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gheemony

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About gheemony

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  1. I agree that the stat gathering has to happen now before sites shut down their tools and stat pages. But I'm hoping that I have the will power to not analyze those stats until after I've done rankings without a heavy does of stats analysis.
  2. All of the factors are definitely going to be incorporated in some fashion that you mentioned above. I posted my initial rough draft of the percentages on the thread because I was really excited about the project and wanted to get it online to receive feedback as I was doing all the numbers/charts. I will continue to post the progress, or evolution of this project because it seems to have sparked some discussion about many offshoots of the subject as general as "2011 player rankings". In response to some of the "you are trying to make the statistical rankings support what your feeling rankings say" or something to that regard - the whole point of delving into the rankings to this level is to take some of the subjective nature out of the equation. When you do that, you may be surprised that some players that you support to no end may be a lot lower (and should be) on your cheatsheets - and some are constantly undervalued by yourself. There are already (regardless of my future tweaking) a few players at each position (have not started tight ends at all yet) that fit into each category.Also, this is the perfect time to do this because the season is just about over so you can have everything from this season fresh in your mind (also I like to use any stats from the 2010 season only through 15 games because there are so many variables in week 17 that can make stats more inaccurate than they already inherently are with some teams dialing in the final game, sitting starters, etc.). I feel if you make your first rankings for the following season in the summer, there are lots of factors that can have too big a change to your rationale for changing the rankings. Doing it now means you can change things based on FA signings, the draft, coaching moves, etc. but I believe those changes will be less than if you were doing them for the 1st time in July/August.We're not that far apart. I'm saying that after you do your subjective rankings, question the shifts to make sure that the objective criteria underlying the subjective rankings are being used consistently.For example, if you dock Torain X% for his injury history but don't dock a player with a similar injury history the same amount, you revisit and make the percentage consistent across the board. That may result in you having Torain higher than you would have expected or the other player lower. Similarly, if you give Torain extra points for playing in a ZBS, but dock Foster for being a "system RB", then you revisit and re-apply.I am trying really hard NOT to look at statistics right now. I want my subconscious thoughts put to paper because they are fresh. After the Super Bowl, those thoughts will be gone, but the stats will be there. I can compare and contrast my January 1, 2011 rankings against stats during the off-season. And I err on the side of not too much movement in the rankings (e.g., players can move within a tier, but it's hard to jump or drop a tier), I think I'll end up with rankings that are less skewed by off-season news.This is my first time putting this approach down in writing, so we'll see how it goes.
  3. @fdctrumpet - Thanks for sharing your thinking process. That's much more helpful than the end results. I'm probably doing my rankings today because I want to get my conscious and subconscious thoughts based on this season before it fades. My approach is to make a set of 2011 redraft rankings that I would use if I had a bet with the devil and my life depended on it. And then I'm going to tweak it for keeper/dynasty. I want to compare the two lists and use that to extrapolate rough estimates of % various factors caused me to change from redraft to dynasty. Was I more influenced by time horizon (I use 3 years), age, team situation, injury history, supporting cast, contract uncertainty, homerism, etc.? I mention this because you may want to give it a try. Come up with a list that passes your sniff test and then reverse engineer the factors that led to the ranking. It may help you divine the percentages for a more consistent formulaic approach in the future and will also help you evaluate blind spots and process flaws. In the end, you want to find out if this is a good process, even if the outcomes are good or bad. And of course, please share! Thanks for your contribution to the thread.
  4. Brandon Lloyd has put up nice numbers in two straight games with Tebow. I recall Greg Cosell saying that he was very impressed with his play this year. Are we underrating this guy because of his situation and he was slow to "get it"? I have hard-time not having him around 20 (though I haven't yet made my list and might be able to find 20 others that are better, but he'd still be in the same tier).
  5. I took a couple week hiatus from the thread because of the holidays and the bickering. I was extremely pleased with what I read today as I caught up. Advanced stats, contract leagues, ... Oh, joy! Thanks for all of your contributions. Great reading. Maybe we're back to some normalcy now that most of the non-regulars have gone home for the season.
  6. I have had this strange thought in my head recently and wanted to see how others reacted. I have not delved into statistics, physcial comparisons, etc. This really is a gut call based on years of playing fantasy football. I have been and remain a fan of Jahvid Best's prospects as a fantasy football asset. I have been and remain a skeptic of Felix Jones' prospects as a fantasy football asset. Yet, lately I've had this gnawing feeling that Best will be much like Felix (and I admit that the book on Felix is not fully written yet). And 2 and 3 years from now, we'll have threads debating Best much like we debate Felix now. Why? Although the coaching staff appears to have believed that Best wass suited to be lead, bell-cow back that gets 20+ carries, I have this feeling that they will finish the season thinking that Best is best suited for 10-15 touches. That he helps the Lions win more games if he is paired with the Lions' version of a healthy Marion Barber or Tashard Choice. I worry that Best's value will take a surprisingly large dip on draft day 2011 when the Lions take a bigger back in the 3rd/4th round. My head keeps telling me that, even if that happens, Best will prove it on the field and merit 20+ touches a game, but I need to listen to my gut, which is saying that there's a chance he's really "just" Felix Jones.
  7. That's my reason for having Vick high. Either SSOG or EBF likes to point out that the huge edge over the next player is like having an extra starter in your lineup. I believe Vick has the ability to carry teams to championships this year and next. That alone gets me to discount the risk of age, injury, sloth, etc. diminishing his value two or more years out.
  8. sighI hope we didn't drive off EBF, SSOG, and the other regular posters... where is the useful discussion?
  9. The thing about this format is that it is contract years with penalties - so there's a very real cost to adding/dropping players.In my contract league, I always do the same thing: Sign a kicker at the league min for a one year contract. The penalty to the cap then lasts only one year, and it's small. I can always drop or pickup a new guy if need be, and by the end of the year, it's like I had rostered an extra wideout all year, when you add up all the K salary penalties I have.In a contract league too, and I use the same strategy. Always shocked to see (1) kickers signed for more the minimum, (2) kickers signed for more than 1 year, and (3) both 1 and 2!
  10. Put zero meaningful value in kickers. They are inconsistent yeat-to-year, easily replaced from the waiver wire (in most leagues) with little or no drop in production, and can be swapped in and out based on weekly match ups. Last year, a buddy was sure that Robbie Gould was money and that I was foolish to have the worst kicker in the league. I told him I'd play the wire and out score Gould. He conceded the bet after week 7. My waiver wire kicker rotation had outscored all of the kickers in the league. You can play match ups with kickers. Second, how do owners feel if they invested anything of value in Hartley, Gostkowski, or Kaeding this year? Injuries and benchings hurt them all. You just don't know. Nevertheless, the smart owner maximizes points from all positions. So you absolutely have to put time and effort in to finding the best kicker (be it for the year or the week), but if someone offers you something of value for Dan Carpenter because of two straight 15 point weeks - take it and run. I use the same basic theory with defenses.
  11. I also ask myself this question. However, I sort of get the feeling most owners in my league seem to believe Marshall is no longer what "he used to be."How is he not what he used to be? He is still just as talented, and is performing after getting major bucks, which some worried about. You don't look to sell low on guys who are just as talented and getting just as many looks as they were when your drafted/traded for them. That negates all value, and ruins potential value moving forward too. This is a dynasty thread and it is WAY too early to start thinking that Marshall's value has taken a major hit in dynasty formats. Talent > situation, and it is not as though he is putting up "0"s. Brandon Marshall is a big buy now if you don't own him, and a hold if you do. Many of us were never high on Brandon Marshall anyways. This type of year is what we expected. Merely catching tons of balls doesn't make you an elite dynasty WR. Ah hello?Also, Felix gained weight this off season to try to stay healthy when he got hit if I remember right. For many guys who are relying on speed to get them good numbers, the decision to gain weight costs them in that it slows them down and they were never really that talented, they were just fast. So, now you got a guy who is average speed who stays healthy... meh. This is within the range of what I expected from Marshall.
  12. Jermichael Finley: I think he flashed elite talent both last season and this season. But he has and will miss large parts of two seasons (maybe 3) because of injury. Any reason to downgrade him due to a slightly higher risk of injury? Is he injury-prone? My experience is that dynasty owners value Finley no differently than before the injury unless they are in contention and need to move him for immediate help. Otherwise, they think he'll pick up where he left off and sky's the limit. My gut says to downgrade him at least a bit, maybe more.
  13. I'd like your detailed thoughts on Gradkowski. My gut says he keeps the job the rest of the year and he's a solid QB2 the rest of the way. But my head worries that he's had a journey-man like career thus far and he's nothing special. In fact, it could be a wasted roster spot if Oakland flip-flops him and Campbell depending on their mood.So would love to hear your thoughts on (1) general talent level, (2) has he improved since Tampa, (3) is he good enough to hold off Campbell in an alternating type situation, and (4) what's his upside. I wish I had access to and time for shortcuts.