ZWK

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  1. The Sanchez signing seems fine. He is one of the top 60 QBs in the NFL, so he should be the backup QB on some team. And his $2M salary is reasonable for a backup QB.
  2. Elijah Hood had a lousy pro day, with a 40 around 4.6, a vertical of 31.5, and a broad jump of 9'5". He moves down a tier in my rankings, and now sits in between James Conner & D'Onta Foreman at the top of the "can't rule 'em out" tier. The depth in this draft is looking a lot stronger at WR and TE than at RB.
  3. He was beat out for the starting job this year by freshman Justice Hill, and had only 82 carries. Not a good sign.
  4. This is a very good break down on your part. That was pre-combine. I gave a post-combine breakdown in another thread but not here. Post-combine athleticism ranking (with an expanded list of players): Evan Engram Bucky Hodges George Kittle Jonnu Smith David Njoku O.J. Howard Gerald Everett Darrell Daniels Adam Shaheen Eric Saubert Blake Jarwin Pharaoh Brown Jordan Leggett Jake Butt Jeremy Sprinkle Cole Hikutini Michael Roberts Hayden Plinke (Using pro day numbers for Blake Jarwin, and nfldraftscout predicted 40 times for Jake Butt and Cole Hikutini.) And the overall ranking: Evan Engram George Kittle Bucky Hodges David Njoku Jonnu Smith Gerald Everett Pharaoh Brown O.J. Howard Jordan Leggett Michael Roberts Darrell Daniels Cole Hikutini Adam Shaheen Eric Saubert Blake Jarwin Jeremy Sprinkle Jake Butt Hayden Plinke Where everyone through Howard or Leggett has the numbers of a strong prospect, and Engram stands out ahead of the pack. (Though I am skeptical of Pharaoh Brown, who I think is getting too much credit for his 2014 production when he had high YPT on low volume.)
  5. nfldraftscout now has him at: 6'0.75", 228 lbs 4.45 40 35" vertical 9'10" broad jump 7.10 3-cone 4.27 ss 21 bench Xue has his 40 at 4.53.
  6. There are 7 RBs who ran at the combine but had not made my spreadsheet. 5 had too small of a workload to make the cut (Christopher Carson, Rushel Shell, Dare Ogunbowale, Justin Davis, T.J. Logan) and 2 went to non-FBS schools (Tarik Cohen & De'Angelo Henderson). On first pass, it looks none of them make the cut for the tiers I included in my previous post, although 3 of them come close: T.J. Logan, De'Angelo Henderson, and Christopher Carson. Henderson looks like the most interesting of the three; his 2014 game against North Dakota State is online and I liked his tenacity in fighting for extra yardage. Might be worth keeping an eye on.
  7. Yes. Fournette was my top rated RB a year ago. The combine would've brought his numbers down, but he still would've been close to Ezekiel Elliott (probably slightly ahead of Elliott, but I don't have an easy way to get the exact number).
  8. As Adam Harstad has written about, WRs generally don't decline gradually. Instead their production goes off a cliff at some point. One year the guy is a top 10 fantasy WR, the next he is not startable (see: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson). Or maybe he has 1 or 2 decline years where he still has some fantasy value, in between his years as a star and when he is no longer fantasy relevant (see: Roddy White, Marques Colston, Wes Welker). This can happen at any time, but the older a WR is, the more likely he is to hit the wall that year. In Harstad's chart, 32-year-old WRs have a 30% chance of going off a cliff, and that "mortality rate" keeps going up from there.
  9. Here is how my formula currently rates this year's RB class, in comparison to my pre-draft ratings for the 4 previous draft classes: Eddie Lacy 2013 Todd Gurley 2015 Melvin Gordon 2015 Christine Michael 2013 Carlos Hyde 2014 Ezekiel Elliott 2016 Joe Mixon 2017 Lache Seastrunk 2014 Jay Ajayi 2015 Curtis Samuel 2017 Tre Mason 2014 Giovani Bernard 2013 Ameer Abdullah 2015 Knile Davis 2013 Derrick Henry 2016 Darius Jackson 2016 Dalvin Cook 2017 Christian McCaffrey 2017 Jeremy Hill 2014 C.J. Prosise 2016 Jerick McKinnon 2014 Kenneth Dixon 2016 Jonathan Franklin 2013 Tevin Coleman 2015 Jordan Howard 2016 Duke Johnson 2015 Bishop Sankey 2014 Alvin Kamara 2017 DeAndre Washington 2016 Samaje Perine 2017 David Johnson 2015 Marcus Lattimore 2013 Jeremy McNichols 2017 Jhurell Pressley 2016 Stephen Houston 2014 Daniel Lasco 2016 Henry Josey 2014 Zac Stacy 2013 D.J. Harper 2013 Le'Veon Bell 2013 Kareem Hunt 2017 Cierre Wood 2013 Aaron Jones 2017 Kenjon Barner 2013 Paul Perkins 2016 Montee Ball 2013 Latavius Murray 2013 Elijah Hood 2017 Isaiah Crowell 2014 Andre Williams 2014 Charles Sims 2014 Joe Williams 2017 Dri Archer 2014 Alex Collins 2016 Marlon Mack 2017 Leonard Fournette 2017 Devonta Freeman 2014 David Cobb 2015 Devontae Booker 2016 James Conner 2017 T.J. Yeldon 2015 Cameron Artis-Payne 2015 Karlos Williams 2015 Josh Robinson 2015 Corey Grant 2015 D’Onta Foreman 2017 Kenyan Drake 2016 David Fluellen 2014 Treavor Scales 2013 Elijah McGuire 2017 Brian Hill 2017 Jeremy Langford 2015 Michael Ford 2013 Jamaal Williams 2017 Robert Godhigh 2014 Matthew Tucker 2013 Mike Davis 2015 George Atkinson III 2014 Wayne Gallman 2017 Keith Marshall 2016 Terrance West 2014 Michael Dyer 2015 Wendell Smallwood 2016 Tim Cornett 2014 Jonathan Williams 2016 C.J. Anderson 2013 Andre Ellington 2013 James White 2014 Stanley Boom Williams 2017 De'Anthony Thomas 2014 Anthony Wales 2017 Lorenzo Taliaferro 2014 Tyler Ervin 2016 Labeling these tiers as I have in previous years, that gives us: Guys I like a lot: none Guys I like: Mixon, Samuel, Cook Awkwardly between tiers: McCaffrey Guys who have a decent chance: Kamara, Perine, McNichols, Hunt, Aaron Jones, Hood, Joe Williams, Mack, Fournette Guys I can't rule out: Conner, Foreman, McGuire, Brian Hill, Jamaal Williams, Gallman, Boom Williams, Wales One thing that jumps out from this list is how weak this class is at the top, according to the formula. The top-rated RB this year is rated on a lower tier than the top rated RB from each of the previous 4 draft classes. And it's even worse when you consider that this year's #1 (Mixon) has major off-the-field concerns and this year's #2 (Samuel) is not really a RB (though, to be fair, there were also flags on a few of the highly-rated RBs in previous years like Lache Seastrunk, Knile Davis, and Darius Jackson). A related thing that jumps out: how low Fournette is rated. His elusiveness rating is excellent, but other than that his numbers are averageish. Size/athleticism is only slightly above average (good size, slightly better than average 40 time, terrible vertical, skipped the other most relevant drills). Rushing efficiency is averageish (great is 2015, meh in 2016 & 2014); his 3-year stats are a bit above average on most metrics (breaking off long runs, scoring in the red zone, picking up first downs) but bad at converting in short yardage. Age & rushing volume are averageish (typical age, carried the load in 2015 but missed a bunch of games in 2016). "Average" would basically put a guy at the bottom of the last tier shown here; it's basically just his elusiveness numbers that raise him up a tier above that in my formula. Focusing on the rest of the "decent chance" tier, from what I've seen I have generally not been that impressed with what I've seen from Jeremy McNichols, Aaron Jones, Joe Williams, and Marlon Mack. They all struggled to generate extra yards in traffic, in a way that seemed to reflect lack of basic RB skills (e.g., Mack danced around too much, Williams let defenders hit him solidly and got knocked back too often). I have been more impressed by Alvin Kamara, Samaje Perine, Elijah Hood, and Kareem Hunt (I think I'd rank them in that order). Perine and Hood are big guys who have looked good as power backs, but they're relatively slow and haven't done much in the passing game. They also both ran better in 2015 than in 2016. Kamara and Hunt are more versatile (they each had about 400 receiving yards this year). Hunt's big negative is his lack of athleticism, with a 4.62 40 at a medium-sized 216 pounds - those aren't disqualifying numbers (see: Mark Ingram, Thomas Rawls) but they're a bad sign. Kamara's big negative is his small workload, with 107 and 103 carries in his two seasons; he only led Tennessee's RBs in carries 4 times in the past 2 seasons (getting outcarried by Jalen Hurd 17 times and by John Kelly 5 times). But I think that Kamara's explosiveness (as measured by the jumps at the combine) and his success in the receiving game and the red zone give him the most upside out of this group.
  10. Xue timed his pro day 40 at 4.57, which is what I'll count it as unless/until nfldraftscout has a number for it.
  11. I wonder if a 3rd source might improve the accuracy even further? Probably by about a hundredth of a second. The different sources tend to give pretty similar numbers. So far this offseason, Xue and nfldraftscout differ by less than .02 sec on average.
  12. Serious question - is that a reliable calculation? Because I remember reading how someone did that with McCaffrey's run that was posted on the internet prior to the combine and he was much faster at the combine. I've relied on Xue's estimates. In previous years, nfldraftscout put out initial reports of 40 times and then later updated them to their final "official" 40 time. I was able to predict their final "official" 40 time more accurately if I used both Xue's estimate and the initial nfldraftscout report, compared to if I only used one of those two sources of data. This year, for pro days I'm planning to put equal weight on Xue's estimate and the nfldraftscout number, and for the combine I'm planning to put about 75% weight on the official number and 25% weight on Xue's estimate.
  13. How about Jerome Lane and Robert Davis? Akron's Jerome Lane is the next guy after Zay Jones. His production is above average but below the threshold that I usually look for; solid YPT (10.4) but not many TDs. (I just added Lane's birthdate which helps him a little; the gap was wider before I credited him for being a year younger than the average prospect.) Georgia State's Robert Davis had below average production for a college WR1, which it is impossible to make up for in my system. So, despite his huge combine, he doesn't rank anywhere close. I guess that elite athletes like him make for decent fliers, even though my numbers don't like them, although guys like Chris Conley and Marquise Goodwin haven't done much in the NFL.
  14. Do you have a spreadsheet somewhere with your 40 numbers for this year's class?
  15. Matt Harmon has started posting articles at The Fantasy Footballers with his Reception Perception analyses of this year's draft class. My favorite one of his metrics is success rate, which is just how often the receiver succeeded at getting open - on what fraction of his routes did he get open, broken down by route type (out, nine, comeback, etc.) or by coverage (zone, man, press). I have combined these breakdowns into a single adjusted success rate number. So far he has posted articles on 7 WRs. Carlos Henderson's numbers are excellent, Chris Godwin's are good, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross are solid, and JuJu Smith-Schuster & Cooper Kupp are below average. Here are how they stack up to last year's draft class: 84.5% Carlos Henderson 81.4% Sterling Shepard 79.5% Josh Doctson 77.3% Rashard Higgins 77.1% Chris Godwin 75.6% Corey Coleman 74.3% Laquon Treadwell 74.2% Michael Thomas 74.0% Corey Davis 73.9% Mike Williams 73.5% Malcolm Mitchell 73.5% John Ross 72.9% Mike Thomas 69.9% Leonte Carroo 69.6% Kenny Lawler (69.2% 2016 average) 69.1% Keyarris Garrett 67.4% Will Fuller 67.2% JuJu Smith-Schuster 67.0% Braxton Miller 67.0% Demarcus Robinson 65.4% Cooper Kupp 65.4% Tajae Sharpe 62.6% Pharoh Cooper 62.3% De'Runnya Wilson 62.0% Roger Lewis 61.1% Charone Peake 59.7% Aaron Burbidge 58.7% Tyler Boyd This basically means that Corey Davis got open on 74% of the routes that he ran, after adjusting for the type of coverage (it's easier to get open against zone than against press coverage) and the type of route (it's easier to get open on a flat route than a nine), but not for opponent (even though it's easier to get open against Kent State than against Wisconsin).