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About Arodin

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  1. Almost “AB for free.” I think everyone saying the other AB moves were the “biggest steals ever” will have to acknowledge the record has again been broken,
  2. Tis the season to divest of Antonio Brown, apparently. Not involved: Team A gives Antonio Brown Team B gives Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay
  3. Arodin

    BSTs 2019 IDP catch-all.

    Is that even legal? Sounds like a serious injury risk factor that would have me downgrading him significantly, Then again, maybe this will be the NFL’s answer to replacing the kickoff as a means of establishing ball possession! 😛
  4. Never underestimate the value of proximity to the perfect example of what not to do.
  5. Nothing to add on the actual numbers, but if you are looking at the arbitrary cutoff and a reason for the change in outcomes: Roll back from 2005 to 2002 and you have a non-arbitrary cutoff. That year the league expanded and went from three divisions to four. Maybe the restructured playoff allowed teams that dominated the new smaller divisions an easier road to the playoffs, winning them not only the high seed and bye, but a less taxing path to get there? Just a thought. Seems like something changed, looking for theories.
  6. Arodin

    Antonio Brown WR - PIT

    Arians did this right. The key no-no is “expressing interest” as in a desire to have the player on your team. Arians can praise AB all he wants to. Coaches are always telling us how great their upcoming opponent’s journeymen are. Arians can criticize AB’s behavior. What he can’t do is state or imply that he would like to have AB on his team.
  7. Arodin

    Death of football?

    Well, if nothing else a few years of vet minimum NFL salary should be enough to get him out of med. school debt-free. Have to think that could be the +EV he’s looking at. And he’s then banking full doc pay while his classmates are paying off their college loans. Not everyone who comes out of the league after a typically short career is broken. We just hear more about the ones that are.
  8. Arodin


    This, except I will wait till the combine and NFL draft. Someone will get built up in the combine hype and be overdrafted, creating a 1.1 narrative. Remembering how things stand now, I will happily trade down to anyone with 1.2 - 1.8 that falls for it.
  9. Arodin

    Nick Foles Landing Spot/Contract Size

    Maybe if you used examples that supported, rather than blatantly contradictng your point you wouldn’t find yourself in so many back-and-forths. ”Stats don’t always work! Here’s a case where they do!” is not really a good way of framing a point to avoid misunderstanding. Likewise, insulting someone for engaging with one of your points isn’t really productive. I never even stated an opinion on Foles: just stepped in to refute your “horrible argument.” 😜
  10. Arodin

    Nick Foles Landing Spot/Contract Size

    Top 5 passing yards this season: Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Ryan, Goff, Luck...other than maybe Ryan, I don’t recall these guys being “always behind” on their dominant, playoff bound teams. A little fact-checking goes a long way...
  11. Arodin

    Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

    I think this particular one has more to do with the defined value of having a known starter vs. the long term, riskier investment of guessing in advance which rb will have that chance. I don’t think the value spike has much of anything to do with a “fresh legs” bump, and everything to do with knowing the player will get a starter’s workload. For a better (purely hypothetical) measure, how much bounce do you think a first-tier handcuff back would get if the coach announced in preseason that that handcuff would become the starter in weeks 12-16? I think we might see a bump there relative to other handcuff backs, based on the fresh legs idea. I agree with this. But I still wonder whether the in-game rotation we inevitably see is in fact the optimum, or if rotating week by week or month by month would keep both backs much fresher than the typical commttee rotation does.
  12. Arodin

    Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

    I like this way of thinking. The late season surge is so common that it seems to have merit. Yet I always wonder, if this theory really is correct, why teams don’t carry a second rb on the roster specifically with the intent of switching them in 2/3 of the way through the season to profit from the “fresh legs effect.” The fact that we son’t see this, and instead see series-by-series committees when a team has backs of comparable skill suggests we might be missing something in this 20,000 foot analysis.
  13. Any chance this could give Leonard Williams the coveted DT designation? That’s the one potential bright spot I could see here.
  14. OFF: NO  DEF: KC Previously used: OFF: HOU, KC  DEF: CHI, LAR Now that my own score is non-negative I am kind of rooting for RND. Helps that I would love to see KC blow out NE.
  15. Arodin

    BSTs 2019 IDP catch-all.

    Your league doesn't award points for tackles? Now THAT is a "big play scoring system."