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About Arodin

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  1. Regrettably life has become too busy for me to commit to this at such a late date. I applaud David for running these and always enjoyed them. I will perhaps jump back in in 2021. OUT. Cheers!
  2. At 1 sack = 3-4 tackles it’s a little more balanced than sack-heavy. Gally gives solid advice (as usual)l but I wouldn’t discount potential tackle-monsters either. AJ Johnson is a guy I particularly like as a high-floor, good upside producer. I’d probably go for him and Z. Smith, following Gally’s logic.
  3. In this particular case, the “out of the blue” comes from the reality that vastly fewer cars on the road at rush hour means vastly lower rates of accidents and insurance claims, so they really have just gotten a windfall “out of the blue” on the cost side of their ledger. Good on the ones passing some of those windfall profits back to the not-drving-as-much clients.
  4. Are we sure Delpit is going to be a good fantasy DB though? I’m wary of rookie safeties making much impact, as the NFL tends to be moving them into hybrid slot-corner roles too much, and using older vets for in-the-box work. lsutigers could also just be reflecting the positional devaluation of DBs in general relative to other positions.
  5. Between Cole Holcomb and Sean Dion-Hamilton they may already have that young guy to tutor in house. Davis can still play well enough to see the field and definitely seems like a strong character-add to the locker room, and mentor to whatever youngsters will listen.
  6. This has potential. Especially if paired with a baseline score for not being targetted. I wonder how something like +0.1 per on-field snap -0.3 per target +1 per pass defensed +3 to 5 per INT would do at adding value to the elite coverage guys? Not in a place to run those numbers right now but may play around with it during my covid-19-induced downtime (now “working” from home).
  7. Top LB prospects usually start coming off in the early 2nd. This year is a little deeper in offensive players so maybe mid-2nd? A lot depends on situation. If he walks into a spot where he looks like he might be the next Kuechly (shutdown middle linebacker making plays all over the field) he likely works back into the early 2nd. If he goes somewhere with a lunatic DC who wants to play him as a gadget and make him the next Jabrill Peppers...mid 2nd still. Someone will bet on the talent once the top tiers of QB/RB/WR are gone. I’m sure he goes IDP1, and ahead of any TE.
  8. Strong recency bias in evidence, but otherwise not a bad list. And a fun offseason exercise.
  9. Landry Jones was a terrible QB in the reason to think he would suddenly become good in the XFL. If people tune into the XFL expecting NFL-quality football the product won't be around very long. If viewers accept that they are going to see lower-quality, "minor league" football, and enjoy it for what it is, it has a chance. Big question is: how much do viewers just want more football to watch, vs. how much they need it to be compellingly good.
  10. Don't rule out the XFL reaching a level of popularity consistent with the start of mainstream fantasy options for it. There may yet be room to discuss Rudolph's actual football career in here!
  11. This is the entirety of your post. The bolded is made without qualification, and the second paragraph is an assessment of the specific trade you were replying to. The third paragraph is sound strategy, but not relevant to the first paragraph. (It even undermines it to an extent, by suggesting that 1.12, which is almost a 2nd round pick, is worth less than a 1st next year. Not that next year’s pick would be worth less for being a year out.) Accordingly, it’s rather rude and insulting to double down with an accusation that people aren’t reading what you wrote, and implying we are all idiots compared to “other dynasty forums.” Please point me to what you wrote that indicates you didn’t really mean the bolded part above, because I guess I’m one of those isn’t at all obvious to me: By the way, the part about a 1st in 2020 being worth more than a future 1st is common sense, but irrelevant to the discussion of how much discounting to apply. My only contention is that the discount in value is far smaller than the drop to a second round pick. You make a lot of good posts and I like your insight on things, but you have a tendency to take cheap shots at people who disagree with you, and I’m disappointed to find myself on the receiving end today.
  12. The thing is, picks and players are fungible. If you say trading a player for a 2022 1st is the same as trading him for a 2021 2nd, I disagree. I would happily trade my 2021 2nd for a player I could flip into a 2022 1st and achieve the result I described (assuming most owners subscribe to the “one round per year” fallacy to facilitate the trades). Put differently, if I have two offers on the table for the same player - a 2021 2nd or a 2022 1st - I take the first every time.
  13. Not directed at you so much as a critique of this “rule of thumb.” In my opinion, the value of “random 1st” is usually so far ahead of the value of “random 2nd” that I would happily trade every 2nd round pick I ever own for 1sts the next year. After just a year of doing this, I start having two 1sts in perpetuity, which is strong trade value even if I don’t use them myself. I think the rule holds more reliably for mid-round picks, where the difference between “random 3rd” and “random 4th” is much lower. I love seeing this rule propogated though...the more people in my leagues who believe it, the faster I can stockpile draft capital. (And that’s not even mentioning how much easier it is to trade players for 2nds than 1sts. If I can then flip those 2nds for future 1sts...this is how people find themselves with 6 picks in the first round of a draft...)
  14. I was decidedly opposed to overtime, simply because we never thought to specify whether “KC 2nd half” for instance would or would not include it. We’ll need to pin that down going forward. Literally it doesn’t, and although super bowl squares use “final score” rather than “end of regulation” I think we shouldn’t. Otherwise we boost 2nd half offenses and hurt 2nd half defenses statistically just for the prospect of an overtime period.
  15. And that's a wrap! KC's 2nd half offensive explosion dooms ZWK, leaving myself atop the standings and Neil Beaufort Zod in 2nd, while Deamon slips into 3rd. Till next year! Arodin 72 Neil Beaufort Zod 65 Deamon 49 ZWK 46 Dr. Dan 35 -OZ- 35 TheWinz 30 Riffraff 30 QuizGuy66 26 kutta 23 Pip's Invitation 17 IHEARTFF -1 Dr. Octopus -3