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EBF

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EBF last won the day on May 18 2013

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  1. Ended up getting Deebo in 3/5 rookie drafts. I think he has a reasonable chance to lead all rookie WRs in receptions + yards, and to be the top FF WR on the 49ers next year. Athletically, he brings a lot to the table. Big, strong, and more explosive than you think. Dangerous in the open field. Rookie WRs are a bit of a crapshoot, but his play style is about athleticism and RAC skills more than precise routes and technique, so I think he's going to be able to hit the ground running better than many of his rookie peers. You look at SF's WR group and they really don't have much, especially when it comes to consistent chain movers. I'm thinking a JuJu --- Boldin range for his rookie year is possible if everything clicks right. He's a guy that I'd be looking to steal in best ball drafts and as a late round flyer in standard redrafts. In dynasty, I have him as a top 5 rookie in this draft, neck-and-neck with Brown and Harry among the WRs. I think he's a high floor player and very unlikely to be a flop. In my estimation he is the most talented WR on the Niners by some distance.
  2. For me it's Mixon as the clear #1, then Chubb, then a dropoff to the other guys. Age is pretty important in dynasty. Mixon is fully capable of outscoring all those veterans next season, and is much younger. You're looking at a 5 year gap between Mixon and DJ, so you'd have to think DJ has a massively favorable short-term outlook to prefer him, and I just don't see that. Mixon has every chance of outscoring him in 2019, let alone every other year going forward. Gurley for me is an avoid-at-all-costs guy right now in dynasty simply because I think his value is too volatile to justify the price tag. Maybe he'll be brilliant. Maybe he'll be gimped forever. I'm not giving up a top 10-20 startup pick to find out when I can get other cornerstone players with no ??? in that range.
  3. Knox is a little bit heavier and listed height/weights don't always tell you everything about body type since limb proportion can vary. You can have two players with the same dimensions on paper, but maybe one of them has relatively long legs for his height, etc. That can affect how the athlete moves. Fant is straight line explosive, but not an overly agile or elusive athlete. If you watch his clips, mostly he is winning on vertical routes and rounded breaks. He doesn't have elite mobility for a TE. He is more of a strider. More athletic with more base strength and agility, but cut from the same cloth as Funchess and Gesicki. He and Njoku are similar. Both want to win by exploiting their length and not necessarily by shaking people on sharp breaks or in space. Example #1: https://youtu.be/Vo2tFRc85EI?t=77 He catches the ball near the sideline with more than 10 yards separating him from the incoming tackler, but despite having the time and space to make a move, he is unable to suddenly redirect his momentum and instead opts to barrel right into the defender. Example #2: https://youtu.be/Vo2tFRc85EI?t=297 He catches the ball with a chance to make a move. He makes a pretty good cut, but still gets tackled by the first man. This is par for the course to some extent with TEs because they sacrifice mobility for size. Gronk was not an elusive player. Kelce is not a very shifty guy. For that matter, neither was Calvin Johnson. There are other ways to beat a defender and Fant has good north-south explosiveness and length for a TE. I think he is a better version of Gesicki and a better prospect than Knox, but I'd rate his mobility below the best TEs I've evaluated (Eifert, Ebron, Hurst). Just pulling up one Hurst highlight reel shows some plays that Fant probably can't make: Plant and drive quickness in a small window to elude a tackler: https://youtu.be/rqhFG2IxqGI?t=75 This cut here (watch the replay too): https://youtu.be/rqhFG2IxqGI?t=162 Handling the ball on a reverse: https://youtu.be/rqhFG2IxqGI?t=184 That last play is nothing incredible, but that's your 250+ pound TE getting CARRIES in the running game. Very unusual athleticism. I still have Hockenson and Fant rated above the other TEs in this draft, but what makes it interesting is the relative value-per-cost. Both of those guys tend to come off the board relatively high, usually within the first 10-15 picks. On the other hand, I've gotten Warring, Oliver, and Knox in the 3rd-4th round of many leagues. I think the first round guys are better prospects, but I think the third round guys are better value, if that makes sense. Knox is tougher to evaluate than some guys because they used him so sparingly as a pass catcher, but I like what I see. He has the prototypical height/weight/speed/explosiveness and on the field you see a loose athlete who runs on a swivel and has good hip flexibility. I'm not going to get carried away with a projection, but this is a guy you can stash for a very low entry cost who probably has top 10-12 TE upside in FF leagues. In TE-premium I would take him over many of the 2nd-3rd round WRs.
  4. Totally different style from Gesicki, who is a tall/linear player like Fant. Gesicki is the type who tests well, but doesn't move well on the field. Very straight-line in his athleticism. Knox is a better athlete in terms of quickness, strength, and agility. Stronger lower body than Gesicki. He is more like a Cooley type. Expecting anything from rookie TEs is usually folly, so the Kroft injury doesn't really matter much to me, but long-term I think Knox is a good prospect. I got him in one rookie draft and made a huge waiver claim to get him in another league. Very good value at his low ADP. I've said it elsewhere, but the value-per-cost of that Warring/Knox/Oliver trio of 3rd round TEs is very good in most leagues right now. IMO they are better prospects than many of the RB/WR selected ahead of them, though obviously you have to factor in positional value.
  5. When I look at his dimensions and watch his clips, I see a WR. They can call him whatever they want, but I'm not sure the RB experiment is going to work. I'd be more excited about his outlook if they just caved and made him a slot guy.
  6. No, often they are underdrafted because of the whole unproven bit. The Niners don't have much at WR and there's a good argument that Deebo is their best talent there. I don't think his play style will require a long adjustment to the NFL. I haven't looked at redraft ADP yet, but I'm guessing his ADP is so low that he's essentially found money. Well worth a shot.
  7. I think Deebo could lead the Niners WRs in receptions this year.
  8. Well, Hardman was the higher NFL pick and has the better QB, so it's not necessarily something you need to feel bad about. I didn't love his film, but that doesn't mean I'm not wrong. There's been some conversation in this thread about which traits are most important for a WR and Isabella will be an interesting case study in that. People who covet big, rangy jump ball WRs with basketball skills are going to hate him because those are the areas where he's pitiful. On the other hand, he has elite speed, college production, and is a pretty good route runner overall. Though short, he is solidly built. Stronger than the likes of Diontae and Hardman. If you're a movement/athleticism guy then you have to be intrigued, even if there are reservations. The question is this: Are the things he figures to be really good at (speed/routes) enough to overcome the areas where he's deficient (height/contested balls)? I don't have the answer there, which is why I've cited him as a boom-or-bust prospect. In PPR, I can honestly see him becoming the best player from this draft. It sounds crazy, but if it pans out then he could be like a turbo Welker catching 90-100 balls per year and destroying people out of the slot. There is a lot of risk though and with his hands and small frame, you can also envision him being a big flop. I didn't have a lot of early 2nd round rookie picks this year, which is the range of the rookie draft where I like the risk/reward equation for Isabella, but I did move up to snag him in one league because I just wanted to own him on at least one roster in case he happens to go nuclear.
  9. Thanks. It's funny how perception of value works sometimes. N'Keal Harry goes at pick #32 to NE and becomes a top 2-3 pick in every PPR rookie draft. He's a "first round pick" playing with a HoF QB. Deebo Samuel comes off the board a whopping 4 picks later at #36 overall and regularly falls to the 8-12 range in the same PPR rookie drafts. I actually got him at the 2.05 spot in a 12 team QB-premium league where 1-2 relevant FAs also went ahead of him. Very surprised he was still there. A similar thing is going on with Montgomery and Singletary. Singletary was picked exactly one spot lower in the NFL draft, but often falls a full round lower in rookie drafts. In that case it's largely down to people putting a premium on the potential for instant results since Montgomery figures to be a day one starter whereas Singletary doesn't, but I do think these examples illustrate how the FF community can somewhat arbitrarily perceive huge value disparities between two commodities that actually look pretty similar on paper. Is the difference between Harry and Samuel that we see in rookie ADP really justified? I'm open to the idea that Harry > Samuel, but I have it pretty close and can see it going the other way as well. Deebo is a pretty great athlete considering his size/strength and figures to be the best WR on the 49ers right out of the box. Maybe people are overrating the Brady factor with Harry, whose play style and role may require more seasoning than the RAC game of Deebo. Brady is 41 (!!!) and will turn 42 before opening day, so the perceived advantage that Harry has with his HoF QB is something that may not last very long at all. Anyway, Deebo's frame almost looks too heavy for a WR, more like a RB or TE, but his combine performance and game film don't show a lack of mobility. He ran 4.49, jumped 39" in the vertical, and did a respectable 10'2" in the broad jump. His game clips show that he gets off the line quickly and is a dangerous runner with the ball in his hands. It's an interesting combination of skills. As I've said previously, I think he's somewhere in the general ballpark of Boldin/JuJu/Crabtree. His pure possession game likely isn't as good as those guys. I believe Crab had very long arms for his height and I know he was a standout in jump ball/red zone situations. I don't think Deebo is as strong in that department, but he's not terrible in those spots and his RAC ability is comparable to those guys I listed. I don't want to hype him too much, but I think he's a player who's simply a little underrated in this draft class. He was the third WR drafted and the fourth RB/WR drafted. When you think of it that way, my ranking of him as a top 5 guy might be more reflective of where he SHOULD BE going than the 10+ slot you often see him fall to. I think it's a minor market inefficiency and I've been happy to take advantage of it. I ended up getting him in 3/5 rookie drafts. In one of the leagues where I missed him, I essentially had no picks. In the other league, I had the #11 pick and two second rounders and made a conscious decision not to trade up because A.) he might have fallen to me anyway and B.) I needed depth and wanted to diversify my portfolio ever so slightly. In general though, he's my go-to pick in the back half of the first round of this year's rookie draft, as I think you're getting a top 5 prospect in this class without having to actually spend a top 5 pick.
  10. Some minor RB/WR tier adjustments after having had a bit more time to go through drafts and digest everything. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders ----------------------- RB Miles Sanders, Eagles RB Darrell Henderson, Rams RB David Montgomery, Bears RB Devin Singletary, Bills ----------------------- RB Damien Harris, Patriots RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings Feel pretty confident that Jacobs will be solid. He's my #1 rookie pick still. I still like Sanders and would take him ahead of the other day two backs, but the lack of any single elite physical trait pushes him down into the second group. I like his clips and his quickness stands out, but he's also in dangerous territory as a 210 pound back with just good and not great speed/power. He lacks the extra something of a top prospect and that's probably why he fell into day two. On the other hand, Singletary moves up into the second tier. The lack of speed is a concern, but I like his clips, he was picked in the same general range as these other guys, and he goes to a team with an aging starter where he's a natural like-for-like replacement. Not a tier one guy or a can't-miss prospect, but when you look at the ADP vs. the value, there's a good argument that he's underrated. My take on Montgomery hasn't changed at all. Very strong immediate opportunity and a chance to be FF ROY, but lack of burst gives him long-term JAG potential and job security question marks. I like Henderson's metrics more than his tape, but on the strength of draft slot, profile, and production; I think he belongs about where I have him here. I think I had Harris overrated on the first pass. The characterization of him as a high floor/low ceiling type is probably accurate, but I've overrated some players of that ilk in the past (i.e. Perine, S Greene). If Michel's injury stuff lingers then there's a sneaky upside to get NE's starter, but he's not an obvious talent tier ahead of the other day two backs and his short-term opportunity is pretty bad. He may be confined to an 800-900 total yards role for the foreseeable future. I like him as a mid-late 2nd round rookie pick, but the top 10 where I had him initially was too high. WR AJ Brown, Titans WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots ----------------------- WR Marquise Brown, Ravens WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals ----------------------- WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles WR Parris Campbell, Colts WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers ----------------------- WR Miles Boykin, Ravens WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins WR Hakeem Butler, Cardinals More or less sticking to my guns here. I'm relatively confident in the top 3 and would use a top 5 rookie on any of them. The second tier is my flawed-but-intriguing group. Isabella and Brown have issues, but clear upside and some elite traits. I lean towards Metcalf being a bust, but the boom potential if he hits is so high that you have to give it some weight. Not in love with the other tiers, as I'm generally passing on Hardman/JJAW/Campbell at their ADP. Johnson is usually a bit cheaper, so would be more likely to find his way onto one of my rosters, but I'm not particularly a fan. Generally, I'm confident in the first tier, intrigued by the second tier, and skeptical of the third tier. Based on the odds, it's highly likely that I'm missing the boat on at least one of those tier 3-4 WRs, but I'm not a buyer today without the benefit of hindsight.
  11. Explosive ≠ athletic. Mark Harrison (listed on that link) was a different style of player, but was a great example of this. Explosive leaper and sprinter. Very sub par athlete in terms of fluidity, routes, and WR skills. The inverse would be the Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen types. Poor testers. Athletic on the field. Butler doesn't move well with or without the ball. Doesn't play up to his 40 time either. He is not functionally athletic.
  12. The initial move is good and I saw a clip from another game where some people fell off him and let him get free, but generally he's not much of a RAC threat. He doesn't have much ability to make cuts in space. Not a lot of pitter-patter quickness. He's more of a straight-line guy. A-Rob at Penn State was so good in these situations that they would throw several screens his way every game. https://youtu.be/5Xm3MFgJaD4?t=2 Even AJ Green, who's a downfield/finesse WR with a thin frame and not my idea of RAC specialist, was used like this: https://youtu.be/K3fevGVe4qE?t=62 I remember when Demaryius was a rookie for Denver they used him on KRs because he was so unusually mobile. Vincent Jackson in college was a pretty good return man in addition to his WR duties. That's what you're looking for. Exceptional mobility. Butler is a limited athlete compared to most of the successful NFL WRs, and it's more down to what you see in his clips than his combine metrics, which look fine. He's going to struggle to win with routes and athleticism. So then you think, 'Well, he's still tall, and he has long arms. Maybe he can win that way.' The problem there, as we talked about, is that he's not a great pure receiver either. So you've got a flawed athlete with flawed positional skills. Maybe they can still get something out of him. He had great production last season. I'm not a fan though and his ADP is quite high, which really renders it totally moot. People are taking this guy in the 12-15 range. Way too high. I don't see what they're seeing to justify those selections. To me, as a guy who sat on the sidelines during this CFB season and caught up late, it feels like a case where some people built this guy up during the pre-draft process into something he's not and then failed to sufficiently correct the mistake when the NFL returned a "meh" verdict with his draft slot. Of course, you have to go with your gut to some degree and if he pans out then those people will be ecstatic to have gotten him where they did in these rookie drafts, but I think I've laid out a fair case against him.
  13. This ties back into the JJAW discussion a bit earlier, as it's the same idea. The #1 thing I look for when I'm evaluating WRs is athleticism and movement. People talk about route running technique, but I question how much of running precise routes is learnable and how much of it is simply innate athleticism. Just like there are RBs who are physically incapable of making sharp cuts at full speed, so too it seems there are WRs who innately have less ability to move smoothly and explode out of their breaks. This is one reason why I was relatively optimistic about Allen Robinson even though he had a less-than-impressive 4.60 40 time. In addition to having good jump ball skills, he was a player with elite body control and plant-and-drive quickness, which showed up in his open field running and in his routes. Here is an example of a nice break: https://youtu.be/5Xm3MFgJaD4?t=81 And here's an example of some of his RAC stuff: https://youtu.be/K-cuNKb4Kjk?t=130 Here's an example from Michael Thomas with a sharp break and instant transition to RAC: https://youtu.be/Mzzpx4WQmb8?t=35 Two relevant plays from JuJu that I linked above: https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s Now, I'm cherry-picking good reps, but what all these plays show is suddenness, efficient movement with a minimum of wasted motion, and the ability to generate a lot of separation with 1-2 simple moves. Contrast that with some plays by Butler. Play #1: https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=162 Play #2 (very late throw by QB, but slow route too): https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=256 Play #3: https://youtu.be/QSNDpJaaYVE?t=401 Play #4 (this is a lot better): https://youtu.be/3TuLxb9rDXE?t=309 This is a little unfair to Butler because I've picked some of his worst reps. He does have some better reps than this and some games such as the Iowa game where he did a little bit better at getting open. Sometimes he was victimized by poor QB play as well, but generally I think his movement is below the level that you want. For a 4.49 guy, he climbs the ladder very slowly and doesn't threaten anyone with speed off the line. His speed is very built up. He can stop and turn pretty quickly, but doesn't explode out of his breaks and lacks a bit of suddenness in his routes. And although he is a tall guy, he has a wispy frame without great functional base strength. He's really more of a finesse player in style, like a Sidney Rice or AJ Green, but he doesn't have anywhere near the body control/ball skills. So how does he win on Sundays? His movement isn't that good. He will get swallowed up on a lot of short routes and while his long speed is good, it's not elite and teams will try to take that away. He has height and length, but doesn't have elite possession/contested skills to fully capitalize on that. I don't seen an obvious path to dominance unless he improves considerably.
  14. So you don't understand how size and strength are valuable in football? What sport have you been watching all these years? Imagine two versions of Larry Fitzgerald that are exactly the same, except one weighs 198 instead of 218. Which would be tougher to jam? Which would be tougher to cover on a contested catch? Which would be tougher to tackle? Imagine two versions of Saquon Barkley that are the exact same, except one weighs 203 instead of 233. Which would be tougher to tackle? All else being equal (maybe this is the point you are missing), obviously you want the bigger and stronger player.