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About Brisco54

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  1. Great work. I can only speak with any level of fan knowledge on the Cincy Bengals, and history argues against Mike Brown taking Billy Price if Mike McGlinchey is available at 21, or maybe even Will Hernandez. In the 28 drafts that mike Brown has controlled the Bengals picks, he has selected eight centers in the following rounds: 3, 4,4,4,5,5,7, & 7th rounds and this is despite the fact that Center has been a frequent weak spot during his tenure. Not a single Center (or Safety) in the 35 1st round picks under Mike Brown. Now that n and of itself is not that odd... only 12 teams have drafted a C in the 1st since 1990... but taking only a single C before the 4th round in 28 drafts is an comparably extreme oddity. While I expect them to look for a Center in the draft, I expect that the only way Price will be a Bengal is if he falls to the 46th pick.
  2. I will try to... but I dont want the idea to be hijacked by disagreements with my personal evals of a given player. On your second point, I fully agree that this is the danger. When you kick in a granular rating system it is necessarily going to cause some irrational results initially because you are going from a one or two subjective factor analysis to more than a dozen. The key is to get a system out there and start running through players as a group and then look at our results to then adjust the system. For example, currently i have Physical Ability as an equal factor to Football Skills, when for QBs the latter should probably carry more weight. No one ever accused Dan Fouts of being a great athlete, but he put up great fantasy numbers. This type of things can be adjusted once we can see enough opinions and evals to know exactly what tweaks are needed. The granular evaluation is interdependent to the generic ranking of a player. Currently we are all more skilled at rankings, so we use that skill to reverse calibrate the granular evals. but after that is done, we can use our individual granular evals to help us understand the differences in our overall subjective rankings. Once we have that, we can scientifically test ourselves (e.g. maybe I had Shady ten slots below the group for the coming year... in the granular evals, I see that this is based on my giving him a very low physical ability score because of his age and decrease in yards per carry. If the group turns out to be right, then i know that maybe I am putting too much weight on those facts/stats when evaluating that type of player... or maybe I had a rookie much higher than anyone else because I failed to properly evaluate a specific aspect his opportunity, for example his competition. I wasn't actually wrong about the rookie, just wrong about the talent of the player in front of him on the depth chart... and so on.
  3. Hello all. We are once again in the deep throes of the offseason. Last season, to give us something to talk about as well as creating a useful tool, I hosted the Community Rankings slot by slot series of 48 polls. I think most who participated felt this was a pretty successful enterprise. If you look back at our final results, I think, as a group, we did as good or better than any other contemporaneous rankings that I have seen (in hindsight). We were not perfect, however. For example, we probably undervalued Tyreek Hill (pick 4.12). What specific aspect about him did we get wrong? Was that because we did not adequately appreciate his physical talent, football skills, his opportunity or all three? This year, my (our goal, if you choose to assist) is to create a common Shark Pool language and scale for evaluation of players. This should allow us to see how well we (as individuals and as a group),evaluate and prioritize those three attributes (physical talent, football skills, or his opportunity). Below I have detailed a multi step process for us to use to determine values. Take a look at the methodology and let me know of any glaring errors. Please do not get picky about this... I am sure each and every one of you has different terms and categories you might use... I am just asking to make this something all of us can live with for the process. Also, the basis for your opinion is up to you... it can come from stats analysis, watching games, what you read from someone else, or just your gut. All opinions are welcome. The discussion in the thread under the polls will allow folks to justify their basis or challenge other's if they want, but that is tangential to the primary goal. If enough of you agree, i will devise a poll system to allow you to quickly assign the values for the player under discussion and then tabulate those values. Any of you can nominate which player you would like the group to evaluate next. I expect to set up at least ten players at a time so we can get through as many as possible. I look forward to your thoughts before we get this going. Thanks, Brisco The Method: Step One: Assign a Physical Ability (PA) Score using the Scoring Chart below and classify their play style (WR are speed or possession, QBs are frequent runners or primarily pocket passers) Step Two: Assign a Football Skills (FS) Score using the two step process in Chart 2, below. Step Three: Assign an Opportunity Score (OP) using the two step process in Chart 3, below. This is as far as you will need to go... the other steps will happen automatically since there is no more subjectivity. Step Four: Add the PA, FS and OP scores - this is the players Current value Step Five: Use Chart 4, below to determine the +3 and +5 values Step Six: Add the current value to the +3 and the +5 values to determine the final Shark Pool Dynasty Score CHART ONE I. Physical Ability Scoring Chart - in this area we are looking at two things... measurable physical skills (combine type data + injury data). Injury data includes lingering effects of prior injuries, poor conditioning or wrong body style/frame, playing style as well as lack of weight room/offseason work ethic. 10 – Top 5 at his position in the NFL in terms of measurable physical skills (combine scores) with no negative injury data (or reason to predict injury such as play style). 9 – Top 5 with some injury data OR 6-10 with no injury data 8 – Top 5 with significant injury data OR 6-10 with some injury data OR 11-15 with no injury history 7 – 6-10 with significant injury history, 11-15 with some injury history, 16-20 with no injury history 6 – 11-15 with some injury history, 16-20 with some injury history, 21-25 with no injury history 5 – 16-20 with significant injury history, 21-25 with some injury history, 26-30 with no injury history 4 – 21-25 with significant injury history, 26-30 with some injury history, 30-50 with no injury history 3 - 26-30 with significant injury history, 30-50 with some injury history, 50+ with no injury history 2 – 30-50 with significant injury history, 50 + with some injury history 1 – 50+ with significant injury history CHART TWO II. Football skills - great athletes are not always great football players. They need to acquire certain game specific skills to excel. This area of evaluation looks at how well they have acquired those skills at this point in their career. Unlike physical abilities, which traditionally decline with age, football skills normally increase with each year of experience, although they do traditionally plateau after 3-5 years in the league. Since evaluating these skills is much more nuanced and subjective, our system also needs to be more nuanced that the single step chart we used for physical abilities. Football skills involves a two step process. Football Skills Step One: For each of the fantasy performance skills listed below for that player's position, rate the player as either elite level (4 points), above league average for a starter in that position (3 points), at league average (2 points) or below league average (for an NFL starter remember) (1 point). (Editors Note: I say fantasy performance skills so that we do not talk about secondary skills like pass-blocking for RBs in this category since it does not correlate directly into fantasy points, but is better captured in the next scale of Opportunity.) For receivers (WR & TE), I think the top five key skills (all these lists are in no particular order) a. Hands b. Route running c. Body control d. Skills as a runner after the catch (or when used in a reverse or designated run) e. Situational awareness – knows where the sideline is… knows to alter route when QB is in trouble/blitz For RBs, I propose: a. Vision b. Hands c. Pad level and impact strength (e.g. yards after contact) d. Elusiveness e. Situational Awareness – knowing when to be aggressive or when to wait for the hole to open up… when to take the carry wide or when to try to punch through the original hole For QBs I propose: a. Decision making & maturity under pressure/avoiding sacks & Interceptions b. Vision (can he go through 2, 3 or more reads in 3 seconds) c. Reading the Defense Pre-snap d. Passing speed (speed of decision making plus speed of passing motion) e. Running skills Step Two: Add up your total points and then use the following scale 10 – 19-20 total points 9 – 17-18 total points 8 – 15-16 total points 7 – 13-14 total points 6 – 10-11 total points 5 – 9-10 total points 4 – 7-8 total points 3 – 5-6 total points 2 – 3-4 total points 1 – less than 3 total points CHART 3 III. Fantasy Opportunity - Opportunity is by far the most varied, subjective evaluation. It follows a two step process like Football Skills, but uses the same five attributes for all players: Depth Chart/Competition; Secondary Skills/Versatility; Usage/Team Tendancies; Supporting Cast; and finally, Contract Status (we are dynasty after all). Depth Chart/Competition 4=Clear Starter with no legitimate threat to your position on the roster/draft plan 3=Starter, but at least one talented competitor that could beat him out 2=non-starter, but expected to compete to become the starter 1=non-starter behind an established starter with years remaining Secondary Skills/Versatility– blocking, avoiding fumbles, leadership 4=Elite – these skills will keep you on the field even if you struggle in your core skills 3=Above Average – these skills will allow you to be picked over equal competition 2=Average – these skills don’t help or hurt you 1= Below Average – your lack of these skills limit your touches/plays Usage/Team Tendencies 4=Elite – you are the QB in a pass heavy offense, the top target in a pass heavy offense or a bell-cow RB in a run heavy offense 3=Above Average – QB in a balanced offense, a bellcow RB in a balanced offense, the top target in a balanced offense, the #2 target in a pass heavy offense, or you are part of an RBBC in an RB centric offense (they run/throw to RB enough to keep both busy. 2=Average – Non-running QB or #1 target in a run heavy offense, #2 target in an balanced offense, #3 target in a pass heavy offense, or 2 person RBBC in a balanced offense 1 = Below average (no QBs here because any starter has at least average opportunity) #3 target in a balanced offense, 2 person RBBC in receiver focused offense, 3 person RBBC Supporting Cast (Consider the quality of the line, the targets (for the QB) + the distractions (e.g. a top RB makes life easier for a passer and vice versa), the ability of the Defense to get your offense back on the field and special teams on field position). 4=Elite 3= Above Average 2=Average 1=Below Average Contract Status 4=All signs point to you being with the team for at least 4 more years, and it is a good position 3=Signs point to you being with the team at least 2 more years, and it is a good position 2=RFA at the end of this coming season on a good team for the player or UFA at the end of the season and the player is stifled at his current location. 1=UFA at the end of the current season or near the end of a long term contract with a unusually high salary cap cost on a good team. For each of the skills, rate the player as either elite level (4 points), above league average for a starter in that position (3 points), at league average (2 points) or below league average (1 point). Add up your total points and then use the following scale 10 – 19-20 total points 9 – 17-18 total points 8 – 15-16 total points 7 – 13-14 total points 6 – 10-11 total points 5 – 9-10 total points 4 – 7-8 total points 3 – 5-6 total points 2 – 3-4 total points 1 – less than 3 total points CHART 4 IV. Future Value Okay, at this point we have three different scores of 1-10 for the player, the total of which gives you the players current score. All of this evaluation (except contract status) deals with the current situation for that player. To make this useful to dynasty we need to extend these evals into the future. I propose we look at 3 years (+3) and 5 years ( +5) into the future and the total of all three will give us his dynasty value/final Shark Pool score. First, I can already here you saying that it is a fruitless exercise to predict value 5 years from now. I agree for the category of Opportunity, so it is not included in the +3 and +5 values. However, I think that we can use trends to tell us the path their Physical Ability and Football Skills scores will follow. For RBs, Age - Turning 26 = -1 Physical Ability(PA) score, turning 29= -2PA, turning 31 -2PA Experience - +1 FS score after first year in the NFL +1 FS score after the 3rd year in the league If we start with a 22 year old rookie RB with scores of PA-8, FS-4, and OP-5 making his CSP score a 17. His +3 score will be 14 (PA8 (no change) + FA6 (+1 year one and +1 year three) +0 for OP) and his +5 score will be 13 (minus one PA point because he went over age 26) giving him a final Shark Pool (dynasty) value of 44 If we start with a 26 year old vet RB with the same starting scores (PA-8, FS-4, and OP-5) his +3 score will be 10 (-2 PA, no change in FS) and his +5 score will be 8 (-2 PA) for a final Shark Pool score of 35 (Editor's Note that it does not matter that these are only trends and that there are exceptions... the zeitgeist controls player market value and it uses these trends at least subconsciously) For WR, we should categorize the WR as being a (primarily) Speed WR or a Possession WR. Speed WR - -1 PA point at age 27, -2 PA points at age 30, -1 PA point at age 34 (if they are still in the league at this point they will have converted to a possession receiver). Possession WR - -1 PA at age 29, -1 PA at age 31, -2 PA at age 34. Football Skills for both will be +1 after year one, year two, and year three. If we start with a 22 year old rookie speed WR with same scores as our RBs of PA-8, FS-4, and OP-5 making his CSP score a 17. His +3 score will be 15 (PA8 (no change) + FA7 (+3 ) +0 for OP) and his +5 score will be 13 (minus one PA point because he went over age 27) giving him a final Shark Pool (dynasty) value of 45 If we start with a 26 year old speed WR with the same starting score (PA-8 + FS-4 + OP-5=17) his +3 score will be 11 (-1 PA, no change in FS) and his +5 score will be 9 (-2 PA) for a final Shark Pool score of 37 Switch both to possession WR with the same initial scores and the final scores are 46 and 38 fopr starting ages of 22 and 26 respectively For QB you have to separate them into runners or primarily pocket passers. For running QBs, -1 PA point age 25, -2 age 29 but then (if they are still playing) they will have converted to pocket passers and will not lose another point until age 34. Primarily Pocket Passers - -1 PA at age 27, -1 PA at age 30, -1 at age 34. Football skills for both will be +1 after year one of starting, +1 after year three and +1 after year five.
  4. Brown and the 4th are trade fluff... the gist is Shady for Woods plus 1.10. If Shady was the final piece, I might consider it... but you are a few players from contention. In your shoes you should be acquiring players whose value might go up... no one is saying that about Shady.
  5. Normally i prefer proven vets if they are still in their prime, but Ingram is a question mark at this point. I have ridden him to two straight championships, but didn't his pro bowl qualify him for true free agency? Who knows where he will end up.
  6. I would not trade Hill straight up for Wilson + Baldwin. I don't value Baldwin and QBs are too easy to replace... legitimate WR1s are not.
  7. Coop, I think you misunderstand my post. Regardless of the strength of a class, consensus fails by the 3rd round. In fact, deeper drafts are more likely to have less consensus. Ask ten experienced dynasty owners to rank the top 15 rookies, and their lists will be 80-90% similar... therefore a pick in that range is more valuable because if you do not select the player, someone else surely will. Consensus starts to fade after that and by the mid 3rd round, or pick 30 overall, those same ten owners might give you ten different answers on who is the next best rookie. Pick 3.10 is the 34th pick overall. At that point, it goes beyond possible to probable that the player you want to add will still be there on the wire after the draft is over because consensus is gone. On a side note... there is a reason that consensus is gone by that point. I did a ten year analysis of the top 36 ranked rookies in dynasty drafts by ADP and by the third round the "hit" rate (Player became worth a 2d round rookie pick three years after the draft) was under 25%... and that low hit rate was relatively consistent in years where the draft was considered deep or shallow. In the first two rounds the hit rate for WR was about 65% if drafted in the 1st round and 45% if drafted in the 2d... and most interestingly, 2d round RBs had a higher hit rate than 1st round RBs.
  8. 1.1. Odell Beckham 1.2. Ezekiel Elliot 1.3. Mike Evans 1.4. David Johnson 1.5. LeVeon Bell 1.6. Antonio Brown 1.7. Julio Jones 1.8. Amari Cooper 1.9. AJ Green 1.10. (Tie) Deandre Hopkins & Rookie Pick 1.1 1.12. Todd Gurley Round 2 2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2 2.2 Allen Robinson 2.3 Sammy Watkins 2.4 TY Hilton 2.5 Michael Thomas 2.6 Rob Gronkowski 2.7 Dez Bryant 2.8 Devonta Freeman 2.9 Brandin Cooks 2.10 Jordan Howard 2.11 Melvin Gordon 2.12 Keenan Allen 3.1 Andrew Luck 3.2 Alshon Jeffrey 3.3 Aaron Rodgers 3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3 3.5 Jarvis Landry 3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4 3.7 Travis Kelce 3.8 Jay Ajayi 3.9 Carlos Hyde 3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams Jordan Reed 3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas Derrick Henry 4.2 Rookie Pick 1.5 4.3 Stefon Diggs 4.4 Lamar Miller 4.5 Corey Coleman 4.6 (Tie) Doug Baldwin Rookie Pick 1.6 4.8 LeSean McCoy 4.9 Donte Moncreif 4.10 Jordy Nelson 4.11 Kelvin Benjamin 4.12 Tyreek Hill i was thinking about doing an analysis of the results one year later, but no time to do it effectively. there were 48 separate polls. Each one is linked to its predecessor and successor. It is interesting to go back and look at the discussions.
  9. I concede the point. Words are hard. ?
  10. The daily polls ranged from 35 to 72 votes daily, not five to seven so this was more of a consensus than you seem to understand. I, for one, do not claim any level of expertise in evaluating fantasy talent. Instead, I have long been a practitioner of the market value approach to dynasty. I trust the consensus more than any individual ranking, including my own. (FYI, this is also a path to success in the real market. Index funds outperform the vast majority of professional advisors, managed funds and individual investors over time.) you are correct that markets are always fluctuating, but I do not think they change enough to make data to become obsolete overnight. I used the final polls we created as a group for months. My market value approach works for me, so I will stick with it.... just as I assume you will stick with your condescending arrogance when talking to strangers on message boards. Good luck with that!
  11. No such thing as consensus dynasty rankings? Then I guess the months I spent last off-season doing daily slot by slot polls to create a consensus ranking on this board is a false memory. Old age catching up with me I guess.
  12. You are right to move a WR to add youth, but I would counter with a 2019 2nd instead of a 1st. In IDP, the difference between 1.8 and 1.11 is not as significant as in non-IDP... but the difference between a undetermined 1st and undetermined 2d in 2019 could be huge.
  13. Unless its a start up draft, any pick in a competitive dynasty league after the second round has almost zero value. By the mid third round there is no longer any real consensus on value, so the player you want is likely to be there a round later or even on the wire at the end of the draft. If you feel that Powell is worth adding off the wavier wire, than you make that trade since you are basically giving up nothing.
  14. Since when is a single line delivered in a dead pan voice "gushing"? C'mon guys... if he had said Bill Belichek was wearing a nice sweatshirt in the same voice/tone, it would have had the same relevance to the game, and yet not have caused any of the brouhaha in this thread. I am not a Timberlake/pop fan, but I think it would have been more odd for a color commentator not to say anything about the performance. The half time show is now a major part of the superbowl event... (its not just "Up with People" every year any more). Using the Jessica Alba metaphor... CC did not only comment on the satin sheets... but included a comment about the sheets within about 200 comments about the event. The JT show was nearly ten minutes of unbroken fireworks. Tell me... if CC had said (in deadpan voice) the game was almost as exciting as the grand finale of a fireworks show... would everyone still be all hot and bothered?
  15. Then again.. Barkely could be the next Trent Richardson and 1.6 could be Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara. Maybe we are looking at different data for Adams? Two of his four seasons he has played all 16 games and he has missed a total of 5 games in 4 season. His 8.3 targets per game place him at WR6 for 2017, behind only Dhop, Brown, Fitz, Landry & Keenan. His target share was 19.8 in 2016 and increased to 23.8 in 2017. (22% target share is normally the cut off for elite production.) He followed the typical WR developmental pattern of a year three spike. I get that folks want more total yards, but I fail to see any indicators that his performance levels will decline in the foreseeable future. Hindery has him at WR8 for dynasty and I feel that is about right. Any young top ten wr is fantasy gold in my book.