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lyon812

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About lyon812

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  1. From Twitter: @gregauman: Bucs' Lovie Smith, asked if Josh McCown is his quarterback: "Yes, he is."
  2. I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there. It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes. Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin. I mostly agree with you. The surprise, to me, is that people seem to be higher on Patterson, Hopkins, and Floyd than Allen. Allen's fall in the draft seemed primarily injury-related, not talent, and he was recently quoted as saying the Vikings planned to pick him but when Patterson fell they couldn't resist. Thus, while I definitely agree it's too soon to anoint, people seem more down on Allen's prospects of being a long-term stud than some other comparable 1st-2nd year players.
  3. Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now. So, my thought is: What am I missing?
  4. Adam, always love your posts dude. Who are 5 backup QB's you'd target as potential stars within 3 to 4 years from now? Can only think of Osweiller, Cousins, Mallett, Nassib (Maybe, opportunity only), Jones (maybe, don't believe in the talent) unless you're still a fan of Chase Daniels... Tyler Bray is hiding out in KC and has a fair amount of talent that Reid could harness.
  5. A great read on Richardson is here: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/. I'm not sold on him, nor do I have him on any teams (despite a couple of offers) but I can't shake the feeling that people are going to get rid of him right before he breaks out, just like Lynch. That being said, it's easier to hold onto him in dynasty leagues than it is to figure out where to take him in a startup. I certainly wouldn't take him ahead of Lacy, who plays all three downs and runs with power, agility, and patience. He's great at play-action and ranks 11th in pass blocking. Only Marshawn Lynch forced more than Lacy’s 24 missed tackles on the ground this month, and Lacy ranks sixth with 2.6 ypc after contact. Downplaying him reminds me a lot of how people said that Morris wasn't that talented last year.
  6. That this is what happens when 1. Austin doesn't drop the ball 2. They stop throwing him poorly-designed screens and start utilizing his speed on deep routes, both fly and slant 3. His large gains are not called back penalty
  7. Why? It's what was said when he joined the league. Just an average talent that's replaceable. 6 years later no one says it. Joseph Addai was another one. Thanks, couldn't have answered it better myself. I was echoing EBF's sentiment that people underrated the talented backs that aren't flashy, or don't have the most amazing numbers in a vacuum. In particular, good vision and good hands can go a long way, especially in an offense that suits them or that doesn't rely on them being the focal point (such as Moreno).
  8. Forte is something of a poster child for people saying "he'll be replaced in a couple of years by a more talented back."
  9. And I think you're off on your post rookie season WPA/SR. Allow me to rephrase, as I realize that I might have worded that confusingly: After McCoy's rookie year, he had a 0.02 WPA and 41.7% success rate. Comparing McCoy's career stats to Martin's rookie season is where I felt the analysis is flawed.
  10. I think McCoy's better than Martin, but if we're going to compare numbers, shouldn't we compare them at relatively equal points in their careers? LeSean McCoy’s first 22 games, minus one "are the Giants even trying" 66-yard TD in garbage time in week 8 of his rookie year: 4.12 YPC and 9 career TDs. After McCoy’s rookie year: 0.02 WPA, 41.7% success rate--lower than the career 0.79/46% rate you mention for him. It's hard to know how to weight things like "success rate", which are too easily isolated. Adrian Peterson was 40th last year at 40.1; Jamaal Charles 41st at 40% (tied with James Starks), Ray Rice was 49th at 38.7%. Looking at it from that perspective, Martin being 46th at 39% doesn't seem too terrible considering the company he keeps. Martin's WPA is definitely low, but the website itself states that "WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing." McCoy has obviously gone on to be great. Will Martin? We'll see. But if you're a believer, this is the time to try and buy low.
  11. I can't see anyone parting with Hopkins for Blackmon, particularly since Hopkins has already impressed and has zero off-field problems. Honestly, if anyone's trying to move Blackmon, they need to be targeting WRs that owners might have soured on or are afraid will bust. Tavon Austin comes to mind, though even that's probably shooting high.
  12. He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games. And that postseason run is why a team will give him a big contract to be their WR1. If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years. I don't see a team giving him a big contract. At least as far as guaranteed money goes. But that is just my guess, and likely not worth much. What about a team gambling that he returns to full health and produces like he did in the past? If only takes one team to think he'll return to former glory. Look at the contract Sidney Rice signed.
  13. He had a great 50-yard catch/run/dive TD in the 3Q that was called back. This kid's a playmaker. Even if Cinci spreads the ball around, hard to imagine them not utilizing him and getting him more snaps.
  14. Not to pick on your post, but there are likely many players in the NFL with "possible depression issues" that are performing well. Just because only a few talk about it doesn't mean that it isn't a regular occurrence. Not everyone loves what they do 100% of the time, for myriad reasons. Anyway, for more insight on Lacy's history, I recommend this article: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-rookie-running-back-lacy-has-burden-to-carry-b9951355z1-215404221.html Excerpt: "In 2005, Katrina displaced more than a million people. The Lacys were among them. Before fleeing Gretna, the Lacys propped many items high on shelves. The plan was to return after the storm with a U-Haul and salvage what they could. But even those items — even Lacy's 3-foot high piggybank filled with coins — were stolen by looters. Lacy, his sister and their parents lived house to house, slept on floor to floor, survived meal to meal. First, they evacuated to Texas. They stayed with Lacy's aunt for a while near Baton Rouge, jammed into a three-bedroom home with five other families. Through the "Share Your Home" program, they later found a couple to live with from September to Thanksgiving. Then, finally, they settled into a shoebox of a trailer in Geismar, La."
  15. I don't think anyone is arguing that Michael doesn't have potential/promise. I think that's pretty universally agreed upon. People are arguing about his dynasty ranking. He has a lot of promise, but will he deliver on it? I don't think it's the mortal lock that some think it is. Even if he delivers on his promise, it likely won't be until 2015 at the earliest. Spending RB12-18 prices on him and then waiting that long is a tough pill to swallow. I like Michael, and would welcome him on any of my dynasty teams, but I don't think he's worth a top 40-50 startup pick. Perhaps I'm missing the point, but dynasty ranking isn't limited to where he'd be picked in 2014. It also involves his value as an existing asset on your team. This invariably factors in what was paid for him by 2013 drafters. Michael was typically drafted in early Round 2; as the preseason went on, he started going in late Rd 1. So, he was competing against these players: Zac Stacy Keenan Allen Marcus Lattimore Justin Hunter Robert Woods EJ Manuel Geno Smith Markus Wheaton Aaron Dobson Joseph Randle Zach Ertz Travis Kelce Terrance Williams Stedman Bailey Aside from Stacy and Allen, I don't think there's anyone in that group that holds Michael's potential for upper-tier production. Even if you don't think he'll be top-10, the other players drafted aren't exactly screaming out that they have superior upside. Thus, considering the intersection of price + situation + upside, I'm not surprised that owners are valuing him highly.