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EBF last won the day on May 18 2013

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  1. Barkley is a mutant and McCaffrey in PPR is just too good, but I'd put Mixon on par with these other guys in terms of talent and overall skill set. The difference is that he plays for a more dysfunctional team. I don't like Gordon, but I'd probably take Elliott and Gurley ahead of Mixon in a 2019 redraft. Without actually writing down a list of players, I imagine he'll be a top 10-12 pick in next year's drafts though.
  2. EBF

    Tyreek Hill

    Meh. Not quite what I was looking for from Mahomes/Hill, but not a team killer either. Onward to the weekend games. On the plus side, one of my opponents this week started Keenan Allen.
  3. Took him in one rookie draft, but wish I had drafted him in more. I wouldn't pay more than WR2 prices in dynasty, but he has a chance to be very good. Overall, the dynasty WR landscape looks a little barren to me outside of the obvious high-end guys. You could mine that second tier rookie group of Sutton/Gallup/Kirk looking for a breakout, but those guys won't come cheap since their rookie draft buyers are probably already believers. The value may come in the form of next year's rookie class, as there will surely be some decent talent mixed in there.
  4. EBF

    Tyreek Hill

    No Watkins, a less than 100% Hill, no Hunt. A cold weather Thursday night game. Doesn't really fit the script for a big game, though with SD's offense involved it could definitely turn into a track meet.
  5. EBF

    Tyreek Hill

    Echoing what others have said, I'm playing him (and Mahomes) if he's active. They carried me this far. If it's not meant to be, it's not meant to be, but these guys have been stacking up numbers this year and I think the risk of them going off outweighs the risk of them laying an egg at the most vital juncture. Of course there are going to be hindsight psychics saying "I told you so" if they flop, but these guys are simply too good to bench.
  6. Been a really weird season and even though his touch count has been low and I have zero faith in him from week to week, he's still going to finish with solid year-end RB2 numbers in PPR formats by the time it's all said and done. He feels like a redraft bust to me, yet if you've started him every week then he's actually been fine for his ADP. I don't think he's built for a Zeke/Gurley workload, but at the same time I think Miami hasn't utilized him enough. A coaching change might help...
  7. EBF

    Tyreek Hill

    Another reason to hate Thursday night football. If this were a Sunday game I'm sure he'd go. I think the fact that it's San Diego and a particularly important game means he's probably more likely to play than he would be otherwise. If there's no risk of further injury and it's just a pain tolerance/discomfort thing then I think he'll be out there. I guess the flip side is that if you manage to get past this week, he'll have extra time to heal up for week 16.
  8. EBF

    Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

    I like both Baltimore TEs and don't think it has to be an either-or. They can coexist. Andrews has quietly had a strong season for a rookie TE and it looks as though his game will translate to this level. Hurst is a great athlete and we've seen glimmers of that, but his injury slowed down his impact for this season. I felt like both guys offered great value at the preseason dynasty ADP. Without having current ADP info handy, I'm not sure if that's still the case, but I'm still optimistic about both players.
  9. Hill is one of the most dominant players in the league at the moment. He wouldn't be a "zero" anywhere.
  10. I usually end up with a lot of the same guys because my taste in players is very specific. I guess you could say I break players up intro three groups: high confidence, uncertain confidence, and low confidence. The high confidence group is the small collection of players at any given time that I'm totally bullish on relative to their market price, and those guys will make up the lion's share of my roster in a startup or rookie draft. In any given rookie draft class there may only be 2-3 people per round who I really want on my teams, so if my picks fall into the ADP range of those guys then I end up getting them almost everywhere. I don't worry about diversifying because if you think a guy is value then why wouldn't you want to multiply that investment as much as possible? It's like dealt AA in poker. If you think the hand is profitable, you want to see it as much as possible. I've had it blow up in the past with flops like Kevin White, DeAndre Smelter, and Josh Boyce, but when it works out it's sweet. Right now in five dynasty leagues I have JuJu (x5), Ebron (x4), H Hurst (x4), Mahomes (x4), Tyreek (x3), M Andrews (x3), Zeke (x2), Mixon (x2), Roethlisberger (x2), Drake (x2), and Thielen (x2) as some of my most widely-held players. In a lean year you get killed if your guys get hurt and/or underperform, but when you catch the right wave it's pretty awesome.
  11. Hill is putting up numbers this season that rival anything Calvin ever did. 100.5 yards per game 11.8 yards per target 1 receiving TD per game A TD every 8.5 targets. Dominating the league. Calvin didn't really have a season like that until his 5th year. Calvin was a giant and a monster on jump balls, but Hill is much quicker laterally, quicker off the snap, and faster overall. So far nobody has shown any signs of being able to stop him.
  12. You named three players who've dealt with serious injuries (Watson, Luck, Wentz) and another who has never sniffed a passing season like the one Mahomes is having (Wilson). He's on pace for 54 passing TDs! Only two guys have ever exceeded 50 before (Manning and Brady). Almost every QB who has ever topped 40 is a HoF type of player. That list is Manning, Brady, Marino, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Warner, and Luck. I'd say that's pretty good company for a 23 year old QB. Is regression likely? Well, yea, of course. When you're having a historically good season, of course it's going to be hard to duplicate. Peyton, Marino, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only QBs to throw for 40+ TDs in a season twice, and thus far none of them has done it three times. It's not an easy thing to do. Even with NFL passing numbers trending up across the board, it's going to be hard for Mahomes to chuck 40 or 50 TDs again next year. All the same, here's the problem with "selling high" on a guy who has a monster season like this: What if he's just this good? What if you sold high on Gronk after his "unsustainable" 2011 season? What if you sold high on Peterson after he rushed for 1720 yards in year two? What if you sold high on Randy Moss after his rookie year when he had 17 receiving TDs? Now obviously I'm cherry-picking HoF talents, but it's to demonstrate a point: Special players do special things, and if you're always looking to cash out before regression kicks in then you can end up missing out on incredible careers. Players who can have insane, outlier seasons are often insane outliers in their own right, and IMO those guys are the rarest commodity in FF. It's easy to find those 10-12 ppg types to fill out your lineup, but the Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Gronk/Gonzo/LT/AP/Moss/TO/Calvin types who dominate their position only come around a couple times per decade and if you miss out on them, you're not going to see their kind again for a while. So while I expect Mahomes to regress, the chance that he's another Brees/Peyton level player can't be ignored, and even if he doesn't consistently yield these insane seasons, the fact that he's done it once proves that he can potentially do it again. There's an argument that he's another Stafford, a mid-level QB benefitting from a HoF WR talent, but when you look at that list of 40+ TD QBs, the odds start to look really nice. Those guys are astronauts and for Mahomes to be reaching the same heights in year two seems to bode really well.
  13. I don't want to break out the champagne just yet, but it's a sweet, sweet feeling in dynasty when you go all-in on a player and he repays your faith in droves. I have him in all five of my dynasty leagues and he's been a massive contributor this season. I can honestly say that I never understood what changed from his sophomore to junior season at USC to cause the draft community to drop him from a consensus first round talent to a late 2nd round pick in the actual draft. I said at the time he was a steal and in this case I got it right. As a long-time Pac-12 watcher, I always felt he was one of the best WR prospects to come out of the league in a long time. I think he may face some adversity in the future when AB and Ben begin to decline, but all the same you have to be thrilled with what you're seeing. He's like the hybrid of Demaryius Thomas and Anquan Boldin. Has the same deceptive speed/quickness as DT packed onto the monster frame, yet some of the possession chain-mover qualities of Boldin. Should be a perennial 1000 yard guy as long as health permits.
  14. I have to say, as a multi-league Mahomes owner, the idea that Wilson is in the same tier just doesn't ring true. Any type of offer centered around that swap would be laughed out the door. Mahomes just seems to be in a tier of his own. The next step down for me would be people like Luck, Goff, and Wentz. I like what Mayfield has shown and would be pleased with him as a cheaper alternative.
  15. EBF

    The worst FF move you made?

    Too many to list. Some I've probably scrubbed from my memory altogether. Let's see... - Traded AP for Greg Jennings and a mediocre rookie pick. - Traded Calvin for Crabtree and a 1st round rookie pick. - Traded the pick that could've been Melvin Gordon for Jordan Cameron (1.5 PPR for TE with mixed TE/WR eligibility). - Drafted Kevin White over Todd Gurley in multiple leagues. - Drafted Ebron ahead of OBJ. I've gotten a lot better about not spewing, but this year I did shift Chubb for Drake in one league (still have Chubb elsewhere though). That one's going to sting.