swampdog

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About swampdog

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    Footballguy

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    California
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    2010 "Survivor" Champion
    2013 "Survivor" Co-Champion

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    San Diego Chargers
  1. My league gives a bonus (1/2 a touchdown, with a QB over 300 yards). So I was adding up the yards for J. Winston today, and I have different yards than CBS Sports http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2015102505/2015/REG7/buccaneers@redskins#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000565016&tab=recap and the NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2015102505/2015/REG7/buccaneers@redskins#tab=analyze&analyze=boxscore&menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000564829 Yes 21 catches, but they total 307, those initials after the yards are the players who caught the pass. 1st Q 11:05 40 yds ME 8:02 29 yds LM 7:31 25 yds ME 6:04 10 yds DM 2:30 9 yds ME 1:55 11 yds DM 1:06 13 yds VJ 2nd Q 14:20 8 yds CS 11:41 7 yds DD 3:41 4 yds BR Half 3rd Q 14:51 14 yds DM 6:06 24 yds ME 5:04 6 yds LS 4:22 20 yds ME 4th Q 15:00 11 yds LS 6:40 16 yds ME 5:26 5 yds LS 4:45 14 yds ME :24 16 yds ME :18 6 yds CB :12 19 yds CS Total yards 307 Any comments? I am sure it affects more fantasy players than just me. Swamp
  2. TZMarkie, below is the link of the way Riversco ran it in 2013, and I think it's a good way to do it. It is much harder. Check it out. Pick a winner and a loser, every week, no repeats. https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/699383-2013-survivor-wk-12-2-left-swampdog-vs-frog/?p=16225501 Swamp
  3. Hello TC, The Frog, Jeff Pasquino, anyone? We took a year off last year. Maybe someone wants to run this again?
  4. Collinsworth said it perfect. You subtract a LeVeon Bell and add a Haloti Ngata. Baltimore wins, in an upset.
  5. And the Overs win out, again, now 8 out of 9.
  6. Another view point on how this weeks games plays out.Swamp Carolina vs. Arizona.....Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total. This from Vegas Insider, means the Carolina vs. Arizona should bet the overs (39). Balt vs. Pitt​Next.............​But both meetings this year have been decided by 20 points each (20-point win by Baltimore in September and 20-point win by Pittsburgh in November). Pittsburgh finished 5-1 SU against playoff teams this year while Baltimore was 1-6 against teams with winning records. Pitt vs. Balt. this is the point I like, Bet Pitt to win and give the pointsNext.............Indianapolis (-3.5, 49) vs. Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Indy ran away with the AFC South by winning five of the final six games, those wins coming against teams with a combined record of 25-55 – none against playoff participants. In fact, only two of their 11 wins came against playoff teams this season, but one of those wins was against the Bengals back in Week 7. The Colts are led by the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind star QB Andrew Luck. Luck finished with 40 pass TD and 16 INT and tossed for 300+ pass yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He’ll be going against a Cincinnati pass-defense that has really played well of late. The Bengals have held the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to just 236 pass YPG with 4 pass TD allowed with 8 INT. Much is made of Cincinnati’s recent struggles in the postseason headlined by concerns about QB Dalton’s weak play. Dalton has just 1 pass TD and 6 INT in three career playoff games, failing to lead the Bengals to a postseason victory in three appearances. Indy, can beat bad teams but they struggle against good D, and Cincy D is playing well lately. And yes, Indy stepped all over Cincy in week 7, but the final score didn't tell the whole story. Cincy wasn't playing well prior to that game and wasn't using Hill much at RB (4 for 15 yards), and Indy was playing well and had some unusual plays (like Allens and Bradshaws TD's). Also "The teams were a combined 0 for 14 on third-down conversions in the first half, marking the first time that's happened in the same game since Cincinnati and Jacksonville did it Sept. 30, 2012, according to STATS. ..." I say the bet is Cincy straight up, don't take the points, they will win.Detroit vs. DallasNext........Perhaps the most integral part of Dallas’ success this season was its offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL. They’ll have their hands full against this Detroit defense that ranked 1st against the run, 2nd in total yards allowed, and 3rd in points allowed. This defense got some very good news that star DT Ndamukong Suh won his appeal. I like the unders in this game, Dallas is in for a surprise on how good the D really is and the referees will swallow their whistles. Bet the unders
  7. I think Sigmund Bloom nailed this. Good reading. Just my opinion. Swamp.... Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Brady, but had to settle for Peyton, then you are going to favor Broncos over Patriots for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the mid and late parts of your draft. quarterbacks1. Tom Brady - NE 2. Russell Wilson - SEA Both are the most likely to play three games and the Super Bowl and be very productive along the way. Probably gone in the top 3-4 of every draft. 3. Aaron Rodgers - GB 4. Peyton Manning - DEN Rodgers should be great for the divisional round, but a trip to Seattle for the Conference Championship could be rough. Manning could easily be one and done, and not put up great numbers in the process. If you don't have a strong belief in either of these teams, take a non-QB core piece of a team you believe in instead. 5. Tony Romo - DAL 6. Ben Roethlisberger - PIT 7. Cam Newton - CAR 8. Andrew Luck - IND Your favorites in the wild card round, and all of them are set up for fantasy success. They are roughly ranked by my confidence level in them winning this weekend, but I'm open to bumping Luck to the top of the tier on his jackpot potential as even a two-start QB. Romo or Roethlisberger could easily get hot and make a three or four game run, and Newton would have a puncher's chance in Seattle or Green Bay along with the luxury of facing a banged up Drew Stanton or Ryan Lindley this weekend. I have the lowest confidence in the Colts, although they did thump the Bengals in the first meeting, and Andy Dalton. 9. Matthew Stafford - DET 10. Joe Flacco - BAL 11. Andy Dalton - CIN 12. Ryan Lindley/Drew Stanton - ARI These are your starters that are likely one and done, but could always pull off a road upset to extent their lives and productivity. If you get one of the four bye QBs, ideally you can pair two wild card quarterbacks that are playing each other so you know at least one will advance to the second round. Stafford has the highest wild card round ceiling, but maybe the lowest chance to advance. Flacco has a decent chance to advance and a good matchup, but his play has been very uneven lately. Dalton had the worst game of his career in Indianapolis earlier this year, but he has an even better chance of advancing than Flacco does. The Cardinals starter (monitor the reports this week) has a very low fantasy ceiling for this weekend, and would probably go to Seattle if they can somehow win. 13. Matt Flynn - GB 14. Jimmy Garoppolo - NE 15. Tarvaris Jackson - SEA In a 20 roster spot, six team draft, you have a few spots at the end to throw a hail mary. Flynn is a good Rodgers handcuff or Wilson hedge because Rodgers isn't 100%. Garoppolo or Jackson could play in a blowout win or if the starter gets hurt, and both are on Super Bowl favorites. The one of Stanton and Lindley that is not named the starter goes here too. running backs1. Marshawn Lynch - SEA A stud producer at a difficult position to get points from on a Super Bowl favorite. Wouldn't blame you if you took him #1 overall. 2. Eddie Lacy - GB 3. Demarco Murray - DAL 4. CJ Anderson - DEN I won't argue vigorously against reordering this trio. All are likely to play at least two games, any could be in the Super Bowl, and all are hot entering the playoffs. I like Lacy the best because the Packers have been feeding him 25+ touches at times lately, and they'll be even more encouraged to with Aaron Rodgers balky leg. Murray is amazing and could easily be the key to winning playoff fantasy drafts, especially if you can pair him with Romo or Bryant later. Anderson has been hoovering up touchdowns for the Broncos and has the potential to justify his draft pick in just one game against the weak Steelers or Colts defenses. 5. LeGarrette Blount - NE Jonas Gray is banged up and this is Blount's time of year. Just look at how the Patriots used him in the playoffs last year. 6. Jeremy Hill - CIN Hill is going to be a great value pick in playoff drafts. He could easily put up 20+ in a loss to the Colts and provide plenty of payoff on a pick in the fifth round or later on that game alone. If the Bengals can win, they will do it by running Hill a ton, and they will likely try that again until it fails. 7. Shane Vereen - NE Vereen has been underwhelming this year, but if he plays three games, he could allow you to make up gaps on opponents in the last two rounds of the playoffs. 8. LeVeon Bell - PIT I have no idea what to do with Bell. There is a chance that he surprises us and looks like 80-90% of his normal self this weekend. If he even produces at 50% of his normal self this weekend in a win, he'll be easily worth a third round pick. The Steelers could hold him out in hope of a better performance in the divisional round and more gas in the tank for the rest of the playoffs, which would make Bell a jackpot pick if they can win and then a closer to 100% Bell gets rolling against the Broncos in a win. Bell could also be a shadow of himself and ineffective, even if the Steelers passing game carries him a round or two. You'll probably have to make this decision before you get good information. I'd err on the side of passing in the top 15 or so, and maybe a lot longer. 9. Justin Forsett - BAL Forsett could have a huge game against the Steelers, maybe even in a win. A great mid-round value pick. 10. Jonathan Stewart- CAR Stewart has a rough matchup to open the playoffs, and will likely go to Seattle if Carolina wins. He could be productive via volume, but the outlook is dim. 11. Joique Bell - DET Don't overlook Bell because he's likely one and done. That "one" could be enough to account for 1/4 to 1/3 of your RB scoring. 12. Robert Turbin - SEA 13. Christine Michael - SEA 14. Jonas Gray - NE 15. James Starks - GB 16. Ronnie Hillman - DEN 17. Joseph Randle - DAL None of this group has a great week-to-week outlook without an injury, but they are all more likely than not to play multiple games, if not all the way to end. They are also all capable backs who can produce well if the starter does go down. 18. Giovani Bernard - CIN 19. Daniel Herron - IND One of these two backs is going to play two games (or more) and they have a decent weekly ceiling, especially in PPR. If you can take both at the turn, you've done well with your RB Depth/Flex option. 20. Reggie Bush - DET Bush is likely one and done but could have a very nice game on the Jerryworld turf in a catchup game script. He's a great back to take if you spend one or two high picks on running backs with byes. 21. John Kuhn - GB 22. Trent Richardson - IND 23. Josh Harris - PIT 24. Dri Archer - PIT 25. Lance Dunbar - DAL 26. Mike Tolbert - CAR Any of these guys could notch a surprise touchdown and play two or more games for you. Kuhn is an old good luck charm of mine in playoff drafts, Richardson still has some loyalty from the Colts, Harris and Archer might get more work than you think with Bell ailing, Dunbar is explosive and Tolbert is Carolina's Kuhn. 27. Theo Riddick - DET 28. Kerwynn Williams - ARI 29. Stepfan Taylor - ARI 30. DeAngelo Williams - CAR 31. Bernard Pierce - BAL The chances of a deep playoff run - or even two games - might be small, but any of these backs could come through with 10 point performance in the first round to help with shaky wild card running back depth. 32. Brandon Bolden - NE 33. James White - NE 34. James Develin - NE 35. Will Tukuafu - SEA Every chip you can have on the Patriots or Seahawks helps. 36. DuJuan Harris - GB 37. Fozzy Whittaker - CAR 38. Marion Grice - ARI 39. Juwan Thompson - DEN 40. Zurlon Tipton - IND 41. Ryan Hewitt - CIN 42. Will Johnson - PIT 43. Kyle Juszcyzk - BAL 44. Jed Collins - DET 45. Jeremy Stewart - DEN 46. Rex Burkhead - CIN 47. Cedric Peerman - CIN 48. Robert Hughes - ARI 49. Fitzgerald Toussaint - BAL 50. George Winn - DET wide receivers1. Dez Bryant - DAL 2. Jordy Nelson - GB 3. Antonio Brown - PIT 4. Demaryius Thomas - DEN 5. Randall Cobb - GB 6. Julian Edelman - NE 7. Brandon LaFell - NE 8. Emmanuel Sanders - DEN There is a breathtaking amount of wide receiver talent in the playoffs. These rankings are very fluid, with a bigger role given to your beliefs about the team prospects than the receiver because the talent level is so high - with the exception of the New England duo, which move up if you go Brady or Gronk in the first to solidify your position on the Patriots. Any of the top five listed could be the highest scoring wide receiver in the playoffs with only two games played. 9. Calvin Johnson - DET 10. A.J. Green - CIN 11. TY Hilton - IND 12. Doug Baldwin - SEA 13. Torrey Smith - BAL 14. Steve Smith - BAL This tier is mostly likely one-off players, but with a very high ceiling in that one game and jackpot potential if they get surprise road wins. Hilton's team is a favorite, but his hamstring could be an issue. Baldwin doesn't have a high weekly ceiling, but you might want to forgo a big wild card weekend performer to get a nice-sized chip to put on the Seattle passing game. 15. Martavis Bryant - PIT 16. Kelvin Benjamin - CAR 17. Jermaine Kearse - SEA 18. Paul Richardson - SEA 19. Golden Tate - DET 20. Markus Wheaton - PIT 21. Terrance Williams - DAL 22. Michael Floyd - ARI This tier is a potpourri of boom/bust wild card performers with a decent chance of multiple games, a couple of upside plays in Week 1 that are underdogs, and Kearse/Richardson, another chance to get a piece of Seattle or fortify an early Lynch/Wilson pick. 23. Davante Adams - GB 24. Danny Amendola - NE 25. Wes Welker - DEN 26. Reggie Wayne - IND None of these players will have difference-making stat lines, but they have multi-game potential and help strengthen a position on the team later in your draft. 27. Cole Beasley - DAL 28. Ricardo Lockette - SEA 29. Jerricho Cotchery - CAR 30. Philly Brown, CAR 31. Donte Moncrief - IND This group has multi-game potential and they all have touchdown or big play potential in those games despite limited targets. 32. Larry Fitzgerald - ARI 33. Mohamed Sanu - CIN 34. Hakeem Nicks - IND It feels weird to have Fitzgerald so low after he dominated the 2009 playoffs, but Ryan Lindley. Sanu could be a surprise performer and play multiple games. Nicks has a low ceiling, but could get a lot of targets if Wayne and Hilton are ailing. 35. Kevin Norwood - SEA 36. Brian Tyms - NE 37. Cody Latimer - DEN 38. Andre Caldwell - DEN 39. Josh Boyce - NE 40. Jarrett Boykin - GB They're way down on the depth chart, but remember David Tyree? A chance to get another blind dart throw for the later rounds. 41. Kamar Aiken - BAL 42. Marlon Brown - BAL 43. John Brown - ARI 44. Jaron Brown - ARI 45. Ted Ginn - ARI 46. Brandon Tate - CIN 47. Jacoby Jones - BAL 48. Corey Fuller - DET 49. Michael Campanero - BAL 50. Jeremy Ross - DET Some hail marys to fill out a weak wild card week WR corps. tight ends1. Rob Gronkowski - NE Just like in the regular season, almost an unfair advantage 2. Jason Witten - DAL 3. Greg Olsen - CAR 4. Heath Miller - PIT 5. Coby Fleener - IND Good first round matchups and chances of playing more than one game. 6. Julius Thomas - DEN Has been a shadow of himself lately, but still a premium TE pick in a thin group. 7. Luke Willson - SEA Big play potential and a good shot at playing in the Super Bowl. 8. Andrew Quarless - GB 9. Richard Rodgers - GB Will come cheap and could be reasonably productive for multiple games. 10. Jermaine Gresham - CIN 11. Owen Daniels - BAL Likely one and done but will notch some points if your #1 TE is a first-round bye player. 12. Tim Wright - NE 13. Tony Moeaki - SEA Could catch a touchdown in the later rounds, which can tip the scales in a close total points battle. 14. Dwayne Allen - IND Banged up, but a touchdown machine when he's on the field. 15. Michael Hoomanawanui, NE 16. Cooper Helfet, SEA 17. Gavin Escobar, DAL More potential random touchdown scores with a chance to be alive deep in the playoffs. 18. Eric Ebron, DET 19. Darren Fells, ARI 20. Crockett Gillmore, BAL 21. John Carlson, ARI 22. Ed Dickson, CAR 23. Matt Spaeth, PIT 24. Jack Doyle, IND Shot in the dark for points on wild card weekend. kickers1. Stephen Gostkowski - NE 2. Steven Hauschka - SEA 3. Connor Barth - DEN 4. Mason Crosby - GB 5. Dan Bailey - DAL 6. Graham Gano - CAR 7. Shaun Suisham - PIT 8. Adam Vinatieri - IND 9. Mike Nugent - CAR 10. Justin Tucker - BAL 11. Chandler Catanzaro - ARI 12. Matt Prater - DET d/st1. Seattle 2. New England 3. Green Bay 4. Denver 5. Carolina 6. Dallas 7. Indianapolis 8. Pittsburgh 9. Cincinnati 10. Arizona 11. Baltimore 12. Detroit a few more strategy thoughts1. Your first two picks should be key players from teams that you think will make the Super Bowl. Wilson/Lynch if you like Seattle. Brady/Gronk if you like New England. Manning/Anderson/Thomas/Sanders if you like Denver. Rodgers/Lacy/Nelson/Cobb if you like Green Bay. Romo/Murray/Dez if you like Dallas. Think of these as "bets" on the team. 2. Err on the side of spending early picks on players with a first round bye because wild card weekend production can come cheaply later in your draft, with the exception of the Cowboys, who seem to have the best first-round matchup and chance to make it to championship week. Players like Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, Joique Bell, and Jonathan Stewart will be cheaper than you think to get some points at running back out of the gate. Wide receiver is very deep 3. Ideally, you want to end up your draft with two or three Super Bowl combinations that are likely to give you the win because you would have the most players playing in the big game. 4. In the mid rounds, go one of two directions - either try to "corner" the market on a favorite by doubling up on defense and kicker or secondary position players, or hedge one of your key players with players from the team you think will make the Super Bowl if your heavily invested player(s) get stopped short. If you miss out on Wilson/Lynch early and take Rodgers/Lacy instead, try to snag Baldwin and the SEA in the mid rounds. Blount and LaFell are great Patriot value picks in the mid-rounds. Terrance Williams and Jason Witten can give you a strong Cowboys share without even spending one of your first five picks. As soon you commit to players in the first 2-3 rounds to be your cornerstones, your mid-round target list should immediately come into focus. 5. Wait at tight end if you don't get Gronkowski. The next five options are pretty close, and reasonable choices like the Packers duo, potential Seahawks/Patriots touchdown scorers, and cheap wild card production are available after that. More from Sigmund Bloom:
  8. I think Benjamin is a slight bump up. Here is why......... From Football Guys: Notice both games were wins. Week 1, 20-14 win over Tampa Bay QB Derek Anderson, Pass: 24 - 34 - 230 - 2 TD / 0 INT, Rush: 3 - 10 - 0 Informed on Saturday evening that he would be getting the start in place of the injured Cam Newton, Derek Anderson looked unflappable in his first professional start since 2010. Anderson looked totally at ease in the offense, executing it true to its conception. He masterfully carried out play fakes and bootlegs and consistently found his targets early on as he established a rhythm. While there were a few missed opportunities, most notably a missed touchdown pass to Greg Olsen down the seam when he overthrew him by a few inches, Anderson was getting the ball out accurately and on time. He showed no fear throwing into traffic, often fitting the football between defenders to find his intended target. Anderson did a lot of damage off play action, consistently finding favorite target Greg Olsen uncovered against the Bucsí predominantly Tampa-2 looks. His first touchdown toss, a play action pass to Olsen, turned out to be an easy pitch and catch in the red zone as the Bucs failed to pick up Olsen in the back of the end zone. Anderson trusted his targets to make clutch catches for him throughout, and none was more impressive ñ or risky ñ than the touchdown pass to rookie Kelvin Benjamin. With time in the pocket thanks to the great protection he was continually afforded, Anderson spotted a streaking Benjamin down the left sideline. Anderson heaved a pass up for his receiver to snag, and Benjamin did the rest, producing a ridiculous catch by securing the football behind the defender's back, subsequently wrestling it away. Anderson almost made a critical error to erase that inspirational play in the fourth quarter. With Carolina up 17-7, Anderson threw an ill-advised pass left under duress; it hit the hands of the waiting defender, but he couldnít make the interception. Had he caught it, it would have been a pick six beyond doubt. Anderson, however, steadied the ship and thanks to an assist from the Carolina defense, managed to close out the game. In a poised display from the veteran, it was the only blotch on his day. WR Kelvin Benjamin, Rec: 6 - 92 - 1 (8 targets) Towering talent Kelvin Benjamin kept his foot on the gas in his first professional start after showing significant strides in the preseason. Against a Tampa Bay secondary that often pressed him at the line, Benjamin remained poised and looked like a veteran as he used a subtle arm-bar to achieve separation over the middle. Benjamin proved a clutch target for Derek Anderson in the short to intermediate range of the field on dig patterns and crossers, outmuscling linebackers and cornerbacks with his sheer size and power. While the chemistry wasn't quite there on the deeper patterns ñ Anderson missed Benjamin on a nine route, throwing it too far inside and short ñ the two showed good rapport elsewhere. Benjamin had to make adjustments to a couple of low passes in traffic, but showed poise and excellent body control to reel them in. Benjamin's crowning glory was his touchdown, a ridiculous one-handed grab around a defensive back's torso on a 50-50 ball into the end zone. Anderson spotted the rookie in single coverage and heaved a pass to the left pylon at the front end of the end zone. Benjamin secured the football with the defender's back turned and wrestled it away. Benjamin certainly did not look like a wet-behind-the-ears rookie in his debut. This is week 2, 24-7 win over Detroit Lions, and Cam Newton is back under center. WR Kelvin Benjamin, Rec: 2 - 46 - 0 (8 targets) Kelvin Benjamin came back to earth a little against the Lions after a stellar opening salvo in Tampa last week. The rookie receiver had a few concentration lapses throughout, dropping well-placed passes. Benjamin almost came down with a touchdown in the first half as Newton targeted him on a fade in the back of the end zone on third and goal; however, he ran out of real estate and could only get one foot down despite making a terrific grab of the football at its highest point. To the rookie"s credit, he did not let his drops get to him, producing one of the prettiest catches of the young season. Newton lofted it up to Benjamin, who was able to kill the ball"s momentum with his left hand and secure it against his body, toe-tapping his feet as he fell out of bounds. It was beautiful coordination by the six-foot-five receiver and came directly after a drop. Benjamin, who was known for drops in college, will need to build chemistry with his quarterback to eliminate the mistakes, but the emphasis on getting him the football in key situations is clearly there for this offense.
  9. Nice run, but terrible time to fumble, as it is time to win and prepare for playoffs. Yes, winning get's you to the playoffs, but it's high time for Andrew to lead this team to get a "sniff". And fumbles, lead to early exits from the playoffs. Let's hope, we don't see another one.
  10. "Aside from concerning fumbles"..... there is no "Aside" from concerning fumbles. Fumble the rock, and we will find a nice cold spot on the bench for you, maybe you can help on kickoff coverage.
  11. "Jerick McKinnon (back) did not practice Wednesday. The Vikings are likely getting him some extended rest. McKinnon should be fine for Sunday's game against the Packers. Nov 19 - 4:27 PM" from Rotoworld Well let's see, if McKinnon isn't as healthy as everyone thinks, and Asiata is in concussion protocol, it might be possible that a healthy (although disgruntled) RB like Tate with a chip on his shoulder, just might be a good play this weekend.
  12. Riding Roethlisberger to first place, and beyond. Now in first by one touchdown.
  13. "Inactive for the Panthers are LT Byron Bell, RG Trai Turner, RB Fozzy Whittaker, OG Amini Silatolu, slot CB Bene Benwikere, WR Philly Brown and S Thomas DeCoud. UDFA David Foucault is getting the start on Cam Newton's blindside." From Rotoworld Oct. 30 7:02pm ET
  14. Counting on Kelvin going 7/165/2...... yahoooooo
  15. Are you going to run this again? You do a great job, with a nice format. Swamp