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EBF

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EBF last won the day on May 18 2013

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  1. His biggest strengths as a WR are his size and field-stretching speed. His biggest weaknesses are a lack of suddenness, quickness, and RAC ability. He would be very small for a TE and doesn't stack up with the Reed and Hernandez types in terms of routes and RAC. A guy like Hayden Hurst, who weighs 250+ pounds, is still more elusive and agile than Claypool, albeit without the sheer speed. As a TE Claypool would really just be a seam threat and nothing more.
  2. Right. Why does there seem to be a perception that he's permanently locked into the role he played as a rookie? It used to be that we gave WRs 2-3 years before we judged them, but now his ceiling is capped after his rookie year? Makes no sense. I went through and looked at the top 20 WRs in the NFL last year in receiving yards. 16/20 of them had more targets in their second season than they did in their rookie year, and one of the guys who didn't was injured in his second year (Kupp). Another one was Edelman, who didn't really break out in any real capacity until his 5th NFL season. By and large, the WRs who eventually became good NFL players saw their role GROW in year two. Every now and then you get a fluke type of guy like Michael Clayton or Keary Colbert who has a solid rookie year and then falls off the face of the Earth, but it's pretty odd that so many people are just locked into this notion that the SF offense is static and that Samuel's role can't grow. Guys like Tyreek and DJ Moore offer a compelling best-case scenario of how dynamic weapons can gradually see their usage increase. If that happens in SF with Deebo, you have a likely top 15 FF WR. I see people citing all the fear factors without acknowledging the growth potential. It's the same with the Aiyuk stuff. All these people are mentioning Aiyuk as a bogeyman while neglecting to point out that he's just filling the spot Sanders vacated when he left for NO. I'm higher on Aiyuk than most people, but the presence of another good WR on the roster doesn't relegate Deebo to irrelevance, and if we're handicapping that battle we probably have to favor the guy who has already thrived.
  3. Think this was discussed a couple pages ago, but I gave the #25 rookie pick and a future 3rd for him in one league recently to cuff Dobbins. In a rookie class this deep I wouldn't give anything more than a late 2nd-early 3rd for him. He has the double Dobbins/Lamar vulture factor and no long-term value to speak of, so he's really just a short-term depth play.
  4. The argument is simply that he had freakish efficiency last season and could scale into an FF monster with more looks. Very similar to the arguments about Tyreek after his first 1-2 years in the NFL when he hadn't gone nuclear yet. Deebo's rookie year was actually a lot better than Tyreek's, so you'd have to go to Tyreek's second year to find a decent parallel: Hill 2017 - 105 targets, 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, 15 "big" plays (20+ yards), 11.3 yards per target Samuel 2019 - 81 targets, 57 receptions, 802 yards, 17 "big" plays (20+ yards), 9.9 yards per target This is a guy who showed a freaky ability to break big plays in the preseason, carried it over into the regular season, and had a strong overall FF campaign on just 81 targets. The idea that somehow he lacks upside or has hit his ceiling already seems borderline insane. He ranked 65th in the NFL in targets last season. A modest uptick in targets without a major loss in efficiency can pretty easily catapult him into the top 10-15 FF WRs. I understand that some people can't get past the idea that SF's offense will limit his chances, but there's really nowhere to go but up from a targets/looks standpoint. I don't really get how people look at rookies like Lamb and Jeudy and think they have more upside. They have less physical talent and are less proven, whereas this guy has a freaky size/speed combo and has already shown that his skill set translates to the NFL. It's just a strange market inefficiency, but I think most of his owners recognize that they have a good asset on their hands and won't sell for skeptic prices. It took a while for Hill's consensus value to catch up with his actual value and it feels like a repeat of that here. I don't think Samuel is as elite as Hill, but most sites have him around dynasty WR25 right now and that's underselling the risk/reward equation that he offers. He belongs 5-10 spots higher on the overall dynasty WR board and should be drafted ahead of every rookie WR in startups.
  5. Feels like there are two big factors at work here: - Prospects like Higgins and Mims were more popular in the dev community and more hyped over the last year. That tends to bleed into rookie draft ADP. - People draft for situation and don't think SF will be a good offense. It's hard to argue with the value of Aiyuk at his ADP, which seems to be around 12-15 based on my leagues. Not only did he sneak into the first round of the NFL draft, but he was the 25th pick and SF traded up to get him, suggesting that they had him much higher than alternatives like Mims/Pittman/Higgins who often go before him in FF rookie drafts. Do we really know more about talent than SF's scouting department? Sometimes these out-of-left-field 1st round WRs end up being as bad as the community thinks they are (Craig Davis and AJ Jenkins come to mind), but I like what he offers and the price is reasonable for what you're getting. The situation stuff is largely a nothing burger for me in the long run. Either he can play or he can't, and Kittle/Garoppolo won't dictate the long-term trajectory of his career.
  6. Aiyuk. 🥂 I like that fade list as well except for Asiasi. Feel like he's quality value at his ADP. Not sharing the fascination that my league mates have with the day three dart throws (Kelley, McFarland, Gandy-Golden). I guess I can see McFarland being decent in spurts, but all those guys go pretty high for being longshots on paper.
  7. Kelce was the alpha in KC until Hill really broke out. Not saying Samuel = Hill or that Garoppolo is anywhere close to Mahomes, but a lot of the commentary on Deebo stresses the fear factors while downplaying the latent upside. Just seems odd to me. If Lamb or Jeudy has an identical rookie year, people will be bullish going into 2021, but mostly what I'm hearing about Deebo is all the bad stuff and none of the good stuff. The size/speed combo is freaky and he was an efficiency monster last season. Could this be his ceiling? Perhaps, but there's also a fairly decent probability that he can push for a top 10-15 finish and become a real top flight asset. If someone like Akers or Swift hits big and becomes another Ray Rice or LeVeon then of course you will love that pick, but people thought they were getting instant starters when they drafted David Montgomery, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, and so many others. Every year people reach for the instant opportunity and only a fraction of these prospects fulfill the most optimistic visions of who they can be. I understand the argument of swinging for the fences to land the real difference-maker, but I think Deebo has a non-zero probability of growing into that type of contributor along with a much lower probability of crashing and burning, so I think the risk/reward equation favors him if your league format isn't too insanely skewed towards RBs.
  8. I like Dobbins somewhat and think can Swift can at least be decent, but I wouldn't classify either as a "top" RB prospect. Ditto Akers. Will 1-2 of those guys be solid? Probably, but they're not Saquon or even Chubb/Mixon from a tools/talent standpoint. This may be where I deviate from a lot of drafters. I don't think the upside of this year's rookies beyond the top couple slots is obviously any higher than the upside of a player like Deebo, so it makes sense to favor the guy who has already shown viability, as you're getting the same potential potential payoff with reduced risk. All it really comes down to for me. A 75% chance at a HR is worth more to me than a 50% chance at HR, which is a more accurate analogy for how I view it.
  9. Not remotely true, but he was a top 10 WR in the second half of last season and top 20 in that stretch on PPG. Pretty good for a rookie year. A lot of teams were starting Deebo in the FF playoffs last season, and that's a pretty good outcome for your rookie pick. What's encouraging for his future trajectory is that he put up those numbers on a relatively low number of targets, suggesting that he could potentially scale to much higher production if his targets rise without huge loss of efficiency. He was possibly the most explosive WR in the NFL last year in terms of big play %. He looks like a "hit" from last year's draft class and trading a hit for a chance at a hit is not ideal dynasty strategy. There' s an argument that Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs/etc have more upside, but the problem is that they also present massive bust risk based on the historic fail rate of rookie WR prospects. Even if you buy the notion that Deebo's upside is capped in WR2-WR3 territory (I don't, but let's just go with it), that's not a bad outcome compared to the full range of rookie pick possibilities. There are a lot of Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and Corey Davis dynasty owners who would snap your hand off in a straight-up-offer for Deebo. For me personally, I don't see anything so special in Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs/etc that I'm going to pass up a triple for a chance at HR. Similar story for others like AJ Brown and Metcalf. Maybe they will keep growing and maybe not, but I tend to favor them over the rookie WRs since they've already established a certain degree of viability. A lot of players never even clear that first hurdle.
  10. This narrative didn't work out for you too well last preseason when you were naysaying his breakout signs: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/773930-dynasty-redraft-wr-tyshun-“deebo”-samuel-49ers/?do=findComment&comment=22090430 Not sure doubling down is the right play. He has some special traits and did some special things last year.
  11. The 40 time is always the headline of a combine workout, but look at what he did in the jumps. Vertical Leap - 39.5" Broad Jump - 10'3" These are very good numbers. When I used to spend a lot of time on combine data, I noticed that tall guys seemed to do better in the broad jump. Those massive 11' leaps typically come from those long-frame types like Justin Hunter, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc. It seems that their taller frame is a raw mechanical advantage in that particular drill. 11' is a freaky result, but 10' was roughly the cutoff for what I considered a "good" jump, and the number becomes more impressive the shorter the prospect. For a stubby 5'7" guy like Clyde to pop a 10'3" is pretty impressive. Other short backs like Ray Rice, MJD, and Sproles were well behind that mark. The vertical is meant to roughly measure lower body burst/explosive strength, whereas the broad jump seems related to stride length and north-south explosion. The 10'3" mark in this drill suggests that Clyde has some straight-line explosiveness despite the middling 40 time. Doesn't guarantee success (see: Abdullah), but it's yet another box you can check with this guy. To characterize him as a guy who's only being touted because of his landing spot is misguided, IMO. There are some nice things here from multiple angles: production, film, draft slot, workout profile. It's almost like the 40 time is the only thing he doesn't have, because he checks a lot of boxes. Is he perfect? No, but if you whittle your list down to only include the perfect prospects, you might have 1-2 names in an entire draft class if you're lucky. Everyone that isn't Saquon, Luc, or Calvin has warts of some sort, and part of the challenge is deciding which ones are fatal and which ones don't really have to mean anything.
  12. I wouldn't trade Deebo for the 1.03. Don't think there's a strong argument that the likes of Jeudy/Lamb/Reagor deserve to go ahead of him. Fail rate on first round WRs is considerable and these guys don't look that special. Same for the RBs in that ADP range. Struggling to understand that level of rookie fever.
  13. Me neither. For me it's basically: Saquon for Sutton/1.01/1.05/random 2021 1st You need to hit big on at least one of those picks or you just traded a top 5 asset for a handful of "pretty good". Depth is always available in dynasty leagues, but once you lose a top end player, they're going to be hard to replace.
  14. The big one for me is Justin Blackmon. What a player at OSU. Saw him live in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Stanford and he was unstoppable. I think he had some very minor off-field stuff in college, but nothing that seemed too serious compared with what most college kids are getting up to. Then he gets to the NFL and just falls apart. No motivation to play. You can see that the talent is off the charts because he has some monster games when he's healthy and not suspended, but he can't keep it together. Takes his paychecks and bails. Rashaun Woods was the same, except without the same immediate success. The motivation to play football was not there. This has nothing to do with CEH specifically, but is just a general reason not to get too carried away with an incoming class. After the NFL season ends, people spend the next 3-4 months studying the draft class and start to fall in love with the prospects, envisioning the best-case scenario while underplaying all the many things that can go wrong. There are so many ways these guys can underwhelm. Let's consider this RB cluster of CEH/Swift/Taylor/Akers/Dobbins/Dillon/Vaughn/Moss/Evans. When we look back on this class in a few years, there will probably be 1-2 legitimate stars from that group, a couple guys who had pockets of utility, and a few guys who fell completely off the face of the Earth. Every now and then you get an amazing group like 2008 that yields a bevy of viable FF players (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, CJ2K, Rice, Charles), but there are so many potholes these guys trip over. They can get hurt, get in trouble, unexpectedly get RBBCed by a draft pick, lose their motivation to play, or simply bust because their talent isn't up to par. You take guys who offer a solid risk/reward value and hope for the best. As far as Clyde goes, I'm fine with his startup/rookie ADP, but you can't really say he's insane value unless he becomes a perennial top 4-5 FF RB because he's already going ~RB10 in startups. It seems like a solid compromise between risk/reward, but not an amazing buy given that he's already not cheap.
  15. Lines up with some of my thoughts about the rookie RB class being overdrafted in FF while people like Aiyuk and Duvernay should probably go a little higher. That said, I'm not going to tout AJ Dillon no matter how undervalued he looks. Not my type of player. To answer your question, I think the main variable this year is opportunity for a lot of these guys. An abnormally high percentage of the top RB prospects landed on teams with an underwhelming/aging incumbent, so people are keen on the idea of the immediate points. Last year we had Harris and Mattison slipping to the 20-30 range of some rookie drafts because their path to immediate relevance was blocked. I don't see someone like Vaughn as being more talented than someone like Harris (I actually think Harris was the better prospect), but he's on a team where he can maybe be the guy in year one and a lot of owners are drafting for the early return. CEH, Taylor, Swift, Akers, and Vaughn are all possible year one starters. You can see a path to early PT for Dillon and Dobbins as well. Moss is slightly blocked, but Singletary is not an established star in his own right. Nobody here got the Bernard Pierce, Toby Gerhart, or Christine Michael treatment where he landed behind a rock star.