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siffoin

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About siffoin

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  1. I think Trump is more like a 75 mile wide asteroid who has entered near earth orbit. And the concern is not only impact but the devastation afterwards- long after he's gone.
  2. As I mentioned a few days ago I would take some time on your behalf. Here it goes: Let me get this out of the way - so people can take these comments with the grain of salt that they should. First of all I did not graduate from Wharton. But for the past 16 years, I have managed a private fund for a small group of investors. I have a graduate degree in Performance Psychology and prior to running this fund I worked as a sport psychologist in private practice as well as a consultant to a number of Club, University and National Teams. As far as the fund goes, I have as much skin in the game (percentage-wise) as any of the investors. I am very much risk-averse, but also am willing to take thought-thru large bets that might seem risky to others. I’m bullish when the market is bullish and bearish when the market is bearish. And (hopefully) observant enough to recognize the difference. The fund has evolved over the past 16 years. With the investors, it is an open-door approach. And I take all ideas. We want to think critically about every investment decision we make. The goal is to understand the risk as well as the opportunity. We strike when we feel the technicals align with our opinion so that the probability of a successful trade/investment are on our side. We are far too small to have any influence on any position taken. I like it that way. There have been plenty of home runs and strike-outs along the way. I am far from perfect. Personally, I really like how we are structured right now, and it’s much less stressful than the days when I mostly day-traded futures/options. Because of the way this fund is structured - I have an incentive to make money for my investors. If they don’t turn a profit - I don’t get paid. There have been some years, I lived off savings - and still came into work and worked just as hard as when I made good $. And that’s all I have to say about that. The Bogleheads Approach your are applying to your investment strategy on the surface is quite simply genius. Take a few funds and diversify your entire portfolio. Simple and Genus! And for a long time it was just that. Let’s look at the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio. It is the simplest of them, and compares similarly over time to the others (ie you’re results in any Boglehead portfolio will be similar). It is comprised of three funds allocated as follows: VTSMX (Total Stock Mkt) - 50% VGTSX (Total Intl Mkt) - 30% VBMFX (Total Bond) - 20% If we back-test the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio (from 1998-2007 and compare it the the Benchmark $SP500 Fund (Vanguard 500), we get the following results: Bogleheads CAGR = 7.46% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.83% A ~2% difference in the CAGR is not insignificant - hell even 1% makes a huge difference over your investing lifetime. Bogleheads KILLED IT over that 10 year time span! Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to: Bogleheads = $100k -> $205,420 Vanguard 500= $100k -> $176,249 Again - Bogleheads KILLED IT! During that 10 years span the Vanguard 500 was up 7 years and down 3 years. But what’s amazing is that no matter if the market was up or down, the Bogleheads outperformed the Vanguard 500 EVERY SINGLE YEAR! We can look at the performance here: Bogleheads Performance 1998-2007 Of course 2008 and 2009 weren’t great times. But logically we should expect the Bogleheads to once again shine over the past 10 years (2010-Present). Especially considering it has been the strongest Bull Market in US history. A Bull you likely will never see again. So how did the Bogleheads Portfolio do? Not so great. From 2010-Present: Bogleheads CAGR = 8.61% Vanguard 500 = 12.91% A 4%+ CAGR under-performance over a 10 year time span is massively significant. Like the difference between retiring when you are 60 vs 68. The result is stunning poor. Re-Investing Dividends over that period a $100k portfolio would have grown to: Bogleheads = $100k -> $220,706 Vanguard 500= $100k -> $321,757 This is like a 30% difference. Over that 10 year time span the benchmark Vanguard 500 has been down only 1 year (2018). The Bogleheads has been down 3 years. Perhaps even worse- all 10 years the Bogleheads performed worse than the Vanguard 500. Now if this happened (under-performing the benchmark) 1 or 2 times over a 10 year period, I’d ignore it completely. If it happened 3 years in a row...I’d be concerned. 10 years in a row, I’d be ####ting my pants - especially considering this is likely to be the strongest longest Bull Market of our lifetimes (THIS IS MISSED OPPORTUNITY THAT YOU WILL NEVER GET BACK). We can see the performance here: Bogleheads 2010-July 2019 Now how about the last few years since Trump has been running the show (for the record, I’m not a big believer in giving credit or blame to the President for stock market performance - but HE DOES, Trump supporters do). From 2017 - Present Bogleheads CAGR = 9.85% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 13.78% Bogleheads $100k -> $127,473 Vanguard 500 $100k -> $139,580 The 30% difference in CAGR remains similar here to the 10 year span - THIS SUCKS! Performance can be seen here: Bogleheads 2017-July 2019 Over the past 18 months the performance is worse (of course I’m cherry picking for effect but 18 months to someone 20 years from retirement is 15% of that time - any 18 month period should not be ignored - the clock is ticking.): Bogleheads CAGR = 1.78% Vanguard 500 CAGR = 5.6% The 1.78% is like a kick in the balls because what it really means is that you have been losing in regard to inflation over the past year and a half (Most of Trump’s term). Performance can be seen here: Bogleheads Feb 2018 - July 2019 PERFORMANCE MATTERS!!!!!!!!!!! That’s why I’m shocked that you’re a “HAVE YOU SEEN YOUR 401K LATELY” kind of guy. Here we’ve got the best economy in US History; Unemployment at generational lows; the tailwinds of the largest tax cut in US History; The Fed now cutting interest rates; The stock market near all time highs. And you are not only under-performing - but by a significant amount. Dude - I can tell you - if this were me there would be a lot of hard questions being thrown my way and for good reason. In addition what happens if we’re at the tail-end of this bull market run? What happens if the returns over the next 10 years or 20 years are closer to the last 18 months? Feel free to use Portfolio Visualizer to examine in more detail. And what you will come to see is that ALL of the common diversified portfolio strategies have under-performed for 10 years. Shouldn’t we be asking the hard question why? I would also say: if you can’t beat the SP500 (Vanguard 500)...why not just invest in the SP500? Not only is the Lazy Investor Strategy not working well - I think we all need to be concerned moving into the future. I’m not talking about a simple recession either (it’s really the very least of our long term worries). Rather how to prepare for not just the potential of a single black swan event but a flock of them and the dominoes that befall the global economy and stock markets when they hit. It’s likely coming. That’s not to say one must panic out right now...rather be open to recognizing all potential scenarios and having a plan for them. If this...when this...then that. Many causes for concern are long term fundamental issues that have been ignored for years/decades. Trump is not the sole blame. However, what I do see is that in many areas we have defined as potential black swan events, Trump’s “leadership”, I believe, is accelerating their probability both in terms of time and likelihood of occurring. I’m not a gradualist - rather lean towards punctuated equilibrium and believe we are very close to a time of very rapid change for humanity. In our lifetimes! You should be maximizing the opportunity - preparing for a storm and if it never arrives - what have you lost? We frequent a sports oriented message board. I think all of us should be well-versed in what we’d want in a successful organization. Key to successful performance should include a focus on fundamentals, technicals, and preparing for all scenarios. We all have a fiduciary responsibility to manage our investments. We are, in effect, the coach of our financial decisions. “Lazy” should not be part of the mission strategy. I’m pretty confident you will ignore what I’ve written here. And that’s ok by me. But perhaps someone will find it useful and apply many lessons I’ve learned the hard way. Good luck because the time is coming you're going to need it, and that time might be sooner than you believe.
  3. Give me a little time and I'll do some work for you. Believe it or not - I'm on your side.
  4. I honestly don't understand what you seem to be boasting about. By your own admission, you've under-performed for a decade.
  5. Opps. I'm dumb. Sorry Tim. "Shame...Shame...Shame on Siffoin."
  6. Of all the issues we having facing the future of our country (and the world in general)... In addition: regarding Trumps leadership style, selection of people into key roles of government/ supreme court etc; Trumps ethics regarding the office of the President; Trumps rhetoric in whipping up the radical right 4 more years to who know what violent ends; more trade wars and stupid tweets...- you're going to put all that aside because you believe that the single most important issue determining your vote is some minor pre-primary floating of ideas of healthcare for illegal immigrants and that's why you'll vote Trump for a second time? You should be stripped naked and forced to walk down the Mall in Washington DC while we all yell "Shame...Shame...Shame."
  7. I'm with you Sand. I'd go so far as to say - anytime you buy or sell a stock, etf, mutual fund etc...you are essentially trying to time the market. I'm not sure why "market timing" is such a bad word either. It's smart. With careful observation, I believe anyone is able to time the market too. Market timing doesn't mean catching the exact top or bottom either. It's being observant to the trend and catching the meat of the move. Sometimes the market is bullish. Sometimes the market is bearish. I have no loyalty to either rather lean to the winning side. I'll say one truth. At the top of a bull market - no strategy looks better than buy and hold. But at the bottom of a bear market...not so much. I've learned a lot from weathering a few bear market storms. Go Birds it seems like you haven't - and I understand why you believe you can't time the market... I also know if you hold onto this belief it will get will get you battered in the next big storm. God speed.
  8. Good lord. Ok let me clear a few things up. #1) I'm THE jerk. Always have been always will be. Invite me to your house for some shrimp cocktail and I'm eating all the shrimp. #2) All of you guys I'm sure are extremely generous. I never said you weren't. All of the places you donate $ to are grateful for that generosity and I appreciate you doing so too. #3) My issue is this. Back in June - after the "biggest monthly SPY gain in 30 years" (not taking into consideration the May drop but whatever). All of the Trumpers here were peacocking about how they had made a small fortune because of Trump. (A small fortune to me is somewhere between 6-8 figures for others it might be more it might be less). There was also talk about how Trump was going to use his Art of the Deal Jedi Mind Tricks to totally pwn Jinping at the early July trade talks. That's where the bet came from -ie: could Trump make the deal that would send the SPY to infinity and beyond. It was a friendly bet for a charity for kids - $25...not a game changer for anyone here -much less people who have been making a small fortune. The Trump supporting consensus was "It's a bad bet.". OF COURSE IT WAS A BAD BET. It was a bet in fun and jest and kids with cancer were the winners It pissed me off in the same way as if I sent my little girl over to sell girl scout cookies to them and they say "Bad deal kid, I can get knock-off Samoas at the grocery store for half price." We frequent a fantasy football message board where the name of the game is bad bets. It just seemed so Trumpian of them - ie stingy and arrogant for absolutely no reason. 4) I don't know why anyone cares about my take on the market anyways. There lots of people in here way way better than me. Folks who have a better instinct for buying the lows and selling the highs. I'm human. I make a lot of mistakes. And I make them all the time. 5) In the past, I've really tried to consider a successful outcome in relation to any thoughts I have regarding the market. I actually care about your success and want everyone to succeed. And don't post without a lot of forethought. The whole vibe here now seems different, and I just don't have the desire to navigate the consideration I had before - especially as I see the potential market moves ahead and the commitment needed to regard the successful outcome to anyone who reads/values my thoughts. 6) Did I mention I'm the jerk - 7) Oh yea - I'm going to post. And if people are going to post BS Trumpian falsehoods about the market- I'll do my best to keep those lies in check.
  9. Is what it is. My opinion is that political discussions are fun and thought provoking. I've never been much of a political person until 2018, and while a true independent, I probably leaned Republican in my voting record. I'm grateful that Trump brought me to my political Jesus. You and I should be able to disagree but still have a beer together. That's my take but I don't believe it goes both ways. You guys bragging about how flush with cash you are from Trumps market yet not willing to donate to a FBG's charity for Kids with Cancer really struck me as Trump over everything. Right or wrong, I feel like I've always been generous with my market thoughts, but this made me realize that generosity here isn't a 2 way street. And I realized it's not worth my effort to provide thoughts on the market anymore. Like I said- it is what it is. I'm relieved personally.
  10. Well trust me when I say - there's no more technical insight from me about the stock market. Those days are gone.
  11. Dude: Wake the #### up and rub the sleep out of your eyes. The Chinese have been playing a 50 year Kung Fu Rope-A-Dope with the sole goal of becoming the #1 global superpower. This is an inevitability, but being gifted Tax Cut, Spend and Bomb Republicans only accelerated their plans. And the buffoon Trump is a cherry on top. One year of pain isn't going to sway them at all. That's not to say China doesn't have problems - they do. But culturally they are better at keeping their eyes on the prize, while we unfortunately have sold our National soul for cheap trinkets that we now define as "freedom" along with the attitude of Varuca Salt - and Trump is the living example of her to a tee. In 50 years there's going to be a saying people recite all over the world to describe the end of an empire. It will go something like this: 特朗普使用twitter,而美国烧毁 Translation: Trump used twitter while the United States burned down. Trumps "victory" is going to ring hollow because things like the Chinese market are never coming back to US farmers in the way they were a year ago. 2019 is to US farmers as 1977 was to Youngstown Ohio. When it comes to a national food supply a country needs dependability and the one thing Trump has proven the world over is dependable is something he's not.
  12. Why in the Wide Wide World of Sports would the Chinese make a deal with him - allowing him to secure the election only to pull even worser shenanigans after the election? Unless you're saying he's going to capitulate 110%.
  13. Ted Cruz' father shot him.
  14. Nampa and Caldwell are NOT Boise. If you want to live inside the Boise bubble (the Boise they show on magazines as the Best Place to Live), you're going to have to pay up for that. Depending on where you are coming from it may or may not seem affordable. A few years ago we used to joke "$300k is the new $200k"; then it became $400k is the new $300k. Now it seems those affordable houses that were once in the $200's a few years ago are $450k and up. If you want to live in the North or East End (THE spots to be)...that's going to cost you. A quick look on Trulia shows 7 places in the 83702 zip code listed under $300k. Those are basically 1 bedroom condos at under 1000 sq feet. In the 83712 zip code there is NOTHING under $300k. Getzlaf, will know better than me, but I guessing $450k in the North or East end will get you a 2-3 bedroom on a tiny lot that's livable but will really need $50-100k+ in remodels. Here's an example (note: sq footage in Boise includes basement footage which I call BS on but everyone does it so when it says 1500 sq feet, what it really means is 750 sq feet above ground and 750 below - and in a 80 year old house - even remodeled can smell a bit musty. In addition - it deflates the price per sq foot imo. ) Boise North End Example People who think they are moving here buying the ponderosa for $250k and biking to hip brew pubs and walking from their from porch to a hiking trail will instead find themselves in Nampa or Caldwell and dealing with traffic (yes - not a bad as LA but there's a lot more traffic than you think there is). Boise is great. We love it here. But we live inside the bubble and the entrance fee ain't cheap. In some ways I think they've done a good job in planing the future of the city. In other ways, it's full on developer greed.