gonzobill5

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About gonzobill5

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    Footballguy
  1. Exactly Its the same as during the season. You need to try to plan ahead. Julio has been banged up, if you are worried you should have had Douglas already, same goes for Lacy and Starcks or any other injuryIs this an argument for or against? And I don't plan ahead by rostering one players backup. Douglas wouldn't help me if Hilton or Watkins got hurt.
  2. For me, waivers are a necessary part of ff because they keep teams interested/competitive. Not to mention, they are needed to get through the bye weeks. But I sort of hate them because they can swing the competitive balance as a result of things that are basically unpredictable. It makes sense to me to lock them at playoff time to try to mitigate that.
  3. Surprised that just about every league allows them to continue. Mine shuts them down (with a kicker exception) at the start of the playoffs and I just figured it was typical. How much depth you'll need is a decision you have to make. It may be a stupid question - but how does it work leaving them open? Is it only for teams still in contention? I'm in a two week playoff right now for the championship, and I'm likely without Julio. If waivers were running, Douglas would be available. Would it just be me & my opponent bidding against each other for him? Because neither of us have blind bid $$ left so its a coin flip. So if I lose Julio AND my opponent lands Douglas (a better play than his current flex) on waivers that's REALLY ####ty.
  4. Funny - I view it the exact opposite. This is a weird dynamic. Stud RBs get drafted early, even when they are rookies, and thus are constantly getting thrown back in to the early rounds of the draft. On the other hand, when a late round RB emerges as a keeper it's often fool's gold because the shelf life of an NFL running back is short and they are highly susceptible to injury. You can do it either way - horde RBs as keepers and focus your early picks on stud WRs or keep non-RBs and draft running backs in each of the first three rounds. My preference is dependent on what kind of return on investment I can get on a keeper running back - people often overpay.
  5. Another thing I've learned to do is to not worry about depth. Say your wr's postdraft were: Julio, Hilton, Harvin, Adams, Bailey. You probably didn't draft Adams or Bailey with the expectation that they would be startable at the onset, and didn't care because you hoped to never have to start them anyway. Who cares that you don't have a startable WR4. If starters got hurt and one of the young guys didn't emerge, you can easily move these guys (who have tons of keeper value because of draft position) for a plug and play.
  6. This is something I've been wondering about since my keeper league started this year and our 1st draft after keepers is next year. There's gotta be something out there. The draft dominator iPad app allows you to plug in keepers. I go through the rankings and increase the rankings of players based on age to account for people reaching for younger players. It takes forever, but it is worth the effort because you gain a huge advantage over league mates who can't mock.
  7. It is great to see some keeper discussion around here. I posted this awhile ago, and tried to update it a bit. Strategy #1: All keepers are declining assets, treat them as such. FF Players have a habit of looking at a player they like and assuming the best case scenario and pencil in 10-20% improvements per year for some number of years. Players get hurt, injured, change teams, have down years, all sorts of things that cannot be anticipated and destroy keepers value. When you factor in the keeper formula my league uses (two rounds ahead), you realize you should cash in on a top keeper whenever possible. Of the 36 keepers in our league from 2013, only 5 were kept into 2014 (Cobb, Morris, Cameron, Vereen, Woodhead). Of those, I can't say confidently that any will be kept again in 2015 (depends on where Cobb ends up). Picks that looked fantastic a year ago have lost their sizzle. While others I didn't mention actually still present some value, I believe owners will move on to the next hot commodity since we are forced to choose 3. Strategy #2: There is a tendency to look toward next year too soon, avoid it. This might be specific to my league where poaching players for picks is common. My main goal is to always be competitive in the year we are in, while keeping an eye on the next. Rebuilding is for dynasty leagues. If your team looks like it has a few warts, deal a player with more keeper value in n+1 for a player with more actual value in year n. Or sell some middling draft pick for an underperforming player with a juicy schedule from a team that is looking toward next year. Get to the playoffs, from there anything can happen. Strategy #3: You can accumulate value by trading up in the draft if your league mates use a pick calculator to determine fair trades. I can't feel too guilty when someone approaches me with a trade offer of the 8th overall pick for the 20th overall + the 60th. Sure, the pick calculator says its a good deal for them but in actuality you need to adjust for the keepers whose ADP is higher than the picks in question. Actually I do feel guilty for doing this - why does it seem the rest of my league doesn't get this? Strategy #4: A 12th round draft pick is more or less equivalent to an 18th round draft pick. I'd have a hard time trading a 12 for an 18. But if I needed to throw in a 12 to close a deal knowing that I'd be down one pick and get an 18th added on the backend I'd do it in a heartbeat. Your pretty unlikely to hit on a worthwhile player in either round, but if you hit on the 18th rounder the keeper value is through the roof. Strategy #5: Draft the rookies no one else wants. Watkins went in the 4th/5th, Beckham went in the 12th/13th. Sankey went in the early 4th, Mason in the 17th. I know its hindsight, but the point is, if you overpay for a guy with keeper value, there is a good chance he no longer has keeper value.
  8. Buy Low Nick Foles: I think some were spooked by the first half and not impressed with the flukiness of the TD to Maclin. Losing Mathis hurts a ton and the line could be shaky at least until Lane gets back. But ultimately let's remember it was week 1 and he was out of sync...he'll settle down and make smarter decisions going forward. That offense is too dynamic not to keeping racking up the FPs. Montee Ball: Not sure you'll get any sellers but its worth asking. The low ypc might give you a chance. TY Hilton: Double digit targets is all I really want to hear. Toby Gerhart: Most were hoping for a good game against a bad philly d (but the eagles rush d is actually pretty solid) and instead he comes away with an injury on a nasty looking play. If you can get him cheap its worth the risk. Sell High Patterson: Fun to watch, but I think he'll be horribly inconsistent in ppr leagues until he becomes a more complete receiver. There will definitely be takers. Maclin: I'm still concerned with his ability to stay healthy and his consistency on an offense that spreads the ball around...he put up 19 points or so in ppr and 16 of those were on a busted coverage, but the stat line looks pretty. See what you can get.
  9. I'm in, thought It was a crazy idea at first...then saw dodds projections.
  10. 1. The torch gets passed as young QBs Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, and Foles (and Rodgers) bump Manning and Brees out of the top 5. 2. Everyone clamors for Maclin, Ertz, and Matthews while Cooper & Sproles lead the Iggles in yards and receptions respectively. 3. The vaunted NFC West defenses prove to be way overrated. 4. Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne and Roddy White remind us that wide receivers age differently as they finish with more receptions than their younger counterparts Patterson, Hilton, and Julio. 5. Spiller & Bush stay healthy and finish top 8 in ppr.
  11. I hadn't thought of it in those terms, but now I do see the connection. I was thinking about how it relates to how & when people begin to deviate from consensus rankings. For example, my 4th round (ppr) team would be: QB: Luck RB: Vereen, Gerhart, Sankey, Chris Johnson, Mathews WR: Harvin, Andre Johnson, Cruz, Fitz, Roddy TE: Cameron That's a team I think would contend for a title. It has upside at every position and would have better depth at RB & WR than any team in the league (remember, no other team would have a 4th round pick which means every other team would have a deficiency at RB2 or WR2 or both if they took a TE/QB in the first few rounds). But what is more interesting is that those players have consensus ranking between 37 and 56. While I made these picks using my personal rankings, I didn't even consider a player ranked beyond round 5 of consensus rankings. In other words, it looks exactly like the other round 4 teams posted here. Meanwhile, this would be my 6th round team: QB: Foles RB: Gore, MJD, Moreno, SJax, Khiry Robinson WR: Colston, Hilton, Wright, Torrey Smith, Tavon Austin TE: Witten These players have consensus rankings between 61 and 114 which means I "reached" as far as round 10 on some players. This is the point at which my rankings finally diverge from consensus.
  12. For the record, the pick value calculator says you should do it for the 5th round, no matter what slot you were originally drafting from. I agree that it would be dicey but I think it would be a gamble that could pay off big time if you hit on a few.
  13. I planned to do another poll asking how many consecutive picks (starting with your 1st) you would trade for the first 3 picks in the draft.
  14. Let's assume 12 teams, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE.
  15. I'm curious as to what others think on this one. I'll post my answer as well as what the pick value calculator says after a few responses.