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EBF last won the day on May 18 2013

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About EBF

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  1. Yea, bet on talent. Chubb is miles better than Ito in terms of individual ability. Even if he gets bottled up for most of the game, he's the kind of guy who can break a 50 yarder out of thin air.
  2. Your backup RB looks dynamite in spot duty, you talk about getting him more touches, and then you trade your starter. It's all systems go for me. Duke Johnson will vulture some catches and Chubb probably won't be strong enough in the receptions department to carry FF teams in the same way that somebody like Barkley can, but you still have to be excited about this news. He immediately jumps up into the redraft RB2 and maybe fringe RB1 conversation.
  3. EBF

    Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

    Drake is RB25 in my PPR leagues, so not that far below his dynasty or redraft ADP. "Flop" seems a bit harsh, although I've been surprised by how much Gase has utilized Gore instead. I thought Gore would get some work, but not this much. I still feel decent rolling out Drake as a RB2 in PPR leagues. Mixon has taken strides in year two and Conner is having one of those magic seasons that win people titles, though I'm not sold he's an elite dynasty piece. I wasn't a Michel fan when he was drafted and the early buzz was scary with his injury issues, but his owners have to be pleased with the last month. As much as I liked Barkley in college and around draft time, he looks even better than expected. #1 dynasty player for me AINEC. I agree that the RB landscape has taken a hit overall, but there are some good stories too.
  4. I think it's a "know your league" situation. It is always easy to reload at QB in this league, and conversely it's hard to get great value for them in trades. I did get a first for Wilson a couple years ago in a different league with the same format, but that's rare. When I traded Cam a year or two ago, the best I could get was two 2nd round picks from a playoff team. I got Mahomes with the 26th rookie pick last year. Wentz and Goff with the 20th and 24th two years ago. Mayfield went 20th this year. Meanwhile we start 5 players between RB and WR every week, so there's a huge demand for RB/WR and most people are short there. I probably could've held out and gotten a better deal in the future, but in a 12 team league, almost everyone has a QB who is outscoring Goff this year and people just aren't going to break the bank for a QB when they always need bodies at RB/WR. I'm in 2nd place right now because of Mixon, Drake, Tyreek, JuJu, and Ebron, but after them my next best flex players are Chester Rogers, Marquise Goodwin, and Ty Montgomery. I needed better options. I think it's a trade that will look bad in the future, but really the 3rd round rookie pick I got back should put me within shouting distance of some first round rookie QBs next year and Jackson slots right into my team as a starter, and should enhance my chances of actually thriving in the playoffs this year and perhaps beyond. Given that Goff was maybe never going to play a game for me when I have two guys who are arguably better competing for his spot, I think I can justify trading him light.
  5. Kind of a weird one, so let me explain the situation. This is a 12 team league where QBs tend to be pretty replaceable. I already have Mahomes and Wentz. I needed another flex player for a playoff run. With all that said: Gave: Jared Goff Received: DeSean Jackson, 2020 3rd round rookie pick Not a trade I'd make in a vacuum, but in practice the market for QBs is small in this format and with Mahomes and Wentz already on my team, I just didn't see Goff as an essential piece.
  6. EBF

    Tyreek Hill
  7. Think about how good Marshawn Lynch has been in the NFL. Then add ~20 pounds, more explosiveness, and more speed. That's Barkley, IMO. Hall of Famer if he stays healthy.
  8. Bit melodramatic IMO. He's good. They just don't utilize him enough. It's strange because the rest of their offense is :bag:. Today he had two 20+ yard plays on 13 touches. Most coaches would value that. Gase is apparently eager to be unemployed though. Drake owners just have to hope he wakes up and gives him a little more work.
  9. Looked like he landed hard on his right leg/knee. Hope it's nothing.
  10. EBF

    Ordering The Chaos

    I'm doing better than I ever have in FF despite spending a lot less time on it than I used to. A lot of that is just plugging my leaks and avoiding stupid mistakes. I don't make a lot of dumb trades anymore. In fact, I don't make many trades at all. I mostly just sit back and try to make good decisions on draft day and with waiver pickups. There's no magic bullet there. You just weigh the information and try to make the best estimates you can. In the long run, if you're being proactive and making good decisions, it will pay off. You're right that there's a wealth of information out there, but there's still a lot of uncertainty in FF and your success will largely depend on your ability to accurately navigate that uncertainty. For example, right now you can ask the question, "How many rushing yards will Nick Chubb accumulate in his NFL career?" If you posed that question to 50 FF "experts", you'd probably get a pretty broad range of answers. Optimists might say 7000+. Skeptics might say less than 1000. The average answer is going to be a bland compromise between those two extremes (and thus "expert rankings" and "staff rankings" are generally going to yield a timid compromise that fails to take an actual firm position), yet often times in reality the actual outcome will be a lot more polarized. If you could somehow KNOW a little bit more accurately than that consensus what the real answer is, you would have an edge. This isn't random. Although luck is a factor, we're not flipping coins. We're making predictions based on qualitative and quantitative information. Weirdly, the abundance of FF rankings and advice available to everyone can actually be viewed as an asset to a shrewd FF owner insofar as it creates a rigid, yet flawed set of valuations. The crowd says a player is worth X so we assume that he must indeed be worth X. Enough people tell us that 29 year old Antonio Brown is worth more in dynasty leagues than 20 year old JuJu Smith-Schuster that we take it for granted as truth. We draft and trade accordingly. We take AB over JuJu because we're "supposed to". Yet 2-3 years later, we might see that those valuations were based on faulty analysis and incomplete knowledge. If we'd studied the situation harder and developed our own take in a vacuum deferring to the wisdom of the crowd, maybe we would've taken a different stance. When I think about consensus rankings and the wealth of information out there on ESPN/Yahoo/FBG/etc, I don't find it intimidating because I know so much of it is going to bland, generic information that encourages people to take late bird "prove it" stances in uncertain situations where I might be willing to bet big on my instincts/analysis. That's what I find fun about FF. You get to be the GM and make all the calls. If your methods are poor, you will fail. If they're sound, you will thrive. Win or lose, I wouldn't want to hand over the keys to the autopilot because otherwise what's the point of even playing? When I'm doing any kind of draft in FF, whether it's a devy draft, startup draft, rookie draft, or redraft, my whole process is essentially about capitalizing on consensus rankings. I lay out ADP to get an idea of where I expect people to go based on what other people think they're worth. Then I try to identify players that might be over/under valued. I then try to plan my draft around those players. I haven't done a startup in many years, but typically I only have 20-30 names on my draft sheet, maybe two players per round who look like exceptional value based on the discrepancy between what I think they're worth, and what the market thinks they're worth. If I think a guy like Tyreek Hill or Joe Mixon is a Pro Bowl talent and ESPN's staff rankings are still on the fence, that's actually great for me since they're going to help set a market price for those players that's much lower than what I'm actually willing to pay. The hard part is getting it right enough to pay dividends though, as going out on a limb only works when the players you're targeting actually succeed. I don't think anyone has a magic bullet in terms of picking winners, but there's more access to highlights/tape than ever before if you're an "eyeball test" type of evaluator, and there's an abundance of numbers available if you want to try to mine athletic and statistical metrics. And of course you can dive into places like Twitter and identify your own set of trusted sources to help balance out your own opinions. Really it's all a big puzzle with a lot of floating pieces, and again, it comes down to uncertainty. The better you're able to parse that uncertainty compared with the average competitor, the better you'll do.
  11. Damarea Crockett clips from today. Both clips show off the rare size/speed/explosiveness combination that he has, but the second one shows one of his weaknesses too. He's shifty behind the LOS, but when he gets in the second level he's not great at making cuts in the open field. You can see that his body is moving so fast that he's almost incapable of stopping his momentum and making a cut. Still went for 150 rushing yards today and looks like a guy who is going to crush the combine. I've compard him to Ajayi in the past, but he also looks like he has shades of Christine Michael with the height/weight/SPARQ stuff and the running style.
  12. EBF

    Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

    Kerryon has a long way to go before I'm convinced he's more than just another pretty good back. Even though I'm a youth junkie in dynasty (and in redraft too, for that matter), "young player with potential" is probably the single most overrated population segment in dynasty leagues since many players in the NFL are capable of thriving in spurts, whereas very few are capable of making it last. Did you see what Mike Davis did last weekend? When a mediocre retread has a good week, we know it's just a temporary fluke. When a high pick rookie does it, we automatically assume it's the norm moving forward. Faulty assumption a lot of the time. I'm far from sold on people like Michel and Kerryon. I wouldn't indiscriminately sell every top RB prospect who flashes potential because that's a great way to "sell high" on legit monsters like Zeke, Gurley, and Bell. However, I would generally recommend erring on the side of skepticism with these guys since relatively few of them will have staying power. Personally, I'm a buyer/holder of Chubb, Barkley, and Mixon. I'm a seller of Cook, Kerryon, Michel, and maybe even Fournette if the price is good. I'm a little bit leery of Hunt. Kamara is great, but the system is so friendly there that with all their skill guys I wonder how much of what I'm buying is the player and how much of it is Payton's offense (applies to M Thomas, Ingram, Kamara, and basically everyone in NO).
  13. Grab Hayden Hurst if he is there in your redraft and you need a TE. He has a chance to be really good.
  14. EBF

    Eric Ebron Thread

    He is the second best receiver in the offense, so I'm inclined to believe he's a hold. He's going to have a decent year by volume alone. Ebron isn't as bad as people think. Sure, he was overdrafted and had his fair share of issues in Detroit, but he had his moments too. After his slow start and time in the dog house last year, he actually finished as the #4 TE in PPR in the second half of the season.