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About ZWK

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  1. I don't put all that much effort into trying to predict how a player's value will move. Mostly I just try to buy players that I currently think are undervalued, and sell the guys that I own who I think are overvalued. I look ahead mostly to try to guess how much a player is likely to produce in future years, not how his value will move. If I think that a player is misvalued, I do pay some attention to how quickly I think the market will correct itself in order to decide how eager I should be to try to make a move quickly. For example, if I thought at the start of the offseason "People are overvaluing Rawls because they're acting like he has already won the workhorse role, but I think that he may have to compete to win that big of a role" then I'd be trying to sell him relatively quickly, since my edge seems likely to disappear quickly as news comes out over the course of the offseason. Whereas if I'm thinking "People are overvaluing John Brown because Palmer doesn't have much time left as a top QB, and Brown's production is going to take a dive once he no longer has Palmer in his late prime" then I won't be in as much of a rush to sell him early in the offseason, since it seems less likely that other people will come around to my view over the course of the offseason.
  2. In 2013, Gordon had 117.6 receiving yards per game, which is the 2nd most since 1999 . He averaged 10.35 yards per target, on an offense that threw for 4.59 YPT when throwing elsewhere, which makes it the best season by any WR in Yards Per Target Relative to Teammates. There were some good things about his situation and some bad things (Campbell/Weeden/Hoyer at QB), but his production was way too good to just chalk it up to a good situation.
  3. Where would you rank 2017 with this two classes? Tex I don't have rankings of the 2017 class yet. I guess I'd put Fournette & Chubb right behind Elliott. Then JuJu Smith-Schuster, Royce Freeman, Dalvin Cook, Samaje Perine, and Christian McCaffrey somewhere within the next two tiers (Parker to Gordon). I haven't followed things closely enough to fill out the bottom half of the top 12, but I guess some of the other RBs mentioned here would probably go in there somewhere.
  4. I don't have detailed redraft rankings yet, but I'd be a bit hesitant to take Elliott that early just because he's a rookie and we haven't yet seen how the depth chart is going to shake out or how he looks against NFL competition. Rookies sometimes take time to get it - getting up to game speed, learning their assignments, pass blocking, fumbles, etc. The coaches have not yet clearly established him as the workhorse ahead of McFadden on the depth chart; he could wind up in more of a committee role if the coaches don't trust him in certain roles or circumstances. I'm only a bit hesitant because, in Elliott's favor, he was unusually good at pass blocking and not fumbling. And he looks like a really good prospect as a runner. And McFadden + Morris don't look like very tough competition. And, despite their lack of RB talent, last year Dallas's lead RB put up stats that are probably worthy of a late 2nd rounder (276/1249/6 rushing + 38/313/0 receiving in 16 games, 5 games of Randle followed by 11 games of McFadden). There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 RB rankings between now and the start of the season, with question marks about guys like Elliott, Charles (coming back from his ACL), Lacy (returning to form or not), Freeman (committee risk), McCoy (committee risk), and Rawls (committee risk and not yet established as a starter).
  5. With a circle, there are infinitely many possible cuts and they all go through the same point at the center. Every diameter is a possible cut, and those are the only possible cuts. I think that is also true with a pentagon, although I'm more confident in the "infinitely many" part than the "same point at the center" part. There should be infinitely many possible cuts, because if you pick any one point on the perimeter as your starting point there must be some point across the pentagon which you can cut to in order to make it exactly a 50-50 split. I'm less sure about them going through the same point, but it does happen with circles and squares and my intuition is that it works with all regular polygons.
  6. WR Julian Edelman (WR21 by ADP in PPR). In the past 9 seasons, New England's slot receiver has been a top 16 fantasy receiver (PPR, ppg, min 8 games) 8 times, with the one exception coming in 2010 when Wes Welker finished as WR22 coming off an ACL injury. Those 8 top-16 seasons include 3 by Edelman, and 1 with Matt Cassel at QB. All 8 were on a 100+ reception pace. I can live with some injury risk, and a few Garoppolo games early in the season. RB Frank Gore (RB31), Justin Forsett (RB36), and Rashad Jennings (RB39). They're all incumbent starters with a shot at a relatively big workload. They do have to stay healthy, avoid the aging cliff, and fend off some competition, but none of their competition obviously demands a significant chunk of the workload. QB Tyrod Taylor is QB20 by ADP. He was QB7ish last year, with a (early career) Russell Wilsonesque combination of low volume, good efficiency, and big rushing numbers. I could see his numbers moving in either direction this year - he might fall apart, or he might get to throw more and rise further up the ranks. And a boom-or-bust profile is what you want from a guy who's near the baseline.
  7. Think in terms of object with some area, not dimensionless points. A given object takes up a smaller fraction of the area of its ring if it is more towards the outside, and there is the same amount of laser cuts in each ring, so the odds of getting cut must be dropping as you move outward. For example, imagine that you divide the circle into "rings" which are each one foot wide. Say that a ring near the center is 50 feet around its circumference, and a ring near the outside is 5,000 feet around. Now, take an object that is one square foot in size. Whichever ring you put it in, it takes up the entire width and 1 foot of the circumference. If you put it in the ring near the center then there is a 1/50 chance that the laser will go through it. If you put it in the ring near the outside then there is a 1/5000 chance that the laser will go through it. (In general, the chance that the laser goes through it is proportional to 1/r, where r is its distance from the center of the circle.)
  8. False; Austin is nowhere close to Harvin as a receiver. Best seasons by yards per target, Tavon Austin & Percy Harvin (min 20 targets): YPT Player Tm Year 8.68 Harvin MIN 2009 7.99 Harvin MIN 2011 7.96 Harvin MIN 2012 7.96 Harvin MIN 2010 7.27 Harvin BUF 2015 6.19 Harvin SEA&NYJ 2014 6.06 Austin STL 2013 5.50 Austin STL 2014 5.44 Austin STL 2015
  9. In 2013 at FSU, Kelvin Benjamin was a modest volume, high efficiency receiver (11.6 yards per target, but with fewer targets than Rashad Greene). In 2014 with Carolina, he was a high volume, mediocre efficiency receiver (6th in the NFL in targets, with only 7.0 YPT).
  10. Here is how I currently rank the fantasy first rounders from the past 2 classes (where the first rounders were picked out from these threads). 2015 RB Todd Gurley 2015 WR Amari Cooper 2016 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2015 WR DeVante Parker 2015 WR Kevin White 2016 WR Corey Coleman 2016 WR Josh Doctson 2016 WR Laquon Treadwell 2016 RB Derrick Henry 2015 RB Ameer Abdullah 2015 RB TJ Yeldon 2015 RB Melvin Gordon 2015 WR Phillip Dorsett 2016 WR Will Fuller 2016 WR Sterling Shepard 2016 WR Michael Thomas 2015 WR Dorial Green-Beckham 2015 WR Breshad Perriman 2016 RB C.J. Prosise 2015 RB Tevin Coleman 2016 RB Kenneth Dixon 2016 WR Tyler Boyd 2015 WR Nelson Agholor 2016 RB Devontae Booker In total, I think the 2015 draft class accounts for about 60% of the fantasy value of these guys. The gap gets fairly small if you remove Cooper (or Gurley), but still with a pretty clear edge for the first round of 2015. And the 2nd round of 2015 is looking way better than the 2nd round of 2016 (it includes David Johnson, Duke, Ajayi, Mariota, Winston, Lockett, Funchess).
  11. As a simpler version, we can imagine that the shape
  12. New puzzle and solution to last week's.
  13. wdcrob figured it out here.
  14. Edelman seems to be significantly underrated this year, at least by FBG staff. They currently have him ranked as WR22 in PPR, and projected for 78-94 receptions per 16 games (with an average of 86) among the 4 guys who do projections. Edelman was WR7 last year in ppg (min 8 games), and WR16 & WR15 the previous two years. New England's top underneath receiver (Welker or Edelman) has been on a 100+ reception pace in 8 of the past 9 years (3 out of 3 for Edelman, 5 out of 6 for Welker with the one exception being 2010 when he was coming off an ACL injury). Are people worried about his foot injury? About Brady's suspension? About the addition of Martellus Bennett? Waldman is the lowest on Edelman (ranking him at WR34), and says that he's worried about Bennett, citing Welker's poor 2010 season when Gronk & Hernandez were rookies. But that was also Welker's ACL-recovery year, and Welker's best statistical season came in 2011 when the Gronk/Hernandez duo were at their peak. Jason Wood is the next lowest on Edelman (WR28), saying that the Patriots love to spread the ball around and mentioning the addition of Chris Hogan. But we have now been through 9 straight years with Welker or Edelman piling up receptions for the Patriots, with an average of 116 rec per 16 games for Welker and then 106 rec per 16 games for Edelman. Setting aside his foot injury, I think I'd put Edelman somewhere in the WR10-15 range in PPR (among guys like Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, and Amari Cooper). I don't have a great sense of how much to downgrade him for the foot injury, but it seems like probably not enough to put him below that range.
  15. For me, dynasty takes significantly more time/effort/thought than redraft. Dynasty is year-round, redraft only lasts a little longer than the NFL season. In-season management is not that different between the formats, but dynasty involves way more off-season work. In dynasty, most roster changes require trades (which tend to involve a fair amount of thinking, discussions, and efforts which wind up not amounting to anything). In redraft, most of it comes in the draft which takes only a couple hours in its entirety. If you thought a year ago that Doug Martin was underrated, and now you think he's overrated, in dynasty acting on that would mean trying to trade for him last offseason and trying to trade him away now. In redraft, you could just choose to draft him last year and to not draft him this year. More players are fantasy-relevant in dynasty. You have to think about what you eventually expect to see from Nelson Agholor, Jerick McKinnon, Jared Goff, Maxx Williams, etc., and make moves to fill your roster with prospects that you like. In redraft, you're mostly focused on current fantasy starters plus a few backups or guys with upside. I find dynasty more fun than redraft, although I also enjoy draft-only best ball redraft leagues a lot (which go even farther in the direction of less time/effort).