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About ZWK

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  1. I wouldn't call Aiyuk an out-of-left-field pick like Jenkins. Arif Hasan's consensus big board had him ranked as an early 2nd round pick, and the 7th highest WR (and just 6 picks behind the 5th WR). And that matches what I was generally seeing in how folks saw the WRs - 4 obvious 1st round WRs (JJ, CL, HR, JJ) and then a trail pack of 6ish others who were more often seen as 2nd rounders but had a shot to make it into the 1st round, with Aiyuk clearly part of that group. After the draft, Pittman got a big boost in people's eyes (from being a tail-end or borderline member of that trail pack to being one of the favorites), Reagor got a solid boost, Higgins got a solid boost, Mims got just a slight decline, and Aiyuk if anything seemed to decline.
  2. Keep Cook. Ditch Higbee & Green. Try to trade 3 of the other 4, doesn't matter that much which. I'd rank them Andrews, Metcalf, Mostert, Singletary, but that could change in the coming months.
  3. Here are 5 more: Former Jets RB, big plodder, drafted in the 3rd rd of the 2009 draft out of Iowa, initials S.G. Undersized RB out of SDSU, drafted by the Eagles in the 4th rd of the 2017 draft after the Bears took Tarik Cohen, initials D.P. 2019 Colts' starting QB who just lost his job to Rivers, acquired from NE for a WR, initials J.B. The WR who was drafted by the Colts in the 1st rd and traded to NE for that QB, initials P.D. The head coach of the Patriots who made that trade, initials B.B.
  4. I don't think of myself as fading Higgins & Pittman, I just have them behind Aiyuk. And usually they're going after Aiyuk, so I won't be drafting them. But I wouldn't much mind if someone else snagged Aiyuk and one of them fell to me instead. Whereas someone like Vaughn I do think of myself as fading, since I have him a tier behind where he's often going. It seems like people are drafting him for his situation, when his situation isn't even that great. On my draft list, I don't think I'm drafting any of these guys all that early relative to their NFL draft spot, so in large part this is a list of guys who are going later in fantasy drafts than they did in NFL drafts. A couple are guys I like even relative to their NFL draft spot (Aiyuk, Gibson), a couple are guys who I really dislike at their NFL draft spot (Hamler, V Jefferson) but other fantasy drafters are apparently even more down on them. Most are in between, e.g. Gabriel Davis & Lamical Perine seem like pretty typical NFL 4th rounders. I have them behind the more popular options (Gandy-Golden at WR, Kelley & McFarland at RB), but by a much smaller gap than we're seeing in rookie drafts. BPA when Asiasi was drafted (according to my draft board): Gabriel Davis, Cole Kmet, DeeJay Dallas, KJ Hamler (Duvernay also available), DeeJay Dallas, KJ Hamler (Edwards also available), KJ Hamler. I have him in the same tier as Gabriel Davis & DeeJay Dallas, so I would've at least been considering Asiasi in those leagues (and I haven't checked if TE premium should've rearranged my draft board for any of these leagues).
  5. I just looked through several of the more recent drafts in the Rookie Drafts thread, and it looks like these are the guys that I would own the most: 56% Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR 46% Davis, Gabriel BUF 41% Hamler, KJ DEN 24% Swift, D'Andre DET 23% Gibson, Antonio WAS 22% Evans, Darrynton TEN 21% Ruggs, Henry LVR 20% Claypool, Chase PIT 18% Coulter, Isaiah HOU 15% Jefferson, Van LAR WR 15% Perine, Lamical NYJ These guys are my favorites relative to draft position in 8 drafts which have been posted over the past couple weeks. The percent is the fraction of the leagues that I'd expect to own the guy in, if it was a 12-team draft and I had a random draft slot and just used all my picks on rookies. For example, according to my draft board Chase Claypool was BPA in this draft from pick 2.11 through 3.02 (after Shenault was gone until he was drafted), so I'm assuming that he would've been mine if I owned any of those 4 picks, which gives me a 4/12=33% chance. And these are the guys that I would own the least: 0% Reagor, Jalen PHI 0% Mims, Denzel NYJ 0% Dillon, AJ GBP 0% Kelley, Joshua LAC 0% McFarland, Anthony PIT 0% Gandy-Golden, Antonio WAS 0% Asiasi, Devin NEP 1% Jeudy, Jerry DEN 1% Higgins, Tee CIN 1% Pittman, Michael IND 1% Vaughn, Ke'Shawn TBB 1% Edwards, Bryan LVR WR 1% Trautman, Adam NOS Caveat that I didn't pay attention to league rules, so I might (e.g.) be missing out on TEs by ignoring that the league is TE premium. (I do own Asiasi in one of my actual TE premium leagues.) My draft board is similar to (but not identical to) what I posted here and here.
  6. Gio's numbers were pretty awful last year. His yards per carry were down, his yards per target were down, his rushing & receiving DVOA were down, his PFF grade was down. His 2018 wasn't so hot either, and then his 2019 was worse.
  7. Earlier is better, for the most part, because there's such a huge dropoff in value over the first round. McCaffrey is worth close to twice as much as anyone you can get at 1.12. If it's superflex then Mahomes is too. Although if there's a part of the first round where you think the BPA value is roughly flat then it can be good to draft later (e.g., if you think McCaffrey vs. Mahomes is a tossup in superflex then you're probably better off with pick 2). Picking in the middle of the round is better than picking on the turn, because when I have the first pick in a round I find that the jerk right in front of me always snipes the guy I was hoping for. Whereas when my picks are 12 apart I don't keep sniping myself. But this is less important than the McCaffrey/Mahomes windfall.
  8. ZWK


    Since a couple people have asked via DM, here's how draft slots work. I'll flip a coin (or equivalent), and the owner that wins the coin flip gets to pick their draft slot in whichever of the two drafts they want (dispersal draft or rookie draft). If the coinflip winner chooses to take slot 4 in the rookie draft (which comes with 1.04, 2.04, 2.11, 3.04, 4.04, and 5.04), then the other owner gets slot 6 in the rookie draft (1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 5.06) and gets to pick their slot in the dispersal draft. Or, the coinflip winner can choose to pick their slot in the dispersal draft, which lets the other person have the better rookie draft slot. The dispersal draft itself is a 27-round snake draft, where one owner gets picks 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, etc. and the other owner gets 2, 3, 6, 7, etc.
  9. ZWK


    EDIT: FILLED, and links removed Previous Title: Dispersal Draft in a 10-Team 0.5 PPR $47 Dynasty League Looking for two owners for a dispersal draft in a 10-team dynasty league. The basics: 10th year of the league. 0.5 PPR. Two flex spots. Start QRRWWWTFFDK. 24 man rosters plus 3 IR and 3 taxi squad. Playoffs weeks 15 & 16. $47 dues using leaguesafe. The details. We'll have a dispersal draft once both new owners are on board. Available players include Mahomes, Kamara, Chubb, D Henry, Godwin, D Adams, Beckham, Kelce, and much more. Rookies won't be in the dispersal draft. Instead, both teams will get a full slate of picks for the August rookie draft. One team has the 4 slot (plus a bonus pick at 2.11) and the other has the 6 slot. Message me if you're interested, ideally including a link to a team of yours in another dynasty league.
  10. This is roughly Mahomes for Burrow + 2.11 + 2021 2nd. Mahomes >>> Burrow, and two 2nds are nearly enough to close the gap.
  11. I wouldn't take that deal, but I might send a counter like 1.03 for 2.07 + 2021 1st.
  12. Looks good. Seems like this roster is mainly built to compete in a year or two, which is often a good approach to dynasty startups. At some point in a year or two I'd look to fill more of the roster with contributors and less with dart throws, but for now it makes sense to collect dart throws. Gio is the guy who fits least well with that, so maybe look to trade him. Breida is another guy who I'd be willing to move with this roster. I'd try to get a 3rd starting QB with it being superflex best ball, although they can be hard to come by. And I guess Mahomes + Prescott makes it less essential than usual.
  13. I guess you're talking to some very short people. That's a risk when you're jokey.
  14. James did play high school football, at WR. He had 42/752/11 receiving as a sophomore and 57/1160/16 as a junior. So this isn't purely about projecting his non-football athletic traits. And looks back at his HS football career have led to glowing articles like this and this. The latter article includes a quote from his high school's defensive coordinator, former Packers safety Mark Murphy, "I tell people that I rate my top receivers -- coaching, playing or watching -- as James Lofton, Jerry Rice, Steve Largent and LeBron James." Pushing against this optimism, projecting people's NFL chances based on what they did in HS is very difficult, as evidenced by the mixed track records of 5 star WRs, and knowing what James did in a different sport doesn't do much to reduce his bust risk (though I do think it says something good about his ceiling). That adds a little more detail on why I said 3rd round pick (a couple posts up).
  15. For me, the more interesting version of this question is: what draft pick would you use on LeBron? He's a prospect, and unusually hard to evaluate one at that since he last played football as a HS junior, so it seems more meaningful to compare him to other prospects rather than completed careers. To flesh it out a little more, imagine that 18-year-old LeBron James decides to focus on football, and instead of entering the NBA draft he gives up basketball forever and goes to Notre Dame on a football scholarship. And in some weird variant on the supplemental draft, we have to commit right then to what draft pick we'll eventually use on him 4ish years later, knowing nothing about his college football career (but knowing everything about his NBA career in the alternate world where he's a basketball star). I'll say a 3rd round pick. Most likely outcome is that he never makes the team, but there's enough of a chance of him turning into a Harold Carmichael or better that he's worth a mid-round shot. (In the original poll I voted "Below Average to Average", trying to average over the possible outcomes rather than picking the single most likely one.)