ZWK

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  1. I wouldn't worry about handcuffs in dynasty. I have 1.10 > Hunt > Perkins, so if you can get 1.10 straight up for Perkins I would do it. I wouldn't draft Hunt there (I'd go for Kamara, Ross, or a TE), although there are some people who prefer Hunt. Take the guy who you think will have the best career, not the guy who plays on the same team as the RB who you happen to own. Two years from now you'll still have this dynasty roster, and the Chiefs handcuff situation will probably look very different.
  2. He's worth a 3rd rounder, in my book (assuming ppr). He turns 31 in December, he was worth 19 VBD per season (1.5 VBD per game) during his 3 years in Washington (13.1 ppg for DJax - 11.6 ppg baseline), and Tampa doesn't seem like a better situation for him than Washington was (if anything it's slightly worse).
  3. Westbrook is the next WR on my list after the guys I mentioned earlier, WR14. Two big on-the-field concerns about him. First, he didn't get open very reliably - he had bad numbers in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception analysis. Second, he's really thin. Guys like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton were on the thin side coming into the league, and Westbrook would've needed to be 15 pounds heavier to be at the same combine BMI as they were. DeSean Jackson and Sidney Rice are the only two somewhat-successful NFL WRs who entered the NFL since 2006 with a BMI similar to Westbrook's. Westbrook also didn't run as fast as guys like DJax or Will Fuller. When a guy is far from the prototypical build, elite speed can be a trump card that still lets him still succeed in the NFL. Westbrook's speed is good, but not good enough to reduce my concerns about his build by that much.
  4. I heard a rumor that Allen Robinson has also been training with Keenan McCardell. My sources also tell me that Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder have been getting mentoring from Ike Hilliard, Breshad Perriman has been learning the ropes from Bobby Engram, and Kelvin Benjamin has been getting tips from Jerricho Cotchery. Big news if true!
  5. Evans has had low YAC every season, with an average of 2.50 yards after the catch per reception for his career. Looking at a 2016 highlight video, there are a lot of plays where he doesn't have much chance at YAC (either because he caught it in/near the end zone, or because defenders were there to take him down, or because it was a diving catch). But there were also some plays where it seems like he had a chance at more YAC and didn't take advantage. At 0:27 and 0:48 he goes out of bounds after making the catch in situations where some receivers might have been able to continue down the sidelines. At 1:38 and 3:13 he goes to the ground after making the catch when it seems like he had a chance to stay on his feet (though the 1:38 play happened in the end zone). It seems like a receiver who was trying hard to get YAC, and had good enough balance / body control / situational awareness, could have stayed up and kept going on those plays and the out-of-bounds ones. At 1:53 and 3:00 he caught the ball with a defender nearby and it looked like he maybe had a chance to get by the first defender but he didn't manage to do so. And there aren't any plays in this highlight video where he did much after the catch.
  6. Off-topic: I came across another example of Simpson's paradox a few months ago. Did you know that, despite his famous big leg, Sebastian Janikowski is below average at making long field goals? He has made 55% of his 50+ yard field goal attempts (55/100 for his career), while over the same time period (2000-2016) other kickers have made 57.7% of their 50+ yard field goal attempts (1038/1799). But let's break that down into smaller yard ranges: 50-54 yards: Janikowski 62.7% (42/67) vs. everyone else 61.5% (919/1495) 55-59 yards: Janikowski 45.8% (11/24) vs. everyone else 44.5% (109/245) 60-64 yards: Janikowski 33.3% (2/6) vs. everyone else 21.3% (10/47) 65+ yards: Janikowski 0.0% (0/3) vs. everyone else 0.0% (0/12) ----------------- all 50+ yards: Janikowski 55.0% (55/100) vs. everyone else 57.7% (1038/1799) Janikowski tends to take longer FG attempts than other kickers, even if we only look at the 50+ range, so even though he has been better (or at least as good) from every distance, he still has a lower FG% on the whole from 50+ yards.
  7. I had to re-read it, I thought for a second you stumbled on an example of one of my favorite statistical/mathematical occurrences: Simpson's paradox. It is Simpson's paradox. In traffic Fournette > Cook In space Fournette > Cook Overall (traffic+space) Cook > Fournette
  8. My take is that Davis belongs somewhere in the top 5 picks, Williams should be 1.06, and Ross should be somewhere in the bottom half of rd 1. Then several WRs belong somewhere in rd 2: JuJu, Samuel, Z Jones, Henderson, Taywan Taylor, Godwin. After those guys are gone, in rd 3 I'd be open to any of Golladay, Stewart, Chad Williams, and Kupp (though Kupp is usually going sooner than that). But it's a mistake to lock in on one position in a rookie draft. At 1.05 you should either draft whoever's left out of Davis & the 4 RBs, or trade the pick. And if value falls in a later round at another position then you should be willing to pick it up. That's how you build a great team.
  9. By my numbers, on plays in traffic Fournette had more yards after contact per touch than Cook, and on plays in space Fournette had more yards after contact per touch than Cook, but on the whole Cook had more yards after contact per touch than Fournette because a larger fraction of Cook's touches came in space. Getting more touches in space is often a matter of scheme, or the gap in talent between the defense and the rest of the offense, but it can also depend on other aspects of the RB's skills. For example, a RB with bad vision might misread the play and run into a pack of defenders at the line of scrimmage, on a play where a RB with better vision would've found the hole and not encountered any defenders until the second level where he had a linebacker one-on-one in space. I'm not sure about the cause in the case of Cook vs. Fournette.
  10. In a best ball league that I ran the numbers on, not taking a 2nd defense would've cost you about 57 fantasy points on average (including the week where you took a 0). The exact number will depend on your league's scoring for defenses (and of course on which D you took, and which 2nd D you would've taken).
  11. By my numbers, the least productive FBS receivers who entered the league since 2006 and have had some NFL success are: Josh Gordon (best season at Baylor: 42/714/7 in 13 games) Michael Thomas (best season at Ohio State: 56/781/9 in 13 games) Doug Baldwin (best season at Stanford: 58/857/9 receiving + 3/39/0 rushing in 13 games) Martavis Bryant (best season at Clemson: 42/828/7 in 13 games) There are also 7 guys who weren't FBS receivers who have had some NFL success at WR, college QBs Julian Edelman & Terrelle Pryor and 5 non-FBS receivers: Marques Colston (best season at Hofstra: 70/975/9 in 11 games) Miles Austin (best season at Monmouth: 49/1004/11 in 8 games) Pierre Garcon (best season at Mount Union: 67/955/14 receiving + 11/61/2 rushing in 14 games) Victor Cruz (best season at UMass: 76/1064/6 in 12 games) John Brown (best season at Pittsburg State: 61/1216/12 receiving + 18/92/3 rushing in 14 games) So Tyreek Hill's college production was worse than any of them, except the quarterbacks.
  12. It looks like you might be leaving out his receiving TDs, and not adjusting for the fact that he only played 13 games. I'm getting 188 fpts in 16 games, if he maintains last year's pace of carries, yards per carry, and receptions, with Tomlinson's TD per carry rate and Sproles's YPR and TD per reception rate. (145/640/6.6 rushing and 38/333/2.2 receiving.) Still just low-end RB2 numbers, but a lot more useful than RB34. I do agree with the broader point that he's due for significant regression in his efficiency numbers.
  13. IN - LEAGUE 3
  14. Dan Hindery's (deep) devy rankings are here. Several people shared their top guys in this thread. I listed a bunch of names here.
  15. I'm not sure what to make of those week by week numbers. Looking instead at the 16-game pace (and comparing his ppr ppg with other receivers' 2016 season stats), here are Evans's stats for various time periods: 2016 season: 96/1321/12 on 171 targets (finished as the #3 WR in ppg in 2016) First half of 2016: 110/1490/16 on 202 targets (on pace to be the #1 WR in 2016) Second half of 2016: 82/1152/8 on 140 targets (on pace to be the #12 WR in 2016) Career: 85/1273/9.6 on 156 targets (on pace to be the #8 WR in 2016) So there was a dropoff, but he was still a borderline WR1.