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fightingillini

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fightingillini last won the day on May 27 2013

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About fightingillini

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  1. Number of WR with 10+ targets per game in whole year 2019 - 1 ( 5 had 150-159) 2018 - 5 2017 - 4 ( 1 had 159) 2016 - 2 ( 6 had 150-159) So getting 10+ targets a game usually is in the top 5 WR of targets. You don't need 10+ targets to get WR1 numbers. Brown is getting 7-9, so he's on pace for a 130 target season (if he played the full 16 games). AJ Brown has 23 rec on 32 targets, for a 72% catch rate. That's above his last year catch rate of 62%. Given is YPC is over 14 yards, he doen't need 10+ targets to post top 12 numbers. Given his target share and current stats, he on pace for over 90 receptions for a 16 game year. At his YPC that would be over 1300 yds receiving and 9-13 TDs. That's elite numbers.
  2. Not enough in a dynasty league. Robinson is in his 7th year, Brown in his 2nd. That's huge in dynasty.
  3. Dynasty is a little trickier. I was talking about redraft.
  4. I would trade Lamar and roll the dice with Herbert. At worst Herbert is a low end QB1, and we saw his upside which is through the roof. Lamar is still very good, but we have seen BAL take their foot off the gas when the game is out of hand. He is past his bye as well. Herbert will help win a lot of titles this year, and will easily be one of the waiver wire pickups of the year.
  5. I had Jackson on bye, so in my superflex league, I started Newton and Dalton. It didn't go well for me.
  6. Playing against Daniel Jones in one of my superflex leagues. Jones tripping on that long run cost my opponent 12 points (Jones would have got to 100 yards rushing and a TD and we have a 5 point bonus for 100 yards rushing). My opponent is 1-11 (we play doubleheaders), so this is just par for the course for him.....he lost Saquon and Chubb and has had every ball bounce against him.
  7. Problem is KC has a lot of playmakers. CEH looked great, they just signed Bell, and Kelce is the best TE in football. Watkins, Hardman and Robinson can also make plays. Great coaches and great QBs are masters of exploiting mismatches. It was clear to me that BUF was taking Hill out the game, and they paid dearly for it to the tune of 200 yards rushing and 2 TDs from Kelce. Hill has never been a volume WR. He has always been very productive with his targets, so he going to have a good year. But it appears to me that KC is going to be more balanced on offense. Last year Hill had 88 targets in 12 games, about 7.5 per game. Only in 2018 he had a lot of targets at 137. So currently he's below his typical pace, but right now he's on pace for 67 rec, 1024 yds, 11 TDs and 144 yds rushing and 2 TDs. That is still a solid WR1, and it could get better. WRs will have dud games. Hill had one yesterday. It happens.
  8. This is actually a good thing. We all saw what happened to Barkley, he came back too soon from his HAS and he wasn't the same player pretty much all year. Davis is producing, so there is no reason for CAR to rush CMC back. CAR is only 1 game out of first place, so they want to make sure CMC is fully healthy. Sucks for his fantasy owners.
  9. No reason to use Hill when you're running the ball right down the defenses throat. Plus it was raining a lot last night and BUF was playing to take Hill out. KC took what the defense gave them......Mahomes had no reason to push the ball the down the field.
  10. No, CEH would have just got those on the ground considering how BUF is getting gashed on the ground.
  11. At work and can't see the game. Is BUF doubling Hill a lot or is the matchup much better for Robinson and Kelce?
  12. On this point, it does matter if you're getting a couple of yards vs no gain vs loss of two. The difference between 3rd and 6 vs 3rd and 10 vs 3rd and 14 is big.....the conversion rates are about 45%, 30% and 20% for 3rd and 6, 3rd and 10, and 3rd and 14, respectively. So getting those few yards or back to the LOS matters a lot when trying to sustain drives. I suspect the coaches like that. And you should like it since your RB's best chance to accumulate points is when the offense can put together long drives.
  13. Nobody is saying that Montgomery is an elite talent. He isn't. I agree with much of your post. He's pretty slow to change directions, unlike the elite RBs. But he does get volume and catches a lot of passes. Volume does matter so Montgomery should be a weakish RB2, but he's indeed a fantasy starter. I would be worried about his dynasty value. If you can get a decent offer for Montgomery I would take it.
  14. League that matters 1/2 PPR, 4 pts per TD pass.....up 37.5, I have Hill, my opponent has Mahomes and Hopkins. I am probably a 2-1 favorite, but Hopkins against the Cowboys scares me. Would not be surprised if Hopkins goes off big this week.