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Everything posted by Arodin

  1. Playing the season could well lower his value, as others have referenced (year older, more mileage, injury risk). But sitting out for the season is likely to lower his value too (still a year older, year away from football, questions about commitment to game). I don’t see how a holdout ends in Bell earning more over the rest of his career than he earns without one. So I’m in the “holds out through camp and shows up week 1” camp.
  2. Lee is a tackle machine when he's on the field, and dealing him will leave you thin there. He's old enough and beat up enough that I love getting out from under him for another solid player like M. Ingram (who is no spring chicken himself, but doesn't have the same injury history). That said, while Ingram is an upgrade at your DE2, losing LB1 Lee leaves a hole. If I were to do this deal I'd be looking to follow up with something to acquire another starting LB. I'd probably do the deal but it's close. Edit: Also assuming Ingram is a DE. If he is an LB I pass.
  3. I was in 4 and blc. Definitely IN again, assuming you run them. Not married to being in 4...happy to be slotted into whichever one needs filling.
  4. By this logic, people should not be as high on Juju as they are...we should be downgrading him for the same uncertainty, no? Yet he still draws high 1st round value. People are overreacting to the age cliff, in my view. No reason why Brown cannot continue to generate good WR1 value for many years to come.
  5. Definitely IN if you do them, and I would hope you do. Easy to say from the side of someone who merely benefits from your hard work. If it would help you to farm off some of the league management elements, I am sure a lot of us (myself included) would be willing to help out.
  6. There is a decent chance neither Henry nor Goedert ever approach the value Kelce is producing at. Even without accounting for the roster consolidation the Kelce side offers. Even rebuilding, Kelce doesn’t seem old enough to warrant bailing on yet.
  7. Why are people actually surprised that a duct-taped old wreck like the Falcon has trouble stabilizing its return to normal space, compared to a top-trimmed warship which probably has an entire crew section whose sole job is normalizing hyperspace and realspace velocity vectors all day?
  8. There is a sense among football fans, justified or not, that yards are harder to come by in tight situations. On 2nd and 11 the offense has lots of options and space to operate, and a 9 yard catch might actually be considered a success by the defense in forcing a third down. Still worth nine yards in fantasy, but nothing more. The 3 yard catch that follows though, is worth three yards AND another three downs of offense. Think of the PPFD as rewarding the player for getting his offense those three new downs. It isn’t perfect, but I thnk it is no more imperfect than the systems we have already that reward the 1-yard run into the endzone more than the 50-yard reception that set it up. If you want to look for a universal way of “valuing” each play, maybe give fantasy points based on how the play shifted the team’s win %?
  9. I have actually. Typically by awarding points for completions minus penalties for incompletions, and by having substantial penalties for interceptions. Can't remember the exact specifics, but something like "1 pt per completion, -1 point per incompletion, 6 pts per TD, -4 pts per INT" really made a significant spread of value from QB1 to QB12, to the point that having an elite QB was a potential league-winner. It's something, in retrospect, I'd only want to do again in an auction format, but it definitely captured the sense that a franchise QB was one of the most important pieces your fantasy team could have.
  10. Those who want their FF to simulate the feel of a real football game aren't going to be aiming to balance things, and are going to be just fine with one position dominating the value early in the draft. Those who prefer to see FF as a game of its own, independent of the on-field game it is utilizing as a "game engine" are going to enjoy unusual rules sets that require analysis different from the groupthink standards. Which is probably why so many of the hardcore folks on this board in the offseason are pushing distinct scoring systems. The "game" of FF in many cases is finding the gaps in the "zone defense" of your league's scoring system and exploiting them for advantage.
  11. Yes. They don't play that up directly in the cartoon (maybe a little deep for younger audiences?). They show his fascination with art, but don't tie it in with his tactics explicitly. Though they do show him as a master strategist usually 1-3 steps ahead of his competition.
  12. I would say that “rookies” are generally overvalued, but the picks themselves are quite valuable. Like buying a new car that drops in value the moment you drive it off the lot, the value of a rookie draft pick diminishes as soon as you actually select a player. There is a lot of value to be had in stockpiling the picks themselves though, then flipping them for player+future picks to keep the stockpile up while adding proven veteran talent to the roster.
  13. The “money from selling new books” is almost certainly the right answer. But a more issue is that the old books are tied into lots of other canon and non-canon characters in ways that probably don’t fit with the new mythos they are building. It’s been a while since I read them, but stuff like Leia being a leader in the New Republic government and Luke having a wife and kids probably would be hard to shoehorn into the new (inferior) canon. To their credit though, Thrawn from Rebels and the new book remained more or less true to Zahn’s original creation. I was pleasantly surprised by that. (And am still amazed that the new allegedly feminist spin on the universe has been so resistant to bringing Mara Jade back into the canon...)
  14. The reason there used to be so few scoring systems is that there used to be far fewer sources of information, so we built our systems based on what we could find in a box score. (When I started this hobby, we literally looked at the newspaper the next day to figure out our fantasy scores. Get off my lawn! ) As the ability to get more and more stats in near real-time improved, our interest in crunching the numbers led to a proliferation of ways to look at and use that data, both in analyzing the game and in setting up scoring systems. The ability to custom tailor a scoring system to anybody’s particular preferences is an unmitigated good thing. There has also been a parallel evolution in the “game” of fantasy football. Originally a goal was to make it look a lot like an actual NFL game and score. This evolved to make it less of a simulation and more of a game, with scoring systems adapting to favor predictable elements and increasing balance. There is, of course, merit in both approaches. And most of us like elements from both sides. (Look at the opposition to 2QB leagues, or the historical resistance to decimal scoring to see folks who favor a better “simulation.” Even then, few are going back to the old days of TDs and FGs being the only fantasy scoring plays. But if folks like the OP want to, more power to them!) The hobby has definitely “evolved” and like classical evolution this has led to the rapid diversification of league types, each optimized for its particular niche of the market which it serves exquisitely well. In fact, “evolution” seems tombe the perfect description of the way the hobby has developed within my lifetime.
  15. Nonetheless, he makes a good point.
  16. You aren’t a regular poster, so before anyone jumps on you let me politely point you to the assistant coach forum for questions like this about your own fantasy team. Also, keeper choices depend a lot on the cost to keep. If you give up nothing, keep all of them. If you give up your first picks for keepers, throw all of these back. If the cost is based on draft round, we need that info to give good advice, For what it is worth, I rank those guys Jones >> Cobb > Moncreif >> Snead
  17. It could mean coverage broke more often against the Cowboys. But the more likely explanation is other QBs being more willing to take chances throwing into coverage deep than Dak. That’s what I was suggesting. *I* could achieve a top rated deep passing rank if I never threw more than five yards unless the defender had fallen down. I might only complete one deep pass, but I’d have a perfect deep passer rating! (Assuming, of course I could survive even one hit from an NFL defender to be able to reach that point. I can’t.)
  18. Activatng “pedant mode:” Thanks to the marvels of relocation, while it is true that the Ravens are 2-0 in Super Bowls, the city of Baltimore is actually 3-1.
  19. The trick with this is that there are (at least) two possible causes: 1) Dak somehow gets more accurate the harder he heaves the football (unlikely) 2) Dak is a conservative decision-maker, and thus only throws deep in the first place when he sees a broken coverage, leading to a relatively easy completion. My money is on the second, which means, while the airyards charts are pretty, I’m not sure they are telling us anything predictive. Also, since most third and longs are going to be routes where the first down marker is at intermediate range and the defense is sitting in a pattern designed to prevent that conversion, it wouldn’t surprise me if intermediate throws are harder than deep throws for most QBs. But I haven’t done the math to prove that...
  20. Common fallacy to count Super Bowl losses as a net negative for a franchise. Every Super Bowl loss is a conference mean feat in its own right.
  21. I’d like to vote Smoo, as the best answers aren’t even on the list.
  22. All time? Right now? On field, off field, or both? Very vague question...
  23. Past experience can be very useful in self-assessment. “Does my own player study (or that of experts I follow) tend to successfully identify productive rookies or not?” “How does the level of uncertainty in my evaluation of rookies at each position compare to the level of uncertainty in veteran evaluation?” I am not using past performance of other rookies to assess the quality of DJ Moore’s play. But I am using it to assess how likely I am to correctly predict the quality of DJ Moore’s play.
  24. I would agree with this if the colleges were a true “minor league” whose reason for existence was to produce talent. But I would suggest two changes: 1) I would change “produce talent” to “develop talent.” If there is a flaw in the programs, it is failing to develop raw talent (which we see enter the league in abundance) into refined craftsmanship. I suspect one key reason for this is the fact that colleges are not seeing talent development as their primary purpose. 2) An issue discussed more commonly in QB analysis (equally inconsistent), that college schemes that work very well to allow dominant athletes to overwhelm lesser competition don’t translate well to the NFL where every single player is a dominant athlete. Coleman and the other Baylor receivers make a good illustration...Baylor WRs dont run full routes every play so they can pace themselves for athletic bursts. Would that fly in the pro league? They also specialize on one side of the field and rarely motion across the formation. So just trying to guess their NFL success already builds in having to project whether skills unpracticed can be learned quickly enough to transition. How do we as outsiders even begin to estimate a college player’s learning speed, as well as work ethic and adaptability? I think if we want to see improvement in our (and the league’s) identification of elite talent at WR and QB we would need to see a true developmental league brought into existence. Let draft picks spend up to two years on split contracts competing in a minor league and honing the professional craft, running pro schemes under pro coaches, facing other elite draftable talent. Fantasy owners at least would have a lot more to base their judgments on when drafting players coming out of such a league. (I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be a net profit for the NFL either, and give them marketing inroads into medium markets that currently don’t have the prospect of attracting an NFL team.)
  25. I think the craft of being an NFL wide receiver is considerably more complex than, say RB. The transition from college route trees and timing patterns to professional route trees and timing patterns is huge, making it harder to correctly project. It has also been a while since anyone was proclaimed a “generational talent” as a WR, garnering near unanimous approval (like, say, Barkley this year at RB). Consensus on the past few classes (since Sammy Watkins?) has been that the classes have “good but not great” WRs, with converstaions focusing on who is best in class. Cooper may have gotten some solid hype...but he’s also done the best to date of the prospects mentioned in your post. So one possibility is simply that the WR talent coming out in recent classes has been below average.