2015, there were only 5 times where a team had a positive point differential on the season but a losing record." 56 Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1) 36 Philadelphia Eagles (7-9) 21 Buffalo Bills (7-9) 15 New Orleans Saints (7-9) 10 Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1)
  11. This ups both his redraft and dynasty value in my eyes. For redraft, you always want players in a contract year... for dynasty, the two complaints about Sammy have been injuries and offense... injuries are still a concern but as far as offense, either they find a way to make things work in Buff to justify a franchise tag OR he gets to move to a team that will be able to use him. Win win to me..
  12. I am operating with the idea that he will start at some point in 2017 because he is a 1st round draft pick and they spent a lot to trade up to get him. The last 1st round QB to not start a game his rookie year? Brady Quinn and that was ten drafts ago in 2007. In the last ten drafts there have been 26 QBs selected in the first round. All but Quinn started at least one game, and of the remaining 25, only Lynch, Manziel, Locker, and Tebow were not the "starter" (rather than backup who is starting) for their team before the end of their rookie year. Jake Locker is the only QB of the last ten drafts to be selected in the top 20 picks overall and not be named the team's 'starter' at some point during their rookie year. I think history says its pretty safe to believe he will be a starter in 2017.
  13. I get the injury risk, but do you have numbers that show Allen is below average in points per target?
  14. All: During the draft it seems like most of us are focused on our favorite NFL teams (front page of the forum was all team pages). I thought we could use a thread to still talk fantasy on a collective basis. In a few days we will start seeing the fantasy experts writing articles about which players were helped or hurt the most by the draft. Also the initial rookie ranking will start talking about the best and worst landing slots. Why wait? Round one is over. What vets had the biggest change in market value based on the results? Which rookies were helped or hurt the most by their landing spots? I am gonna go way out on a limb and say Trubiskie (sp) got the biggest bump up in my eyes. He was expected to go top five overall by many draftniks, but the ransom the Bears paid may hurt the team but help the player for fantasy purposes. He is going to start in 2017 and he is going to be playing from way behind most of the year... I see a possible king of garbage time points. Plus, he is going to have a ton of opportunity to build rapport with a core of young players. As far as vets hurt by the draft... All the JAX rbs just became handcuffs at best and while Rivers is loving life, there are only do many balls to go around... The rest of the Chargers passing attack goes down a little bit in my eyes. Brisco54
  15. I think you may want to look up the meaning of "market value" because I am not sure you understand the term. I think you intend to say that his actual value is less than his market value. My guess is that every person who has participated in any of the polls has disagreed with the results in the majority of them. These polls were unique in seeking public consensus on a slot by slot basis (for the first 48 players/picks as it turns out). If you have a better tool for objectively determining market value I look forward to hearing it. For everyone else, I have been out of the country for a while and participation was really lagging so it seemed like a good time to let these die. I agree that we can start over, probably at the start of training camps, now that we have actual players instead of picks for 2017. However, since we are talking dynasty, even then we will include picks, though we will be looking at 2018 picks instead.