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n20

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  1. ... and Larry Johnson was a 1st rounder (27th overall).
  2. To me there are two types of QB's out there: 1. QB's who need strong weapons around him in order to put up pro bowl type numbers2. QB's who put up monster numbers regardless of talent around them or who make their mediocre surrounding talent betterI'd say that Schaub seems to be more like type 1 and that it's too early to tell if Bradford is type 1 or 2 yet but he's shown that he's capable of being type 2.
  3. That stuff might be pretty big, but it's also not a variable dependent on the lockout. If a guy is going to be a free agent in his next season, that's true whether the next season is in 2011 or 2012. If a guy is in the last season of an inflated contract, that's true whether that last season falls in 2011 or 2012. Neither of those situations would make a player's value different in the "lockout" scenario than it would be in the "non-lockout" scenario. The only thing that is not constant between the "lockout" and "no lockout" scenarios is a player's age. Well, that, and the size of the rookie class they're competing against, but that doesn't have any impact on a player's rankings vs. his peers, because all of his peers are also competing against that larger rookie class. A rising tide lifts all ships and all that jazz.I actually thought that just doing an N+1 set of rankings was a pretty elegant solution to a very messy question. Not necessarily, some of this years UFAs became RFAs like VJax and Austin (pre contract extension); that scenario still isn't clear. There's a chance (no idea what %) that the CBA forces RFAs repeat their RFA year. VJax, for example, might still be property of SD as an RFA if the CBA is structured that way.
  4. LMAO! I like the plan but I think you'd meed more than just n+1 of the player's age. I know lack of a CBA makes it virtually impossible but tracking when a player will be an UFA or if their team might cut them in the final year of an inflated contract is pretty big. I don't know, just thinking out loud. Too difficult? What do you guys think?
  5. Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.Sorry, I should have mentioned Seattle and Washington as the obvious starting points. I'll throw a few out there:Cincy Cleveland Tampa Bay Buffalo Jax Carolina I doubt AJ looks at the AFC West for a deal but... anything could happen, I guess. The thing I think that makes a VJax trade possible is that the market was set by Marshall. There's enough similarities that I think two 2nd rounders is the range teams will start with. And if I was another NFL GM, think I'd be a lot less concerned about DUI's than Marshall's past (Not to start that argument again). A bunch of teams could use him. If I was AJ, nothing more I'd like to do than send him to Buffalo. Carolina? Love the fit for both teams. A 2nd stud WR to take the pressure off Moore/Smith. Make so much sense that you know it won't happen. Ha! So true. Although, if I'm Hurney or Fox I make trades involving future picks for studs all day because I may not be around in a year.
  6. Well, the article mentioned Seattle and Washington, so let's start there. As someone who paid a pretty high price for the guy right before he decided to hold out, I would be disappointed with either destination, though Washington would be OK in the short term. I'd rather this just get worked out with the Chargers, even if this season has to be a waste.Sorry, I should have mentioned Seattle and Washington as the obvious starting points. I'll throw a few out there:Cincy Cleveland Tampa Bay Buffalo Jax Carolina I doubt AJ looks at the AFC West for a deal but... anything could happen, I guess.
  7. Looks like VJax is on the table. Anyone want to speculate on which teams would make good trading partners? Link
  8. Very informative. Thx.Agreed, and sorry to hear that man. That's brutal.Thanks, man. It's been a long road but it could be much worse... I'll be fine in the long run. My wife gets serious props for having to deal with that crap haha.Interesting thought on VJax only holding out as long as his suspension, F&L. I guess I always assumed that the suspension would have to be X number of games and that his holdout would = X + ?. As an owner, I'm hoping you're right
  9. They were looking mostly at old players and 10+ year old surgery. Most RBs decline rapidly under normal conditions around age 30.Valid question. I tried searching for information concerning RB's and achilles tendon injuries the other night, but I gave up after about 15 minutes. Maybe one of the stats guys can chime in? They seem to know all the good websites, and if anyone knows of a website that has historical data for NFL injuries, I'd love to have it. PM me if you don't want to post it publicly... please.I can't think of any running backs, but do remember linebacker Jamir Miller had his career ended by a achilles tear. He was coming off the best season of his career and week 1 of the following preseason his career was over at age 28.Having torn BOTH Achilles Tendons, (right one in November of 2006, left one in November of 2008) I can tell you that the amount of rehab and physical therapy involved just to get back to 90% is tremendous. Not all tears are the same, either. The Achilles is shaped like a V so it can snap at the bottom (usually relatively simple but still terrible) or it can shred closer to the top of the V which is terrible because the entire tendon has to be re-enforced not just where it snapped. I've had one of each and the later is absolutely brutal in comparison to the former. Players that I can remember having an Achilles tear and not being the same are Ronald Curry (tore one, came back and tore the other), LaVar Arrington (never the same) and Brandon Stokley. Stokley is still going but was cut by the Colts after tearing it even though he was successful there. Long story short, I wouldn't touch an RB recovering from an Achilles tear. Even with top physical trainers and rehabbing as a full time job the odds of the player regaining 100% of their burst (not top speed) is unlikely. If the RB is young enough (like 20 years old) maybe it was a freak injury but I would still shy away.
  10. The problem with that is the Chiefs drafted possibly the best return specialist available (Javier Arenas) in the round after McCluster. I don't think you'll see much return value there, and my guess is he doesn't receive more than 2-3 carries per game. So you're basically drafting a slot receiver.I think Pioli knows saw the mismatches that were caused by Welker and is basically looking for a lightning rod inside to mimic that success. I'm not sure if it'll pan out but... it's a decent strategy.
  11. Solid trade and I like your end of the deal. You can find a new Edelman and Meachem with new WR's coming into the league and VJax is a big upgrade from Boldin in my mind.
  12. I think it might be the time. I love Jackson... I've had him on one dynasty team since the Rams drafted him. His contract is up on that team, and I traded his rights.I am a very firm believer that all RBs get hurt and predicting who will get hurt is mostly folly, but Jackson's style is very punishing, for the defender and for him. He is coming off a 15 games-played season, so the injury-prone label should have died down some. I'm not thrilled with the disc issue, I don't like my RBs having back issues. Over time the nicks and bruises build up for workhorse power RBs. I like Jackson to be good for 1-2 more years before the injuries start to rob him of his physical gifts. I think it is more likely that he is facing at least one more frustrating season an a rebuilding team, however. I still like him as a low-end RB1 with elite potential, I just wonder what the odds are that the Rams can pull things together soon enough for Jackson to achieve that potential again before Jackson's window closes.If you can get proper value, it may be the time to trade him. Only a BIG season will bring his value up, and any injury will cause his value to plummet. Basically, if trading him substantively hurts your chances to compete for a title, ride Jackson into the ground. Otherwise shop him and get a good deal. Don't give him away, though, he is still a strong fantasy RB, a rare workhorse in what seems to be a committee era.I traded SJax for Stewart, taking the upside of Stewie for the age and physical style of SJax. I think he's a sell, sadly. The Rams just aren't getting any better and by the time they do SJax will be 30.
  13. n20

    Love your stuff! Thanks for all the analysis

  14. I wouldn't offer that and I'd take his Stewart for your Britt without hesitation. Britt is a very nice prospect but how is he different from a top WR prospect from this years class (in terms of potential)? My point is that I think the cost to replace Britt is much less than the cost to replace Stewart. Is the other owner worried that DeAngelo isn't going anywhere?
  15. What are people's thoughts on McCoy with Mike Bell in tow? Any real change in value? I still think he's a decent bet to finish with top 20 RB numbers, maybe top 15 PPR. Thoughts?