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Dinsy Ejotuz

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Everything posted by Dinsy Ejotuz

  1. Just went through 500 for the day in the US. Sick feeling seeing these doubling rates hold.
  2. Way too late. And should be everyone. The reckoning when this is over will be something to behold.
  3. Curious how many deaths in a day it will take for the "wait and see before we overreact" people to get fully on board? The US was at 268 deaths Thursday and 400 yesterday. Total deaths are doubling every three days. So what's your number? At what point do you abandon the idea that this is anything other than a full blown crisis that should be/should have been met by the strongest reaction the US can/could have mustered? 5,000 in a day? 20,000? Is there *any* point where you change your thinking?
  4. Once someone makes it clear to you that they're more comfortable with many thousands of people dying unnecessarily than they are with holding the President accountable for his dangerous inaction and messaging what exactly is the point in continuing to engage them on politics?
  5. Go ahead. Tell me you hate Klopp. (Hope you're staying safe everyone.)
  6. As far as I can tell, the average incubation period seems like it's 5.1 days with a stdev of 2.5. So 7.6, 10.1, 13.6 days for 68%, 97% and 99% of cases. Give or take -- with a skew.
  7. Some evidence for Trump's improved polling being a muted "rally around the flag" reaction.
  8. It seems likely we're going to go through multiple waves of social distancing, interspersed with more normal periods of activity. Asked someone who knows things about this the other day and they suggested that the on-off period might stretch as long as next summer. But if herd immunity is a thing with this we might be able to get back to normal after 3 on-off cycles, or roughly next February/March. The latter assumes that ~50% of us have been infected at that point.
  9. Since everyone lies sometimes doesn't it make sense to judge people on the frequency, intent and level of deceit of those lies?
  10. Probably some seasonality mixed in here as well, but the decline starts in mid February -- which is still part of peak flu season, so this probably gives you some idea of how social distancing is helping with CV as well. Flu infections fell off a cliff starting the 7th week of the year.
  11. +45/-50 in the averages (-5). Even in the middle of this he has to cherry-pick polls to be +0 or better net approval/disapproval. It's unusual to say the least.
  12. That in times of national emergencies (Pearl Harbor, FDR dying, Kennedy's assassination, Nixon resigning, Reagan being shot, 9/11) the President typically sees a massive boost to his approval ratings. I doubt you'd find anyone in that list above below like +75% approval rating at a similar point in a crisis. Trump's at -5% overall.
  13. Probably best to think of this in localities rather than the US. NYC and Seattle are further along. Some places haven't really even started yet and might not this wave.
  14. Graham literally has no idea how much normal people make. 3x minimum wage? Sounds outrageous -- we better put a stop to that!
  15. He's actually ahead of Bernie in the prediction market I saw yesterday.
  16. Give it another couple weeks and he's going to be Lt. Dike hiding behind the shed, praying to be relieved by Lt. Speirs. He wants nothing to do with what's about to happen.
  17. I haven't added it up yet, but I think we're over to 200k this week. Obviously on a much bigger population base, but we're finally making some headway.