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travdogg

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  1. I mean they wouldn't be wrong. Zeke must have shown up to his interview with Goodell, and sat down and told Roger to go F himself or something. As for Hill, I think its unrealistic to expect numbers on par with what he did last year, the Chiefs offense will come down(it has to) and that is much more likely to come out of Hill than it is from Kelce or even Watkins, as teams will likely sell out more to stop him from getting deep. The Chargers did that late in the year, and both the Colts and Patriots did that on the playoffs. Of course, those teams are all well coached, and have quality players, so it won't work for everyone, but I'd bet on Hill being closer to his 2017 than his 2018. That is still a WR1 though, but I think he's more in line with guys like Mike Evans or even Keenan Allen(in PPR) than he is with Hopkins or Adams. That might still be a fine pick. Watkins is almost a lock to be gone after this year, and Hill is no lock to be there in 2020, and seemingly will always be an off field risk. Hardman's floor is probably the #3 option in the best passing game in the league after 2019, with upside for more. If people were expecting Hardman to be a difference maker in 2019, than they were kidding themselves to begin with, but I still don't see him as all that different than guys like Campbell or Samuel.
  2. I'd disagree with that. Yes, he technically finished as a low-end RB1, but that is only because he played 16 games. He was really more of an RB2, and a TD dependent one at that. I'm not sure last year is his floor, I could certainly see fewer than 10 TD's this year, especially if Kyler Murray takes a lot of rushing scores which is certainly on the table. The o-line is still bad, and there is no reason to suspect his receiving to get back to 2016 levels, or even be better than last season. Murray is always looking downfield, and Kingsbury never had a RB do much in the passing game. I think there is a much better case for Johnson outside the top-10 than in the top-5.
  3. I'd also take the Johnson side, but wide margin is pushing it. That is a 27 and 29 year old RB combo. Ingram is possibly(probably) worthless 2 years from now, and Johnson is likely less valuable than Cook by 2021. The short term value works in that teams favor though, but its a 55-45 deal to me. I'd say the Beckham/Gordon side, by a pretty big margin. Maybe I have way too high of expectations for Beckham with a good QB, but I'd want Mixon+Diggs just for him, and Gordon easily beats Kirk, and might be the 2nd best guy in the deal anyway. So Breida was free basically. You made the right call. Its possible Ridley is a better WR than Golladay, but unless Atlanta does some house cleaning, its unlikely to show up anytime soon.
  4. When he got in the lineup the last 2 weeks, Brian Hill seemed like a much better runner than Ito Smith. He and Ollison both have the size that Freeman and Smith don't as well, so its a fluid situation. I think there is a decent chance that if Freeman can't stay healthy, that Atlanta has a worthless running game, because in addition to the players being less effective, they'll also split more.
  5. I agree Barkley is more important than a kicker, that isn't what I was saying. I was saying the advantage of having a great RB over a replacement level one, is smaller than at any non-kicker position. The Giants would likely be a better team right now, if they had chosen any of Darnold, Ward, or Chubb(the next 3 picks) over him. They only gained 2 wins, and that was more from Beckham being healthy(playing in 9 more games than he did in 2017) than Barkley. Elliott is an overrated RB in my opinion, elite fantasy RB, but he's been in an almost perfect situation his entire career. I also believe they erred drafting him at 4 in 2016, and would be a better team today(and since 2016) if they had taken Jalen Ramsey(the next pick) instead. That said, obviously he's a key cog in that offense, but even then, Dak, Cooper, Smith, Martin, and Frederick, are all more important in my opinion. I also think the Eagles made a mistake drafting Sanders so highly. I liked the Howard trade, but that isn't what I'd call a big investment. A 2nd rounder is, especially when what was their biggest weakness last year was their pass coverage, and they did nothing about it. There were plenty of quality CB's and S's, like Adderley, Thornhill, Layne, and Long that likely would have been more helpful. The Chargers went 4-0 without Gordon, I don't think that was a fluke. Alfred Morris and Rod Smith combined for a higher YPC than Zeke in 2017, and the Cowboys were pretty much a .500 team either way, not counting a 6-0 win in week 17 over the Eagles backups. The only game the Rams lost after Gurley started missing time with his knee, was the Super Bowl. The Cardinals went from a .500 team to the #1 pick in the draft, despite getting David Johnson back, though I have actual questions if he's really a good RB, or Arians just used him to perfection, ala Shanahan with Freeman in Atlanta. I don't see Ekeler as much of a downgrade from Gordon. He's been every bit as good the last 2 seasons, and while there is a legit concern he'd wear down with a bigger workload, its also possible Rivers and the passing game would be more effective with Ekeler seeing more snaps. That even if the run game was less effective, the offense wouldn't be, and the record wouldn't be any different.
  6. I'd disagree with that. RB is easily the least valuable non kicking position in football. The Rams offense didn't fall apart without Gurley at all, they missed Kupp much more than Gurley. The Saints had losing seasons because they had a bottom 5 defense, now they don't. The Cowboys made the playoffs, because Cooper added a receiving threat, and the defense took a major step forward, with a healthy Jaylon Smith, and a ROY candidate in Vander Esch. None of those RB's move the needle enough to even make a 2-win difference. Its the same reason that Saquon Barkley might already be the best RB in the NFL, and was likely a bad draft pick, because RB's aren't an individually important position. They are very reliant on blocking, defensive alignment, and scheme. More so than any other position. Its an extreme take I realize, but if I were an NFL GM, I'd probably never draft a RB before day 3, and it would be mostly a focus on backs who are mismatches in the passing game, and would never sign a RB to a 2nd contract unless it was a very team friendly deal. On the flip side, teams grossly undervalue CB depth. I'd argue the 4th CB is as important as the starting RB. There likely wouldn't be a draft that went by, where I didn't take a CB in the first 3 rounds. Just like teams shouldn't invest heavily in nose tackles, or run blocking OL, or blocking TE's, or box safeties, or LB's who can't cover. These are more luxuries in today's NFL than things that actually make major differences, and should be roles filled by day 3 picks, and journeyman type vets. I think we all learned at an early age that the keys to winning were running, and stopping the run. But that simply isn't the case all in 2019. Its not even a 25-25-25-25 split for pass, run, pass d, run d. Its more like pass and pass d are each 40%, and run, and run d, are each 10%. There used to be things known as 2-down RB's, 2-down DL, 2 down LB's, and they would come off the field in passing situations. That doesn't really exist anymore, teams spend roughly 65% of the game in 3-WR/Nickel defenses. To the point that the starting lineup should be those sets. All of this, is a long way of saying that the Chargers shouldn't give Gordon any more money, or a long term deal. I'd argue he might be overpaid at the moment, and I think Gordon is a good RB, right there with Gurley or Zeke. Dallas also shouldn't spend on Zeke, and both the Rams and Cardinals erred signing Gurley and Johnson respectively.
  7. I pretty much consider the Panther TE's to be throw ins, but I'd pay that price for Gurley. I still think people are overreacting with him. Frankly, I'm much more worried about Guice, both short and long term.
  8. Its a fair deal. I'd rather be on the Green side, but I'm pretty bullish on the Bengals offense this year. I think people are really underestimating how different a non Marvin Lewis coached team will look.
  9. Hardman is interesting to me. Its still entirely possible he's the #1 WR in 2020. Watkins likely won't be back at his salary unless he really plays well, and stays healthy this year, and Hill has both off field, and contract question marks. Truthfully, his value remains about the same to me. 1.8 still sounds fair to me, just due to his ceiling with Mahomes. I don't really see him as very different from Campbell or Samuel.
  10. I'm personally worried forever about Hill. Even if he gets cleared of this, he's likely one strike from being finished. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic or conservative, but I'd prefer Godwin straight up, let alone for almost 1/6th the price. Fair enough. I probably prefer Lockett in a vacuum, but if you needed a RB, and had loads at WR, its not a bad deal.
  11. I'd go as high as 1.5 for Rodgers. He's had some disappointing seasons, but could still have a #1 finish in him. I'd probably go late 2nd round for Roethlisberger. He's losing the best WR he's ever had(I'd argue the best WR in Steelers history) and has flirted with retirement. He's not really a guy I'm very interested in. If I wanted a vet QB who I could maybe get for a 2nd rounder, I'd look at Matt Ryan.
  12. I don't think Bernard, Burkhead, or Ajayi, are better than Ekeler. All of them also have trouble staying healthy as well. Maybe my head is in the sand, but I think the Charger think very highly of Ekeler, and that is why, whether they saw this coming or not, they are highly unlikely to make any panic moves. In the 3 games Ekeler started last season, he got 17, 18, and 17 touches, that would come out to 277 over the course of the season, which is probably slightly on the high side, but 250 is doable. I see no reason they couldn't go with Ekeler, Jackson and Newsome, and have the cheapest RB core in the league. Then spend their FA money next year on Rivers, Henry, and maybe extending Bosa a year early.
  13. 100% agree with the bolded. Teams that could have interest are Houston, Miami, and Tampa Bay. Tampa actually makes a world of sense, as Gordon feels like he'd be a guy Arians would love, and he's not likely to be on a 5-year plan in his late 60's. Houston fancies themselves a contender, and Lamar Miller is in a contract year(highly unlikely to be brought back) and Foreman is a major question mark. Miami would be more from a butts in the seat perspective, and a take pressure off a young QB, Rosen this year, and maybe someone else next. Maybe Buffalo, though that would need to be followed by likely 2 of McCoy, Gore, and Yeldon being cut.
  14. I agree its better to have Gordon than not have Gordon, but I like Ekeler a lot more than you do it seems. I think he's capable of being a 250 touch(say 175 carries and 75 catches) guy. I disagree that Jackson looked better. He played better in the Steelers game, although almost all his work came in the 2nd half, but Ekeler firmly outplayed him in the other games Gordon missed, and was far more effective in the passing game.
  15. I believe you have to be on the roster for 6 games to accrue a season. At least that was the case for Vincent Jackson when he held out almost a decade ago.