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About BobbyLayne

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  • Birthday 08/26/1962

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    Jabber? SRSLY? But no IG

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  1. weird article about ex-employees being funded by TSLAQ fyi - on Twitter #TSLAQ is a popular hashtag used by shorts/bears, $TSLA is the corresponding code for longs/bears. Follow the accounts of TESLAQ and you’ll discover they have a block list of almost 3K accounts (mostly fan bois) because they don’t want to see any good news about TSLA. They even wrote a script - one-click & you’ll never see another positive tweet about Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Solar City, sustainability.... The TESLAQ community includes several reporters, hedge fund managers, analysts, et al, who have calling the demise and ultimate bankruptcy of TSLA for years. I think both sides have no shortage of tin foil hats.
  2. Def the closest thing to Baba Ruth in the leather helmet era. Was a great DB & the placekicker. Retired his last three years in a row but then decided to play anyway (& you thought Favre was tiresome lol.)
  3. @atrupar Profiles in Courage from Mike Pence on racist chants at the president's rally: "If it happens again, he, he might, he might -- he -- make an effort to speak out about it."
  4. Last 5 yrs WR ranks: 1-1-3-2-2 (was also WR8 in his breakout year, 2013) ETA: wonder if the site I pulled that from is 0.5PPR. In our full PPR he went 3-1-1-1-2-5 over the last six seasons.
  5. Inductive reasoning takes specific information and makes a broad generalization that is considered probable, allowing for the fact that the conclusion may not be accurate. This type of reasoning usually involves a pattern or rule being established based on a series of repeated experiences. This was the type of argument I was presenting. Not just TE; no position has ever seen the same player achieve four straight years of being #1 in FF. Jerry Rice, who dominated his position more than any player ever, was WR1 three straight years twice - but never four times. A Straw Man is a logical fallacy which oversimplifies an opponent's viewpoint and then attacks that hollow argument. This is what you used this morning. It’s pretty weak sauce because you’re not actually presenting any counter argument or alternative explanation. Kelce may end up being TE1 once again, but past performance is no a guarante of future results. It should not surprise anyone if it doesn’t happen because, again, not because it’s rare, but because it hasn’t happened in a century of league history. Maybe 2019 will be the exception that proves the rule.
  6. Tony Gonzales had consecutive seasons of dominance over the TE5 - over 100 in 2003, and 95 in 2004. Gates never came close, and Gronk accomplished it exactly once, his 17-TD rookie season of 2011. Kelce has been the TE1 three times in a row, which matches Gonzales longest streak (2002-04), exceeds Gates (2005-06 were his only years as the TE1), and matches Gronk's career total (2014-15 consecutively.) We consider it a foregone conclusion Kelce is about to embark on the fourth year of his TE1 reign, and while there is no evidence to the contrary, it's also never happened in the previous 99 NFL seasons. To be fair, TEs have only been a thing for roughly the last 60 years. Should we bank a first rounder on something unprecedented happening this year? I think I'll go a different route.
  7. Hi. We’re discussing Travis Kelce and related TE drafting strategy. There’s a TE who plays for the Chargers who has an ECR of TE5/6 with an ADP of roughly 60.
  8. WR is the one spot on the wire that is always there for me. The others not so much. I'm drafting 10th this year and find I'm never happy with mocks when I grab Kelce at either 1.10 or (more commonly) 2.03. It's an an old dilemma going back 15+ years when - in theory - Gates gave you a significant advantage over every other team. Can't tell you how many mediocre teams I've seen that spent a first or second rounder on Gronk. The problem is it reverberates through your entire draft. Your end up with one other stud - RB1 or WR1 - and a relatively weak RB2 or WR2. Then as you advance into the middle rounds your WR2/WR3 and RB2/RB3 is noticeably weaker than the other astute teams, often a full Tier or two down. Especially this season, I feel like a much sounder strategy is to take the BPA through 4-5 rounds and then grab Howard, Engram or Henry at the 5/6 turn. I am much more comfortable with those three than the next grouping (in any order: Cook, Ebron, Njoku.) My objective through four rounds is to mitigate risk. From the 5th round on, I'm much more inclined to reach a round early for guys I like. Drafts are a fluid thing and as you mock over the next six weeks you should experiment with different strategies. Try taking Kelce and see how it looks. Grab an early QB like Luck or Watson in the 4th if they fall a bit. Try going WR/WR or RB/RB, often, just so you have a good sense of how that will play out. I never start out thinking, for instance, "I'm going zero RB this year", but I'm fully prepared to do so if I get to the 15th pick and people have slid Mixon and Chubb and/or Cook + Williams into the Top 14. By the same token, I'm not really a RB-RB-RB kinda guy (it's full PPR, 4-pt passing TD) but I can make it work if the rest of the league goes WR heavy. But I know my league pretty well, we've been together 25 years, and can look at the board and predict how most of a round is going to progress. Which is why I love being on the ends, I have a pretty good feel for the opportunity cost of my even round picks, when I'll be waiting for 18 players to come off the board before the odd-numbered round comes back to me.
  9. I have no memory of watching this. Which is weird because I remember events from 1967 and 1968 (born in '62.) I do remember watching Apollo launches in school but without looking it up couldn't say which mission it was. I also don't remember Apollo 13 (but do remember race riots, MLK, RFK and Mai Lai.)
  10. Lowry blew a 4 shot lead at the US Open three years ago. Hoping he closes this one out. Amazing round today.
  11. He was #1 in our format (bonus for plays over 40 & TDs over 40 - he had 8 & 4 - plus 0.04 for return yards.) I have right behind the target hogs (Hopkins, Adams & Julio), grouped with Thomas and OBJ. But at 1.10 / 1.15 it's not insane to think he'll be there because 8-9 RBs will come off the board before my first pick, and probably 11-12 before my second rounder.
  12. And still broke 50! Just noticed he he goes off in a few minutes. If he can bogey the par 5 7th he might break 85 today. Any over/under sidebets on him at Ladbrokes?
  13. one of my all-time favorite plays Defining moment of the Bears (11-1-2) 1963 Championship team. With less than two minutes left, Ditka catches a short pass and sheds a half dozen tacklers for a 65 yard gain. Set up the tying FG, and they won the regular season conference title by a 1/2 game over the Packers. He was a bit before my time, but his chapter in this book made a deep impression on on 8 y.o. BL; the opener was a vivid description of the that 65 yard catch and run.
  14. His early season schedule is gorgeous Generally been targeting Ryan/Wentz but they’re usually gone by the time I have loaded up 7 RBs/WRs + a Tier 2 TE (usually OJ or Engram in the 6th.) Goff as a 9th rounder seems like great value, I usually pair him with Cousin/Jimmy or a young cheat code running QB (Jackson or Trubisky.) Stafford is gonna be on a lot of waiver wires on Labor. Coming off a bad year, should run the ball a lot out of two TE sets, one security blanket traded and the other night get cut.