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jwinston2

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About jwinston2

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  1. Flex (ppr) Vance McDonald, LeSean McCoy, or D.K. Metcalf? (Vance projected highest) RB (ppr) McCoy or Mostert? Thank you Sig.
  2. Chris Johnson wants to emulate Adrian Peterson: Source: Scout.com
  3. I have a degree in neuroscience. I think I know a thing or two about correlation vs. causation. Needless to say, I don't agree with your take. Pulling out the degree card? So you have a graduate education in neuroscience? If you just have a B.S. that is irrelevant. You have not done any real studies, written papers, etc. However I have done this because I have gone to graduate school with multiple degrees, Biomedical Engineering/Biochemistry, God I hate pulling out the degree card. If you have attempted higher education you would know this is not a take, but rather simple fact. I know your undergraduate professors did not teach you this because quite simple you did not need to know. As someone who has taught this though I can promise you that you are wrong, all proper and well done scientific method is based on this golden rule. Wow. this is either hilarious or pathetic. I can't make up my mind.I made up mine. Pathetic.as.hell. Props to EBF for just straight up ignoring this post. Also, for a guy that claims to have multiple graduate degrees and written papers at a graduate level, there are quite a few grammatical errors in just that short paragraph. I don't recall anyone claiming to have a PHD in grammar.All kinds of ridiculously smart people in scientific fields can't compose a decent sentence. Maybe this guy/gal is one. Exactly, besides also being at work. Funny that an EBF cheerleader would say that when I didn't even bring it up to begin with. Where did I say that I was an EBF cheerleader? I do respect his opinion, but my post to you had nothing to do with that. It had everything to do with a guy bragging about how smart he is, but doing so while writing a paragraph that was absolutely brutal to read through. The degree card is a sad one to have to play, and proves nothing except that you can't make a valid argument except for saying "I must be right, I have a lot of degrees." It reeks of insecurity. Also, if you've already posted in the thread, blackdots are not necessary. Notice how even though I'm at work, I managed to compose complete sentences? Amazing. Maybe you did not bother to read, but the "I have a degree in neuroscience. I think I know a thing or two about correlation vs. causation." was not stated by me first. However since EBF felt it was necessary to pull out the "degree card," as you have pointed out, then I was making sure he understood that means nothing as many of us have degrees. Since you have chosen to ignore this fact and instead attack me, I am going to say you are being a hypocrite/cheerleader and will use the Yes your grammar and written composition are outstanding, you win and I fail.
  4. I have a degree in neuroscience. I think I know a thing or two about correlation vs. causation. Needless to say, I don't agree with your take. Pulling out the degree card? So you have a graduate education in neuroscience? If you just have a B.S. that is irrelevant. You have not done any real studies, written papers, etc. However I have done this because I have gone to graduate school with multiple degrees, Biomedical Engineering/Biochemistry, God I hate pulling out the degree card. If you have attempted higher education you would know this is not a take, but rather simple fact. I know your undergraduate professors did not teach you this because quite simple you did not need to know. As someone who has taught this though I can promise you that you are wrong, all proper and well done scientific method is based on this golden rule. Wow. this is either hilarious or pathetic. I can't make up my mind.I made up mine. Pathetic.as.hell. Props to EBF for just straight up ignoring this post. Also, for a guy that claims to have multiple graduate degrees and written papers at a graduate level, there are quite a few grammatical errors in just that short paragraph. I don't recall anyone claiming to have a PHD in grammar.All kinds of ridiculously smart people in scientific fields can't compose a decent sentence. Maybe this guy/gal is one. Exactly, besides also being at work. Funny that an EBF cheerleader would say that when I didn't even bring it up to begin with.
  5. Actually, my argument is pretty solid. No RBs who are as small as Chris Johnson have become elite FF backs in the past decade. Therefore I find it unlikely that Chris Johnson will become an elite FF back. I posted those videos to show the dramatic difference in size between Mendenhall/Stewart and Johnson. Johnson is noticeably skinny. Yes, he's the only one of the three producing consistent stats right now, but I'd argue that part of the reason for that is because his competition for touches is much weaker. He's the best offensive player on the Titans. That wouldn't be the case if he was on the Steelers or Panthers. He might not even be the best RB on those teams. Opportunity is a necessary ingredient for production. If Mendenhall and Stewart had the same opportunity as Johnson then I think they'd be producing pretty respectable numbers. Winning FF leagues is often about having difference makers on your roster. In order to become a difference maker, a RB usually has to receive the lion's share of his teams carries. Consider the elite difference maker FF backs of the past decade:LaDainian Tomlinson Marshall Faulk Ahman Green Larry Johnson Priest Holmes Clinton Portis Emmitt Smith Shaun Alexander Tiki Barber Ricky Williams Jamal Lewis Fred Taylor Eddie George Barry Sanders Frank Gore Brian Westbrook By and large, RBBC is not what comes to mind when you think of these players. Yes, some of them split carries at some point in their career, but none of them reached the truly elite levels until they became the unquestioned bell cow for their team. If he continues to get 20 touches per game then he'll continue to be very useful to FF teams. That said:- He's been losing crucial goal line touches to LenDale White. He won't be an elite FF back unless he gets those touches. - We don't know that he can survive this workload over an extended period of time. - It's possible, but unlikely that he'll sustain a 5.5 YPC. I have a hunch that his YPC might dip as he wears down over the course of the season. Chris Johnson is a dynamic player. He has the potential to help FF teams for a long time (just like Warrick Dunn has). However, I don't think it's wrong to be skeptical of the idea that he's the next great FF back. Physically, he doesn't really resemble the guys who were able to put up multiple monster seasons and sustain elite production over an extended period of time. That tells me he probably won't be able to match their achievements and should be viewed more as a committee type. This is not really that controversial of an argument. When he was drafted, most pundits pegged him as a speedy complement to White. IMO people who are selling the idea that he's a future workhorse have turned him into something he's not. Only time will tell if I'm right. I'm sure you have stated this before. But how come you list Westbrook as an elite FF back & he is listed at.. 5-10 203 pounds.. CJ is listed at 5-11 & 200 pounds. Why can't he become the type of back that Westbrook is.. Another reason why his stats are flawed, which I pointed out earlier. He will say he uses Combine numbers, which are more accurate because players are frozen in time at the Combine and never have weight go up or down after the fact. Without valid data points his analysis is a guess like everyone else.
  6. I have a degree in neuroscience. I think I know a thing or two about correlation vs. causation. Needless to say, I don't agree with your take. Pulling out the degree card? So you have a graduate education in neuroscience? If you just have a B.S. that is irrelevant. You have not done any real studies, written papers, etc. However I have done this because I have gone to graduate school with multiple degrees, Biomedical Engineering/Biochemistry, God I hate pulling out the degree card. If you have attempted higher education you would know this is not a take, but rather simple fact. I know your undergraduate professors did not teach you this because quite simple you did not need to know. As someone who has taught this though I can promise you that you are wrong, all proper and well done scientific method is based on this golden rule.
  7. You bring up an interesting question.Why haven't more small athletes been put in the position Johnson has? Do you think this is random luck or some sort of vast conspiracy against small running backs? The simple size of undersized elite athletes is not small. It's absolutely staggering. Every year there are millions of teenagers playing high school football. These players come in all shapes and sizes. There's no shortage of sub 200 pound players with blazing speed. This is where we disagree. Out of a pool of millions of football players, the RB position has a clear selection bias for speedy backs roughly between 5'9"-6'2" and 200-235 pounds. This is not a random lottery just like it isn't random that Wall Street firms might have a preference for intelligent, hard-working individuals with Ivy League degrees. It's not like these people randomly end up in the position they're in. There's a reason why they're chosen.The RB position in the NFL requires a specific skill set that seems to be found almost exclusively within a very narrow range of body types. You don't see 197 pound running backs for the same reason you don't see 6'8" centers in the NBA. They don't possess the physical traits needed to perform their job. It's not correlation. It's causation. EBF if you disagree with this you don't understand statistics, simply put this is one of the foundations of this field of study. I understand your interest but I have a feeling your getting your feet wet in a pool with out ever learning how to swim. For a little information on this read this.
  8. Perhaps players his size haven't been put in this position often based on what NFL decision-makers think they know about productive RBs?You can go around in circles on correlation and causation but neither correlation nor causation carry footballs into packs of large, angry men. Agreed, but in stats and science a well thought out study does not allow for circles. To further your point maybe players of CJ3's size choose to play a different sport for whatever reason, more money, less wear and tear, etc.The point I am trying to make is EBF is using statistics to make an argument. He can have his opinion all he wants but when he starts to apply statistic incorrectly I feel obligated to point it out.
  9. Actually, my argument is pretty solid. No RBs who are as small as Chris Johnson have become elite FF backs in the past decade. Therefore I find it unlikely that Chris Johnson will become an elite FF back. I posted those videos to show the dramatic difference in size between Mendenhall/Stewart and Johnson. Johnson is noticeably skinny. Yes, he's the only one of the three producing consistent stats right now, but I'd argue that part of the reason for that is because his competition for touches is much weaker. He's the best offensive player on the Titans. That wouldn't be the case if he was on the Steelers or Panthers. He might not even be the best RB on those teams. Opportunity is a necessary ingredient for production. If Mendenhall and Stewart had the same opportunity as Johnson then I think they'd be producing pretty respectable numbers. Winning FF leagues is often about having difference makers on your roster. In order to become a difference maker, a RB usually has to receive the lion's share of his teams carries. Consider the elite difference maker FF backs of the past decade:LaDainian TomlinsonMarshall FaulkAhman GreenLarry JohnsonPriest Holmes Clinton Portis Emmitt SmithShaun AlexanderTiki BarberRicky Williams Jamal LewisFred TaylorEddie GeorgeBarry SandersFrank GoreBrian WestbrookBy and large, RBBC is not what comes to mind when you think of these players. Yes, some of them split carries at some point in their career, but none of them reached the truly elite levels until they became the unquestioned bell cow for their team. If he continues to get 20 touches per game then he'll continue to be very useful to FF teams. That said:- He's been losing crucial goal line touches to LenDale White. He won't be an elite FF back unless he gets those touches. - We don't know that he can survive this workload over an extended period of time.- It's possible, but unlikely that he'll sustain a 5.5 YPC. I have a hunch that his YPC might dip as he wears down over the course of the season. Chris Johnson is a dynamic player. He has the potential to help FF teams for a long time (just like Warrick Dunn has). However, I don't think it's wrong to be skeptical of the idea that he's the next great FF back. Physically, he doesn't really resemble the guys who were able to put up multiple monster seasons and sustain elite production over an extended period of time. That tells me he probably won't be able to match their achievements and should be viewed more as a committee type.Problem is you have some serious flaws to your argument, I have already pointed out the problem with your statistics, as your pool is too small for you to make the claims you are making, by the way what is your confidence interval? I wouldn't be surprised to find it is very low. With that being said you could be right about CJ3 but you are still ignoring facts such as how many players his size have been put in the position he has? If you look at the last decade I have a feeling a majority of the RB's are of the larger size and thus you are much more likely to have successful larger backs based on statistics alone. I will leave you with one thought as I know nothing of your background, but in stats and science remember the golden rule "correlation does not imply causation."
  10. yupI would agree. I am starting him over Jackson.
  11. It's interesting reading. And I agree with alot of what he says.But...A) who is this writer?B) what are his credentials?C) I'm betting he's a huge homerAs a Titan's Homer I can tell you Bongo works for the organization. I believe he is the team doctor or one of the doctors and for the last few years has posted on some titan sites with very good information, imo. He is not always right but he does have an insider viewpoint that very few on this board will ever have.
  12. CJ is clearly going to get more touches than Lendale but I still wouldn't just dump him. Their carries were dead even yesterday and I know CJ left the game with cramps so that could have been a factor. Lendale still had 10 fantasy points at the end of the day, I recall several top backs that didn't sniff that.Touches overall...maybe.More carries? Not really.Its one game people.And Lendale was in there late to keep wearing on the D and he will continue to get those carries and I would expect will get some earlier in the game too.I would see more of a 60/40 split on carries (in favor of White) with Johnson getting the receptions too.did you watch the game? I find your statement hard to believe if you did. The difference between the two was night and day. It comes down to production and on that basis Johnson was EXTREMELY effective and White was ineffective. Forget carries/touches, etc. it's going to come down to how they produce on the field and after 1 game you've got a guy with a 6.2 ypc (and looked terrific doing it) vs. a guy with a 2.6 ypc (and looked very pedestrian as always) on the same number of carries.They would have lost the game if not for Johnson. I suspect the lionshare of White's carries will be mop up carries...Yes...I watched the game.Yes, I watched the game last year and several others where Chris Brown looked better.Yet I have watched Jeff Fisher ball for years and know how they play football.Johnson will get his touches for sure...probably the same amount of "touches" but Lendale will get more carries than him on the year.And yes...White will get a ton of mop up carries...I said as much.As a Titan's fan I can say with confidence you are wrong. The only way Lendale gets more touches is if Johnson gets hurt. Before Johnson went down he had 18 touches to Lendale's 9. Fisher Ball will use them both but Johnson will definitely be getting more than Lendale.