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Fighting Noles

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  1. He'd be hurt a lot more by a QB like Tarvaris Jackson than Percy Harvin would.Agreed, but like we were saying about Vince Young when someone asked about Kenny Britt last season... either Jackson is a liability and he gets replaced, or he's not and he doesn't hold Rice back. Personally, I think bringing Favre back for another season just gives the Packers one last chance to make sure that Jackson never starts another game for them. Who are the free agent signal-callers next offseason? Are you really that confident that the Vikings don't wind up with one of them?I'm not sure its as much that as F&L not taking the long view that you are. He's always had a tendency to make some relatively dramatic shifts in rankings at the beginning of a season and come back around to long-view by the end. Its certainly a logical conclusion from weighting immediate, known production as higher than the "could be", and Rice gets a zero in the short-term score column.Personally, I think you're both wrong. He should drop farther than you'll move him, and he shouldn't drop as far as F&L has (will). While I love his talent, in a lot of ways he's got the same problems as what you've encountered with Lee Evans, and debated against the Maclin fanatics a couple pages back. There are just too many talented receivers out there for anyone to occupy a top spot when they've got question marks.THIS & VJAX also should (will) come down also because of the ? marks.....
  2. You got a good player for a proven great player. Did you screw the pooch? Well, I like Nicks and think he will be a top 20 WR with the possibility of being a top 10 WR, but will he fulfill that potential? So much depends on team situation and there are a lot of mouths to feed in NY and historically they are a run heavy team. VJax has some question marks, but I think you sold him short. You should have gotten Nicks AND a future first round pick IMO.These are PPR Leagues I believe that Wick plays in. I don't know of anybody in my PPR Dynasty Leagues (where VJax's value is lower) who would give Nicks AND a 1st Rd pick for VJax, especially with his current situation so up in the air.
  3. SSOG - I guess we just differ somewhat then when it comes to how much inertia to place in ones rankings. I think Chris (F & L) has done a great job with this thread & his blog and I have used it as a resource in every Dynasty draft I've participated in. But, it also has helped remind me just how quickly things do change in the NFL and why I've liked F & L's stances often, because he usually has adjusted quickly. If you check his archives on the blog, at WR, in late August, 2008 (just two seasons ago, @ the position which most consider the longest shelflife & stablest) the following WR's were ranked in the Top 25 (WR's 1 or 2): 7) Braylon (Mid 30's for most now, definite uncertainty though) 9) T.O. (Done? - Late draft pick) 12) Holt (Ditto - Not even drafted depending on league size) 13) Holmes (On run first team now & knucklehead factor) 15) Roy Williams ( I just drafted him in the 19th RD of a startup as my WR8) 16) Bowe (Big year coming up for him as far as future value goes) 17) Plax (Done - "Knucklehead") 18) Housh (Going pretty late now in my drafts) 19) Evans (Talent still there but going in the 40's now usually) 21) Cotchery (Going too late now IMO, but late nonetheless) 23) Marvin H (F&L was hoping for at least one more season but no go) 25) SMoss (Very up/Down - Hopefully McNabb helps some) That's 12 of the 25 & I think F & L is one of the best at doing this (& putting it out there for all to track - Kudos for the archives by the way Chris, a lot of other sites don't list their past years). He also had Roddy @ #22 but considered him a "Prime Sell High" with Turners'/Ryans' arrival & stated that he'd have SSmith #3 (& fighting for #1, instead of #5 where he ranked him) if it wasn't for his concerns over short & long term QB issues. Again, I think everyone can see there are valid reasons for why some/many of these guys are no longer near their previous ranks, but I do think its fair game to discuss issues like contracts, QB's, age, knuckleheads, etc. when it comes to these guys because things do change very quickly IMO & avoiding the ones who drop or underperform is key to long term production in Dynasty Leagues. I think two years ago most people would have agreed that those guys were "talented" or passed the eyeball test but now the list looks a lot different.....
  4. Thanks for the clarifying on VJax's ranking & for the contract thoughts as well Chris....
  5. Sorry guys - obviously capitalization of certain words in a post is what we need to be focusing on here and not the content. No more caps though if it distracts certain readers....
  6. I don't think F & L has downgraded VJAX (he had him #4 post draft) & I think you said you moved him from #4 to #6, a downgrade yes, but still pretty darn high in the entire scheme of things. And again, "if they change at all" or very/very/very/very slowly (& that not really even being a possibility for you to consider IMO), is where we disagree on Fitz. Again, I RESPECT your work on this board and in this thread a lot (& F&L's too - A LOT). I just think sometimes (& we are ALL guilty of it) we lock into certain players and nothing really will change our minds. I think it is good to see how unchallengeable someones opinion of a certain player is because that may help me (& the other members here) decide how we evaluate said player. FWIW, I think we disagree a lot more on VJAX's possible change in status than Fitzs' because I think Fitz is much more talented than VJAX. I agree, by the way, that Fitz is the most talented WR in the NFL but I am concerned with whether Leinart can throw for 3500 yards as you stated in the other Fitz thread & therefore my #'s would be down somewhat for all the rec. options in ARZ this year. Either way, I appreciate the back & forth and hope you are not taking it at all personally, because I know it may seem as if I am purposefully picking on YOU. That is not the case AT ALL. It just so happens that 3 of the players (VJAX/Stewart/Fitz-somewhat, I own him on 3 teams by the way) I seem to be "struggling" with ranking this year for DYNASTY with PLAYERS around them (not whether or not they are talented) are three who YOU are the biggest supporters of.
  7. So things can change "fast" in FANTASY - which I wholeheartedly agree with, but not for Fitz or VJAX?
  8. Are you going to do this for every position? So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well? I always think that more information = better, but I suspect this might require more work than it may be worth. If you're already doing all those unit evaluations it's one thing, but I don't know if it's necessary to do them from scratch for this purpose.That's what I was going to point out....redundancy. Perhaps have a team link with each of those and then your normal positional breakdowns(I do look at them and appreciate them by the way).I am for WHATEVER keeps the BLOG RANKINGS OPEN Chris.....If this extra work forces the elimination of the blog (ie: only ROTOWORLD Rankings - And aren't those top 200 only or would you be ranking each position there) then I am against it (LOL), since I truly enjoy the blog/rankings.
  9. We agree on that part then SSOG (holdout doesn't = knucklehead). Also, I NEVER got into the Marshall "knucklehead" debate, nor defended him. I also wasn't comparing Marshall to VJAX in that regard either (although the DUI's/suspension looming is "troubling" when compared to others ranked around him with no such issues). I simply felt (& still do feel) when I wrote that, if it was Marshall threatening a hold out - We would have had another "Here goes another day in the life of Brandon owners" thread started and instead we have had a lot of - "It's June fellas" or "This happens all the time, etc." I think this is simply because two of the main contributors here (F & L and yourself - and I stated that both of your contributions have added a TON to this entire thread and to the board as a whole, along with many others who post in here and that I value when reading) happen to like VJAX a LOT. You both have him as either WR4 or 5 in Dynasty. First off, the situation with the CBA & RFA's status is VERY DIFFERENT this year from previous ones and it lends itself to players in VJAXs' case (who we both agree, as he surely does, should be better compensated) POSSIBLY being willing to sit out rather than play for an inferior salary and risk injury. IF AJ does not "reup" the lowered tender, I simply don't see VJAX playing for $600K this year. Throw in the suspension (lost salary $'s) and the fact that the CBA is in "limbo" right now and quite frankly, ownership holds most of the cards in his case IMO. I know many here will say that SD can't win without him or that they would be seriously hurting their chances, but when you look at that division I'm not sure AJ/Mgmnt. agree with that. I think they would be "ok" with him missing 10 games & playing in the postseason and I think VJAX might feel "well we'll see how you do in the postseason without me". This is why I thought it needed to be considered in a player ranked so highly. I also feel playing with Rivers (a top 5 QB), helps VJAX, and if he somehow leaves SD over this, that could also impact his ranking. I have also read from others who like him that high - "Well what is the BIG difference between WR4 or 10 anyway", F&L has them all in the same tier and we are just arguing around the "edges" or over slight disagreements, etc. I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time. Where I think Chris' gets "ticked" sometimes, is with those who don't feel VJAX is talented - I never said that. I simply am not sure he is AS talented or more importantly, will be given the full opportunity to showcase those talents (I do feel Gianmarcos' target argument has a lot of validity on players ranked THIS HIGH) as others in the same tier. I think these ARE the things that should be discussed in this thread, along with whether Rice/Harvin warrant their rankings once Favre leaves, Waynes' age & Garcon/Collie stepping up last year, Marshalls' "knuckleheadness", Gore & SJAXs' "tipping points" etc... BECAUSE those are the types of questions that mine & many other leagues deal with every day when a trade is offered or a draft starts. These are all top tier players and choosing the right one is very important IMO & quite frankly why I like this thread so much. I know everyone LOVES finding the next Austin, Rice(s) or other guy that seemingly comes out of nowhere (and this thread helps a lot in that regard too) but I'd much rather get my core group of players "right" (especially for those of us who play in LARGER leagues with less margin for error) and let my drafting hopefully take over once the top 60 or so are off the board. EVERYBODY basically knows the top 25-30 guys but they may have vastly different opinions on where those players rank. That's why I don't think it's "nitpicking" to discuss VJAX's contract situation or lack of targets here and why I said I RESPECTFULLY disagreed with Chris using the DVOA/DYOR #'s to support his case (since the rankings bump up most big target guys - like I said, Floyd was 7th in both, yet F & L has him ranked 73rd). I totally agree with you both saying "I see it with my eyes on the field" - But that is true with most top 10 - 15 guys at their position (esp. WR) and figuring out which ones will really STAY ranked that high based on those talents is the KEY & why I think some of us keep coming back here to discuss certain players.... Thanks as always for the feedback & thinking it over for a couple of days (& for your "edit" above F & L).
  10. I wasn't really debating #1 - I WAS however debating #2, ESPECIALLY at this point in time and where he still continues to be drafted in Dynasty Startups.
  11. I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans. It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in. Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production. Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too. In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable. Come on Chris - I have no problem if you or SSOG want to argue whether VJAX is "elite" based on talent & what you all see on the field. but basing it on the DVOA & PF Focus #'s BECAUSE they happen to help support your case in THIS instance is seriously flawed IMO.FLOYD finished 7th in both DVOA & PFFocus - Maybe Rivers is just very efficient at delivering a good deep ball & letting his big, tall WR's go up & get it (I happen to feel that's partly the case) - yet he is ranked outside your top 50 & received the SAME tender from the Chargers that VJAX did. In PFFocus #'s - BESS finished Top 10 & MUSHIN & CHAMBERS both finished TOP 25. Walter was in the top 25 of DVOA & Cotchery finished top 10 in both metrics I believe. You can argue that recs. don't matter but they relate to the type of O that a team runs, or how much a team targets a certain WR & in FANTASY that does matter. Like Gianmarco said in his post, VJAX with fewer targets/recs than the others in the top 10 has much less margin for error. If Matthews ends up being better than LT (the past 2 years LT) & SD becomes more run oriented (Norvs' basic tendency IMO) does VJax get MORE targets? Plus, on the "knucklehead" front, if this was Marshall "holding out" I can guarantee you it would be MUCH MORE of a "concern" to you & others. But it seems that since you like VJAX the contract situation, suspension (DUI's), etc. are "no big deal" & just part of the normal NFL bargaining process (the CJ & Revis situations aren't the SAME, since both were first RD talent & considered the BEST @ their respective positions, & much more valuable to their teams IMO). Maybe SD management doesn't feel the same & those things do matter to them when figuring in a player in their long term plans. To not take those things into account when discussing DYNASTY value (on a WR you have #4) NOW (you yourself have said that these things - rankings - can be very fluid, I remember the huge amount of guff the poster got last year because he said he wanted Austin ranked over Ocho after his first two big games, yet now it is universally accepted) however doesn't seem to make much sense. I don't think any VJAX owner should be panicking & selling but I'm not sure anybody should be paying top 10 value to buy him now either. I LOVE this thread & the whole Dynasty discussion - I think it is one of the MOST valuable things in the SP (& in FBGuys for that matter) but in this case I just happen to RESPECTFULLY disagree with you.
  12. Exactly SSOG....The LEAGUE SETTINGS make a HUGE difference when considering some of the trades and trade value questions that are thrown out here. I always hear whoever got the "best player" won (& in many cases I agree), but in the VJax/Boldin for Fitz ? above, what if the possible starting requirements are 1 RB & 5 WR in a PPR (or 2/4)?. I play in some leagues like this and obviously the strategy is a LOT different than a 1/2/2 NO FLEX format. You can have Fitz and a lot of nothings at WR in a league like that (happens in auctions a lot) and get crushed by a team with 5 WR's ranked in the 15-25 range (or 4 & 2 decent RB's). That's why when people say here - "That trade looks really bad", it is almost impossible to know without the settings and format (PPR or NON PPR).
  13. SSOG - I know I couldn't get anybody in any of my leagues to give me ROMO for two LATE firsts after the addition of Bryant this offseason, unless they were in SERIOUS rebuild mode. But each league is different. As for Ward, his RECS. (I play in PPR leagues, like a lot of us do) and YARDS have gone UP in EACH of the last FIVE years (except for 2007 when he missed a few games & even then they basically matched 2006 & were ahead of it on a PPG basis), culminating in 95/1167/6 last year....That was 7 whole points behind the almighty VJAX (Weeks 1-16) and AHEAD of such guys as Ocho/Boldin/Colston/Jennings/MSW/Holmes/Harvin & CALVIN. Now I don't want to have the whole PPR debate all over again, but the fact is that a LOT of us play in those leagues and Ward definitely still holds value there. As much as those guys? Of course not - AGE matters, we ALL know that. But he doesn't cost anywhere near as much either. Would I rather have two more years of WR2 PPR production from him if I was contending or take a rookie WR @ 1.11 - 2.02? I'm not sure. Those guys in that range don't thrill me this year to be honest. Also, Ben may only miss 4 games and who is Lefty/Dixon/Batch going to throw to then anyway? Precision deep routes to Wallace or Sanders the rookie? That's Bens' strength, not those guys. I don't see why Ward couldn't catch 5 or 6 12-15 yarders from them a game too. Also, the SAME thing (he's DONE) was said about MASON each of the last THREE years and he definitely had value in PPR formats. Check out the redraft PPR rankings on this site for Ward this year. They may ALL be wrong but maybe not. Holmes leaving could cause Ben to lean on Hines even more for all we know.... Now YOU might be right, but you might not be & he could seriously outperform his PPR ADP again. Different opinions is what makes this hobby interesting..... I appreciate your input in this thread SSOG by the way, I just happen to disagree with it here.
  14. If it wasn't a top 3 pick, then I would not do it unless the other player was a top prospect.OK - It was the 1.03 & Hines Ward....My thinking was that hopefully in a PPR FORMAT Ward could put up similar #'s to Wayne the next 2 years (a dropoff, but hopefully not substantial) and I needed a young RB (or Bryant, by some miracle if he fell there) to pair with Stewart & Benson (we start 3).I had noticed the same thing as Anthony had regarding the second half of the year (Garcon basically had the same # of targets) with Wayne and there are a LOT of mouths to feed there. I was "happy" with the trade because I thought it helped my team but I think the other guy was happy also (It is a competitive league & there aren't these slamdunk type trades I see posted here). The 1.01 was out of the question (he wouldn't even consider it) & the 1.02 wanted Wayne AND player(s), picks....Just one league but I was trying to show where his value was there right now.