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About moleculo

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  • Birthday 04/23/1975

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  1. good stuff in here.
  2. Good stuff. I should say that I actually use a dynamic VBD to draft with, and I use ADP to generate the moving baseline as the draft progresses. That being said, I do like to find static VBD pre-draft for analysis like this, but also to print up a 1page sheet to have just in case my computer craps out during the draft. To your more specific points: 1. I'm not sure I buy that. There is turnover at the high end of all positions. Defenses (and especially kickers) are drafted late because the best one isn't all that much better than the 15th one. 2. It sounds like you have adjusted your QB baseline up, which is what I found I had to do to make my overrated/underrated lists even out (i.e. as many QBs overrated as underrated, relative to ADP). 3. Agreed, but I don't really have the ability to quantify this. I will say I'm not comfortable projecting injury or games missed.
  3. Single woman with kids, roughly the same age as yours? Come on man, this is like shooting fish in a barrell.
  4. I think that's all part of the plan. By doing so, he can tell everyone exactly what they want to hear. If questioned on any discrepancy, he can fall back on blaming the media for twisting his words and not reporting the truth (as in, what ever truth you want to hear). It will be impossible to pin him down on anything, except for the widely held notion that the press is in the bag for Hillary. Sad!
  5. If I set the following as baselines, everything balances out (i.e. just as many QB's overvalued as undervalued, just as many RB's overvalued as undervalued, etc): QB6 RB34 WR36 TE6 I'm not completely sure what to do with this info, but it's interesting I think. This is an exercise in making VBD baselines match up roughly with ADP. One thing to note: changing the TE baseline from TE12 to TE6 changed Gronkowski from the most undervalued player to the 4th most overvalued. Again, I'm not completely sure what that means.
  6. TL;DR> TE's and QB's are underrated, RB's are overrated. using free projections from around the web (FFToday, Fantasy Sharks, ESPN, CBS). I have generated a set of VBD rankings assuming PPR and 4 points per passing TD. I was curious to see how this VBD ranking compares to average draft position (using ADP from, but the general trend seems to hold). Comparing player to player and seeing the number of spots isn't a very good way to do this because a difference of a few spots in round 1 is much more significant than a few spots in round 10. Instead, I use the draft trade chart to determine value in both VBD rankings and ADP rankings, and compared the difference. Here's how it works: Cam Newton, for example, has a VBD value of 78 points. That places him 18th overall, worth 900 points. In ADP, Cam is being drafted at 3.11: good for 550 points. comparing the two, Newton is undervalued by 350 points. I do this for all players, and I have a good sense of who is underrated and who is overrated (per my projections and ADP). the top 10 underrated players: Rob Gronkowsk NE Jordan Reed WAS Alshon Jeffery CHI Keenan Allen SD Cam Newton CAR Russel Wilson SEA Travis Kelce KC Antoni Gates SD Zach Ertz PHI Tom Brady NE the top 10 overrated players: Adrian Peterson MIN Ezekiel Elliott DAL Dion Lewis NE Allen Robinson JAC Le'Veon Bell PIT Thomas Rawls SEA Eddie Lacy GB A.J. Green CIN Lamar Miller HOU Josh Gordon CLE Discussion: a clear pattern emerges: TE dominates the underrated list and RB dominates the overrated list. I only displayed the top 10 of each list, but if I extend out to 20, 5 of the top 20 are QB's and 8 are TE's. There are no TE's or QB's anywhere on the overrated side. Conversely, 16 RB's are overrated (none underrated). That being said, I'm not sure what to do with that info. If your league has an early run on RB's and you miss out, that puts you in a bad spot if you bulk up on QB's and TE's. It's important to keep ADP in mind and try to stay ahead of the runs, IMO. a few points to note: For Brady, I prorated his projections so he should be drafted as if he were playing 16 games. ADP data is an average of drafts, many of which happened before Dion Lewis injury news was out there. Also, LeVeon Bell's suspension. I can get these to shift around by playing with the relative baselines. The above uses worst starter as VBD baseline. I will continue to tweak to see if I can find a better balance. Conclusions: If you believe in VBD and last-starter baseline, you should go into the draft with the understanding that nearly all TE's are underrated and many QB's are. You should be aware that nearly all RB's are being drafted earlier than they should be. That being said, the clear trend of most RB's being overvalued and TE's being undervalued leads me to think that worst-starter may not be an appropriate baseline. to be continued...
  7. to murky up the water a little bit, Sanchez is practicing with the 1s today. Apparently Siemian hurt his shoulder trying to make the tackle on the pick-6 last Saturday.
  8. So I'm backing down from my above statement that the bronco D will be better in 2016 than they were in 2015. The starters looks just as dominant as ever, but I was pretty disappointed with some of the depth play - losing contain, etc. My prognosis of a better D overall had to do with camp reports of dominant depth, and that may not be the case. Regardless - Siemian looked pretty darn good at taking what the D gave him. He made one bad read and got burned on it - welcome to the first string NFL, kid. That being said, he never challenged the D deep - I feel like he was playing way conservative (which isn't a bad thing). his play-action bootleg pass to Green was a thing of beauty. Sanchez gonna Sanchez. He had moments where he looked really good - hitting some deep stuff, keeping the defense backed off the LoS, and then he goes and fumbles twice inside of 2:00. not good. My assessment is that Sanchez has literally no pocket presence. Where a QB like Manning or Brady can easily side-step a blitz and just glide around in there, Sanchez feels pressure and finds a lineman to run into. At this point, Sanchez is who he is. Siemian, however, has potential. We really don't know how good he is.
  9. Cameron WolfeVerified account‏@CameronWolfe Kubiak wouldn't say it, but seems fairly apparent. This is Siemian's gig right now. He's gotta play well Saturday though.
  10. Cecil Lammey‏@CecilLammey #Broncos Kubiak "No [ Siemian is not in the lead ] -- we still move on with our competition."
  11. Cecil Lammey‏@CecilLammey Kubiak says "I'm gonna make a decision next week." on #Broncos starting QB for regular season
  12. Cecil Lammey‏@CecilLammey #Broncos Gary Kubiak will not commit to which QB will be no2 - says that decision is later this week
  13. Nicki JhabvalaVerified account‏@NickiJhabvala #Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said Trevor Siemian will start Saturday vs. Rams.
  14. the suck is temporary. Kids are only in diapers for 2 years or so, and after 6 or 7 years they can mostly entertain themselves. At some point, they start wanting to watch better movies (i.e Star Wars vs My Little Pony) and they want to do things that are more fun (i.e kayaking vs bounce house). They are always (and will always be) a pain in the ###, but so are most people anyways. you are probably a year and a half away from being done with diapers. I'm not saying it's all downhill from there, but it gets a lot better pretty quickly. Right now, I'm in the happy place with my kids where they can entertain themselves, fix simple meals, and are generally pretty good to have around, but not yet teenageers. Not looking forward to that, but again, that phase is only a few years also.
  15. Points. I think the defense was handicapped last year by a really poor offense - an offense which led the league in interceptions. Those interceptions led to some short fields, and points. As great as that defense was, they only held one team to < 10 points all season. They can do better.