ZWK

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  1. Going to Baltimore would be bad news for his value. He is unlikely to be his team's WR1, so his main shot at fantasy value comes from playing with an elite passing offense. And Brees & the Saints have a bit of an edge on Flacco & the Ravens there. Although I guess there's a little bit of hope of Flacco throwing him tons of dumpoffs over the middle, especially if they don't add a TE.
  2. Lasley did have much bigger numbers than his teammates (and better YPT) - you can see the comparison here. And he also put up big production for the twoish games when Rosen was out and Devon Modster was in at QB, like in their bowl game. So the Rosen factor doesn't explain away Lasley's production, even though having a first round QB for most of his games presumably helped at least a bit.
  3. Extremely effective this year as a deep threat. Amazing per game production. Smallish sample size due to missed games, and he did have Rosen throwing him the ball. Average size/athleticism. Tons of dropped passes. A bunch of off-the-field issues. Generally seen as a day 3 prospect. Boom/bust profile and character issues suggest he's a better fantasy prospect than NFL prospect. Reasonably likely that we'll have a better sense of his NFL prospects by the start of the season, and maybe sooner, which makes him more churnable and thus more worth owning.
  4. Wasn't it a late second quarter ejection? If we count the season as 15.5 games then it was still his lowest ypg. Also worth noting that his previous low of 70 ypg was as a rookie and he had been over 80 ypg in every season since then. Greg Jennings had his last big season at age 28. Marques Colston at 29. Calvin Johnson at 30. Torry Holt, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Johnson at 31. Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at 32. Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward at 33. Larry Fitzgerald at 34 (and counting). Steve Smith at 36. Many of these ages would be earlier if we looked at last huge season - Steve Smith's last huge season was at age 32, Moss's at age 30, Chad Johnson's at 29, Calvin's at 28, Boldin's at 26. So this would be earlyish for Green to decline, but still within the typical distribution, especially if it's only a partial decline (with a couple more years left similar to his 2017).
  5. In 2017 Green had the lowest yards per game of his career (67 ypg, when his previous low was 70 ypg and his previous average was 83 ypg), and also the lowest yards per target of his career (7.5 ypt, when his previous low was 8.0 ypt and his previous average was 8.9 ypt). He turns 30 in July. How worried should we be?
  6. Ridley didn't exactly dominate defenses his first 2 seasons, at least not statistically. Over the 2015-16 seasons, Alabama actually had a lower YPT when throwing to Ridley (7.7 YPT) than when throwing elsewhere (8.1 YPT). Over those 2 years, Ridley accounted for 29.3% of Alabama's targets, 28.5% of their receptions, 28.4% of their receiving yards, 31.3% of their receiving TDs, and 29.2% of their successful passing plays.
  7. 3 cone was 7.02 according to nfldraftscout. Still good, but not quite as good. Would've been the 4th best at the combine, behind Gesicki, Samuels, and Schultz.
  8. From Matt Harmon's charting data on 11 WR prospects (behind a paywall), Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller are the two WRs who got double covered most often last year. Over the past 3 draft classes, the most frequently double covered WRs are John Ross, Taywan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, and Anthony Miller (list continued here).
  9. There's a new one just posted of him vs LSU.
  10. Next Gen Stats has data on the 20 fastest speeds reached by ballcarriers each week. Devontae Booker is one of the RBs who never cracked the top 20 over the past 2 seasons. Seems like a bad sign, especially after looking over most of the other names that didn't crack the weekly top 20.
  11. Next Gen Stats has data on the 20 fastest speeds reached by ballcarriers each week. CJ Anderson and Devontae Booker are two of the RBs who never cracked the top 20 over the past 2 seasons. The other players who never cracked the top 20 are mostly not very good (with one big exception). More here.
  12. Continuing the look at Next Gen Stats player speeds, here are all the RBs with 80+ adjusted touches who never made the weekly top 20 fastest ballcarriers list in the 2016 or 2017 regular seasons. (A reception counts as 1 "adjusted touch", a carry counts as half an "adjusted touch", and a kick or punt return counts as 2 "adjusted touches", because rushing attempts are least likely to involve an opportunity to reach a high speed in open field and returns are most likely.) Touch Player 451 Le'Veon Bell 251 LeGarrette Blount 246.5 Duke Johnson 221.5 C.J. Anderson 215.5 Devontae Booker 164 Doug Martin 161 James White 154 Kerwynn Williams 152 Terrance West 140.5 Jacquizz Rodgers 140 Spencer Ware 137.5 Ameer Abdullah 135 DeAndre Washington 133 Robert Kelley 130 Javorius Allen 130 Rex Burkhead 125.5 Rashad Jennings 123.5 Marshawn Lynch 121.5 Tyler Ervin 113.5 Samaje Perine 112 Charcandrick West 112 Shane Vereen 110.5 Adrian Peterson 99 Charles Sims 98 Andre Ellington 94.5 Tim Hightower 94.5 Matt Asiata 90.5 Ryan Mathews 89.5 Wayne Gallman 89.5 Travaris Cadet 88 Bobby Rainey 80 Eddie Lacy This is mostly a mix of big slow backs (Blount, Kelley, Perine), old washed-up backs (Martin, Peterson, Lacy), and 3rd down backs who apparently rely on shiftiness rather than speed (Duke Johnson, James White, Javorius Allen). The name at the top of the list is striking - Le'Veon Bell shows that top speed is not required to be a great running back. But given the contents of the rest of the list, I don't think it invalidates the idea that top speed is relevant - it just shows that trends have exceptions, including wildly successful exceptions. And I guess we already knew that Bell had an unusual style which relied on patience and decision-making more than speed; this just highlights how little it relies on speed. Anderson, Lynch, Ware, and Blount are the other 4 guys on this list who have been pretty effective runners over the past 2 seasons, including in standard rushing situations . Though not effective enough to get a firm hold on a starting job. Anderson just got cut, apparently in favor of also-slow Devontae Booker, and Marshawn Lynch now has competition from also-slow Doug Martin. Blount has headed to Detroit to compete for carries with also-slow Ameer Abdullah, while Spencer Ware's injury opened the door for blazing-fast Kareem Hunt to take over the lead back role. Apparently some teams do not prioritize speed in their RBs, especially in the AFC West. (Odd story for Kareem Hunt: he had a top 6 speed in each of the first 3 weeks of the season, and then never again cracked the top 20. Possibly he got banged up a few weeks into the season, and that contributed to his drop in production? Although part of the story might just be that, because he failed to break open long plays after his hot start, he didn't have many opportunities after that to accelerate up near his top speed.) I'm not sure if (or how much) I should hold C.J. Anderson's lack of speed against him. My impression is that he has been an effective runner, and also pretty effective as a receiver when he's been used that way. But his lack of speed, in combination with Denver's lack of confidence in him (under multiple coaches), seem like cause for concern. Despite the handful of success stories, I am relatively pessimistic about Booker, Abdullah, and Perine after seeing their names on this list. I think that this also counts against Duke Johnson's chances of being an every-down back.
  13. Teams that are thin at running back: TB, IND, NYG, WAS, DET, SEA. Maybe GB or CAR.
  14. The projection formula based on age & recent production (which ranked Landry 3rd) does take into account that Landry's quarterbacks have been Tannehill & Cutler rather than Brady & Manning (since his quarterbacks influenced his recent production). It does not take into account that Landry has changed teams and is now going to have Taylor/Allen/Darnold/whoever as his QB.
  15. Non-ppr top 10 WRs for 2008 startup drafts (non-devy): 714 Calvin Johnson 529 Brandon Marshall* 467 Larry Fitzgerald* 428 Andre Johnson 403 Jordy Nelson* 399 Roddy White 323 Vincent Jackson 321 Wes Welker 320 DeSean Jackson* 303 Steve Smith In general there is about 1.4x as much VBD in ppr than in non-ppr, so Calvin's 714 is actually better than his ppr 944 (relative to other WRs) and the switch to non-PPR really only cost Welker a little over a quarter of his value relative to other WRs.