How many deaths from covid-19 is in your best case scenarion? Last week I saw the 100-240K scenario. I saw one today in the WaPo with 60K by August 1.
"The IHME’s estimate of 60,000 deaths takes us only to August and excludes any potential deaths that might occur in the fall and winter if the virus continues to spread without effective treatments or a vaccine."
Even if the DOW gets to 90% of it's high, it seems very unlikely that unemployment will be at or below 5% by August 1. (or November 1st) Are we gonna end the "stay at home" edicts in most of the US May 1? Are we going to remove the travel bans? Open bars and restuarants? If we do, will people fly or go out to eat/drink at the same level as they did in February? Will they be able to afford to? IMO 60K dead people by 8/1 will outweigh the realistic economic best case for Trump's chances.