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About ZWK

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  1. If I had a fantasy draft today, I'd put the QBs in this order: Kyler Murray Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Will Grier Daniel Jones, Ryan Finley, Brett Rypien This is taking into account scouting reports / expected draft position, my own analyses (also: BMI, mph) and the analyses of other advanced stats folks like Ian Wharton, PFF, Josh Hermsmeyer, and Hayden Winks. Murray is the clear #1 as he has ridiculous production along with strong advanced stats, and he seems likely to be the #1 pick. Plus he runs a bunch, which is a big plus for fantasy. Haskins, Lock, and Grier all have relatively strong production and relatively strong advanced stats; they come out in different orders in different analyses. I'll defer to the expert consensus in deciding what order to put them in, but I'll disagree with the consensus in having them not all that far apart from each other. Daniel Jones is next because lots of people think he'll be a 1st or 2nd rounder. My own analysis is very pessimistic about him. By reputation Finley & Rypien are mid rounders, but by the numbers they look like the next tier after the Haskins/Lock/Grier trio.
  2. I've mentioned Ursua a few places in this thread, including at 21st in my pre-combine overall WR prospect rankings. Good production, but he's small (5'9.1", 178 lb., 26.2 BMI) and old (25 - basically the same age as Stefon Diggs & Brandin Cooks) since he went on a Mormon mission. Also the 40 and the jumps are generally more predictive than the agility drills, and Ursua shined primarily in the agility drills (although I haven't looked separately at slot receivers - maybe agility drills matter more there).
  3. Josh Jacobs with a 35" vertical (averageish), 9'4" broad jump (bad), and 40 time reported in the 4.6s (bad) at his pro day. Counting his 40 as a 4.65 in my formula, he falls out of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier into the "Guys I can 't rule out" tier. With those jumps, he needed a 4.55 or better to stay in the "decent chance" tier. The optimistic possibility is that he was less than 100% - his groin injury might have prevented him from working out as much. Jacobs has: good elusiveness, good rushing efficiency, limited workload, good receiving production, good size, questionable athleticism. That still could be a pretty promising package (especially after adjusting for how highly a lot of experts rate him), though it's not the sort of stellar profile that I like to see at the top of the draft. I like him more than my formula does, but I'd be wary of taking him within the first few picks of a rookie draft. Seems like a good year to trade down or target WRs.
  4. Here are some QB stats, looking at each quarterback's best season on each stat. I've picked 11 QBs in this draft class, plus all the 1st & 2nd round FBS QBs from the past few draft classes. First Downs per Attempt (non-RZ) 52.1% Kyler Murray 2018 48.4% Baker Mayfield 2016 43.5% Dwayne Haskins 2018 43.2% Will Grier 2018 42.5% Brett Rypien 2016 42.2% Tyree Jackson 2017 40.8% Sam Darnold 2017 40.1% Ryan Finley 2018 39.9% Deshaun Watson 2015 39.4% DeShone Kizer 2015 39.1% Paxton Lynch 2015 38.7% Josh Rosen 2017 38.7% Jared Goff 2015 38.6% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 38.4% Josh Allen 2016 38.0% Mitch Trubisky 2016 37.9% Lamar Jackson 2017 37.3% Drew Lock 2018 36.7% Gardner Minshew II 2018 [34.3% 2018 Average] 33.7% Christian Hackenberg 2014 33.5% Jarrett Stidham 2017 33.2% Clayton Thorson 2016 33.1% Daniel Jones 2016 Red Zone TD Rate 45.1% Sam Darnold 2016 41.4% Baker Mayfield 2017 41.2% Drew Lock 2017 39.2% Kyler Murray 2018 35.7% Paxton Lynch 2014 35.4% Will Grier 2017 34.4% Josh Allen 2016 34.1% Jared Goff 2015 33.8% Dwayne Haskins 2018 30.9% Mitch Trubisky 2016 30.6% Deshaun Watson 2016 30.3% Daniel Jones 2018 29.8% Lamar Jackson 2017 29.3% Brett Rypien 2018 29.2% Tyree Jackson 2018 28.6% Ryan Finley 2016 27.9% Clayton Thorson 2017 27.5% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 [26.6% 2018 Average] 26.3% DeShone Kizer 2016 24.5% Gardner Minshew II 2018 24.4% Christian Hackenberg 2013 22.8% Josh Rosen 2015 21.2% Jarrett Stidham 2017 Adjusted 3rd & 4th Down Conversion Rate 63.2% Kyler Murray 2018 62.9% Patrick Mahomes II 2016 59.9% Baker Mayfield 2016 59.0% Will Grier 2018 58.1% Brett Rypien 2018 57.5% Dwayne Haskins 2018 54.8% Deshaun Watson 2016 54.2% Jared Goff 2014 54.0% Sam Darnold 2016 54.0% DeShone Kizer 2015 51.9% Drew Lock 2017 51.8% Josh Allen 2016 51.3% Clayton Thorson 2016 50.9% Paxton Lynch 2015 49.9% Mitch Trubisky 2016 49.6% Ryan Finley 2016 49.4% Josh Rosen 2015 49.3% Tyree Jackson 2018 48.9% Lamar Jackson 2017 48.2% Christian Hackenberg 2014 47.8% Gardner Minshew II 2018 46.9% Daniel Jones 2016 45.6% Jarrett Stidham 2017 [44.5% 2018 Average] Sack Rate 1.6% Sam Darnold 2016 1.9% Gardner Minshew II 2018 2.2% Ryan Finley 2018 2.6% Drew Lock 2017 2.8% Josh Rosen 2015 3.0% Deshaun Watson 2015 3.1% Tyree Jackson 2016 3.5% Will Grier 2017 3.5% Paxton Lynch 2016 3.6% Dwayne Haskins 2018 4.3% Mitch Trubisky 2016 4.5% Brett Rypien 2015 4.5% Patrick Mahomes II 2015 4.6% Kyler Murray 2018 4.7% Jared Goff 2014 4.8% Baker Mayfield 2016 5.1% Christian Hackenberg 2013 5.8% Daniel Jones 2017 5.9% Jarrett Stidham 2018 6.3% Lamar Jackson 2017 6.4% DeShone Kizer 2015 6.5% Clayton Thorson 2017 6.5% Josh Allen 2016 Everything except sack rate is based only on the plays where the QB threw a pass, so it isn't counting (e.g.) 3rd downs that were converted on scrambles, or where the QB was sacked and therefore did not convert it. Jarrett Stidham falls below the Hackenberg waterline on all 4 of these stats, Daniel Jones on 3 of the 4, Clayton Thorson on 2, and Gardner Minshew on 1. Murray, Grier, Haskins, Lock, Rypien, and Finley are most often near the top out of this year's draft class; Mayfield & Darnold generally rate highest among previous draft classes.
  5. Losing guys who you thought were cornerstone pieces has always been part of the game. Hakeem Nicks, Trent Richardson, and Percy Harvin were all younger than Tyreek Hill is now when they had their last big season.
  6. Devin Singletary had 6 receptions and 4 dropped passes this year (source: PFF draft guide). 15 targets, 4 drops, 6 receptions, 36 yards. Small sample size, but yikes. On the plus side, he was better over his previous 2 seasons with a 22/180/0.5 per season receiving average (I don't know the number of drops).
  7. Looking through the PFF draft guide at their RB receiving grades: They love James Williams as a receiver. Among prominent backs, the ones that look like strong receivers are Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, Darrell Henderson, and David Montgomery. Other guys who have flashed some receiving ability are A.J. Ouellette, Kerrith Whyte, Darwin Thompson, Wesley Fields, Myles Gaskin, Jacques Patrick, and Qadree Ollison. Guys who had poor receiving grades include Mike Weber, Elijah Holyfield, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, and Devin Singletary. Although these grades are far from perfect at evaluating a RB's receiving chops. I suspect that they are heavily dependent on usage, which partially reflects skills and partially reflects the offensive scheme. And the guys with pretty good receiving grades probably includes RBs who were able to make things happen on dump-offs (which is less impressive) alongside RBs who showed some skill at running routes downfield & making difficult catches (which is more impressive).
  8. Bryce Callahan signs with Denver for 3 years, $21M ($7M/yr) according to Spotrac. Skrine signing looking even worse. Skrine's 3 year, $16.6M deal is only $4.4M total ($1.5M/yr) less than Callahan. Bears should've gone with Callahan, or gone way cheaper with someone like Brian Poole.
  9. Pro Football Focus has a free agent tracker which includes each player's 2018 PFF grade and number of snaps played. Pro Football Logic also has player ratings. I decided to throw together a formula using each of those numbers to estimate how much each FA should be worth. I made 2 estimates for each player, one based on his 2018 PFF grade and one based on his Pro Football Logic rating. On the whole these estimates line up reasonably well with the FA contracts that we've seen. Here are the 25 most overpaid players among this year's free agents in amount per year, where I credited each player with whichever estimate was more optimistic (so these are the guys that both PFF and PFLogic were down on): Salary Pos Player Team $13.5M/yr LB Kwon Alexander SF $22M/yr QB Nick Foles JAC $16.5M/yr EDGE Za'Darius Smith GB $14M/yr S Landon Collins WAS $13.8M/yr T Donovan Smith TB $12M/yr EDGE Dante Fowler Jr. LAR $7M/yr T Greg Robinson CLE $12.3M/yr DI Sheldon Richardson CLE $11.1M/yr C Mitch Morse BUF $16.5M/yr T Trent Brown OAK $7.3M/yr G Ty Nsekhe BUF $13.1M/yr HB Le'Veon Bell NYJ $7M/yr LB Preston Brown CIN $6.3M/yr G Jamon Brown ATL $7M/yr G Billy Turner GB $13.5M/yr LB Anthony Barr MIN $4.5M/yr T Seantrel Henderson HOU $6.3M/yr TE Tyler Kroft BUF $7.5M/yr CB Robert Alford ARI $4.5M/yr DI Jordan Phillips BUF $11M/yr WR Tyrell Williams OAK $4.8M/yr G Ty Sambrailo ATL $4M/yr G Jon Feliciano BUF $10M/yr WR Devin Funchess IND $5.5M/yr CB Buster Skrine CHI And here are the 20 most underpaid players in amount per year, where I credited each player with whichever estimate was more pessimistic (so these are the guys that both PFF & PFLogic liked): Salary Pos Player Team $13.3M/yr EDGE Brandon Graham PHI $8.5M/yr LB Jordan Hicks ARI $15.4M/yr EDGE Jadeveon Clowney HOU $3.5M/yr S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix CHI $5.3M/yr S Eric Weddle LAR $7.7M/yr EDGE Cameron Wake TEN $4.1M/yr G Ramon Foster PIT $2.5M/yr DI Steve McLendon NYJ $7.7M/yr T Bobby Massie CHI $1.6M/yr EDGE Brooks Reed ARI $3.8M/yr EDGE Lorenzo Alexander BUF $11M/yr CB Kareem Jackson DEN $6M/yr TE Nick Boyle BAL $9M/yr S Adrian Amos GB $8.4M/yr DI Henry Anderson NYJ $14M/yr CB Tyrann Mathieu KC $5.3M/yr LB Thomas Davis LAC $4.5M/yr WR Danny Amendola DET $15.2M/yr DI Grady Jarrett ATL $2M/yr HB Frank Gore BUF I have included franchise tagged players here. The lists leave out RFAs and guys who were traded and then signed a new contract, and maybe some others. Obviously NFL teams know some things that aren't incorporated into PFF or PFLogic ratings, and my method for turning those ratings into salary estimates is imperfect, and the thing I'm doing here will tend to underrate guys like Bell who missed time in 2018. But these at least seem reasonably plausible as lists of good & bad signings.
  10. The Browns gave up a 1st round pick and more for the right to pay Beckham over $15M per year. That's a pretty big commitment - no team has been willing to pay any RB, OG, C, TE, or S $15M/yr even when it didn't cost them any draft picks. Everyone besides the quarterback is fairly replaceable - we've seen guys like Brady, Manning, and Brees have success while the entire rest of the roster turned over. I don't think WR is especially replaceable. If you look at a great QB's career year, he usually had a strong receiving corps that year (Brady's 2007 was with Moss & Welker).
  11. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix signed for 1 year, $3.5M. Signed for $5.5M/yr less than Amos, and just a slight downgrade. For now it looks like the Bears won this safety swap.
  12. Ourlads has the complete list of QB mph up now (as well as separate max speeds for throws to the left and throws to the right): 59 Will Grier West Virginia 58 (Left) 59 (Right) 59 Brett Rypien Boise State 59 (Left) 56 (Right) 58 Clayton Thorson Northwestern 58 (Left) 56 (Right) 57 Nick Fitzgerald Mississippi State 57 (Left) 52 (Right) 56 Jordan Ta'amu Mississippi 56 (Left) 55 (Right) 55 Gardner Minshew Washington State 55 (Left) 53 (Right) 55 Ryan Finley North Carolina State 55 (Left) 52 (Right) 54 Tyree Jackson Buffalo 54 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Daniel Jones Duke 53 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Drew Lock Missouri 54 (Left) 53 (Right) 54 Easton Stick North Dakota State 53 (Left) 54 (Right) 54 Jake Browning Washington 54 (Left) 52 (Right) 53 Trace McSorley Penn State 53 (Left) 52 (Right) 53 Jarrett Stidham Auburn 53 (Left) 52 (Right) 52 Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 52 (Left) 52 (Right) 52 Kyle Shurmer Vanderbilt 52 (Left) 50 (Right) Haskins down at 52mph is a bad sign. They also have a slightly lower number for Finley than Rapoport does.
  13. When a team is thinking about whether to cut a player, the important number is the amount of new money that the player is owed this year. That was $9.5M for Berry and it's $3.75M for McKinnon. Cap hit is pretty much irrelevant because it's just about shuffling cap money between different years. If $4M that was going to count against the 2020 cap instead counts against the 2019 cap, that doesn't matter much (except in rare occasions).
  14. Offseason QB rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/19. Prev from 9/2/18. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Patrick Mahomes KC 24.0 (16) 2 2 Deshaun Watson HOU 24.0 (4) 2 3 Andrew Luck IND 30.0 (5) 2 4 Baker Mayfield CLE 24.4 (7) 3 5 Carson Wentz PHI 26.7 (2) 3 6 Jared Goff RAM 24.9 (11) 3 7 Aaron Rodgers GB 35.7 (3) 3 8 Russell Wilson SEA 30.8 (1) 3 9 Cam Newton CAR 30.3 (10) 3 10 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 25.0 (18) 3 11 Matt Ryan ATL 34.3 (17) 3 12 Jameis Winston TB 25.7 (9) 3 13 Lamar Jackson BAL 22.6 (19) 3 14 Drew Brees NO 40.6 (20) 3 15 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 27.8 (6) 3 16 Sam Darnold NYJ 22.2 (12) 3 17 Dak Prescott DAL 26.1 (13) 3 18 Josh Allen BUF 23.3 (24) 4 19 Tom Brady NE 42.1 (14) 4 20 Marcus Mariota TEN 25.8 (8) 4 21 Kirk Cousins MIN 31.0 (15) 4 22 Matthew Stafford DET 31.6 (21) 4 23 Philip Rivers LAC 37.7 (26) 4 24 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 37.5 (23) 4 25 Josh Rosen ARI 22.6 (22) 4 26 Andy Dalton CIN 31.8 (29) 4 27 Nick Foles JAX 30.6 (35) 4 28 Derek Carr OAK 28.4 (25) 5 29 Ryan Fitzpatrick 36.8 (49) 5 30 Blake Bortles 27.7 (33) 5 31 Tyrod Taylor 30.1 (27) 5 32 Alex Smith WAS 35.3 (30) 5 33 Ryan Tannehill 31.1 (31) 5 34 Teddy Bridgewater NO 26.8 (32) 5 35 Joe Flacco DEN 34.6 (42) 5 36 Nick Mullens SF 24.4 unr 5 37 Case Keenum WAS 31.5 (28) 5 38 Mason Rudolph PIT 24.1 (37) 6 39 Sam Bradford ARI 31.8 (34) 6 40 Kyle Lauletta NYG 24.5 (38) 6 41 Jacoby Brissett IND 26.7 (39) 6 42 DeShone Kizer GB 23.7 (40) 6 43 Eli Manning NYG 38.7 (41) 6 44 Colt McCoy WAS 33.0 unr 6 45 Mike White DAL 24.4 (43) 6 46 Sean Mannion RAM 27.4 unr 6 47 Taysom Hill 29.0 unr 6 48 Garrett Gilbert 28.2 unr 6 49 Robert Griffin III BAL 29.5 (44)
  15. It costs them $3.75M in new money to keep McKinnon this year. Seems like it's probably worth it. Or they could try to trade him if they're happy with a Coleman+Breida+Mostert depth chart.