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Futeki

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Everything posted by Futeki

  1. I am trying to fully understand what is up with Corey Davis. He has very good size, speed, quickness, and even work ethic. So far it is that he isn't good against press coverage and he has shown a general inability to put it all together in games despite showing it in practice. I cam across this article touting AJB https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2019/12/19/21028713/film-review-a-j-browns-monster-day-against-the-texans. I was looking at Corey Davis in the videos. 1. Nothing to see here. [Own goal line. No Corey Davis. Bomb to AJB.] 2. Man coverage. Davis and AJB on opposite sides. Davis breaks sharply and is wide open across the middle, enough for a first down. FS stays split between Davis and AJB. The ball goes to a better covered AJB a bit further down the field. AJB was open, but the ball was a bit late, allowing the DB to recover. 3. Nothing to see here. [Clear out for an underneath throw to AJB.] 4. Man coverage. Davis split wide and AJB next to him in the slot. Davis makes an excellent cut getting instant separation from the #1 CB. AJB isn't really open, but he turns it into a productive play with his RAC ability. 5. Unclear, but it appears Davis is pressed at the line, gets extra coverage by a second defender who then slides off to pick up the RB out of the backfield. As soon as that happens, another defender slides over effectively maintaining double coverage on Davis. When the play is extended, the extra defender plays the side of the field around the goal-line without giving extra attention to Davis. On the other side of the field, the defense trusted one CB without help to cover AJB the entire time. In those few videos, Davis was either getting extra attention or was clearly open. Was it like that much of the season? I am not looking to take anything away from AJB. It appears like the other team treated Davis as the #1 while the Titans treated AJB as the #1, since Davis didn't get the looks when he was open. That is a double whammy for statistical output for Davis. If Davis is treated as the #2 by opposing defenses, could he be dominant? Teams should treat AJB as the #1 from the start of next season. AJB can get it done simply by physicality and RAC. Davis is not that type of player, although he was the #11 WR for YAC over expected YAC, while AJB was obviously #1. If Tannehill is not up to the task, we may have to wait for 2021 for Davis.
  2. The reality is people are subconsciously influenced by their expectations. When the talking heads say Swift is amazing and CEH is good, their interpretation of the ambiguity of what they are watching will drift in those directions. With the endorsement of Reid/Mahomes, the expectations when watching CEH became sky high. The change in interpretation is no surprise The skeptics out there can mitigate this preconceived bias to an extent, even flipping it the other way if they are antagonistic in nature. If a talking head or two takes a strong early stance on a player, it can influence the other talking heads. The view spreads and even reinforces the original. It takes a vocal skeptic, or someone who doesn't listen to the chatter (basically a zero based review) to break out of it. Not that either is inherently correct.
  3. I'm not certain the body is able, but I believe everyone will be hellbent on producing stats. I don't see them letting off the gas in wins. If it was reasonable, I think they would never give a handoff and use shovel passes instead of runs!
  4. The Chiefs really need LB and CB. Four of the five picks immediately preceding the Chiefs were LB and CB. Perhaps they didn't see the value there. Too bad there wasn't a QB worth taking there so they could trade down. As a Chiefs fan, before the draft, I thought they might take an RB with the 32nd pick. People talk about how good the Chiefs O-line is, but Mahomes was always scrambling. By the time the Super Bowl rolled around, he seemed to reflexively scramble sometimes. I remember a couple of times after he quickly resorted to scramble that he glanced back, saw nobody was actually there, and shook his head. Perhaps with CEH we'll see Mahomes scrambling a bit less and slinging it downfield (with great success). CEH is a tremendous outlet.
  5. Agreed. I think there is also a clear delineation at WR after Pittman was taken. The next guys are injury concerns, speedster, more athlete than WR, weapon, etc. There is either a noticeable jump in risk or a poor fit for Indy with the next guys taken.
  6. Is this a knock on Taylor (Wisconsin #8), Swift (Georgia #2), or Dobbins (Ohio State #4)?
  7. Currently, the data shows three types of people are truly at risk: 1) People with breathing problems will have an even harder time breathing. 2) People with heart problems will have a hard time because being really sick is quite taxing on the system. 3) People with an immunodeficiency disorder are seeing their immune systems overreact, going into hyper drive. The third group appears to be the occasions where seemingly healthy people need to be hospitalized. Professional (and college) athletes basically are not in group 1 or 2. They may rarely be in group 3. Hopefully those who are already realize it and take the extra precautions. Then there is everyone else. Granted, this is the preliminary analysis of the data. It also explains why more people have had it than realized. Once we have the level of confidence needed, things are going to be opening up. People can return to their livelihood, such as professional athletics. Precautions will still be need to protect those at most risk. That means they don't attend an NFL game. I have no idea how overly cautious universities are going to be. They have more people in the student body in all three categories. Life is not risk free. It is about understanding the risks and our risk tolerance. The longer this goes, the greater our understanding, and the higher our tolerance to the risks. Both move in the direction of opening things up. [Granted, the initial indications may be born out to be incorrect.]
  8. It actually means Belichick likes Stidham more than Love as a first round pick.
  9. Studies are already narrowing down who is truly vulnerable to extreme immune system responses and why. Society should do what it can to ensure those people are protected and cared for. However, with that knowledge (not yet complete) and an abundance of tests, there will no longer be a need to crush society to do so. The real concern is when the next [far more deadly] pandemic happens.
  10. After the TB pick, I looked at the next nine and thought ****, Moss is going to Buffalo. True split I imagine.
  11. This is the key point in all of this. We live in a world of probabilities and possibilities. I fully expect BB has doubts about Stidham and he is fully aware of the plenitude of possible outcomes. The current QB situation in NE does not mean BB is closed to other possibilities. We can be certain of one thing, the risk of rolling with Stidham in 2020 has thus far been preferable to all other opportunities (given the context at the time those opportunities were not taken with no benefit of hindsight). If no QB is added in the draft, and no viable veteran QB is added, it further reveals the level of confidence BB has in Stidham, but again, only so much as the available opportunities not taken.
  12. The problem is people are expecting the teams to draft another RB. For Connor and Singletary at least, they need another decent but complementary RB. Drafting one wouldn't be damning unless it was early. The Steelers first pick is 49, and the backs that would straight up supplant Connor are likely gone. The Bills have picks 22 and 54 in the first three rounds. Backs will be available that would be expected to supplant Singletary at those picks. I think the Bills might go with a pounder like AJ Dillon later. If RBs are not drafted early for those two, their values go up quite a bit, IMO.
  13. Running back (and cornerback) generally allow for the dumbest players. Wide receivers need more, but I don't claim to know how much more
  14. I won't be surprised if he is the 2nd QB off the board either. Regarding throwing on the run, from what I've seen, he is more accurate! When throwing from the pocket, he consistently threw just behind the receiver, but still catchable. His scrambling in the same direction as the receiver is running appears to make the difference.
  15. Your numbers aren't right as far as I can tell regarding dead money. Unless Washington is still on the hook for Smith's salary this year even with a trade. Smith is due $16 million salary. Washington has to account for that and 1/5 of the $27 million bonus ($5.4 million) for a total of $21.4 million this year. Still $10.8 million yet to be accounted in 2021/2022. Trading Smith, the receiving team would pay the $16 million salary, but the other $10.8 million would accelerate to this year for a total of $16.2 million. Cutting him, yes, Washington would have a cap hit of $32.2 million this year instead of $21.4 million if he stayed or $16.2 million if another team paid his salary. The 2021 and 2022 salaries are not guaranteed. If he does well, he would definitely be worth it those prices. My main point was mostly a proven player could be worked into the salary cap for only $6 million (this year, kicking $10 million to the next 1-2 years). Again, assuming health.
  16. Depending how the draft goes, I see NE trading for Alex Smith assuming he is healthy. Smith is only due a salary of $16 million this year. That $16 million is about how much the remainder of the bonus that would be accelerated from 2021/2022 to 2020 for the Redskins. The money would be a wash for Washington. NE could even convert this year's salary to the veteran minimum and a $15 million bonus spread over three seasons. Smith's cap hit could be a mere $6 million this year.
  17. Yes! With Hopkins gone, this season will be interesting for Fuller. Perhaps it will turn into actual victories for you! Fuller will see an overall production bump even with the lost efficiency. However, I think he'll still mostly make everyone else better. It takes too many variables to be right for that type of game changer to reap the stats. That is the issue I see with Ruggs. Either he won't be that good, or he will be that good but mostly make everyone else better, with sporadic flashes, of course.
  18. Ruggs is a very good receiver. I expect him to be the first WR drafted, and he should be, but that doesn't make him the best receiver in this class. Draft position has historically been a great predictor for success. However, the other factors baked into draft position must be considered. If not, those more strictly adhering to draft position will probably select Ruggs sooner than they should. Similarly, rookies that can perform as return men will go higher than they would purely due to their WR ability. That will probably hinder me from grabbing a player Reagor as much as I would like. If you are a Ruggs believer (I am), you'll likely need to pay an extra premium to get him (I'm not), unless you get points for double / over the top coverage.
  19. More doesn't mean better. It means that whatever his shortcomings are, they get repeated more often.
  20. Taylor had a ton of touches each year. Another back had to take some of the load. He is such a dominant runner that the smaller dropoff in capability is in receiving. This past season and at the combine, he looked far more than just capable at receiving. If his backup in the pros is also an all around back, I believe the backup will be used as a backup and Taylor will get plenty of receptions. Only if the backup is a questionable rusher but an excellent receiver will Taylor's college usage continue. In that case, I still think he would get plenty of receptions in games where his future team abandons the run, keeping his floor high.
  21. It is possible that the Jeudy backers in PPR don't play standard or prefer to go RB (Akers). A poll with those two as the only options would be more telling of the general perception.