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ZWK

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  1. A few tactics: spread your rest days throughout the season so that your team is always close to 100% / doesn't have to go too deep into the backups (e.g. never more than 1 OL at a time) rest your starters when you're playing a good team, because you were probably going to lose that game anyways rest your best players when you're playing bad teams so that you still have a good chance of winning rest your starters the last week of the season, so you're fresh for the playoffs (if you make it) rest players when your opponent is also resting players, to keep things balanced rest individual players when they're mildly injured to let them recover (good call on this one, @Penguin) never rest players during divisional games Option #2 seems like a good strategy (if you're going to be 8 point underdogs @KC then you might as well tank the game) and pretty disastrous for the product that the NFL is putting on the field. Real fun to watch, that exciting Chiefs team going up against a bunch of scrubs again this week. And what a historic team, going 16-2 (5-2 against starting quarterbacks, 11-0 against backups).
  2. I like the trade for you. Mack doesn't catch enough passes for PPR.
  3. I'm pretty high on Boyd. Some numbers that I posted in another thread:
  4. The obvious data to check are cases where a team had clear #1 and #2 RBs, and the #2 RB missed some games. Looking at last year, the 3 examples that seem closest: Kamara averaged 22.8 touches per game weeks 1-4 while Ingram was out and 16.7 touches per game weeks 5-16 after Ingram came back. So, a drop of 6 touches per game. Mixon averaged 20 touches per game weeks 5-8 while Gio was out and 20 touches per game the other 10 games he played with Gio. So, no change. Kenyan Drake averaged 13 touches per game weeks 16-17 while Gore was out and 10.5 touches per game over the first 14 games which he played with Gore. So, a drop of 2.5 touches per game. So on average that's a drop of 2.8 touches per game (a 15% drop in touches) when upgrading to an Ingram/Gio/Gore caliber backup instead of a Gillislee/Walton/Ballage caliber backup, with a small sample size and a lot of variation between the different cases.
  5. My formulas are not based on linear regression. I basically take a weighted average of a bunch of variables, and I make up weights that seem plausible to me rather than pulling them out of a best fit to historical data. I also sometimes transform variables, e.g. turning RB height, weight, and BMI into a single number that represents how good or bad the RB's size is. Football Outsiders does use linear regression to create their prediction formulas. I have written about some of the pros and cons of their method vs. mine here. The basic problem is that it takes lots of data points for regression to work well, especially when there are other things going on like many predictor variables that are correlated with each other. And what do you do when a stat like drop rate wasn't even recorded until recently? I think that there are fancier statistical methods which are better than regression for the thing we're trying to do, e.g. Bayesian multilevel modeling. But I haven't learned the stats well enough to actually use them, and I don't know if they deal well with all the issues. I think that some of the intuitive/subjective aspects of my approach are basically mimicking things that are done more systematically by fancier statistical methods.
  6. Picks. I expect there to be a few guys in next year's class who are worth two Miles Sanderses, and if you miss out on them you'll still probably land someone who is worth about one Miles Sanders. 1st. Superflex & the recent news make it even more lopsided.. 1.4 + 2nd. Pretty good chance that Montgomery would fall to you at 1.4 (behind Harry, Sanders, Haskins, or whoever), and if he didn't you could probably move 1.4 for something nice when you're on the clock. Having multiple top 20 picks is not a good reason to give one away.
  7. Not that rare. Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marion Barber, Ahmad Bradshaw, Joseph Addai, CJ Spiller, Rashard Mendenhall, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris. Some of those guys don't have that great a reputation compared to how we think of Freeman, but part of that is because of how little they did at age 27+ (and they were more highly thought of at age 25 or whatever). There are also guys like Emmitt Smith who continued to be good runners at 27+, but not on the same level that they were when younger. Emmitt had 5 straight seasons with 1820+ YFS at ages 22-26, and never came within 300 yards of that at ages 27+. Freeman has less talent to spare, so if he has taken a step down then he's not going to be worth a 3rd round fantasy pick.
  8. Not that rare. Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marion Barber, Ahmad Bradshaw, Joseph Addai, CJ Spiller, Rashard Mendenhall, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris. Some of those guys don't have that great a reputation compared to how we think of Freeman, but part of that is because of how little they did at age 27+ (and they were more highly thought of at age 25 or whatever).
  9. I like him in best ball leagues, or in dynasty leagues where I'm thin at RB, or in deeper leagues where there are 30+ RBs starting each week. Less worth going after in standard redraft leagues, although at some point in the draft he becomes a value.
  10. Agreed that he's a nice value - I posted some things about that last offseason and this offseason in another thread. 2 main factors in his favor: 1st round TEs have historically had a pretty strong track record, and good TEs usually show something in their 2nd season. That gives reason to think that he had reasonably good odds coming into the league, and his unimpressive rookie year doesn't hurt his chances that much, and you won't have to wait on him forever (if he doesn't show more this year then it'll be pretty safe to move on).
  11. Looks like it was 11.5 touches per game over the final 8 games - 77 carries and 15 receptions. That gave him 39% of the 3-man workload, with 92 touches for JJ, 95 for DH, and 51 for NH.
  12. FBG (Subscribers): Pick-a-Player: Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones, or Marlon Mack: Footballguys staff and Facebook answer a dilemma at the 3.06 spot Freeman got the most votes. I'd give Jones the edge over him among those RBs, but really I'd go WR there (Diggs, Green, or Edelman). The big concern with Freeman is that he might be in decline. He missed most of last year with multiple injuries, and he wasn't that great when he was on the field (though it's a small sample size). And I have a rule of thumb to not be confident in RBs bouncing back after a down year. Second concern is RB committee. The Falcons' limited Coleman's workload last year, giving Ito Smith a bunch of work, and they might do something similar this year with Freeman. Before that, Freeman's share of the Freeman-Coleman backfield shrunk each year, from a dominant share in 2015 to a 1a-1b thing in 2017. Part of that was Coleman earning the snaps, but it's not clear that he'll jump back to a large workload ahead of Ito Smith. For PPR, it seems concerning that his receptions fell more than his carries (especially since Smith is more of a receiving back).
  13. FBG (Subscribers): Pick-a-Player: Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones, or Marlon Mack: Footballguys staff and Facebook answer a dilemma at the 3.06 spot Freeman gets the most votes. I'd take Jones out of the RBs, but really I'd go WR there (Diggs, Green, or Edelman).
  14. I dunno. I was just repeating what Adam said.
  15. Having lots of flex spots makes positional scarcity less of an issue and total scoring more important. In PPR leagues it mostly helps WRs. In non-PPR it would help RBs. It probably also reduces TE value relative to RB/WR (unless it's TE premium). It also gives you more freedom to zag when the rest of your league zigs. If the rest of your league is RB crazy then you can mainly stock up on WRs - you just need to be able to field one RB starter.