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About ZWK

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  1. @Adam Harstad wrote a long post going through his recent dynasty rebuild, and how he thinks about these sorts of things: How I'm Rebuilding My Dynasty Team.
  2. Crazy huge week from @Dreamer with 316.44 points behind Aaron Jones & Mike Gesicki. That crushes the previous league record for a single week of 279.70, set back in 2013 by Dreamers. (Although it doesn't quite win the top week across all Anarchy leagues.)
  3. So that you know whether you need 2 more TDs or if you can settle for a FG on one of them to tie it up. Down 18 could mean tying it 2 TDs, 1 with a 2-pt conversion and the other with an XP, plus a FG. But in order for that to work you have to convert the 2-pointer. So it would be great if you could know in advance whether you'll convert it, because if you won't then you know you'll have to keep going for TDs and shouldn't ever settle for a FG. Which is why you go for 2 on the first TD.
  4. Not crazy, though it depends on how deep the rosters are in your league. In any of my dynasty leagues I'd be happy to get Pittman in exchange for my entire waiver budget. But in my keep-10 league with only 7 bench spots, I would not give that much for him.
  5. It's worth going big, including >50% and up to 100%. One way to look at it: the best player to come off waivers is typically worth more than 1/12 of the total value that comes off waivers in a season, so he winds up being worth more than a team's entire waiver budget (in a 12 team league). If you know that you have a good shot at someone like that then it can make sense to go all-in. Or go 60% or whatever if they're not quite that great an option, or you think other teams won't outbid you. Usually, the best waiver options go early in the season. So I wouldn't worry about blowing through my waiver bucks. (As long as there are also free waiver pickups where I can cycle through defenses and so on.) You should think about the gap in value between the guy you're getting and the guy you're dropping, and don't go big unless there's a big gap. e.g. James White vs. Nyheim Hines seems like a close call, so if I had to drop White in order to pick up Hines then I'd keep my bid low. That probably means that I miss out on Hines, but that's fine since I still get to roster White.
  6. I have a spreadsheet of TE career trajectories, if you want to just look at all the good TEs and avoid cherrypicking. For the top TEs who entered the NFL 1995-2014, here's the first season when they had a huge year (50+ VBD): 3 Tony Gonzalez 2 Antonio Gates 2 Jason Witten 5 Travis Kelce 2 Rob Gronkowski 5 Zach Ertz 2 Jimmy Graham 1 Jeremy Shockey 2 Todd Heap 5 Dallas Clark 8 Greg Olsen 2 Chris Cooley 3* Kellen Winslow *missed prev yr So 7/13 in year 2 or earlier and 2 more in year 3 (including 1 who missed his 2nd season). (This list is sorted by estimated career VBD, including future VBD.) Also, all of these guys except Winslow showed something in their first 2 years. Here's their first season with >0 VBD (using this method of calculating VBD): 2 Tony Gonzalez 2 Antonio Gates 2 Jason Witten 2* Travis Kelce 1 Rob Gronkowski 2 Zach Ertz 2 Jimmy Graham 1 Jeremy Shockey 2 Todd Heap 1 Dallas Clark 2 Greg Olsen 1 Chris Cooley 3* Kellen Winslow *missed prev yr
  7. 2nd year breakouts are what's most common among elite TEs. Not just Kittle & Andrews, but also Gronk, Graham, Gates, Witten, etc. And most of those guys also showed something as rookies. There is another bucket of TEs who took longer to hit big, or gradually improved over their first several years, like Kelce, Ertz, and Olsen. But those guys are rarer, especially among TEs who hit really big. The fact that this is even a meaningfully sized bucket does make TE different from WR, but it's still not where I'd typically go looking for my dynasty TEs.
  8. Yeah, everyone can edit it. I set it up that way so that you could edit it. If you want to DM me your email address I could give edit rights to you in particular and stop anyone else from editing it. (I also made a second tab which was a copy of the first tab, and which no one can edit except me, in case someone messed up the doc.)
  9. From the ownership numbers, I can calculate that the average team has: QB: 2.8 for $34 (2019: 2.6 for $34, 2018: 2.9 for $31) RB: 5.2 for $88 (2019: 5.3 for $83, 2018: 5.4 for $86) WR: 6.0 for $82 (2019: 5.7 for $82, 2018: 6.4 for $83) TE: 2.5 for $28 (2019: 2.3 for $30, 2018: 2.5 for $30) PK: 2.2 for $8 (2019: 2.2 for $10, 2018: 2.3 for $8) Def: 2.3 for $9 (2019: 2.2 for $12, 2018: 2.3 for $11) tot: 21.1 for $250 (2019: 20.3 for $250, 2018: 21.8 for $250) 11.7% average ownership for the players on their team (2019: 15.4%, 2018: 13.1%)
  10. I just copied and pasted. Did it work? Yep. This spreadsheet now has ownership info which TheWinz got from the querier.
  11. I am an old fart and would need help sharing. Are you offering your services when I am finished? If you stick it into a Google spreadsheet instead of an Excel one then you can share it. If you want an easy option, it would probably work to just copy it all and paste it in here.
  12. QB KC Chiefs QB NO Saints RB Christian McCaffrey RB Saquon Barkley RB Ezekiel Elliott RB Alvin Kamara WR Tyreek Hill WR Michael Thomas WR Davante Adams WR Julio Jones WR DeAndre Hopkins TE Travis Kelce TE George Kittle FLEX Zach Ertz PK Harrison Butker PK Wil Lutz DEF KC Chiefs DEF NO Saints
  13. My 30-player roster: 8.6% - QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8 13.6% - QB - Philip Rivers - IND/7 - $8 9.2% - QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7 10.2% - RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/7 - $30 24.6% - RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26 46.7% - RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9 8.4% - RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4 6.9% - RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3 11.3% - WR - Michael Thomas - NO/6 - $33 5.2% - WR - Julian Edelman - NE/6 - $15 7.5% - WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/11 - $12 10.9% - WR - Parris Campbell - IND/7 - $7 3.0% - WR - Corey Davis - TEN/7 - $6 11.4% - WR - Laviska Shenault - JAX/7 - $5 3.4% - WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3 9.5% - WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3 26.1% - WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3 5.3% - TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/9 - $20 10.4% - TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $17 4.2% - TE - Irv Smith - MIN/7 - $8 1.8% - TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3 21.8% - PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3 6.3% - PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2 23.5% - PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2 9.9% - PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2 18.4% - TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3 4.5% - TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2 3.4% - TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2 6.1% - TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2 7.3% - TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2 average ownership: 11.3% average ownership (excluding PK & Def): 11.4% The biggest change I made from previous years was putting more effort into stacking, with 2 Raiders receivers, 1 Viking, and 1 Colt. It should help both for the season as a whole (e.g., if the Raiders passing offense clicks this year) and for individual games in the finals. By position QB: 3 for $23 The good: pretty cheap, I got 3 of them, they're solid guys, I stacked each with 1-2 receivers. The bad: limited upside, 2 wk7 byes. I thought about going pricier on one, but I just wasn't that thrilled with anyone in the $10-15 range and I didn't want to pay up for the top guys. RB: 5 for $72 2 studs (Henry who has a great playoff schedule, Jacobs). 1 obvious value play (Gibson). 1 "handcuff" to a guy with high injury risk (Snell). 1 cheap depth guy (Gore). I considered getting a 3rd stud or another cheap guy but preferred spending that money elsewhere. WR: 9 for $87 Thomas could be the highest scoring non-QB in the whole contest. Edelman is a huge value compared to his typical production. Deebo looks like one of the standard "great value if you set aside the first few weeks" guys for this contest. Then a bunch more cheap guys to take advantage of best ball, mainly guys who have moved up the ranks since pricing was set. TE: 4 for $48 One (near?) stud TE in Ertz, two mid-range guys who were borderline choices but get a bit of a boost from the stack (Waller, Irv Smith), and one of the best value plays of the contest in Akins (behind only Edwards & Gibson, IMO, but somehow he's the least-owned player on my roster at 1.8%). PK: 4 for $9 Def: 5 for $11 These are prime "throw numbers at it" positions, where you can keep adding $2 players who are likely to give you at least a couple starts. My two $3 options are Boswell (solid kicker, I was out of $2 starters) and TEN (good looking D especially for the championship weeks). By bye wk5: 2 for $5 wk6: 7 for $104 wk7: 10 for $79 wk8: 6 for $23 wk9: 2 for $22 wk10: 1 for $2 wk11: 2 for $15 wk13: 0 for $0 Could be in trouble in week 6 (Raiders + M Thomas + Edelman) and 7 (Cousins + other Vikings, Rivers + other Colts, Henry). Hopefully I'll still have enough firepower that early in the season. Week 13 byes essentially make a player undraftable. By price Studs ($24+): 3 for $89. 2 RB, 1 WR. Solid Starters ($11-$23): 4 for $64. 2 WR, 2 TE. Undervalued midrange guys ($6-$10): 7 for $47. 3 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE. Cheap value plays ($2-$5): 16 for $44. 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 4 PK, 5 Def. This year the barbell shape is less extreme than usual. I usually like paying up for a few of the very best, but this year it seemed worth taking the discount to get guys in the next tier (Henry, Jacobs, Ertz, Waller instead of Barkley, Elliott, Kelce, Kittle). I wonder if the pricing was a little different? Another factor was McCaffrey's ineligibility. 30 players with lots of cheap guys is typical for me (though with last year's pricing I only got 26). Who missed the cut The last change I made: cutting $10 Noah Fant + $4 Malcolm Brown and adding $8 Irv Smith + $3 Frank Gore + $3 Tre'Quan Smith. Irv Smith gives me a stack & I expect he'll be much lower ownership than Fant, I'm skeptical of Brown's upside which makes Gore not much worse for RB depth, and Smith has some potential for blow-up games (like he's done before) or a surprisingly good season (as a 3rd yr WR getting some camp hype). The last change I seriously considered but rejected: cutting $8 Philip Rivers + $7 Parris Campbell and adding $15 Drew Brees. Tempting as a way to get some QB upside, plus Campbell isn't that great a deal and I already have two NO WRs. But Brees is on the road for the 3-week championship, and has a wk6 bye, so I'll bet on Campbell making up the Brees-Rivers gap. Some other guys who I was eyeing: QB Russell Wilson, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Aaron Jones, RB Chris Thompson, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Adam Humphries, WR Cole Beasley, TE Mark Andrews, TE Chris Herndon.
  14. Last season was my worst Anarchy team by far, so I'm hoping for a major bounceback. As always, I'm relying heavily on projections and trying to stick pretty close to my draft board, adjusting positional values as I go. 1.01 TE Travis Kelce KC Kelce was the most valuable player in this format last year, even though McCaffrey, L Jackson, and M Thomas had ridiculous years and he didn't. With 2 PPR and playoff potential he's at the top of my draft board this year. Also considered: none. 2.16 QB Drew Brees + Taysom Hill NO Brees seems to still be going strong, and when you add on all of Taysom Hill's production plus playoff value the Saints QB looks to me like the best QB option outside the big two. Also considered: none. 3.01 RB Kenyan Drake ARI This feels like a soft spot in the draft; would've loved to have Mixon fall. Drake has a lower floor than I'd like this early in the draft, but also has the potential to put up big numbers in an offense that's a great fit for him. Also considered: WR Allen Robinson. 4.16 RB Chris Carson SEA I don't usually go this RB heavy in Anarchy, but I also usually don't have this kind of workhorse RB fall to me at the end of round 4. Also considered: none. 5.01 WR DK Metcalf SEA Plenty of upside going into his 2nd year, and even just a repeat of last year's numbers wouldn't be bad. Playoff potential bumps him over McLaurin & Parker, and doubling up on Seahawks makes that even better. Also considered: RB David Montgomery, WR Terry McLaurin, WR DeVante Parker, QB Tom Brady. 6.16 WR Marvin Jones DET 7.01 WR Brandin Cooks HOU I was crossing my fingers that Marquise Brown would fall, but alas. Huge tier drop after Edelman & Brown, and I'm left picking between a bunch of similarly valued players. I went with Jones & Cooks who both have pretty strong mainline projections and some upside based on what they've done in the past, though they also have some downside risk with Jones's age & recent injuries and Cooks's concussion history and lousy 2019 season. I downgraded Swift & Diontae Johnson a bit due to camp injuries, and passed on QBs because I expect to find a good value there sometime later on. Also considered: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Diontae Johnson, QB Matthew Stafford. 8.16 PK Harrison Butker KC 9.01 PK Justin Tucker BAL Kickers! The top kickers have several advantages - quality of offense, talent, job security, playoff potential - which stack to put them at the top of my draft board after Crowder didn't quite fall to me. Also considered: WR Preston Williams, RB Phillip Lindsay, QB Jared Goff. 10.16 RB Zack Moss BUF Moss is a committee back with a shot at the larger role. Nice value here. He was limited in practice yesterday with a neck injury, which might be part of why he fell, but from what I've read it sounds really minor. 11.01 DST Baltimore Ravens BAL If everyone is fading defenses, I'll take a top one here with talent, an easy schedule, and playoff potential. I would've doubled up at RB if Breida or Armstead had fallen. Also considered: WR Henry Ruggs, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Boston Scott. 12.16 TE Gerald Everett LAR 13.01 RB Darrell Henderson LAR My third straight year drafting Everett! These are a little more boom-or-bust than I'd like, with uncertainty about their roles on the Rams offense, but I don't see anyone who I like better. Probably would've gone Aiyuk if he'd been healthy, or QB if I saw more separation between MIA, CAR, and LAC. Also considered: QB Dolphins, WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Tony Pollard, DST Minnesota Vikings, DST New England Patriots. 14.16 WR Brandon Aiyuk SF 15.01 DST Chicago Bears CHI Aiyuk is a starting WR with some upside, and I decided I'm willing to take on some hamstring risk given how much I like him relative to the other receivers. The Bears are likely to have a good defense. Decided to gamble on either QB Dolphins or QB Chargers making it to my next pick. Also considered: QB Dolphins. 16.16 QB Sam Darnold NYJ I guess I should've taken my QB last round - I was hoping for MIA or LAC but Blinky sniped me on both. I guess the gap between NYJ and WAS is big enough to take one here, especially since many of the WRs & TEs near the top of my board went undrafted in other leagues. 17.01 WR Russell Gage ATL If I'd known that Pollard would fall this far I would've waited on my last RB, but it still doesn't make sense to flex him. Instead I'll go with the guy who seems to have the Falcons' WR3 job locked down. Also considered: TE Jordan Akins, TE Logan Thomas, WR Denzel Mims. 18.16 TE Logan Thomas WAS High ceiling given the offseason hype and the lack of other Football Team receiving options, and his floor isn't too bad since he seems likely to get plenty of snaps. Also considered: TE Darren Fells, TE Nick Boyle, WR Danny Amendola, TE Will Dissly, TE Robert Tonyan. This squad feels more boom-or-bust than I usually go. I'm pretty excited about the upside of some of the later picks (Aiyuk, L Thomas, Moss) but they could blow up in my face. Weaker than usual at WR, more early RBs, very strong specialists, barbell QB & TEs. I think I mismanaged the QB position a bit, and also wasn't able to take advantage of the RB value late (Pollard with my next-to-last pick or James Robinson as Mr. Irrelevant). Picking on the turn had some downsides, watching guys that I'd been eyeing for over a round get sniped shortly before me (Marquise Brown, Boston Scott, QB Chargers, and some others). But on the plus side I got Travis Kelce, so probably worth it. My favorite non-me teams are Blinky The Three Eyed Fish and Genester.