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hxperson

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About hxperson

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  1. The cut was about a weak global economy contributing to fairly poor data out of the US as well, in conjunction with already weak inflation metrics that were declining. In the months leading up to the cut we were already hearing the key members of the Fed (namely Williams and Clarida) talk about the enhanced effect that a pre-emptive cut would have on achieving the Fed’s goals, and as this rhetoric ramped up we saw the curve bull steepen. In other words the market was starting to price in the possibility of two cuts this year and the positive influence that this would have on inflation expectations (which anchors the long end). I think you are correct in that the market sort of backed Powell into a corner here. Bonds and risk assets were both pricing in the certainty of a rate cut and then some. If the Fed did not follow through, they risked severely disrupting financial conditions at a time when, as I mentioned, the data was getting worse and inflation was moving further and further away from 2%.
  2. Man I feel like we can’t even have two consecutive posts on topic in any of these threads without the same characters on the two sides yelling at each other about pots and kettles. I weep for our future. Back to the topic at hand, my thought on what Tim was saying regarding Trump and a trade deal is that while Trump would love to get a deal done with China that makes him look great, he is aware of how difficult and unlikely that is right now In the meantime, he can use the trade war to get something else that he really wants - more rate cuts from the Fed. If he can successfully push the Fed into more cuts and then comes up with a deal that perhaps doesn’t satisfy any bipartisan goals but lifts the tariffs sometime within the next year, he will likely have an economy and market that provides a strong tailwind into the election. So imo, worth it or not worth it doesn’t really factor in to any of the equation right now, despite that being a very logical question to ask.
  3. I manage bond funds at a major bank. Mostly corporate and high yield bonds.
  4. As someone who manages billions for a living and am constantly looking for interesting things to buy, I couldn’t agree more about this pullback being healthy. With regard to the election uncertainty, it definitely represents some downside risk for the markets. But I have a really hard time seeing how the Democrats can realistically mount a challenge at this point given how disorganized they appear. Ultimately, elections are about turnout however and a lot can happen to energize or deflate the bases and change the narrative. But the narrative today puts the GOP as heavy favorites imo.
  5. Sorry - I am talking about what matters with regard to Trump and re-election. I should have clarified
  6. It doesn’t matter what the stock market looks like today, provided we are not set up for a prolonged contraction. What matters is what the market (and more importantly, unemployment) looks like a year from now. Trump is creating a backdrop where we could have multiple rate cuts despite a growing economy and unemployment below 4%. In doing so, he’s dramatically increasing the chances that things look great next summer from an economic perspective, while also enriching himself by hundreds of millions as low rates boost real estate valuations.
  7. Got to tip my hat to Trump. Dude is owning the game right now. Took him a couple years to find his groove, but he is killing it, like Reggie Miller in NBA Jam.
  8. Why do people keep saying “1 shot away”? The game was tied when Kawhi hit that shot - so the Sixers were 1 shot away from an overtime on the road. That’s a pretty meaningful difference from one shot away from advancing IMO.
  9. Never thought this day would come. Doesn’t even feel real
  10. Thanks yeah I missed all that as I only started looking at the thread this morning
  11. Well, only been on this board to be honest, and no one has been saying it here.
  12. The scorn for the fans is well deserved, but why is nobody criticizing the Warriors organization for letting him play? He suffered a non contact injury doing a normal basketball move before finishing even one half of play. Somebody was pretty reckless to have given him the green light.
  13. I agree we have a lot of really stupid fans. A lot of them make me very angry (just look at all the crazies on realgm). I chalk it up to a large portion of the base being young and angry/frustrated (for never winning anything, for cheering for a team that everyone calls chokers, for being considered a small market, for the media here who talks about hockey 99% of the time, etc.). Last night was a pretty bad night for this city all the way around.
  14. Who was injured in game 1 outside of KD that was “decimating”?
  15. Raptors are 3-0 and +47 in Oracle this year. That’s wild.