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Catbird

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About Catbird

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  • Birthday 12/14/1950

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  1. I completely agree with gabes1919. With the two studs on one team you balance out their highs and lows, and you have the unique benefit that if one is hurt, you own the guy who will get the spillover.
  2. I'm keeping him where I don't get a first or similar back. Showed starter talent early as a rookie. Late 1st seems about right in a good draft class. Maybe better when you consider the number of early WRs that never deliver.
  3. A lot of smart people get degrees to make money. I get that people with a college degree, on average, make what now will be something like a million dollars more during their careers than non-degree earners. ETN's is in a different situation. He will likely be a 2nd day choice - about as good as it gets for a top but not generational RB talent - this year or next. By waiting, however, he loses this year of salary (around $500,000) and then (assuming he has a very good pro career under either path), in 2024 he will get, by staying in school for 2020, this $500,000 as th last year of his initial contract instead of the maybe $4 million or whatever he gets per year for his second (and more important) contract. He is also a year older when signing his second contract, which for a typically shorter career RB, will likely decrease the annual value of that most significant career contract over its term. That's the likely earnings loss during his career if he remains a top talent (roughly $4-5 million at current salaries). His post-football career is going to be determined largely by his pro career and isn't likely to be changed much by a college degree (which he can pursue while playing football if he really wants it). If he now has a terrible senior year or gets badly hurt, the amount of his initial contract will drop dramatically, which has been shown conclusively to drop (on average) his career earnings in the years beyond his first contract. That would be a huge loss compared to earning $500,000 in each of his first 4 years under an initial contract. If get gets so badly hurt that his career is over, he will be that same $500,000 ahead if he'd signed in 2020 and it happens during his first 4 years, and the same $500,000 in 2020 and same $3.5 million or so ahead if it happens during the second contract. There is virtually no scenario where he isn't hugely ahead financially by foregoing his senior season to sign now, while on top of the world. He could, of course, become an even better RB than top 2 or 3 in the whole country over the next year. If you follow this stuff, that doesn't happen very often. If he is not a projected as a generational talent at 20, he is not at all likely to become one at 21. The odds of decreasing his draft status by waiting, for someone who is already at the peak of national talent, is far more likely than the odds of increasing his draft status. Most likely, however, is that he is as good as he has appeared to be, and will have a similar projected talent going forward - his projected career value just being dramatically less, for having started earning a year later and having a year fewer of top earning years. And he can, of course, make he decision to go back for his senior year at the anticipated cost. I'm sure he loves his team and that the desire to win a championship calls to any player who falls short on a top quality team. The odds of any one team winning it all next year, however, are long and the cost of that commitment (in his case) huge. I think most of us just fear that everyone around a kid in this situation wants him back because that increases the schools's situation and coaches careers, and we wonder if the kid is getting the kind of neutral guidance he should on the effect staying is likely to have on his career earnings. We also think he is good enough to play at the next level and would like to see him take that challenge - but that's out issue, not his. Its completely his choice, of course, we just hope he is getting good advice about the consequences.
  4. Jackson and the Ravens are young and hadn't faced playoff intensity in the new system. They may have looked past the Titans a bit and then got stressed and anxious to do everything at once to come back. And huge credit to Tenn for the intensity, single-mindedness and sheer force they brought to the game. I think Lamar had a game like much of the team - slightly off target and played from stress. I don't think that means he is anything less than the league MVP. He has a great future. He had a lackluster game against a fierce defense and didn't rise up to lead his team to victory, despite good stats. I don't think it means any more or less than that. Everyone falls short somewhere except the team that wins it all.
  5. I own and have loved Ertz, but with Goedert going nowhere and cracks beginning to show in Ertz' performance (whether from shared opportunities or the beginning of the end facing 30 at a position where the beating taken often leads to early career decline) I am looking for trade opportunities. I am not a huge Kirk fan, but I think its time to get the best value you can for Zach, before a sense of production erosion becomes general.
  6. 1.12 easily. Johnson just looked finished even when at full strength down the stretch. There is some chance he returns to a significant role if he weren't as healthy as advertised, but I think almost none that he supplants both Drake and Edmonds into a bell cow role. And age. I'll take the first rounder in a strong RB/WR class who has a good chance of being a long term value. Thanks Doc, for the opinion in line with my (uneducated but enthusiastic) feeling about the future. It wasn't long ago that people were throwing Dalvin to the dogs as 'made of glass.' Guice could still go the Kevin White route, but I think even that was ultimately a confidence and lack of talent issue more than 'injury proneness' as a career killer. I don't think Guise suffers from any lack of confidence or talent. He has already shown clear stretches of elite skills on a team with, at least yet, little competition and great other needs for their draft picks. I think Guice is far more likely to be a stud player than a 1.7, even in this strong class. I'm pretty confidently holding him everywhere.
  7. Close for me, but the 1.02 is as high potential as Godwin and I'd gladly take Gallup over the 2.02 and 3.02. I can sure see the risk averse grabbing Godwin and being completely satisfied. A lot may come down to whether you are a strong team in your league and can coast with Godwin as a foundation piece or are in a rebuild and need the chance at a stud plus Gallup to compete.
  8. No one knows your rules, Boot (nor do we have near enough info to guess whether you are mentally ill). If you have to give up your next two first round picks to protect a guy, I probably wouldn't protect anyone - maybe CMC. If your league requires that you give up your upcoming first to keep a top player (which I think we assume is close to what happens in you league because that's the general rule in keeper leagues we've been in or seen) who you should keep is further colored by whether your first pick is early or late and what you think will be available when you pick. What I hear others saying, and I agree, is that Hopkins is a top WR. He is probably as likely to finish top 10 next year as all but maybe 2 or 3 WRs (or more, depending on your evaluation). That said, he is probably about an even bet to finish top 10 (with injuries - particularly if his, DeShauns' and/or Fuller's), how intensely defenses focus on him, whether his OL improves and all the other factors). As you note, there will probably be 4 or 5 guys we never considered seriously to be top 10 finishing there next year, as every year. Some will never be top 10 again. Your certainty of top 10 results in picking one of those is commensurate with their cheaper cost. I appreciate your points about DeAndre's years of use and how the offense used him less at year's end. I think this is primarily the Fuller situation and how much defense capital this let opponents spend on stopping Hopkins with Hyde and Duke being lesser threats. Virtually anyone can be stopped. Lamar is hard to stop, for example, because you still have to stop the running game, the passing game and then also Lamar's running. More things to cover mean thinning out the defense capital you have to stop any particular threat. When the Texans can produce next to nothing from non-Nuk WRs and less than average from their running game, he can be blanketed. We know he can still produce at a high level with those forces. It would be quite a stretch to assume any of the unexpected and first time top 10 finishers could still put up those kind of numbers if the opposing defenses focused first on stopping them. Those high finishes make those guys likely to get more coverage and produce less as a result,. We already know teams are doing everything they can to stop Nuk first, and he is still producing top 10 numbers. No clear reason he shouldn't again. Maybe more if either the run game or cast of WRs (or even just Fuller) force the defense to cover more ground). You know best for you and your league. I think most of us just see Hopkins as a stellar talent and know that studs are hard to find and shouldn't be given up lightly.
  9. We all think we could do it with a little help, but I think it is extremely difficult to run an NFL team. The salary cap keeps cash from deciding much. Ask the Redskins fans how much money helps. Ask the Cowboy fans how much having a knowledgeable, free spending and passionate owner helps. Ask the Jaguars how much having a multi-Superbowl winning staff leader and consultant helps. Ask the Raiders how much having a Superbowl winning head coach helps. Ask the Cardinals how much having the most innovative coach from the college ranks helps (although the jury is still out here). Ask the Bears how much an innovative coach from the Chief's tree with a more than solid defense helps. Ask Miami or the Jets or the Bengals or the Browns what kind of ownership helps. Its a tough gig. If you think a broken back crushed your expectation, look at what happened to Cleveland's light parade. They'd already been awarded a Superbowl slot by the media and fans. 18 teams have gone to the Superbowl in the last 20 years. That means 14 haven't. Your in the same boat, but no worse than they are. At least you are competitive. I encourage you to quit bemoaning ancient history, recognize that you are a .500 team with Stafford healthy, be glad the Fords aren't someone who wants to buy and move the team in Toronto or Mexico City or London and support them in the long climb to being a winner. It often takes upgrading 15 or 18 players from a losing roster, and its rare to do that in 2 or even 3 years. If you don't want to take the team as they are and support them getting better - don't.They'll be find without you. If you're a fan, be one. Complain, of course, but within the range of support, not constant whining and bemoaning all you've had to live through.
  10. I fear how cocky some of you are. He has been at or below 25 points 5 times this year and in 2 of the last 4. I get hoping for 30, but not expecting it.
  11. If you aren't sticking to the coin and toss being fair, there are an infinite number of reasons the 10th flip might not be tails, including the weighted coin option, that the flipper is talented enough to influence the outcome by how he or she flips it, the coin landing with almost exact balance and coming to rest on in its edge, coin wedging into a crack, the flipper being accosted and robbed of the coin before flipping and nuclear holocaust obliterating the coin and participants. If the flipping isn't assumed as fair from the outset, the odds thereafter are incalculable. The fundamental assumption of the example is an assumption that the coin and toss are fair. Notwithstanding, the odds slightly favored going for it and the coach's decision should have been (and probably was) based on whether he thought it more likely or less likely that they would get the 2 yards.
  12. I don't think this is at all where AZ is. I think DJ is likely done as anything but a 3rd down back, certainly for this year. There has not been a game with a healthy Drake and Edwards available, but I think they will share the load until it become clear one is superior. I think that's up in the air, but more likely to be Edwards.
  13. Whose job was it to build a 'good offensive line and capable QB'? Will those maybe just show up by chance one day?