ZWK

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  1. Crowder has totaled 25/235/1 on 41 targets over his past 8 games.
  2. Or maybe I'm okay with having Marcedes Lewis. 0/0/0, 0/0/0, 4/62/3.
  3. Between Fuller & Taylor.
  4. Ross > Fuller > Taylor > Higgins and none of the comparisons are close. Draft position is strongly predictive of NFL success, especially when you're looking at guys in their first year or two who haven't done much yet. Why would you give up on a top 10 NFL pick 2 weeks into his NFL career?
  5. I wish they had "per route run" stats instead of "per target" stats. If he struggles to get open against fast corners, then I'd mainly expect to see a drop in targets since the QB mostly won't throw to him if he isn't open. And with great underneath receivers like Landry and Edelman I mainly expect to see them get lots of targets since they get open so regularly; I don't expect to see them have an especially high "fpts per target". So the fact that Cooks is only 20th out of 51 in fpts per target (excluding deep routes) doesn't tell me much.
  6. The average starting college RB gets about 0.35 (first downs + touchdowns + 20-yarders) per carry. Here is how the career stats for 30 RBs look on that stat (including my top 13, in bold): FD+TD+20/att 0.60 J.K. Dobbins (55 att) 0.48 Ty Johnson (162 att) 0.47 Derrius Guice (291 att) 0.47 Rashaad Penny (270 att) 0.45 Damarea Crockett (199 att) 0.44 Bo Scarbrough (176 att) 0.43 Bryce Love (183 att) 0.43 Mike Weber (189 att) 0.41 Nick Chubb (579 att) 0.40 John Kelly (194 att) 0.40 Royce Freeman (785 att) 0.40 Ray Lawry (533 att) 0.39 Josh Adams (330 att) 0.39 Saquon Barkley (492 att) 0.38 Ronald Jones II (389 att) 0.37 Damien Harris (218 att) 0.37 Trayveon Williams (189 att) 0.36 Akrum Wadley (344 att) 0.35 Benjamin Snell, Jr. (257 att) 0.35 Myles Gaskin (488 att) 0.35 AVERAGE RB 0.35 James Butler (644 att) 0.34 Jarvion Franklin (735 att) 0.34 Aeris Williams (225 att) 0.33 Lavon Coleman (309 att) 0.33 Ito Smith (632 att) 0.32 Kerryon Johnson (250 att) 0.32 Phillip Lindsay (534 att) 0.31 Kyle Hicks (328 att) 0.31 David Montgomery (165 att) 0.30 Kalen Ballage (342 att) This isn't the only stat that I look at, but it goes pretty far towards explaining which guys didn't make the top 13. (It's easier to put up extreme efficiency numbers on a smaller number of attempts, which is part of the reason why the guys at the top of my RB rankings are mostly the ones who are solidly above average at this over a large number of attempts rather than the ones with more extreme scores here on a smaller workload.)
  7. Kalen Ballage, Mike Weber, Trayveon Williams, and Myles Gaskin are part of the next batch of players. Aeris Williams and Akrum Wadley are farther down the rankings. There is a lot of football left to play, and I don't have elusiveness data on most of these guys (plus I'm missing size/speed data on a lot of them too), so I wouldn't read too much into these rankings.
  8. Here are the top 13 RB prospects, three games into the season, according to my formula: Saquon Barkley Penn State Royce Freeman Oregon Nick Chubb Georgia Derrius Guice LSU J.K. Dobbins Ohio State Rashaad Penny SDSU John Kelly Tennessee Bryce Love Stanford Josh Adams Notre Dame Damarea Crockett Missouri David Montgomery Iowa State Ty Johnson Maryland Ronald Jones II USC This includes production (and workload) from previous years as well as this year, estimated size & speed, age, and elusiveness ratings for the guys that I've watched videos of and from PFF's 2016 stats. Chubb & Freeman get the largest boosts from the elusiveness stats, in large part because I've watched more videos of them than of any of the other guys (so the other guys haven't had the opportunity yet to get much of a boost or decline). If I was drafting now I'd put them behind Guice, but this is what my formula is giving me right now. Barkley and Kelly are both off to great starts in the receiving game. Barkley has 4 40+ yard receptions, which is tied with Mississippi WR A.J. Brown for the most in college football. nfldraftscout has Bryce Love estimated at 181 pounds and Ronald Jones at 195, which hurts their ratings. Ty Johnson has ridiculously good efficiency stats on 17 carries this year, but I've built enough regression to the mean in the formulas so that he is mostly on this list due to his 2016 production.
  9. This post would be better with a poll. Although I guess HairySasquatch is benefiting from the lack of a poll.
  10. Raymont Harris > Rashaan Salaam Not the flashiest guy, but he'd get you positive yardage pretty much every time and he hung onto the football.
  11. Because you have 9 guys on your team. You just need a couple of them to go off each week. Let's say that your 5 RB/WRs are all just like Cooks; over a 5-week period they'll be all over the place just like this. So you have something like: Cooks: 27, 7, 2, 3, 23 RB1: 23, 2, 7, 27, 3 RB2: 3, 7, 23, 27, 2 WR2: 2, 7, 23, 3, 27 WR3: 3, 23, 7, 27, 2 Total: 58, 62, 67, 87, 36 That's 1 terrible week out of 5 (where only one of the five players went off), 1 big week (where 3 went off), and 3 solid weeks. Each of these players averaged 12.4 ppg, and if you replaced them with superconsistent players who scored 11 points each week then you would do worse in 4 weeks out of 5. This example was randomly generated, by randomly shuffling Cooks's 5 games for each of the other 4 players. Repeating 5 more times, here's what I get for the team's weekly totals in each run: Run2: 47, 79, 65, 42, 77 Run3: 78, 82, 75, 42, 33 Run4: 66, 78, 87, 39, 40 Run5: 51, 127, 62, 13, 57 Run6: 82, 56, 67, 63, 42 Some more extreme weeks in there (you're going to win that 127-point week and lose that 13-point week). But in 17 out of 25 weeks you'd do better than the superconsistent team where every player scores exactly 11 points each game. (BTW, check out the all-play record of your high-scoring 7-6 team. I bet it was better than your 54% winning percentage, and that you mostly just had bad luck in terms of happening to play lots of your opponents when they had a good week.)
  12. The Lions have run 13 red zone plays so far. 4 have gone to Abdullah (from the 4, 8, 14, 14), 4 have gone to Washington (from the 7, 10, 10, 11), 1 has gone to Riddick (from the 7), and 4 have gone to non-RBs (from the 6, 7, 10, 19). 1-10-ARI 19(7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate to ARI 13 for 6 yards (56-K.Dansby). 2-4-ARI 13(6:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah right tackle to ARI 10 for 3 yards (43-H.Reddick). 3-1-ARI 10(5:50) 79-A.Barrett reported in as eligible. 36-D.Washington right end to ARI 4 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick). 1-4-ARI 4(5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah left tackle to ARI 6 for -2 yards (55-C.Jones). 2-6-ARI 6(4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1-10-ARI 10(3:52) (Shotgun) 36-D.Washington left tackle to ARI 7 for 3 yards (97-J.Mauro). 2-7-ARI 7(3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-T.Riddick for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1-10-ARI 14(11:03) (No Huddle) 21-A.Abdullah left end to ARI 13 for 1 yard (27-T.Branch). PENALTY on ARI-98-C.Peters, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 13. 1-8-ARI 8(10:18) (Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah right end to ARI 10 for -2 yards (43-H.Reddick; 92-F.Rucker). 2-10-ARI 10(9:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 1-10-NYG 11(10:17) 36-D.Washington right tackle to NYG 7 for 4 yards (24-E.Apple, 98-D.Harrison). 2-6-NYG 7(9:35) 36-D.Washington up the middle to NYG 7 for no gain (21-L.Collins). 3-6-NYG 7(8:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  13. Hunt and Witten are leading my squad to a nice start (204 & 190), with Ertz & the Lions D also making big contributions. TE looks to be my strongest position, with all 4 flex starts coming from there. Biggest concern is RB where DJ is out and I only have Hunt, Bell, and Smallwood left. I wish I'd spent that last $2 on Buck Allen instead of Marcedes Lewis.
  14. The Falcons offense continues to look really good and they have Freeman signed long-term. He scores touchdowns, he catches passes, he gets a bunch of carries. Coming off back-to-back seasons as a top 8 fantasy RB and this year looks like more of the same. What do you expect to change? Gordon: the Chargers seem pretty satisfied with him, given that they decided not to add anyone besides Ekeler. The draft pedigree, plus the production (including in the red zone and the receiving game), plus the team showing that level of trust in him makes for a pretty promising combination. Low YPC is a bit of a concern but the OL has had troubles (as JWB has reminded us when we discuss quarterbacks) and this year the majority of his carries were against Denver. Compared to Freeman there are more questions about his talent, and more uncertainty / potential instability in his situation (midway through his rookie contract, with a QB who is turning 36), but it still seems like he should be up there. Perine: he doesn't offer much in the passing game, and he didn't look particularly good this weekend when Kelley's injury got him carries. Martin: He is 4 years older than most of those guys (just 2 years older than Gillislee), and was going behind most of them in redraft. I do like him as a high-upside option for this season, but the clock is ticking and if he puts together a string of good seasons now that will be a career first.
  15. 2 weeks into the season, another RB update. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 9/3/17. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 25.5 (2) 2 2 David Johnson ARI 25.7 (1) 2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 22.1 (3) 3 4 Leonard Fournette JAX 22.6 (5) 3 5 Todd Gurley RAM 23.1 (4) 3 6 Devonta Freeman ATL 25.5 (7) 3 7 Christian McCaffrey CAR 21.2 (6) 3 8 Melvin Gordon LAC 24.4 (8) 4 9 Joe Mixon CIN 21.1 (9) 4 10 Jay Ajayi MIA 24.2 (10) 4 11 Kareem Hunt KC 22.1 (18) 4 12 Dalvin Cook MIN 22.1 (12) 5 13 Derrick Henry TEN 23.1 (15) 5 14 Carlos Hyde SF 25.9 (14) 5 15 Jordan Howard CHI 22.8 (11) 5 16 Alvin Kamara NO 22.1 (13) 5 17 LeSean McCoy BUF 29.1 (16) 5 18 Ameer Abdullah DET 24.2 (17) 6 19 C.J. Anderson DEN 26.6 (23) 6 20 Lamar Miller HOU 26.4 (19) 6 21 Isaiah Crowell CLE 24.6 (22) 6 22 Ty Montgomery GB 24.6 (26) 6 23 Tevin Coleman ATL 24.4 (20) 6 24 Mike Gillislee NE 26.8 (29) 6 25 Doug Martin TB 28.6 (25) 7 26 DeMarco Murray TEN 29.5 (21) 7 27 Mark Ingram NO 27.7 (24) 7 28 C.J. Prosise SEA 23.3 (27) 7 29 Rob Kelley WAS 24.9 (40) 7 30 Marlon Mack IND 21.7 (31) 7 31 D'Onta Foreman HOU 21.4 (37) 7 32 Theo Riddick DET 26.3 (28) 7 33 Tarik Cohen CHI 22.1 (57) 7 34 Chris Carson SEA 23.0 (59) 7 35 James White NE 25.6 (44) 7 36 Marshawn Lynch OAK 31.4 (45) 7 37 Paul Perkins NYG 22.8 (33) 7 38 Duke Johnson CLE 23.9 (34) 7 39 Thomas Rawls SEA 24.1 (39) 7 40 Spencer Ware KC 25.8 (30) 7 41 Giovani Bernard CIN 25.8 (35) 7 42 Jeremy Hill CIN 24.9 (36) 7 43 Samaje Perine WAS 22.0 (38) 7 44 Jamaal Charles DEN 30.7 (47) 7 45 Bilal Powell NYJ 28.8 (32) 7 46 Terrance West BAL 26.6 (43) 8 47 Danny Woodhead BAL 32.7 (46) 8 48 Jamaal Williams GB 22.4 (48) 8 49 James Conner PIT 22.3 (51) 8 50 Eddie Lacy SEA 27.2 (41) 8 51 Rex Burkhead NE 27.2 (42) 8 52 Chris Thompson WAS 26.9 (77) 8 53 Frank Gore IND 34.3 (56) 8 54 Dion Lewis NE 26.9 (49) 8 55 Latavius Murray MIN 26.5 (50) 8 56 Javorius Allen BAL 26.0 (68) 8 57 Wayne Gallman NYG 22.9 (52) 8 58 Kenneth Dixon BAL 23.6 (53) 8 59 Adrian Peterson NO 32.4 (54) 8 60 T.J. Yeldon JAX 23.9 (55) 8 61 DeAngelo Henderson DEN 24.8 (58) 8 62 Jonathan Stewart CAR 30.4 (60) 8 63 Matt Breida SF 22.5 (62) 8 64 Jerick McKinnon MIN 25.3 (65) 8 65 Kenyan Drake MIA 23.6 (63) 8 66 Matt Forte NYJ 31.7 (64) 8 67 Aaron Jones GB 22.7 (66) 8 68 Wendell Smallwood PHI 23.6 (61) 8 69 Devontae Booker DEN 25.3 (67) 8 70 Jalen Richard OAK 23.9 (76) 8 71 Shane Vereen NYG 28.5 (71) 9 72 Elijah McGuire NYJ 23.3 (73) 9 73 Charles Sims TB 27.0 (74) 9 74 DeAndre Washington OAK 24.5 (75) 9 75 Darren Sproles PHI 34.2 (78) 9 76 Jacquizz Rodgers TB 27.6 (79) 9 77 Chris Johnson ARI 31.9 unr 9 78 LeGarrette Blount PHI 30.7 (70) 9 79 Charcandrick West KC 26.3 (80) 9 80 Alfred Morris DAL 28.7 (86) 9 81 Malcolm Brown RAM 24.3 (81) 9 82 Darren McFadden DAL 30.0 (69) 9 83 Brian Hill ATL 21.8 (82) 9 84 Devante Mays GB 23.3 (85) 9 85 Austin Ekeler LAC 22.3 unr 9 86 Kerwynn Williams ARI 26.2 (90) 9 87 Chris Ivory JAX 29.4 (88) 9 88 Dwayne Washington DET 23.4 (102) 9 89 Alex Collins BAL 23.0 unr 9 90 Jonathan Williams 23.6 (89) 9 91 Robert Turbin IND 27.7 (87) 9 92 Donnel Pumphrey PHI 22.7 (83) 9 93 Joe Williams SF 24.0 (91) 9 94 Zach Zenner DET 26.0 (84) 9 95 Andre Ellington ARI 28.6 (93) 10 96 Benny Cunningham CHI 27.2 (94) 10 97 Tyler Ervin HOU 23.9 (95) 10 98 T.J. Logan ARI 23.0 (98) 10 99 Matt Jones 24.5 (72) 10 100 Ryan Mathews 29.9 (92) 10 101 DeAngelo Williams 34.4 (96) 10 102 Rashad Jennings 32.4 (97) 10 103 Karlos Williams 24.3 (99) 10 104 Christine Michael 26.8 (100) 10 105 Elijah Hood 21.4 (101) 10 106 Alfred Blue HOU 26.3 (103) 10 107 Lance Dunbar RAM 27.6 (104) There's a new tier near the top; if I knew that David Johnson would be back for the fantasy playoffs then he'd be on Bell's tier (and if I knew that Zeke wasn't going to have any new off-the-field incidents then he'd be there too). Kareem Hunt's impressive start vaults him up to the Mixon/Ajayi/Cook tier. Ranking those 4 guys is a tough call. Howard falls off that tier with 2 rough games; you might blame his situation but 1) his situation is likely to stay bad this year with competition from Cohen & that shaky oline/offense and 2) this shows how situation-dependent he is, especially with his lack of passing game role. He also moves behind Henry & Hyde, who are looking good so far. Kamara & Abdullah don't have big fantasy totals but I am pretty happy with their workloads. By tier 6, players' redraft value starts to matter a lot. Moving up: Anderson, Montgomery, Kelley, Lynch. Moving down: Ingram, Murray, Perkins, Powell. The NE backfield is clarifying. The BAL backfield is muddying. Carson & Cohen are emerging but it's unclear if they'll be more than borderline fantasy starters or how long they'll stick around. In the bottom half of the rankings I probably haven't changed things as much as I should. Austin Ekeler joins the rankings and Chris Johnson & Alex Collins return.