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Anarchy99 last won the day on February 29 2016

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  1. I guess it depends on the make up of a team. Bradley has been first team all defense, can average 15 PPG, and is a decent shooter. He’s had season with 4 or 5 win shares. Smart has had big moments in big games, but that serves to cover his poor shooting and limited offensive skill set. He earned 1.9 win shares last year. Smart has more versatility both offensively and defensively. Whether his offense (for now) negates that is debatable.
  2. The only teams with cap space remaining are the Kings and Hawks . . . and the Hawks are at like $8.5 million. I have no idea who has exceptions available or for how much. Maybe there was a suitor out there, but there are not many teams that could have been in the running to sign Smart to an offer sheet. The C's must have figured that they could have gotten Smart to play for $6 million this year but likely would have lost him next year with teams having more cap space available. So they decided they would rather have him around for 4 years (or would at least have a contract on the books as a salary match if they wanted to try to get someone else in).
  3. So who would you rather have. Smart for 4/52 or Bradley for 2/25?
  4. Who were they bidding against? It's not going to kill them, but I don't think they needed to go that high as there were no other legit suitors.
  5. Certainly people can have varying opinions. Yes, Toronto earned the #1 seed last season, and in theory they got better by adding Kawhi if the guy from a couple years ago is the guy they are actually getting. But the Celtics are adding Kyrie and Hayward to a team was five minutes away from the NBA Finals and got huge contributions in the post season from Tatum, Brown, and Rozier. We'll see how the talking heads look at things. Off the top, I think many analysts would still put BOS at the top of the East, PHI is still improving, IND got better, and MIL still has the Greek Freak. That's about it though, so there are basically 5 teams that are noteworthy in the East (no offense to fans of other teams).
  6. Boston is in a weird situation. They don't really have any disposable contracts to be able to move or a way to free up cap space. Big Al is older and somewhat overpaid, but it will be hard to get a team to take on the last year of his contract next year ($30 million for a 33 year old that is better served as a piece and not a max contract guy). Who knows what Hayward will bring post injury and how he will fit. If he is not the same, the Celts wouldn't be able to move him (not saying they would want to). There is the current Smart situation and the kids to worry about, who in a couple years will want max money or way more money. And if the Kings don't do anything this year, BOS could end up with another lottery pick. Oh, and they will have to give Kyrie a max deal next year if they have hopes of keeping him. Bottom line, there is a huge tax bill coming in the near future. If Kyrie doesn't stick around, that only will get BOS to around $17.5 million under the salary cap . . . not enough to get a top guy as a free agent. It will be interesting to see who they can afford, who they let go, and who they might go after.
  7. Well, the C's have only $8.6M to play with before they have to get a visit from the tax man. I think they still want to bring back Larkin as well. Not sure how they could finagle staying below the line. Maybe they don't care about the tax, but they are already over the cap number for next season when you include Kyrie opting in to his option year at $21 million (which is never going to happen unless he has a major injury, and maybe not then). They are on the hook for $63 million between Big Al and Hayward next year. They only have $19 million in space left to get under the tax number for NEXT season.
  8. Their whole methodology is pretty complicated. From my limited knowledge and understanding, they come up with a number for each player based on offense and defense. Then they adjust it based on what position they play. The first numbers are based off of historical data both from the player directly and historical norms based on age. Then they came up with the number of minutes they see each player actually being on the court to come up with an adjusted, weighted number. They really don't love Gordon Hayward, as they don't see him returning to form or playing a huge amount of minutes. He was at +7.3 the past two seasons. Now they only have him at +2.2. That's five wins different. Maybe they know more than the rest of us, but if he is healthy and plays, I don't see someone like Smart being worth more than Hayward and being the 7th most valuable Celtics player. Overall, I find it an interesting thing to review but personally I am not sold on some of their conclusions. Here's everyone they have worth 6+ wins. Russell Westbrook - 12.4 James Harden - 11.8 LeBron James - 11.5 Giannis Antetokounmpo - 9.8 Stephen Curry - 9.6 Chris Paul - 9.1 Ben Simmons - 8.8 Nikola Jokic - 8.3 Jimmy Butler - 8.3 Anthony Davis - 8.2 Damian Lillard - 8.1 Victor Oladipo - 7.7 Karl-Anthony Towns - 7.6 Kyle Lowry - 7.5 Draymond Green - 7 Otto Porter Jr. - 7 Kevin Durant - 6.8 Jayson Tatum - 6.5 Kemba Walker - 6.3 Paul George - 6.2 DeMarcus Cousins - 6.0 Not sure in what universe Otto Porter is worth more than Kevin Durant . . .
  9. If the Lakers wouldn't offer those guys to the Spurs, why would they offer them to the Raptors if they feel they can pick up Kawhi next year without parting with any assets?
  10. For those that take stock and have faith in both wins above replacement and 538's predictive modeling, here's how they have things shaping up in the East for the upcoming season. If you want more insight on how they came up with their numbers, projections, and methodologies, go read up on their site. So don't shoot the messenger . . . WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT BY PLAYER: RAPTORS: Lowry +7.5 Leonard +5.6 Anunoby +2.9 VanVleet +2.7 Wright +2.5 Green +1.5 Siakam +1.4 Nogueira +1.4 Valanciunas +1.1 Ibaka +0.6 Miles +0.3 Powell -0.2 Richardson -0.1 TEAM TOTAL: +27.2 CELTICS: Tatum +6.5 Irving +5.3 Horford +3.5 Smart +3.3 Brown +2.6 Rozier +2.5 Hayward +2.2 Theis +0.7 Yabusele +0.3 Morris +0.1 Larkin +0.1 Williams 0 Baynes -0.3 Nader -0.7 Ojeyle -1.6 TEAM TOTAL: +24.5 SIXERS: Simmons +8.8 Covington +5.2 Embid +4.8 Saric +2.2 Johnson +1.4 Redick +1.0 Holmes +0.5 McConnell +0.3 Chandler 0 Fultz 0 Anderson 0 Smith 0 Luwawu -0.2 Shamet -0.3 Bayless -0.5 TEAM TOTAL: +23.2
  11. Caught some of the discussion on the radio about players that have left the Pats within the past two years. What they have commanded elsewhere is staggering. Guys that left after 2016 or later: Jimmy G. - 5 years, $137.5M CJones - 5 years, $82.5M Cooks - 5 years, $80M Solder - 4 years, $62M Butler - 5 years, $61M Collins - 4 years, $50M Ryan - 3 years, $30M Sheard 3 years, $25.5M Lewis - 4 years, $20M Amendola 2 years, $12M Mingo - 3 years, $9.3M Marsh - 2 years, $7.7M Bademosi - 2 years, $6.25M Long - 2 years, $4.5M Garcia - 4 years - $3.3M Blount - 2 years, $3.25M Fleming - 1 year, $2.5M Floyd - 1 year, $1.4MM AJohnson - 2 years, $1.3M Freeny - 1 year, $880K Collectively, these players signed or got extended elsewhere for a combined $600M. (Yes, I am aware that they may never collect all that, but I was too lasy to calculate the guaranteed money from all those contracts.). The last 10 players on the list add up to only $40 million. The first 10 guys on the list add up to a whopping $560 million!
  12. They didn't get PG, but they got LeBron. Not sure anyone should be crying about who the Lakers didn't get. They will have ample cap space next year to sign another star. Maybe it's Kawhi, maybe it's someone else. Still doesn't change that there is a lot of intrigue and mystery over which Leonard shows up to the North Land and how committed he will be to being one of the elite players in the league.
  13. I gave my perspective on this a couple pages ago when Leonard’s jersey still said Spurs. All that’s changed is now it says Raptors. Yes, Toronto is covered if Leonard doesn’t report, refuses to play, or fakes an injury that would keep him out for an extended period. But I don’t think they can do anything if he acts out, doesn’t hustle, is not engaged, and otherwise is a PITA. He could come up lame with nagging injuries. An ankle, a knee, a back strain, whatever. He could opt to not go 100%. At this point Kawhi is a bit of a wildcard. No one really knows what he will do. Maybe he plays like a Top 3 player. Maybe he plays like a Top 100 player. Maybe he becomes a giant distraction and a cancer in the locker room. We just don’t know. And there is also a high probability he bolts after next year. Maybe it works out for the Raptors, but there is a lot of risk involved.
  14. It depends which Kawhi they get. The one that was great a few years ago. The one that seemingly was hurt last year. Or the one that has been acting like a diva trying to shoot his way out of town. He doesn't want to go to Toronto and only wants to go to LA still (at least for now), so if he doesn't really buy in and pouts all year, he could act up just like he did in SA. I don't know where people slot DeRozan in the player rankings. Maybe Top 20? Sure, if the Raptors get the Top3-5 version of Kawhi then it's an upgrade. If they get a lukewarm disinterested one, it may not be that big of an upgrade.