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Todem

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Todem last won the day on March 31

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About Todem

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  • Birthday 02/03/1970

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  1. I have zero complaints on the amount of discretionary (my word for my mad money portion of my portfolio) money I was able to make on BLMN, MGM and CCL. I was buying nice sized blocks for myself in my personal account. Again zero complaints. Returns like we just made typically take years not weeks. The easy money was made. How about BA?????? Oh yeah baby. Stay long on the master list everyone. Stay long.
  2. Absolutely. I still know we are going to have some bumps in the road. No doubt. But this rally is awesome. I am thrilled for all of us who stayed the course.
  3. Unemployment now 13.3% and dropping. If we do not have a true second wave......we are going to recover faster than we all think. Which would be fantastic.
  4. I am blown away at this. It’s great. I am not complaining at all. We are invested and loving this.....but man. Why does this feel........off. It is bizarre. Anyway....this is a perfect example of why you can’t time the market. It really is. It is one thing to have some fun and trade (BLMN, MGM, CCL) and make big chunks in weeks....days. And we have had fun with that. But the massive majority of money is long for this exact reason. I still feel no question.....this is not a straight line. We have a ways to go in this recovery. Stick with quality has always been my mantra. STONKS GO UP.
  5. In another 2 years or so.....people will look back at when they could have bought BA at 100 at one point as they see $325 price per share go by on the ticker on CNBC. Yeah we are long on BA. In 5 plus years this stock can absolutely reach over $400 a share. They have a lot of mud to wade through. But once they re-instate the dividend it will not be as painful a slog back to those levels. We are aggressive BA buyers 3/16 - 3/23 and then again 5/14 I believe at $115 and change. Stay long.
  6. Drop it in ADX Top 10 holdings are as follows in order of weighting: MSFT AAPL AMZN GOOGL UNITED HEALTH GROUP Visa JPM HON Thermo Fisher KO It is currently trading at a 14% discount from it’s NAV (Net Asset Value) I gave this pick a while ago (20 plus percent ago). This is a high octane Large cap portfolio for those with limited funds, that want a good actively managed large cap growth portfolio. I have this in my sons UTMA for 15 years now and it has averaged north of 15% per year avg annal return during that time. It also pays an average of 1.34% distribution a year. So this is a growth play.
  7. If an aggressive infrastructure bill can pass it can happen. Also fortunately and as predicted the residential real estate market is not only holding up....but values are rising as I type this. Inflation is real. And it will happen over the next couple of years.....big time.
  8. I do believe 2/3 will return to work over the next 6-8 months on the bull case. Base case for me is 50% Bear case is 35% I really believe most of the jobs will come back......but it will take a lot longer than 6 months.....try 12-18 months.
  9. About as bad as the one we had in May. 6-7% But it could be little more juice on the next one since we have climbed higher from there. It is a buy on the dips market again. Which is fine.
  10. Not a freaking word about it on CNN or FOX or MSNBC anymore. Like......nothing.
  11. Fortunately I do working from home these days. My last trade of BLMN was buy in the morning sell into the close trade.....it is crazy how we can trade these right now. Soon it will be over....but while we can do this....we will.
  12. Take a breather. Wait for the bat signal.
  13. At this point I would actually wait for a pullback. Really ask yourself. Are we pre-Covid 19 in our economy? Are suddenly and magically 40MM jobs just going to reappear on a snap of a finger while we sort all this out? Common sense......which right now now looks like we are all wrong.....but just be patient here. If you have cash there is no reason to rush into the market right here at this level knowing all the headwinds we have. The tailwind is the reopening. The tailwind is the zero level interest rates. But again there are headwinds and they are very strong too. That makes for a sideways market in the near term. And while we have not gone so sideways.....remember the 7% pull back we had in May? That was the last time I bought my master list (May 14th or 15th) Ithas been a straight shot up again from there. We will get another breather.....no doubt in my mind. It is par for the course. I know I said this before......but in 2017 we had three 10% corrections and had a great year in the market. Same for 2016. Most of the time on the way up you will have pullbacks and this will be no different. It just can’t keep going up based on......hope. Earnings and true fundamentals and balance sheets will come back into play when all the noise around us simmers down. This has been the most unusual year both economically, politically and socially I can ever remember in my entire life on this planet. I just want 2021 to be here already with a vaccine and we can all get back to watching our kids continue to grow up, watch baseball, and football again in filled stadiums.....this is for the freaking birds. There is a lot of mental fatigue and pent up emotions that are simply blowing over now. And we still have this election coming up.....ugh!!!
  14. The market is brushing off the bad unemployment numbers and will brush off non farm payroll numbers.....it is disconnected from that. When will it connect? When Covid is presumptively behind us but earnings stay depressed. That is when the rubber will meet the road and fundamentals will again rule the day. While I expect an eventual full recovery.....it is not happening in 2021 IMO. It will take some time to undo the massive economic damage that was done. This is not a fundamental based rally what so ever. So be patient if you have some cash. The easy money has been made. I have said that several times. But don’t think for a second we won’t get 6-10% pullbacks when 3rd and 4th quarter earnings come out, election coming, no forward guidance still. At some point the fundamentals will matter as they always do. I am long in my portfolio and keeping between 10-30% cash (all depends when I am getting in and out of the mad money BLMN, MGM, CCL type stocks which have greatly enhanced my returns this year) and will pounce on weakness. For those in mutual funds and and 401K’s....keep plugging away......the worst is behind us in terms of the plunge we saw in March. Unless another black swan comes. We will be fine long term as always.