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Everything posted by Catbird

  1. Go to Assistant Coach forum. Its all about who to pick.
  2. I think Cook was nearly universally preferred on what he would produce per game, but he dropped substantially in drafts because of injury fears. I don't think many people thought Mixon behind his OL would produce what Cook would behind his. That injury risk is still a concern. While Dalvin is probably outperforming what people expected and Mixon underperforming so far, if Cook gets hurt again and Mixon continues to stay healthy, the CIN OL would only have to get back to basic health to make Mixon the better pick. If you don't believe in some players being more likely than others to get hurt, of course, injury history doesn't matter (and you probably picked Cook way before you got to Mixon on your draft list).
  3. You get paid for what you bring to the team (not so much what effort you put in). They have a salary cap and so teams pay more for the positions where the difference in players makes a difference in results. That is, above all, QBs. On that scale, teams evidently believe the studies that say RBs matter less to results and see that born out on the field. If teams thought that the difference in RB talent made as much difference in game results as the difference in QBs, they would pay RBs as much as QBs - because they would need to have the top ones to win. That just isn't the case. A team that chooses to spend their salary cap paying everyone equally is not going to compete because they will have great people at less important positions and worse people at the more critical positions. Its just like real life, except that even the worst NFL players are making ten times (or a hundred times) what the average hard worker does. The CEOs who make the decisions that guide corporations make a lot more than their hard working mail clerks. Paying Gordon ten million per year was in keeping with the RB salary patterns and his talent. He chooses not to accept that (perhaps wisely, depending on what this course will bring him). No bad guy. The owners are just allocating their cap as effectively to win (admitting there is also some marketing concern mixed in) as they can. Each just trying to make their best choice for their goal. The fact that Ekeler has so effectively replaced Gordon with little apparent difference in result demonstrates exactly why they shouldn't be paying Gordon more.
  4. Sometimes I don't know what you are thinking or seeing, Zyphros, but your dogged faith and belief in PWilliams made me look again and start to maybe see some of what you did. I picked him up with 4ths in both my dynasty drafts and happily jumped on the bus. He hasn't done anything yet but have a good early pre-season game, but he's going to. Thanks!
  5. Pre-camp coachspeak building a guy up so as to trade him?
  6. I guess so ... if there were no other factors whatsoever contributing to RB performance.
  7. Since we are purely guessing, I will cast my hunch with Skeletore. Gordon has never shown a huge prima donna or 'me first' attitude - admitting there hasn't been much reason to before now. I think the Chargers will give Melvin some assurance that he is their guy and they will pay him and it blows over within the first week of camp, if not sooner. Owner though, so this may be more wishful than insightful.
  8. Why are the RBs with more forced missed tackles listed after the RBs with fewer? Who are RBs 6, 7 and 8?
  9. Its like people are speaking different languages here. Several think the clear consistency of the data makes consideration of the cutoffs valuable and the other half is saying either that draft order has been shown to be the most consistent predictor of WR success and so there is no need to look at other factors, or that the sample size of the last 8 years is insufficient to rely on. It seems pretty simple from there. People should use what they are comfortable with. Like everything, people are very unlikely to convince anyone with a strong opinion of anything that isn't consistent with it. People who are open to the predicability of the data, knowing the sample size and lack of absolute certainty, should be discussing whether that can be improved upon. People who aren't open to seeing the data as predictive or useful should go somewhere else and look at things they think are more useful to them. Using this thread to bicker between the two basic views just takes time away from both useful endeavors. Since no one is going to prove the data non-predictive, and with it clear that many people think it non-predictive or that this can't be shown clearly enough to be useful, can we keep this thread to talking about how best to use this data and how to improve its usefulness, rather than yelling back and forth whether or not people should use it at all?
  10. Posted 10 hours ago 11 hours ago, Blue Thunder said: A 16-game, 19-week season with three evenly spaced bye weeks solves all of these problems. More TV money from the longer season, players play the same number of games and get more rest throughout the season, and you aren't forced to sit any players if you don't want to. ETA: And you get the added benefit of cutting the preseason to two weeks to make it fit in the same time frame, so you'd have less opportunities for injuries in meaningless preseason games. I like this idea if the league wants more that 17 weeks of regular season TV games. For FF, would still need to expand rosters a wee bit to handle more bye weeks, but at least there would be no "mandatory" rest weeks. I don't have much new to add. This solves all problems. Players play 16 games and all of their players play every game they are healthy for. League gets 2 extra weeks of games for TV revenue - more for players and owners to split up. It adds a little bit more time for players to recoup and play healthy with 2 extra bye weeks. No impact on whether to expand rosters. It would even be easier to have teams only play Thursday nights after a bye - since there would be far more of them. Far, far better than 18 games with players forced to sit twice.
  11. If your starting RB is a punishing pounder that weakens a defense through the game, making hay when they are finally worn down, You might keep him in on all first and second downs to have that effect (which could be lost if a lighter, quicker RB came in to take lots of carries). It could, of course, be the opposite breakdown and the good backup might tend to beat down D's better than the starter - so they might use the backup more than if he relied primarily on finesse. One or the other running style might be better suited against a particular defense, so you would likely use more of the player whose style you found more effective in that game. Lots of variables. One approach doesn't fit all. But not considering anything else, I think a coach would probably be more likely to use a backup more if he is better and less if he is worse.
  12. Tanner and Winz - I'm glad that you two feel this way. I would take Gurley mid-second in a dynasty, but if so, I'll reach a little bit to have Henderson cooling his wheels and taking over some day, sooner or later.
  13. I think you are way off on this one, DR. Dan. Moncrief and Funchess are WRs who fail to stand out in any way. Pettis is one of the most unique receivers out there. If you just want to say he looks like low production to you, say that. Comparing him to low production guys who play a completely different game is confusing. From coachspeak, the goal is to have Pettis, Deebo and Kittle virtually interchangeable so the defense never knows what's coming or who will line up where. They are all 3 learning every route at all three positions (the receivers, of course, learning routes instead of blocking from many TE positions) although all Shanahan receivers can block. This flexibility has been a Shanahan trait and they are pushing it even further. Drafting Hurd was confirmation, as his primary trait is that he has played and can play every skill position except QB, and all well. I get the hope for this year to be Kittle and Pettis to start with Deebo as a rook and Goodwin (and even Hurd) rotating in the third spot. I think we see any 2 of Kittle, Deebo and Goodwin with Pettis in "11" sets. A major goal is to be the least predictable team in football coming to the line. Long term, I think they see Pettis, Deebo and Kittle as their lineup, with Goodwin and Hurd as plus backups with very different skills. Not recognizing the unique ability Pettis has to change direction and get wide open, despite his average speed, is missing the boat. I think he's a major bargain now, as people like Dan who are seeking speed and power look elsewhere.
  14. The whole idea of Goodell sitting at his desk by himself, thinking about what he wants to do and just doing it is ludicrous. He speaks for the billon dollar league and I think there are many investigators who talk with law enforcement and who talk with the social services people, investigators who talk with any of the family that will participate, researchers, analysts, attorneys who look at the specific language of the league rules and their intent, people who look at the implications for the future of various possible decisions, people who test how different resolutions will be received by the teams and by the public… all of whom participate in gathering the information the league relies on and many of whom participate with Goddell in shaping and finalizing the decision that gets presented. Without going into the Brady case, I think there was enough public perception of wrongdoing and enough evidence of improper motive that they felt some penalty was needed, but I don't want to get into that all over again. I think the league has many people involved in a complicated and carefully thought out resolution in each of these cases. I think even the timing or releasing decisions is carefully planned to fall when nothing else is going on, or when it might best be smothered by other happening events. I think these decisions and penalties imposed depend as much or more on the public perception of the player and situation as on the proven facts. I'll offer as exhibit 1 the difference in punishment for people who committed similar acts, but either were or weren't captured at their worst on video.
  15. Brown had a clavicle injury with 3-4 weeks to go and went on IR. They then signed Anderson who played in the last 2 regular season games. Brown was running at 4.9 yards per carry and is a great blocker. They re-signed him at more than CJ would have cost them when they had the choice. I don't see any reason to think they preferred CJ to Malcolm. Just the opposite. I think Brown will have a very significant role in a post-Gurley Rams backfield - should there be one.
  16. People seem unclear. IMO this thread is to list trades, not team histories, draft selections and how people's teams have progressed. We all benefit from seeing the value actually given for players and then how other owners think someone else's valuation was too strong or too weak on one player or another. As important as they are to you, none of us gain from learning who you drafted or what your roster looks like.
  17. The lateral cuts of players like Sanders (and Singletary and Montgomery) seem to me far sharper and more violent than Henderson's. Its Henderson's similar style to Dalvin Cook that explains the great college success they both enjoyed. Both kind of veer and accelerate right by a guy where Sanders (or so many others) cut more laterally around the defender. The wide cutters create a wider gap between themselves and the defender, but have to regain their flow. Cook and Henderson veer just at the moment they approach a defender, pausing him and maintaining their power line while accelerating past before the defender can balance and grab them. Its a different skill and if you are looking for one and getting the other, I think you tend to underappreciate these guys' talent. 9 yards per carry, (almost 2 full yards every single carry more than any other college RB with 200 carries in 2018) doesn't happen by chance. Doing that 2 years in a row ... says its a real talent he possesses. If he is Dalvin2 (despite the other differences) with that almost unique style, I don't see why Cook numbers in a far better offense, and without the injuries, aren't well within Henderson's ceiling. Lots of reasons he might not get there, like Gurley staying fairly healthy, but I don't think not cutting as wide laterally as Sanders or Singletary is one of them.
  18. While we still have Moore on topic, I have to give up either Julio Jones or Moore from my roster (arcane rule, but 10 team standard scoring, start 3 WR league - I also own M.Thomas and D.Hopkins). Question is really who is more valuable going forward. I'll be glad, I think, for Julio this year and probably next, but may want Moore for the next 10. I think the question is broader, figuring out how to quantify the futures of young upstarts WRs with high-ceiling futures compared with 30 year old superstars.
  19. He did not improve noticeably from his sophomore to junior year. To me, his whole profile screams speed and not a lot of receiving skills. Great speed gives him a chance to be great and chance to be worthless. Assuming he falls somewhere between, I wish him the best and think Reid will maximize his chances. I am clear that the NFL teams have a lot more information on rookies and are a lot better at making use of it than I am.. I'll still take a player who has shown something more about playing the position and game with my first round pick.
  20. So he received for 550 yards in his 3rd full year at Georgia, fewer yards and TDs (5 to 7) than teammate Riley Ridley with both well under 20% of the team receiving total. And he was just as fast there as he will be here. No indication of dominance. Not a background that makes me expect him to quickly dominate in the NFL, great QB or no. I won't say he can't get there, but I'll sure bet against him doing it this year.
  21. I get frustrated with it too, waiting for slower owners, but there is really no hurry. You have months yet before anything else happens. Slow down and enjoy it. Life is better while in a draft than not.
  22. That was the 'what if' I was waiting for. Warren for sale very cheap over here.
  23. I Its about as hilarious as another Josh Gordon relapse. Where the heck are you coming from?
  24. I think the last few drafts have all had at least 2 RBs more outstanding than anyone in this draft. If 1 team or even 2 draft a 1st round RB (Montgomery/Henderson), I think they are reaching. - and more likely no one does. When you look a Jacobs, he had very mediocre production behind one of the best blocking OLs in college football and is barely average in speed. IMO, there are better talents well into the 2nd round.