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ZWK

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  1. Cutting David Johnson would only save $3.15M. That's $1.05M in roster bonuses that he's owed during this year, plus $2.1M of his 2021 contract that becomes guaranteed if he is on the roster March 19th. His $10.2M base salary for this year is fully guaranteed, so the only way to save that money would be to trade him. There is also $6M of signing bonus that he was paid that hasn't counted against cap yet, which by default will count $3M this year and $3M next year (but would accelerate to all count this year if they cut or trade him). His full 2021 salary is $9M (including roster bonuses), so if the $2.1M becomes guaranteed then they could still cut him after this year to save the other $6.9M.
  2. At this stage, the top 7 RBs by my formula are: Jonathan Taylor D'Andre Swift Ke'Shawn Vaughn Clyde Edwards-Helaire J.K. Dobbins Cam Akers Zack Moss My impression is that the conventional top 6 at this point is these guys minus Vaughn, so a lot of overlap at the top. My formula places Taylor & Swift a cut above the rest, with Taylor in the Guys I Like A Lot tier, Swift in the Guys I Like tier, and the other 5 in the Guys Who Have a Decent Chance tier. I had more to say about Taylor here - amazing as a runner, lots of questions about him as a receiver. I'm not in love with Swift as much as some people are but I guess he would be the first RB that I'd take if I had to draft now. Things could reshuffle somewhat as we get combine data and updated yards after contact numbers. Vaughn in particular is likely to drop a few spots because he is currently riding high primarily on his ridiculously good 2018 yards after contact numbers; he wasn't as good this year but that's not in my formula yet. The next 10 guys by my formula are Antonio Gibson*, Lynn Bowden Jr.*, AJ Dillon, Darrynton Evans, Malcolm Perry*, Javon Leake, Benny LeMay, Michael Warren, Xavier Jones, and Eno Benjamin. Gibson & Bowden have numbers that would also put them on the Guys Who Have a Decent Chance tier behind Moss, but they (and Perry) also have asterisks since they didn't play RB this year. And a guy's numbers when he's playing WR but occasionally lining up in the backfield (like Gibson) or playing option QB (like Bowden & Perry) aren't necessarily directly comparable to RB production numbers which my formula is based on. The others don't make the Decent Chance tier at this point, but we'll have more information in a couple weeks.
  3. Antonio Gibson is another guy in this category. He mostly played WR in college, with 834 receiving yards and 369 rushing yards in his 2 years at Memphis (with almost all of that production coming this year). Before that, he had 871 receiving yards and 279 rushing yards in his 2 years at East Central Community College, and 1604 receiving yards and 940 rushing yards in his last 2 years of high school. He was a genuine receiver at Memphis, running all sorts of routes and not just underneath catch-and-run stuff. But he is entering the draft as a RB, that's where he played during the Senior Bowl, and he has RB size (6'0.5" 223 lbs. at the Senior Bowl). So he's another guy to watch as a potential receiving back.
  4. There's an interesting late breakout crew at WR: Brandon Aiyuk, Omar Bayless, and Devin Duvernay. You could also maybe include Michael Pittman Jr., although he was less of an extreme late breakout. Aiyuk and Bayless both had huge seasons this year (as I mentioned earlier), with over 11 YPT, and over 40% of their team's passing yardage and TDs. They're also both in the two-year 10 YPT club. Bayless leapfrogged Kirk Merritt to be Arkansas State's top receiver this year, while Aiyuk stepped up and outproduced last year's top Arizona State WR first rounder N'Keal harry. Duvernay and Pittman both had very solid seasons (as you can see from the lists I posted earlier), Duvernay moreso with 10.7 YPT and 37% of Texas's receiving yards. Duvernay leapfrogged Collin Johnson to be Texas's top receiver this year, while Pittman has held off Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns to be USC's top receiver each of the past 2 years. They stand out even more for their physical attributes. Duvernay is a track star with the fastest 100m time that I know of for any player in this draft class, and a leading contender to have the fastest 40 time at the combine. Pittman has good size, weighing in at 6' 3 7/8", 219 lbs. at this year's senior bowl. The big negative on all 4 of these guys is breakout age. Aiyuk broke out just this year as a 21-year-old senior after spending 2 years in junior college and then not doing much as a junior. Bayless was a 5th year senior this year, turned 23 just before his last game, and had previously maxed out at 566 receiving yards. Duvernay was a 22-year-old 4th year senior who had maxed out at 546 receiving yards (probably, there's still some uncertainty about his birthdate). Pittman broke out in 2018 as USC's leading receiver and a top 50 college receiver by my numbers, but he was already 21 years old that year. So these guys all fail the "breakout age" test that has attracted a lot of attention lately; for some people that puts them on the "avoid" list. My WR rating formula doesn't take breakout age into account and likes these 4 WRs pretty well. My ratings do take current age into account, but only as a slight downgrade for older receivers. If a receiver had at least one big season, and seems to have NFL-caliber size/speed, then my formula will like him. Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score does something in between, and rewards WRs a lot for leaving school early. I haven't looked that closely these different ways of doing age adjustments. I might try looking a little more closely this offseason. My guess is that ruling guys out for a late breakout age is a mistake, but my formula probably doesn't penalize them enough for it.
  5. The Packers traded Tobin Rote to the Lions after he led the NFL in passing yards & touchdowns. Rote proceeded to lead the Lions to an NFL title over the Browns.
  6. Low BMI is generally a bad sign for WRs. For example, out of the 48 successful WRs who entered the NFL since 2006 and have accumulated at least 150 career VBD so far, only 4 had a BMI below 26.0 (DeSean Jackson, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, and AJ Green). More data on this here and here. I generally don't believe in sharp cutoffs - the lower the BMI the more concerning it is, and having a BMI a bit above 26.0 doesn't make a receiver completely free of these concerns. Here are WRs who weighed in with a BMI below 26.5 at the Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, or NFLPA Collegiate Bowl. 24.32 John Hightower 24.45 Darnell Mooney 25.64 Van Jefferson 25.70 Collin Johnson 25.75 Jauan Jennings 25.92 Denzel Mims 26.04 K.J. Hill 26.39 Dezmon Patmon Here are WRs who we don't have size measurements for yet who are at risk for weighing in with low BMI according to draftscout estimates. 24.81? KJ Hamler 25.19? CeeDee Lamb 25.20? Trishton Jackson 25.32? Quez Watkins 25.33? Justin Jefferson 25.37? Isaiah Hodgins 25.68? Tyler Johnson 25.77? Henry Ruggs III 26.04? Jerry Jeudy There are some big names on this list. We'll see how their combine weighins go. Low BMI seems to be somewhat less of a concern for superfast WRs, based on the example of DJax and a few other WRs who didn't quite make the cut for my list earlier (John Brown who hasn't hit 150 career VBD, Emmanuel Sanders who had a 26.03 BMI, DJ Chark who is still far from 150 VBD). So maybe less of a concern for Ruggs & Hamler.
  7. College players have a listed height and weight which is information that I think is put out by their team, and then at the combine or their pro day they get weighed on a scale and measured using a ruler and those numbers get tracked on various sites including draftscout (and PFR, although they just give heights rounded to the nearest inch), and then in the NFL players have a listed height and weight which is information that I think is put out by their team or the NFL. I almost always look at combine (or other pre-draft) measurements when I'm interested in player sizes, since those are the one set of numbers we have which are definitely based on actual measurements. And also because we usually care about player size when we're trying to project what will happen with a player who is entering the NFL, and the combine measurements of past players are what's most directly comparable to the information that we have about this current prospect.
  8. I have Sanders entering the NFL at 26.03 BMI. Here are my BMI numbers (and other numbers) for successful NFL WRs.
  9. I would take a mid 2nd over Campbell. In the mid 2nd you're getting a player whose value is similar to what Campbell's was coming into the league (at least after Luck was gone). And Campbell's value should have gone down over the past year given how little he did as a rookie.
  10. I'd like to see Washington one-up the Cardinals. Draft Tua. Keep Haskins. Start Haskins this year. In a year or two they can trade whichever one is worse. Having a good QB is important. It can be worth taking multiple shots at the position at the same time. Perhaps Washington understands this.
  11. I used to do my own charting, but these days I just rely on PFF's elusiveness numbers. PFF has mentioned their YAC & MT numbers for several RBs in this class scattered across a bunch of places. At the end of the month they're supposed to publish their updated draft guide which should have every RB's numbers, so I'm mostly waiting on that before trying to sort through them. Zack Moss's elusiveness numbers at that link (and in travdogg's post) are excellent.
  12. I am not at all worried about Taylor's college workload. A high workload is an indicator of a bunch of good things. It's a sign that the coaches wanted him on the field and trusted his durability, and that he had good enough conditioning & durability to stay on the field. A high workload probably also increases a player's chances of getting injured. But I think most of that risk is immediate - each carry is an additional chance to get injured, and carries while worn out late in a high-workload game probably involve a higher risk of getting injured. Since he didn't get hurt at the time, that risk has mostly passed. There is maybe a little extra long-term injury risk from wear-and-tear, but when making predictions about a player's future injury risk the "evidence of durability" is more important.
  13. Jonathan Taylor has an amazing profile as a runner, with size, speed, volume, efficiency, elusiveness, health, and awards. The one area where he's had problems as a runner is fumbles, which is a concern but a relatively minor one. The bigger negative for him as a player is receiving. His 252 receiving yards at 6.5 YPT this year aren't great, but more concerning are his 8 career dropped passes to go along with his 42 career receptions, a 16% drop rate. It is possible for a RB to put up big numbers in the NFL without doing much in the passing game (see Derrick Henry), and it's possible that Taylor could improve as a receiver (or already has improved - I don't know which seasons his drops are from), but those are both pretty big challenges. My RB formula has him as the #1 RB and a very strong prospect, but before I draft him there I want to get a better sense of his potential as a receiver. In PPR leagues I'm really not excited about taking a RB who doesn't catch passes at the top of the draft.
  14. With 17 votes in according to the poll (although only 15 actual votes in most of the polls), there is a pretty clear consensus top 3 of Ruggs, then Reagor, and then Hamler. If we give 3 points for each 1st place vote, 2 for each 2nd place vote, and 1 for each 3rd place vote, the score is: 39 Henry Ruggs III 23 Jalen Reagor 11 K.J. Hamler Eight other WRs each have 1-2 votes for 1-4 points.
  15. Is Hamler that fast? I had noticed him being mocked to the Vikings and my first impression was a gut punch. I mean he has ham and egger right in his name. But if he is that fast I guess it makes sense. Hamler ran a 10.78 100m and was clocked at 21.1 mph on this play, both of which are very good (but not totally gamebreaking) speed. My guess is 4.40ish.