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heropretend

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About heropretend

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  1. Pretty sound advice again, but I feel some of your posts seem like you are suggesting that everyone needs to go ALL IN on energy stocks. Sure you can average down and look good in 10 years, but you're managing millions. Individual investors can't afford to average down stocks until they're long term investments without going significantly overweight. If the energy market goes lower or just stays low for longer than anyone anticipates than the guy with 10k in a rothira buys XOM and is just a few bad months before they sell XOM at a 30% haircut to buy up some USO cause they didn't like that the oil price increases didn't correlate with XOM share price. And then they find this thread.
  2. You must be hanging around some serious fans. I only have a handful of friends with the watch and they love Apple. Most people that buy iPhones do so because they are a good, easy-to-use product that they are familiar with, not because they are running a status ladder against other Apple users. If the watch does well it's going to be for the same reasons.Watches can already be luxury status symbols. If that's important to you, you aren't buying an Apple Watch. iPhones are priced around $650 and a great upper end budget Moto G 3rd gen is $220. I don't want to talk contracts or anything and upgrade cycles. Merely pointing out, there is a huge difference in price without a huge difference in useability. The Apple Watch is just starting to gain traction and you do have a handful of friends who bought it. I do too. I don't see them flashing it as a status symbol, but at the same time I haven't heard a great reason to buy one from people using it. That leads me to believe they are buying it only to differentiate their IPhone/iSTATUS from their parents' or colleagues' iPhoniness. The Apple Watch is useless to me and you and yet quarterly sales of "other" jumped $1.6 billion. Those aren't apple tv and headphone sales. The Galaxy S5 was priced about the same as the 6 as I recall. Apple phones carry a premium, but it's not $400.The "other" category exists so they can mask sales of individual products. That doesn't mean that sales were bad, but if they were good, we would have heard about it elsewhere I suspect. If you have the disposable income and like Apple products I don't see why you wouldn't try it out. They are kind of fun even if not overly useful. They will improve it I'm sure, but I think it really needs to differentiate itself beyond an extension of the phone to get much traction. The Moto G 3rd gen is really $220 unlocked and new. The Nexus 5x is at $300 new right now. These phones work on all carriers and the price difference is $470 and $390 while the average iphone price last quarter was $690. Those are good but not great phones that work well for the majority of people at a fraction of the cost. People don't buy those phones because it's not an iPhone. It's like a cast iron pot, people buy a le creuset over a lodge logic or kirkland. These are status symbols. The iPhone is unique is because it's a status symbol that everyone thinks is better AND everyone owns. The other category grew $1.6 billion with no other significant product rebooted. It's pretty safe to assume the headphone, iPod and apple tv markets aren't responsible for the $1.6 billion growth. How can you really explain $1.6 billion increase in "other" if you're not tying it to the watch?
  3. You must be hanging around some serious fans. I only have a handful of friends with the watch and they love Apple. Most people that buy iPhones do so because they are a good, easy-to-use product that they are familiar with, not because they are running a status ladder against other Apple users. If the watch does well it's going to be for the same reasons.Watches can already be luxury status symbols. If that's important to you, you aren't buying an Apple Watch. iPhones are priced around $650 and a great upper end budget Moto G 3rd gen is $220. I don't want to talk contracts or anything and upgrade cycles. Merely pointing out, there is a huge difference in price without a huge difference in useability. The Apple Watch is just starting to gain traction and you do have a handful of friends who bought it. I do too. I don't see them flashing it as a status symbol, but at the same time I haven't heard a great reason to buy one from people using it. That leads me to believe they are buying it only to differentiate their IPhone/iSTATUS from their parents' or colleagues' iPhoniness. The Apple Watch is useless to me and you and yet quarterly sales of "other" jumped $1.6 billion. Those aren't apple tv and headphone sales.
  4. There are tons of reasons oil can stay low for longer and break Todem. Fracking can stop and start production on a dime. There doesn't seem to be any worry of supply not meeting demand. Fusion and alternative technology is advancing. Hydrogen, fuel cell, nuclear, solar, wind etc. Global environment concerns. Look at some coal charts, coal divesting, etc. The oil industry might be the next target of big government. Oil reliant countries are generally unstable and don't work well together. What country cuts first? Self driving cars, different modes of transportation, etc will use less non-renewables China is slowing, Europe in recession. US projects slow growth into 2035. I'm not predicting the end of oil, but: Energy demand is growing slowly and looks to continue slowing. Energy supply is growing due to: 1. inability of companies/countries to curb production as they hope to service their debts. 2. efficiency of use and alternatives
  5. I'm starting to see the Apple Watch as a means of iPhone users signaling their status over other iPhone users. Wherever we go with wearables or VR or cars, with Apple's perception as a luxury brand and best in class design, Apple is going to dominate the market. If everyone owns an iPhone then its no longer an iPhone cycle, but an Apple Watch or Apple glasses or Apple Car cycle that then upgrades into perpetuity. If everything is an extension of the iPhone then Apple's long term potential market to takeover is every luxury/status symbol.
  6. High gas prices, blame Obama Low gas prices, blame Obama
  7. used to buy FAZ and SKF back in the day. Lost more than my current net worth. Hope everyone watching this thread sees how destructive leveraged etfs are.
  8. Gold miners are all sick and indebted. Same condition as oil. Gold itself, I feel pretty strongly that public speculation in gold etfs and not economic/currency fear drove the price of gold up. When Argentinans are fearful of inflation they horde USD, when Asians are cautious they buy direct flight from Asia to US real estate, etc. GLD and GDX 2012 levels probably won't be reached unless every incoming producing asset and currency alternative plus paypal plus bitcoin and bitcoin alternatives plus inflation and capital protecting assets all go #### up.
  9. http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/01/15/how-bad-is-the-commodity-related-debt-crisis/ "The amount of commodity related debt whose share prices are trading under $5 is now an astounding $526 billion." With these guys indebted, will the safer names cut production or wait for a flush out? Do you guys see oil and commodities rebounding before the supply and debt issues are resolved?
  10. Agree with the sentiment. I'm adding aggressively to VGT over the next few months and will pick up some GOOG, MSFT, FB, AMZN since I prefer those names to AAPL and would like to be equally invested (VGT doesn't hold AMZN and its biggest holding is AAPL).
  11. I wouldn't go all in, but a piece of a Roth makes sense to me. Historically its been up to 100x that price. Hitting that return tax-free would be really sweet. Of course the Middle East is so stable, there no way we could likely have any future oil supply disruptions to drive the price back up./sarcasm So, this was a joke too? This thread is full of oil trades. Until you start seeing numerous defaults and bankruptcies AND supply come down, it's a gamble with huge potential losses. What do you think any of us know about Middle East stability AND how it will impact oil supply?
  12. UCO could lose money due to fees and decay right even if oil prices were flat. Imagine oil price $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of oil is: day 1: $1.25 day 2: $1 In the 2x ultra oil fund if the price starts at $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of the leveraged 2x fund is: day 1: $1.50 day 2: 0.90 Holding ultras on the short or long side is capital destroying. Even if price direction is fairly steady up or down, eventually the bottom falls out and the fund reverse splits 1:5. Based on this it sounds like shorting it long term would be profitable, no? At any rate, it's so low now that I'm thinking about trying to catch a falling knife yet again You want steady and small price direction when you're long, short too. Short, you're also going to need zero percent borrowing costs and a forgiving broker.
  13. Got it. I have no idea how things will turn out, and I apologize for not reading carefully. But, the opportunity cost of say 6% indexed needs to be factored in if most of your money is on the sideline.
  14. UCO could lose money due to fees and decay right even if oil prices were flat. Imagine oil price $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of oil is: day 1: $1.25 day 2: $1 In the 2x ultra oil fund if the price starts at $1. If oil gains 25% day 1 and loses 20% day 2 then the price of the leveraged 2x fund is: day 1: $1.50 day 2: 0.90 Holding ultras on the short or long side is capital destroying. Even if price direction is fairly steady up or down, eventually the bottom falls out and the fund reverse splits 1:5.
  15. I pulled my wife's 401K to the sidelines in Sept. I was hard leaving it there through the subsequent run up, but I'm glad I did, at this point. May put it in Treasuries or something until I feel the craziness is over. In my portfolio (investment account outside retirement) I now have: ETF shorts or ultrashorts on NASDAQ (SQQQ), S&P (SPXU), Financials (FAZ), Consumer Goods (SZK), China (ASIA), and Russia (YANG) VIX and TVIX UCO - don't have a whole lot, but everytime it hits a new low, I pick up a few hundred shares. I did a similar strategy in Sept. and by Oct. I was up 25%. I held too long (or sold too soon) and cratered at about -35%. I am now down 10% since opening the account in Sept. The one I really f'ed up was DWTI. I was in it pretty heavy and sold off, losing about 25% overall on that play. Had I held it until today it would have been up over 100%. That's my logic on the UCO, if I hold it long enough, it will spike at some point. In my IRAs, I've done really well, bouncing from short ETFs, then some biotechs (ILMN, ADAP) I got low and watched run up, but closed them out to cash, except for a decent chunk in RAI (because I am addicted to American Spirit full flavored organic cigarettes, the most highly addictive cigarette on the market), and they seem fairly impervious to all the recent hubbub. I'm thinking I should maybe be buying UCO in the IRAs. They could/should easily quadruple at some point in the next few years and it would be nice to have them in a non-taxable earnings account. I'm not recommending this strategy, just sharing.. Wouldn't a reasonable strategy be to keep 50% indexed and 50% in a bond fund and/or horde cash to rebalance and/or deploy if the market crashes 20% or more? Your strategy sounds like gambling.