ZWK

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  1. Foreman: He would've been up on tier 6 before the injury; then back down to tier 7 with the injury. He's roughly where he was pre-season, a few spots higher because the guys around him have moved down. Achilles tear is a bigger concern than an ACL. Booker: My impression has been that he's playing worse than Anderson or Charles. But I haven't been following Denver that closely; I might be wrong about that. It does look like he has the best DVOA on the team, which is a good sign. Cook: He is roughly where I had him at the start of the season. His early season production was good but not spectacular, and then the ACL tear is obviously a negative, and those roughly cancel out. His per play production was better than what McKinnon & Murray have been doing, but only by a modest amount. And the fact that he got a huge share of the workload is a good sign, but my sense is that if he magically became healthy right now then his workload would not be as huge down the stretch, so I don't want to give him too much credit for dominating snaps over McKinnon & Murray for 3.5 games.
  2. Jordan Howard is currently RB13 for this season (right behind Chris Thompson, Carlos Hyde, and Lamar Miller). Melvin Gordon has outscored him by 30 fpts so far this year, Mark Ingram by 38 (for comparison, Howard has outscored Buck Allen by 32 fpts). As a receiver he looks even worse than last year, which caps his value. He's like Alfred Morris in Washington - good for the team, not that great in fantasy. And (unlike with most RBs), if his quarterback improves it's not clear if that will increase or decrease his fantasy production. Miami backfield: Most likely their RB of the future isn't on the roster, but Drake has a shot at it. The fact that Drake & Williams are caught in a value-killing committee is both bad for their short-term value, and bad as a sign about their future prospects. GB backfield: A great offense tends to translate into fantasy value for RBs, which works in favor of every Packer RB (once Rodgers is back). Aaron Jones currently looks like their best back, and is the most likely to be a valuable lead back for them next year. Montgomery has a shot too; Williams less so. But again, it seems more likely that their RB of the future isn't on the roster, plus there's the risk of a committee backfield next year which will prevent any of them from having much fantasy value.
  3. Gurley has been up and down with the Rams' offense, and I think that LA is not going to be able to sustain what they did over the first half of this season. Bell is more talented (in my opinion), he hasn't had a down year like Gurley's 2016, and he is still getting a larger workload than Gurley even though the Rams' RB depth has been worse. I have Bell ahead of Gurley rest-of-season, and beyond this season I think that Gurley's larger risk of decline is more important than him being 2.4 years younger. RBs 2-4 are basically a tossup. Zeke is out through week 16 and is one more incident away from a yearlong suspension. David Johnson is oldest and looks to be out for the year (I hadn't seen that report till after I posted; might be enough to move him down a spot or two). If I'm contending this year then I probably do take Gurley at #2 for his win-now value.
  4. Thanksgiving RB rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 11/17/17. Prev from 9/19/17 (2 weeks into the season). Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 25.7 (1) 2 2 David Johnson ARI 25.9 (2) 2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 22.3 (3) 2 4 Todd Gurley RAM 23.3 (5) 2 5 Leonard Fournette JAX 22.8 (4) 3 6 Alvin Kamara NO 22.3 (16) 3 7 Kareem Hunt KC 22.3 (11) 3 8 Devonta Freeman ATL 25.7 (6) 3 9 Christian McCaffrey CAR 21.4 (7) 3 10 Melvin Gordon LAC 24.6 (8) 4 11 Dalvin Cook MIN 22.3 (12) 4 12 Mark Ingram NO 27.9 (27) 4 13 Jordan Howard CHI 23.0 (15) 4 14 Joe Mixon CIN 21.3 (9) 4 15 Carlos Hyde SF 26.7 (14) 4 16 Derrick Henry TEN 23.3 (13) 4 17 Jay Ajayi PHI 24.4 (10) 5 18 Lamar Miller HOU 26.6 (20) 5 19 Ameer Abdullah DET 24.4 (18) 5 20 LeSean McCoy BUF 29.3 (17) 6 21 C.J. Anderson DEN 26.8 (19) 6 22 Aaron Jones GB 23.0 (67) 6 23 Tevin Coleman ATL 24.6 (23) 7 24 Alex Collins BAL 23.2 (89) 7 25 Chris Carson SEA 23.2 (34) 7 26 Marlon Mack IND 21.9 (30) 7 27 D'Onta Foreman HOU 21.6 (31) 7 28 Isaiah Crowell CLE 24.9 (21) 7 29 Rex Burkhead NE 27.4 (51) 7 30 Ty Montgomery GB 24.8 (22) 7 31 Samaje Perine WAS 22.2 (43) 7 32 Kenyan Drake MIA 23.8 (65) 8 33 Duke Johnson CLE 24.2 (38) 8 34 Chris Thompson WAS 27.1 (52) 8 35 Orleans Darkwa NYG 25.7 unr 8 36 Tarik Cohen CHI 22.3 (33) 8 37 C.J. Prosise SEA 23.5 (28) 8 38 Dion Lewis NE 27.1 (54) 8 39 DeMarco Murray TEN 29.7 (26) 8 40 Doug Martin TB 28.8 (25) 8 41 Marshawn Lynch OAK 31.6 (36) 8 42 Bilal Powell NYJ 29.0 (45) 8 43 Rob Kelley WAS 25.1 (29) 8 44 Spencer Ware KC 26.0 (40) 8 45 Jerick McKinnon MIN 25.5 (64) 9 46 Austin Ekeler LAC 22.5 (85) 9 47 Latavius Murray MIN 26.7 (55) 9 48 James Conner PIT 22.5 (49) 9 49 Theo Riddick DET 26.5 (32) 9 50 Mike Gillislee NE 27.0 (24) 9 51 James White NE 25.8 (35) 9 52 Thomas Rawls SEA 24.3 (39) 9 53 Adrian Peterson ARI 32.6 (59) 9 54 Matt Breida SF 22.7 (63) 9 55 Giovani Bernard CIN 26.0 (41) 9 56 Jamaal Charles DEN 30.9 (44) 9 57 Danny Woodhead BAL 32.9 (47) 9 58 Jamaal Williams GB 22.6 (48) 9 59 Jeremy Hill CIN 25.1 (42) 9 60 Eddie Lacy SEA 27.5 (50) 9 61 Frank Gore IND 34.5 (53) 9 62 Wayne Gallman NYG 23.1 (57) 9 63 Kenneth Dixon BAL 23.8 (58) 9 64 Damien Williams MIA 25.6 unr 9 65 Devontae Booker DEN 25.5 (69) 9 66 Elijah McGuire NYJ 23.5 (72) 9 67 J.D. McKissic SEA 24.3 unr 9 68 Jonathan Stewart CAR 30.6 (62) 9 69 Matt Forte NYJ 31.9 (66) 9 70 Alfred Morris DAL 28.9 (80) 9 71 Chris Ivory JAX 29.6 (87) 10 72 Jalen Richard OAK 24.1 (70) 10 73 DeAngelo Henderson DEN 25.0 (61) 10 74 Wendell Smallwood PHI 23.8 (68) 10 75 Javorius Allen BAL 26.2 (56) 10 76 Terrance West BAL 26.8 (46) 10 77 T.J. Yeldon JAX 24.1 (60) 10 78 Shane Vereen NYG 28.7 (71) 10 79 DeAndre Washington OAK 24.7 (74) 10 80 Paul Perkins NYG 23.0 (37) 10 81 Byron Marshall WAS 23.8 unr 10 82 Andre Ellington HOU 28.8 (95) 10 83 LeGarrette Blount PHI 30.9 (78) 10 84 Benny Cunningham CHI 27.4 (96) 10 85 Charles Sims TB 27.2 (73) 10 86 Malcolm Brown RAM 24.5 (81) 10 87 Charcandrick West KC 26.5 (79) 10 88 Devante Mays GB 23.5 (84) 10 89 Darren Sproles PHI 34.4 (75) 10 90 Jacquizz Rodgers TB 27.8 (76) 10 91 Dwayne Washington DET 23.6 (88) 10 92 Lance Dunbar RAM 27.8 (107) 10 93 Jonathan Williams 23.8 (90) 10 94 Robert Turbin IND 27.9 (91) 10 95 Donnel Pumphrey PHI 22.9 (92) 11 96 Brian Hill 22.0 (83) 11 97 Darren McFadden DAL 30.2 (82) 11 98 Joe Williams SF 24.2 (93) 11 99 Zach Zenner DET 26.2 (94) 11 100 T.J. Logan ARI 23.2 (98) 11 101 Matt Jones 24.7 (99) 11 102 Karlos Williams 24.5 (103) 11 103 Christine Michael 27.0 (104) 11 104 Alfred Blue HOU 26.6 (106) Very rookie heavy near the top, even moreso than it was before the season when I was getting pushback for having so many highly ranked rookies. It feels like there's a massive dropoff after RB20. The top 20 are all guys who are either strong starters now, or promising going forward. After that we have guys who are low-end starters at best this year, and who have major question marks about their future.
  5. In 0 PPR Marvin Jones has outscored Jarvis Landry by 6 fpts this year. In 0.5 PPR, Landry has outscored Jones by 8 points. In 1 PPR, Landry has outscored Jones by 23 points. League format matters a lot.
  6. Yeah, Landry should be higher. I've moved him up to 25, top of tier 6. Possibly he should be a bit higher still? He would definitely be higher than that in full PPR. As Bia notes these are 0.5 PPR rankings, which means that he has been a WR2 over the past 3 seasons, not a WR1. Landry is worth about 40% more VBD in full PPR than in 0.5 PPR. I do have Beckham, Evans, and Hopkins all on the same tier at the top - they are all in that young uberstud category (though none of them quite as high as Beckham was before the start of this season).
  7. Stidham is ranked 19th in production. Finley is 34th this year and was 28th in 2016.
  8. I agree that Larry Fitzgerald's skills & style of play make him less affected by a change in QB than John Brown. But the Cardinals' 2017-18 QB situation is still more relevant for Fitzgerald than for Brown, because Fitz is most likely going to play the rest of his career with the Cardinals' 2017-18 QBs while Brown is hitting free agency and could easily be playing for another 4+ years. Josh Gordon: risk is inevitable. Were you around this summer when we looked back over the rankings that I made at the start of this thread, 4 years earlier? The majority of receivers that I had ranked in the 20s and 30s turned out to be busts (with at most 1 WR3 season remaining). Also the majority of receivers that I had ranked in the 10s. How many of the 10 guys that I currently have after Gordon are safe bets to do better than that? How many of the 10 guys that I have ranked ahead of him are safe bets to have multiple top 25 WR seasons? Some of them are safer bets than Gordon, certainly, but you don't win championships by maximizing your probability of having an okay player.
  9. John Brown: He's pretty close to where he was at the start of the season. The good news is that he's been able to play (there had been concern that the sickle cell issue would keep him off the field) and reestablished himself as the Cardinals' #2 WR (there had been concern about him getting overtaken by Jaron Brown or JJ Nelson). The bad news is that his production has been horrible and he had a lingering quad issue for the first half of the season (which is probably related to the sickle cell trait). Given quarterback situation, IMO the good news outweighs the bad news by a bit. Dez Bryant (in relation to Fitzgerald): There are two interesting things about Fitzgerald. One is that he continues to be a top WR in his mid 30s. The other is that he had 3 down years at ages 29-31 (he didn't reach 1000 yards in any of those seasons, even though Palmer was his QB for 1 of them) and then bounced back. Dez is now in his third straight down year (at ages 27-29); Fitzgerald's example suggests that he still has a chance to bounce back. I do not expect Dez to age as gracefully as Larry has, but next season Dez will still just be 30 years old so he could still have a couple more big seasons in him even if he just returns to an Andre Johnson or Roddy White aging curve. Larry Fitzgerald: I could see putting him several spots higher, especially if you have a short window. Part of what's keeping him down in my rankings is Arizona's shaky quarterback situation, which matters much more for a guy who probably has a 1.5 year window than for younger players. FBG just has him as a solid WR2 rest-of-season. Marvin Jones: He's producing at the same level as Golden Tate this year. WR18 or so. Thielen: He hasn't just been "pretty solid"; he's a top 7 receiver this year in terms of fantasy production, DYAR, and PFF grade. With Case Keenum throwing him the ball for much of the year. Josh Gordon: He has been reinstated (his first practice was today), he has clearly put serious effort into his rehab this time, and he is still just 26. Substance abuse problems are hard to beat, but he has a legit shot to beat his and plenty of talent if he succeeds at sticking around in the NFL. I think he has a better shot than anyone else outside my top 5 tiers of putting up multiple elite receiving seasons. I had him at WR39 before the season started based on his upside and the fact that he still seemed to be trying to make it in the NFL, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see me with him in the top 30 given the news.
  10. I am still ranking Dez higher than where his recent production + age would put him. We saw with Larry Fitzgerald that sometimes elite receivers bounce back from a three-year downswing in production, even when it looked like it was permanent age-related decline in their late 20s / early 30s. But that sort of bounceback looks less and less likely each year, so Dez slides farther and farther down the rankings.
  11. Jordan Lasley shoots up to #2 in my WR rankings with huge games against Arizona State and USC. He is leading the FBS in receiving yards per game and 25+ receptions per game, and has 1 TD per game, though he has a smallish sample size with only 7 games played due to missing time for an unspecified team suspension. He looks to be joining Leonte Carroo (2015), Darren Carrington (2015), and DeVante Parker (2014) as receivers to put up huge numbers over a partial season. James Washington is still on top, and is the only guy who seems to be highly regarded by both conventional wisdom and my 2017 production formula. Courtland Sutton is up there too once you take 2016 production into account. There is more overlap among QBs (Mayfield, Rudolph, Darnold, L Jackson) and RBs (Barkley, Guice, Chubb, and R Freeman, with some others in striking distance depending on the combine - D Harris, Love, R Jones, J Adams). So I'm currently feeling more optimistic about this year's RB and QB classes than the WRs.
  12. I do have a separate thread on college players. My sense is that this draft class is relatively strong at RB and weak at WR, but I haven't tried to slot particular college players into my NFL rankings. I don't play in any devy leagues, so I don't have to. And the value of rookie draft picks doesn't depend that much on the value of specific college players - the values of different college players will shuffle around a fair amount over the next 5 months as we see how things shake out. The main exception is at the very top of the draft, where you might decide to go after the 1.01 if you think that Barkley is a top 5 dynasty RB.
  13. DB vs. DB: This is the third year in a row where Baldwin has outproduced Bryant, and redraft experts have come around and are generally putting Doug higher in the weekly rankings and rest-of-season rankings. "The player's production will stay at the level where it has been recently, until he hits age-related decline" is always one of the possibilities, and it becomes an increasingly likely possibility as the time period where is production has been at that level grows longer, and as the player gets older & closer to hitting age-related decline. And these are 29-year-olds who are in their third straight year of producing around this level. WR40 is already a huge move up for Funchess; looking at the guys around him it feels fairly reasonable. Carolina did choose to keep him and trade Benjamin away, but they were featuring Benjamin ahead of Funchess while they were both on the roster. Woods is another 2nd rounder who is just breaking out this year; it's good for Funchess that he's doing it in his 3rd year instead of his 5th but Woods is having a bigger season and wasn't as bad as Funchess pre-breakout. Seems close. Cobb, Hogan, and Moncrief are all guys who could potentially be playing with an elite passing QB which helps their upside. Also seem like they're in a similar ballpark to Funchess. I'm curious if folks would put Funchess on a higher tier or just move him up a few spots. Sammy Watkins has averaged 61 yards per game for his career, and it seems like he still tends to get the top CB's attention. I still think that there's a good chance that he has a lot of talent, though I'm less confident in that than I was at the start of the season. I think he'll probably sign elsewhere this offseason. Crowder and Agholor are slot receivers who developed a following based on a hot streak where they scored a flukishly high number of TDs. Seem like useful NFL players, but I am not very optimistic about either for fantasy. Dede Westbrook developed a hype train between week 1 and week 10 without appearing on the field. I think part of it is the mixture of competence from Jacksonville plus the lack of a clear top receiver after Robinson's injury led people to think that he might be a nice redraft stash. But that doesn't have much effect on his dynasty prospects. Laquon Treadwell's first 2 seasons have been even worse than Funchess's, but he's still a young 1st rounder who is just in his second year. He keeps sliding down my rankings, but he's still at WR68. Chris Conley has done very little with his opportunities, and has gradually been sliding down my rankings. Not sure what you mean about him showing well; IIRC he has consistently been near the bottom of the league in yards per route run. Leonte Carroo is a guy who I really liked coming into the NFL, but then he fell in the draft and has barely seen the field. I'm rooting for him to pan out, and might look to stash him where I can this offseason, but he has not been getting it done so far. I have him just a tier behind Treadwell, when Treadwell was drafted 2 rounds earlier and their NFL experiences have been similar.
  14. Thanksgiving WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 11/17/17. Prev from preseason, 9/5/17. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25.0 (1) 1 2 Mike Evans TB 24.2 (2) 1 3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25.4 (7) 2 4 Michael Thomas NO 24.7 (6) 2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 29.4 (5) 3 6 Julio Jones ATL 28.8 (4) 3 7 A.J. Green CIN 29.3 (8) 3 8 T.Y. Hilton IND 28.0 (9) 3 9 Allen Robinson JAX 24.2 (12) 3 10 Brandin Cooks NE 24.1 (11) 4 11 Tyreek Hill KC 23.7 (30) 4 12 Amari Cooper OAK 23.4 (3) 4 13 Sammy Watkins RAM 24.4 (10) 4 14 Adam Thielen MIN 27.2 (59) 4 15 Corey Davis TEN 22.9 (15) 5 16 Davante Adams GB 24.9 (17) 5 17 Keenan Allen LAC 25.6 (16) 5 18 Stefon Diggs MIN 24.0 (21) 5 19 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.2 (23) 5 20 Corey Coleman CLE 23.4 (18) 5 21 Alshon Jeffery PHI 27.8 (13) 5 22 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21.0 (44) 5 23 Dez Bryant DAL 29.0 (14) 5 24 DeVante Parker MIA 24.8 (19) 6 25 Mike Williams LAC 23.1 (20) 6 26 John Ross CIN 22.0 (22) 6 27 Demaryius Thomas DEN 29.9 (26) 6 28 Will Fuller HOU 23.6 (32) 6 29 Josh Gordon CLE 26.6 (39) 6 30 Jarvis Landry MIA 25.0 (28) 6 31 Josh Doctson WAS 25.0 (27) 6 32 Golden Tate DET 29.3 (51) 6 33 Michael Crabtree OAK 30.2 (33) 7 34 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30.6 (49) 7 35 Marvin Jones DET 27.7 (54) 7 36 Robert Woods RAM 25.6 (103) 7 37 Jordy Nelson GB 32.5 (25) 7 38 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 26.8 (24) 7 39 Sterling Shepard NYG 24.8 (35) 7 40 Devin Funchess CAR 23.5 (95) 7 41 Kenny Golladay DET 24.0 (56) 7 42 Randall Cobb GB 27.2 (36) 7 43 Chris Hogan NE 29.1 (46) 7 44 Robby Anderson NYJ 24.5 (77) 7 45 Donte Moncrief IND 24.3 (34) 7 46 John Brown ARI 27.6 (52) 7 47 Taywan Taylor TEN 22.7 (48) 7 48 Cameron Meredith CHI 25.2 (57) 7 49 Willie Snead NO 25.1 (41) 7 50 Zay Jones BUF 22.6 (45) 7 51 Marqise Lee JAX 26.0 (75) 7 52 Curtis Samuel CAR 21.3 (53) 7 53 Martavis Bryant PIT 25.9 (29) 7 54 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34.2 (61) 7 55 Paul Richardson SEA 25.6 (79) 7 56 Tyler Lockett SEA 25.1 (43) 8 57 Carlos Henderson DEN 22.9 (64) 8 58 Kevin White CHI 25.4 (42) 8 59 Cooper Kupp RAM 24.4 (60) 8 60 Chris Godwin TB 21.7 (55) 8 61 Jeremy Maclin BAL 29.5 (50) 8 62 Kenny Stills MIA 25.6 (78) 8 63 DeSean Jackson TB 30.9 (68) 8 64 Pierre Garcon SF 31.3 (62) 8 65 Julian Edelman NE 31.5 (67) 8 66 Rishard Matthews TEN 28.1 (87) 8 67 Tyrell Williams LAC 25.8 (38) 8 68 Laquon Treadwell MIN 22.4 (40) 8 69 Terrelle Pryor WAS 28.4 (31) 8 70 Dede Westbrook JAX 24.0 (74) 8 71 Nelson Agholor PHI 24.5 (86) 8 72 Jamison Crowder WAS 24.4 (47) 8 73 Allen Hurns JAX 26.0 (80) 8 74 Jordan Matthews BUF 25.3 (37) 8 75 Ted Ginn NO 32.6 (91) 8 76 Chad Williams ARI 23.1 (73) 8 77 Mohamed Sanu ATL 28.2 (105) 9 78 ArDarius Stewart NYJ 23.9 (72) 9 79 Chester Rogers IND 23.8 unr 9 80 Eric Decker TEN 30.7 (58) 9 81 Mike Wallace BAL 31.3 (76) 9 82 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 25.5 (93) 9 83 Malcolm Mitchell NE 25.3 (71) 9 84 Danny Amendola NE 32.0 (100) 9 85 Dontrelle Inman CHI 28.8 (125) 9 86 Phillip Dorsett NE 24.9 (83) 9 87 Marquise Goodwin SF 27.0 (90) 9 88 Bruce Ellington HOU 26.2 (118) 9 89 Brandon Marshall NYG 33.6 (63) 9 90 Torrey Smith PHI 28.8 (82) 9 91 Josh Malone CIN 21.7 (97) 9 92 Leonte Carroo MIA 23.8 (85) 9 93 Chris Conley KC 25.1 (81) 9 94 Breshad Perriman BAL 24.2 (65) 9 95 Mack Hollins PHI 24.2 (89) 9 96 Ricardo Louis CLE 23.7 (119) 9 97 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 27.8 (92) 9 98 J.J. Nelson ARI 25.6 (96) 9 99 Kendall Wright CHI 28.0 (84) 10 100 Michael Floyd MIN 28.0 (102) 10 101 Geronimo Allison GB 23.8 (116) 10 102 Amara Darboh SEA 23.8 (104) 10 103 Travis Benjamin LAC 27.9 (88) 10 104 Josh Reynolds RAM 22.8 (94) 10 105 Chad Hansen NYJ 22.8 (106) 10 106 Jehu Chesson KC 23.9 (121) 10 107 Trent Taylor SF 23.6 (135) 10 108 Tyler Boyd CIN 24.0 (69) 10 109 Ryan Switzer DAL 23.0 (126) 10 110 Cordarrelle Patterson OAK 26.7 (130) 10 111 Devin Smith NYJ 25.7 (128) 10 112 Chris Moore BAL 24.4 (133) 11 113 Dorial Green-Beckham 24.6 (115) 11 114 Robert Davis WAS 22.6 (107) 11 115 Trevor Davis GB 24.4 (122) 11 116 Jakeem Grant MIA 25.0 (132) 11 117 Rashard Higgins CLE 23.1 (136) 11 118 Jaron Brown ARI 27.9 (101) 11 119 Brice Butler DAL 27.8 (134) 11 120 Taylor Gabriel ATL 26.8 (70) 11 121 Braxton Miller HOU 25.0 (112) 11 122 Tajae Sharpe TEN 22.9 (109) 11 123 Cole Beasley DAL 28.6 (108) 11 124 Kenny Britt CLE 29.1 (66) 11 125 Tavon Austin RAM 26.7 (111) 11 126 Calvin Johnson RET 32.1 (123) 11 127 Terrance Williams DAL 28.2 (117) 11 128 Justin Blackmon RET 27.8 (124) 11 129 Albert Wilson KC 25.3 (131) 11 130 Kamar Aiken IND 28.5 (114) 11 131 Jeff Janis GB 26.4 (129) 11 132 Eli Rogers PIT 24.9 (127) 11 133 Brandon LaFell CIN 31.0 (120)