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EBF

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EBF last won the day on May 18 2013

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  1. Doomed to fail, IMO. Minor league football just hasn't worked in the USA, and football as a sport has probably peaked anyway. McMahon is stubborn and full of pride. He would've been better off spending his money on an MLS franchise or maybe e-sports.
  2. Thanks. I don't really follow CFB these days and mainly catch up after the draft, but I'm still in one devy league and Ruggs was my pick this year, so I've kept tabs on him. A lot of people compare him to Tyreek because of his speed, but I think there are some differences there. Tyreek is stronger, more compact, shiftier, and more physical. Tyreek has a little bit of a RB/scat back in his DNA still even though he only plays WR these days. Ruggs is a little bit leaner and more of a classic pure deep threat. However, he's not just a fast guy. He has shown some nice route running and plucking ability with his hands. That's why I lean towards Hilton as the comparison. Neither guy offers much in terms of strength or physicality. They win with speed and explosiveness. The team that drafts Ruggs will be aware of that. They're not going to try to use him like he's Anquan Boldin. They're going to turn him loose and let his speed open up the field.
  3. The problem is that your profile is pretty arbitrary and doesn't necessarily have any predictive value. If you pick a couple random "meh" guys and arbitrarily lump him in with them, of course it's going to suit the argument that his outlook is also meh. It's only convincing if the comparisons seem credible, and that can be a challenge with football players because it's somewhat rare for them to be exactly the same as other players. Usually there are unique aspects that you have to account for. For example, what "profile" did Tyreek Hill fit as a smurfy RB/KR with minimal WR production? What "profile" did Keenan Allen fit as a tall, lanky WR with horrible 40 speed? What "profile" did Anquan Boldin and his 4.70 40 times fit? There are aspects of these players that are traditional and aspects that are frightening because they don't jive with expectations. None of these guys looked like obvious top 10 dynasty WRs until they were. The challenge when you are evaluating players is to try to put all the variables together to capture what the player brings. With Deebo, what makes him unique is that he has an abnormally high weight for his height, almost in RB/TE territory, and yet also possesses big play ability. The fact that he runs 4.4x and is a huge RAC threat at these dimensions is just unusual and different. I can see some superficial similarities to Kirk and Tate (though he's a lot bulkier than either), but I can also see some parallels with greater success stories (aspects of his game remind me of Boldin, Tyreek, and DJ Moore). It's hard to say "this is exactly what he is" when there's nobody out there exactly like him. I've not been keeping up with dynasty rankings to see where he'll be in the offseason lists. If he's ranked as a top 10 WR then there will be argument for selling. Is he the next Andre Johnson or Julio? I don't think he looks that special and I view him more as a dynasty WR2 than a guy who is going to carry your team on his own, but he's already in the NFL, producing startable FF stats, and looking like a dynamic weapon. That's the best-case scenario for your rookie pick, so I don't see myself cashing out just to roll the dice again. It's like trading a dollar for a coin flip that might win you a dollar. It's pointless risk unless you are dead certain that a particular prospect is going to hit bigger, and that's a pretty small target to aim at given how big he looks to have hit.
  4. Seems like you are overrating picks and underrating Samuel. Even if he's just a WR2 for FF teams, that's a pretty good outcome. First round rookie picks have maybe a 35-50% fail rate. You are going to end up with a lot of Laquon Treadwell and David Montgomery. So while I can see maybe taking a top 2-3 pick for Samuel if there's somebody in the pool that you love, his remaining career is worth more than a random future 1st. I'm not sure which Steve Smith you mean. If it's the Panthers version, he was a great FF asset. If it's the Giants version, he really wasn't similar to Deebo. The Kirk/Tate comparisons don't really work for me either. Deebo is much bigger than Kirk or Tate. The fact that he's as fast as those guys AND much bigger/stronger is what makes him a little bit freakish. When you look at his body type, he shouldn't be as fast as he is -- but he is. Here's a relevant fact: He ranked 67th in the NFL in targets, but was tied for 10th in the NFL in "big" catches (20+ yards). In other words, he had crazy efficiency at breaking long plays. When you watch the Niners play these days, he is already one of their best offensive players and is impacting the game in a variety of ways. He averaged about 15 ppg in PPR from weeks 9-17. Fluke? Mirage? Pinnacle? It's always possible, but he's already reached a level that you can only hope your rookie picks ever hit, so I can't see taking many college WRs over him right now.
  5. I don't feel too bad about where I had Metcalf. The league didn't love him and I didn't love his game clips. If you're going to miss, miss on the side of being cautious because the punishment of avoiding a player is a lot less than the punishment of drafting a bad player. Metcalf had a good rookie year and would be a few spots higher on a revision. He proved that he's more than just a fast guy, also showing some decent route and possession chops. The first hint that he would be legit was how the Seahawks treated him in the preseason, when they seemed to fast track him into the starting lineup. That's not something they've always done with their WR draft picks, so obviously they saw something they liked there. If nothing else, he's shown that he can be a useful NFL weapon. 900 yards as a rookie WR is a great return. 37th in the league in targets. 34th in the league in yards. That's not mind-blowing efficiency with a Pro Bowl QB. AJ and Deebo were both more efficient on a per-target basis, but we're talking about a rookie WR who was widely considered to be a project, so he should get better in future seasons. As for him becoming a Julio/Calvin/Marshall, I'm personally not ready to take that leap yet. That's rarefied air. I'll see where he settles on offseason dynasty WR rankings before I decide if I'm a buyer/seller/holder at current market price. That said, he's definitely a "win" right now based on his rookie ADP vs. what he produced in his first year. His value is higher today than it was in the summer.
  6. Is it bad form to bump your own topic? Feeling pretty good about this list after the first season for these players. My takes on Jacobs, Sanders, AJ Brown, Deebo, and Marquise Brown have aged well. It's early, but it looks like I was right to fade Montgomery, Campbell, and Arcega-Whiteside. Metcalf and Singletary have been a little better than expected, and McLaurin surprised me with his production. Damien Harris was too high, but could be an intriguing buy-low after a milk carton rookie season. I'll be back with a 2020 list sometime after the draft.
  7. Don't own him anywhere, but I'd like to change that. I think he can be a quality back (not amazing, but useful). If his owners are cutting bait for cheap enough then I can see myself buying a lot of him. Would a random 3rd round rookie pick get it done?
  8. Trump is the nut low. Hopefully more of the Jonestown crowd will wake up from their Kool-Aid nap and see him for what he is now. He has never been anything other than a privileged con man whose sole superpower is his utter lack of shame and remorse.
  9. He was actually pretty awesome towards the tail end of 2017. I believe he was a top 10 ppr RB in the second half of that season. I expected big things last year, but Phins gonna Phin.
  10. Kendrick Bourne was my guy for a while, but I think the secret is out there. I don't know if he'll ever be FF-relevant, but he can play a little bit. If the stars align for him, he can be something like Stevie Johnson was at his peak: a chain-moving possession guy who lacks dynamism or elite talent. He will need a huge target load to be reliable in FF because he's not explosive. Basically, he will need to go to a desperate team that will feed him targets. Probably an unlikely scenario, but they can't seem to get rid of him in SF no matter how many WRs they draft because ultimately he is a pretty decent player. My leagues are too deep for a guy like Damien Harris to be dropped this quickly, but if he's out there then by all means take a punt. I've grabbed Warring in some shallow leagues where other people needed the roster spot. High pick on a team that doesn't have a top tier TE. Ursua is an interesting shout. I always look at 53 man rosters at the start of the year because it's hard to make a team without some level of talent. The fact that the Seahawks are keeping him around despite not having any immediate use for him suggests that they see something there. He's an over-aged guy with a modest ceiling on paper, but I did like his game highlights some.
  11. Yea. I posted the Ertz offer and obviously in hindsight it looks bad to have passed on that (for now), but that was an anomaly. People are chronic lowballers in dynasty. Most trade offers you receive will be crap and Edmonds isn't the type of guy to generate wild overpays. Like I said, he has a lot of factors working against him: low draft slot, obscure college, no name recognition. That's not the type of guy people sell the farm to acquire. If you get any interest at all, it's going to be nibbles where people try to get something without giving up anything. It's pointless to "sell high" when there's no market for a player. I think he's still a hold, if not a buy. If you were a believer, his long-term outlook hasn't changed. He simply got hurt. Drake is a rental until proven otherwise and DJ continues to be a shell of his former self.
  12. Not as interested in the NFL/CFB as I used to be. I have some issues with the sport itself and the culture around the sport. I'm more of a basketball and soccer fan these days. I mainly follow football for the sake of FF. As far as FF goes, I still enjoy it, but I get tired of the constant injuries. It seems like every year I am losing guys left and right. It gets frustrating to put so much effort into building teams, only to see 25-50% of your players miss time throughout the season.
  13. Neither does Drake, and I've always liked Drake. I would say Edmonds is more compact and in today's NFL, being a "workhorse back" isn't everything. Part-time roles can have a lot of value depending on how the touches are distributed.