gonzobill5

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About gonzobill5

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    Footballguy
  1. Exactly Its the same as during the season. You need to try to plan ahead. Julio has been banged up, if you are worried you should have had Douglas already, same goes for Lacy and Starcks or any other injuryIs this an argument for or against? And I don't plan ahead by rostering one players backup. Douglas wouldn't help me if Hilton or Watkins got hurt.
  2. For me, waivers are a necessary part of ff because they keep teams interested/competitive. Not to mention, they are needed to get through the bye weeks. But I sort of hate them because they can swing the competitive balance as a result of things that are basically unpredictable. It makes sense to me to lock them at playoff time to try to mitigate that.
  3. Surprised that just about every league allows them to continue. Mine shuts them down (with a kicker exception) at the start of the playoffs and I just figured it was typical. How much depth you'll need is a decision you have to make. It may be a stupid question - but how does it work leaving them open? Is it only for teams still in contention? I'm in a two week playoff right now for the championship, and I'm likely without Julio. If waivers were running, Douglas would be available. Would it just be me & my opponent bidding against each other for him? Because neither of us have blind bid $$ left so its a coin flip. So if I lose Julio AND my opponent lands Douglas (a better play than his current flex) on waivers that's REALLY ####ty.
  4. Funny - I view it the exact opposite. This is a weird dynamic. Stud RBs get drafted early, even when they are rookies, and thus are constantly getting thrown back in to the early rounds of the draft. On the other hand, when a late round RB emerges as a keeper it's often fool's gold because the shelf life of an NFL running back is short and they are highly susceptible to injury. You can do it either way - horde RBs as keepers and focus your early picks on stud WRs or keep non-RBs and draft running backs in each of the first three rounds. My preference is dependent on what kind of return on investment I can get on a keeper running back - people often overpay.
  5. Another thing I've learned to do is to not worry about depth. Say your wr's postdraft were: Julio, Hilton, Harvin, Adams, Bailey. You probably didn't draft Adams or Bailey with the expectation that they would be startable at the onset, and didn't care because you hoped to never have to start them anyway. Who cares that you don't have a startable WR4. If starters got hurt and one of the young guys didn't emerge, you can easily move these guys (who have tons of keeper value because of draft position) for a plug and play.
  6. This is something I've been wondering about since my keeper league started this year and our 1st draft after keepers is next year. There's gotta be something out there. The draft dominator iPad app allows you to plug in keepers. I go through the rankings and increase the rankings of players based on age to account for people reaching for younger players. It takes forever, but it is worth the effort because you gain a huge advantage over league mates who can't mock.
  7. It is great to see some keeper discussion around here. I posted this awhile ago, and tried to update it a bit. Strategy #1: All keepers are declining assets, treat them as such. FF Players have a habit of looking at a player they like and assuming the best case scenario and pencil in 10-20% improvements per year for some number of years. Players get hurt, injured, change teams, have down years, all sorts of things that cannot be anticipated and destroy keepers value. When you factor in the keeper formula my league uses (two rounds ahead), you realize you should cash in on a top keeper whenever possible. Of the 36 keepers in our league from 2013, only 5 were kept into 2014 (Cobb, Morris, Cameron, Vereen, Woodhead). Of those, I can't say confidently that any will be kept again in 2015 (depends on where Cobb ends up). Picks that looked fantastic a year ago have lost their sizzle. While others I didn't mention actually still present some value, I believe owners will move on to the next hot commodity since we are forced to choose 3. Strategy #2: There is a tendency to look toward next year too soon, avoid it. This might be specific to my league where poaching players for picks is common. My main goal is to always be competitive in the year we are in, while keeping an eye on the next. Rebuilding is for dynasty leagues. If your team looks like it has a few warts, deal a player with more keeper value in n+1 for a player with more actual value in year n. Or sell some middling draft pick for an underperforming player with a juicy schedule from a team that is looking toward next year. Get to the playoffs, from there anything can happen. Strategy #3: You can accumulate value by trading up in the draft if your league mates use a pick calculator to determine fair trades. I can't feel too guilty when someone approaches me with a trade offer of the 8th overall pick for the 20th overall + the 60th. Sure, the pick calculator says its a good deal for them but in actuality you need to adjust for the keepers whose ADP is higher than the picks in question. Actually I do feel guilty for doing this - why does it seem the rest of my league doesn't get this? Strategy #4: A 12th round draft pick is more or less equivalent to an 18th round draft pick. I'd have a hard time trading a 12 for an 18. But if I needed to throw in a 12 to close a deal knowing that I'd be down one pick and get an 18th added on the backend I'd do it in a heartbeat. Your pretty unlikely to hit on a worthwhile player in either round, but if you hit on the 18th rounder the keeper value is through the roof. Strategy #5: Draft the rookies no one else wants. Watkins went in the 4th/5th, Beckham went in the 12th/13th. Sankey went in the early 4th, Mason in the 17th. I know its hindsight, but the point is, if you overpay for a guy with keeper value, there is a good chance he no longer has keeper value.
  8. 1. The torch gets passed as young QBs Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, and Foles (and Rodgers) bump Manning and Brees out of the top 5. 2. Everyone clamors for Maclin, Ertz, and Matthews while Cooper & Sproles lead the Iggles in yards and receptions respectively. 3. The vaunted NFC West defenses prove to be way overrated. 4. Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne and Roddy White remind us that wide receivers age differently as they finish with more receptions than their younger counterparts Patterson, Hilton, and Julio. 5. Spiller & Bush stay healthy and finish top 8 in ppr.
  9. This was my problem and why I'm dubious of going any more than about 75/25 this route.What did you lose? Fat, muscle?If you exercise, you will build lean muscle and the protein in the diet will aid in recovery and rebuilding of muscle.I lost mostly fat, I assume. I didn't have much muscle to begin with. When I tried paleo over the summer, I was running about 20 miles per week, but lifting weights only sporadically. I'm not currently running, but have been lifting weights 4 times per week. I'm thinking of trying Paleo again without the running and monitoring my calories. If I can keep my weight or even better, gain some more muscle I'll start to cycle the running back in. Another question - I recently started drinking a protein shake (one of those whey powders mixed with milk) after workouts. I figure I should keep doing this since its loaded with calories. Is it essential for me to use soy instead if I go back to Paleo or can I just stick with milk? Is there a better option?Stay far far away from Soy in all forms. Try Coconut Milk. You can find it next to the soy and almond milks.I ended up buying some Almond milk. Is coconut milk preferred for any reason?
  10. This was my problem and why I'm dubious of going any more than about 75/25 this route.What did you lose? Fat, muscle?If you exercise, you will build lean muscle and the protein in the diet will aid in recovery and rebuilding of muscle.I lost mostly fat, I assume. I didn't have much muscle to begin with. When I tried paleo over the summer, I was running about 20 miles per week, but lifting weights only sporadically. I'm not currently running, but have been lifting weights 4 times per week. I'm thinking of trying Paleo again without the running and monitoring my calories. If I can keep my weight or even better, gain some more muscle I'll start to cycle the running back in. Another question - I recently started drinking a protein shake (one of those whey powders mixed with milk) after workouts. I figure I should keep doing this since its loaded with calories. Is it essential for me to use soy instead if I go back to Paleo or can I just stick with milk? Is there a better option?
  11. Sorry if this was discussed already, but is it possible to gain weight on a paleo diet? I tried it out last summer and dropped from 165 pounds into the 145 range. I felt great on the diet but worried about the weight loss. I started lifting weights and eating like I did before and I'm back above 160, though a lot stronger and leaner. Is there any way to get the benefits of paleo without the weight loss?
  12. I get to pick between SJax, Taiwan Jones, Dwyer, or Shane Vereen. Leaning toward Vereen at the moment.
  13. I went back to look how Ryan did with Julio last year. Julio missed part of week 5, all of week 6, 7, 11. Meanwhile, Ryan sat out the second half of week 17. In the 11 games last season where Julio and Ryan both played a full slate, Matt Ryan's numbers project to 33 TDs 12 INTs and 4650 yards. While these numbers would have put him ahead of Romo and Manning last year (would move him from QB8 to QB6), they are pretty much in line with what a lot of people are projecting for Ryan this year. Then I realized that the 5 games that were removed were: GB (32), Carolina (24), @Detroit (22), Tenn (14), TB (21). Every single one of these games was a mediocre to downright bad pass defense each allowing over 225 ypg AND every single one of these games was played in a dome. I would have expected Ryan to perform well even without his stud WR. Ryan's numbers against these teams project to 26 TDs 16 INTs 3500 Yards. I counted week 17 as half a game here. I think this speaks volumes about how good Julio Jones is, and how much Matt Ryan's success this year is tied to him. So, to answer the question - I'm sold on Matt Ryan just as long as Julio Jones is his WR. I think he warrants a draft pick in round 5, and presents value in 6 or 7. However, draft a solid back up, because if Jones gets injured Ryan becomes a mediocre fantasy QB, even against a subpar defense.
  14. Yes, Moore is correct. I think I would have figured David Boston, but I was shocked to see Moore's name next to his. Here is another fun fact: If Julio Jones were to keep his ypr and catch percentage, but swap targets with Roddy White, he would have had 2035 yards last year. This, in my opinion, illustrates the major limiting factor - it is seemingly impossible to maintain a high ypr as your receptions go beyond 6 per game.