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Catbird

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Everything posted by Catbird

  1. Thanks DD, for the reference and the list - which I'd already copied.
  2. Great tool to have in the box. I'm in agreement with those that think you need to weight dominator against the team's talent, at least in extreme cases, but breakout and dominator (both at breakout and last college year) seem useful as warnings about someone who is not productive at an young age. With the clear correlation though, and if I can integrate that as a piece together with athleticism, what I can see from film and what others better trained to look for it can see from film (and what ZWK's formula says) at least I'll feel like I touched all the bases. Sorry if I missed it. I tried to read back through but didn't find a link. Can one get breakout age and dominator percentages already quantified for the 2019s?
  3. Coming in at 20 with the world by the tail, Matthews has managed to established himself as an oft-injured journeyman. I don't see him both staying healthy and winning a competition with Pettis, Goodwin, Bourne or even Taylor, let alone a high draft pick - should they spend one. I'll guess camp body.
  4. Unless teams don't think Rosen has the talent, I don't know why AZ would NOT wait until at least very close to the draft to accept an offer. With AZ taking Murray, and NYG likely to take Haskins, WAS is wandering around without a starting QB and there are at least 6 or 8 other teams (MIA, CIN, NE, OAK, LAC, DEN, PIT?, NO?) in serious need of a QB to groom as a their future starter. Each of these to-be-groomed kids needs to have at least the high upside of being a, NFL franchise QB. As it becomes clear that Murray and Haskins are gone, the other several teams are going to more clearly and see that Lock and Jones are going to cost them their 1st this year, and likely a good bit more to trade up. Rosen at a cheaper price? If two take Lock and Jones, that leaves at least 7 teams looking to next year in a class that may have 2 great QBs, maybe even 3 or 4, but those will all cost 1st rounders plus probably another chunk to move up into the 2020 star QB derby. It gets very speculative and will get very expensive very quickly. In that climate and with that need, I would be glad to give up my later 1st this year for Rosen instead of waiting for next year to compete with 6 or 7 or more teams for whatever that class brings to the table - particularly if I am the Pats or Chargers or Steelers and know my next year's first won't bring me squat without trading a fortune to move way up. Looking at that future, Rosen begins to look extremely cheap as a 1st rounder, even with the uncertainty in his first year. Discount QBs rookie years in bad offenses! If I were AZ, I'd be watching what develops (and thinking that an early 1st or late first plus may show up) at least until the draft begins.
  5. I agree with this. It's make or break it. If he doesnt take a step I honestly think they are in the market for a qb in 2020, which isn't a terrible draft to be QB shopping As an unprepared rookie forced to step up early by injury, he took a team with a losing record under Flacco and went 6-1 with the only loss in overtime to playoff bound KC. They were hardly the worst team on the planet. We assume that Darnold and Allen will get much better, but not Jackson. I agree that he will need to pass a lot better to be a competitive QB as defenses get better at stopping his strengths, but it isn't like the teams he played against didn't know who he was and what he could and couldn't do after a game or two with him starting. I just think your absolute certainty of his demise is way over-stated
  6. While Mostert, at 26, is largely an unknown, along with dismissing him as a special teams player, we should at least note that his 7.7 ypc last year (admittedly on a small sample before he got hurt) was the absolute best ypc in football among all rushers with over 20 carries.
  7. If you were the 40th or so best guy in the world at any job that pays millions, you could probably count on a decent job and paycheck even if you weren't in the top 30. Sucking is kind of relative.
  8. Rice's career was on the steep downslope and Hunt's on the rise. There was never much remaining career comparison.
  9. Its a salary cap. It keeps teams equal. If your team pays players more than they minimum you can, you will have fewer good players than teams that stick to that guideline. Quality teams that stay good over time (Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Seahawks ...) pay attention to this. Being 'for the players' in these things means having less money to spend on the rest of the team. People here act like the teams are being stingy and pocketing what they don't spend. They all pretty much spend the cap. The struggle is how much can they get for your team by spending as little on each player as they can while keeping everyone as happy as they can be within the limits. Paying Bell or whoever what they want won't deplete the owner's pocket, but it would keep the team from being more competitive. I want my teams to pay their better players the absolute minimum they can while keeping the player mostly satisfied.
  10. Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 RBs gets injured in a particular season so severely that it impacts their next contract? I haven't counted, but out of the 90 or so active RBs, its not very common. Add in that Bell is exceptionally good at adjusting to avoid solid hits by defenders in injury creating situations and that one in 20 or so chance should figure into your calculation. If you are opening a restaurant you certainly need to consider that it might be burned down by lightening or a telephone pole might fall on it in a high wind, but you take that into account as a possibility and insure against it as you decide you should. If its an otherwise good decision, though, you still go forward with the business.That's what ballplayers do every time they sign a contract - and they cover themselves in the contract or outside it as they choose for what that costs. Not opening the restaurant because something like that might happen however, is not a very good way to run your life of business. You have to compare the value of opening (or playing) to the likelihood of a disaster happening. Career ending injury for Bell at his age? Maybe 1 in 50 (I'm guessing)? Much cheaper to insure against the potential losses than to take the $14.5 hit in not playing last year. (Again guessing, maybe it costs $2 Mil for $50 Mil in one year of coverage? If you worry so much about what could happen that you give up huge extra value to avoid that risk, pretty soon your not leaving the house because what if you get mugged or hit by a passing car or slip and fall. You can't just say something bad might happen so you are smart to do nothing.
  11. Picking 16 in a 16 team dynasty. I'm the only one that really needs a QB. Potential height questions will keep me from moving up (as I do think trying to throw over huge, lightening fast guys is harder for shorter guys. I remember a video showing what it looked like from Flutie's height over or between a wall of rushers and can't imagine playing effectively from there all the time - although some can clearly do it). But, if he lasts (and isn't backing up Luck or something awful) its a rare time for me to spend a first on a QB.
  12. If he played last year, he would have that 15 last year and 15 this year. Now he will only have it this year. Those are not the same thing. He now has to make 20 per year for 3 years just `to catch up.
  13. I think Bell as a Jet star is a mirage. He was behind a top 2 or 3 OL in PIT and won't be by a long shot in NY. His per carry numbers were already trending down last year from 4.7, 4.9, 4.9 in 2014-2016 to 4.0 in 2017 when he last played (which itself is pretty awful behind that line). He isn't going to have Ben throwing to him or defenses fearing AB and Ju Ju so they can't focus on stopping Bell. He's going to demand 5 or 6 years, so you'll still owe him for 2 or 3 after he's a 30+ year old RB likely making something over 10 Mil+ per guaranteed. Add in that his teammates in PIT have pretty much said good riddance to a player with that kind of talent (reflecting that he was a negative presence in the locker room) and I think there are a lot better things one can do with $100,000,000. Being unable to sign quality players in 2022 and 2023 because of guarantees owed an over-age, under-committed, self-absorbed waste of space would be SO like the Jets.
  14. It doesn't matter a whole lot what the Steelers think of his value. That will be in the eye of the beholder. I think they have decided to take the best they can get (probably not including in division or Pats offers) and are saying the right things to keep the bidding as high as possible. So, you hope the buyers will look more at production and getting one of the best WRs in the world for the next 2-3 years than a guy throwing furniture off the upstairs balcony and quitting on his team because he didn't feel properly respected by his teammates. I think it will help the Steelers to allow potential trade partners to talk with AB about contract terms, which I think may take as little as guaranteeing a bigger slice of the contract already in place. If there is a big sticking point, it may be guaranteeing the contract of a loose cannon who may find it easier to quit on teammates he doesn't know than those he had grown up amongst. A well written guarantee could fairly accommodate both concerns. Ultimately, I think he is traded for a 2nd or early 3rd with his contract guaranteed against injury, but not against his behavior.
  15. I drafted him in a couple of deep leagues and will wait to see how he is looking in camp, since he was small school and for those guys 3rd year is often the charm … but he's on a very short leash and reports better be awfully good about both production and lineup spot.
  16. Sorry Cobalt, but that sounds strikingly like the decades old statements from the tobacco companies. Playing football at the NFL level causes brain injury and permanent damage to at least some players. I agree that the dynamics of causation are not completely understood as yet, but I don't think there's a marginally educated, sane and honest person out there that doesn't know and accept that causal link.
  17. Instead, its about your paranoid belief that instead of the ref blowing a call, this was a purposeful attack on the poor Saints that you imagine everyone hates (apparently including the ref who didn't bother to even shade a call against them through the rest of the game - maybe because he knew this opportunity to get them was coming)?. It was just a blown call. Unfortunate, but they happen all the time. I completely agree that this was a most unfortunate time and blatant miss, but there is no evidence to support your assault on the integrity of the league. And I really like the Saints
  18. And he finished the regular season #1 in receptions, #6 in receiving yards and #9 in TDs and with the highest catch rate among receivers. Yes the Saints share the scoring more than some, but at least in ppr, there aren't many better.
  19. If you are reading the AB thread, and if it's accurate, I think there is some real worry about whether he is going to mesh with a bunch of strangers who don't immediately think he walks on water and whether his psyche can handle all the slights and confrontations and negativity a new QB, team and city will mean. This could be the worst trade or best trade we see in a while.
  20. No one has said that you don't take the risk at a discount. Only that you need to consider the additional risk and value him accordingly. I agree that if you get a large discount, take the risk for the potentially high reward. On the other hand, if you grade out everything out as equal on two guys except that, I'll take the one with no injury history. How it applies to a particular circumstance falls somewhere in between those two extremes based on what you know.
  21. I tend to agree with Bronco here. People do have different bone brittleness and muscle density/tinsel strength/flexibility which can also effect their body's ability to absorb horribly violent collisions from a thousand different angles. I also agree with SayWhat that different guys have greater or lesser abilities to avoid full force hits, which reduces their chance of injury. No one is saying (that I have read) that Anderson has any particular condition or lack of instinct that will make him more susceptible to injury going forward, just that not acknowledging that his injury past raises the question of his durability is choosing not to not to look at the full picture. For every Frank Gore there is a Marcus Lattimore.
  22. Sorry tjnc09 You're the first person I've ever had to formally ignore. You make no effort at discussion but just want to stick to your shtick, abuse anyone who responds and basically just aggrandize yourself with claims you have no idea as to their truthfulness. If you would make some effort, others might take you seriously. I'll never know.