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About ZWK

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  1. One approach that seems like it might be good: - keep the current challenge system (2+1 challenges, with booth-initiated reviews in some situations) - every aspect of the play is reviewable including judgment calls like pass interference and holding - judgment calls are only overturned if they're blatant - have the crew in NY do the reviews to save time So the Rams' non-PI call against the Saints could be reviewed and should be overturned because it was blatant. The Steelers' PI call against the Saints could also be reviewed but should not be overturned, since there was some contact between the defender's hands and the receiver's back (even though IMO it would've been better to not call it).
  2. ZWK

    Playoff Contest is LIVE

    My team scored 10 points more than the cutoff this week. Unfortunately I was eliminated in the wild card round, and I scored below the cutoff again in the divisional round, and my roster only has 2 players who are in the Super Bowl.
  3. He's the best ever at it because he only does it when the defense leaves it open. This time the Chiefs were packing the middle with big bodies so it wasn't there.
  4. Ty Johnson is a 5-foot-10, 213-pounder. They measured him just this week. Come on Rotoworld, there was an article about those measurements right on your website.
  5. Jacobs has 10 career 20+ yard carries on 193 non-red-zone attempts which is about average (11 would've been average for a college RB on that many carries).
  6. ZWK

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Namath is underrated by a lot of people. From 1965-1974 he was a close contender for the top QB in the game, or at least for #2 behind Tarkenton. That shows up in his stats (if you look at the right ones and don't ignore things like sacks and fumbles) and in his awards (5 pro bowls and 1 first team all-pro) as well as his one big postseason. He had a lower career sack rate than Eli Manning (4.4% vs. 4.8%), despite playing in an era when sacks were far more common. He belongs in the Hall, though not in the top 10.
  7. With Shrine Game weigh-ins we're starting to get accurate size data on this year's draft class. No big names so far. Some of the more relevant guys include: WR Keesean Johnson 6'1.1", 204 lb, 26.8 BMI - averageish size WR Cody Thompson 6'1.5", 200 lb, 26.0 BMI - on the thin side, right at the 26.0 threshold below which I get increasingly concerned RB Ty Johnson 5'10.4", 213 lb, 30.2 BMI - averageish size RB Devine Ozigbo 5'10.6", 219 lb, 30.9 BMI - above average size but much smaller than his listing QB Brett Rypien 6'1.8", 204 lb, 26.4 BMI - on the small side QB Easton Stick 6'1.4", 217 lb, 28.3 BMI - a bit shorter than ideal
  8. My system doesn't like Jacobs because of his light workload. Maxed out at 120 carries, never reached 1000 YFS, etc. It's rare for an RB to have much success in the NFL when he was never the man in college, though there are exceptions (including Alvin Kamara & Chris Carson recently). But Jacobs has a pretty good excuse sharing a backfield with Harris & Harris, so I do like him more than my formula does. I still want to see more of his advanced stats and workout numbers before crowning him as a top prospect.
  9. Hey Z, the weight avg is incorrect. It is 197 lb. The average is for all RBs at the combine (2007-2018); I edited the post to make it clearer. It's there to make it easy to see that these receiving backs are all shorter and lighter than average (some by a lot), but they have pretty typical BMIs.
  10. Receiving is becoming increasingly important for RBs, both in the NFL and in ppr fantasy. One type of RB that's worth looking at is the receiving back - the type of RB who doesn't run the ball much but has ppr fantasy value thanks to his receiving production. My approach to rating RB prospects isn't really designed to identify these guys, so I figured I'd take a look and see if I could get a better idea of what to look for. I figured I'd start by picking out the NFL RBs who best fit this type. Here are the 8 I came up with: Darren Sproles, James White, Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Tarik Cohen, Chris Thompson, Shane Vereen. How do these 8 RBs stand out as prospects? Here are some things we knew about them when they were coming into the NFL (using the order above), in comparison with the avg RB at the NFL combine. Height (avg combine RB is 5'10.5"): 5'6.1", 5'9.1", 5'10.1", 5'9.1", 5'7.6", 5'6.4", 5'7.1", 5'10.3" Weight (avg combine RB is 214 lb): 187, 204, 201, 207, 197, 179, 192, 210 BMI (avg combine RB is 30.2): 30.1, 30.0, 28.7, 30.5, 30.3, 28.6, 30.0, 29.9 Max Rec Yd in a college season: 287, 300, 436, 421, 484, 339, 248, 244 Max Rush Yd in a college season: 1986, 1444, 917, 1652, 2756, 1588, 845, 1167 Tot ST TDs in college: 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 FBS school?: Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, No, No, Yes, Yes The general pattern: They're small, and this is mostly about being short rather than being skinny. Two have exceptionally low weight and most are on the low end for NFL backs, none have exceptionally low BMI and 6 of the 8 have averageish BMI, most are below average height and half are below 5'8". They were generally 3-down backs in college, with plenty of rushing production (all over 800 rushing yards in a season and the majority over 1400), though Riddick did only have 1 year as a RB after spending a couple years in college at WR and Thompson shifted to a less-balanced receiving-heavy RB role after FSU added Devonta Freeman. They were all involved in the passing game (200+ receiving yards in season), but only 3 of the 8 had a particularly high-end receiving season (400+ rec yds). They were a bit more likely than most RBs to have special teams scores or be from a non-FBS school, but these still weren't typical. They didn't particularly stand out from other RBs in their workouts (not shown here); this is a fairly representative group (in terms of both average and the spread) in 40 time, jumps, agility drills, and bench. Sproles is the only one that stands out for great agility drills, Woodhead is the only one that stands out for especially good athleticism, Riddick is the only one that stands out for a particularly slow 40. If I was to expand the list past 8 RBs, the next 10 that I'd include are: Jalen Richard, Nyheim Hines, Pierre Thomas, Dion Lewis, Bilal Powell, Giovani Bernard, Austin Ekeler, Kevin Faulk, Jerick McKinnon, and T.J. Yeldon. On the whole these 10 guys fit a similar pattern; the main difference is that more of them had special teams scores. There are also more occasional exceptions to other patterns, like Yeldon being bigger and Bilal Powell having less college receiving production. But guys like Yeldon and Powell have also had NFL careers that fit less closely to the receiving back pattern. The overall lesson seems to be: if a good college RB seems like he might be too small to make it in the NFL, where "too small" is more about short / low weight than low BMI, then see if he has some receiving skills which might allow him to settle into a receiving role in the NFL. This is somewhat informative but not all that much, because there are a lot of RBs that make the cut. New England and New Orleans are also overrepresented on these lists; that is more actionable (at least after the draft). I was hoping that there might be more of a pattern of "RBs who do a great job as receivers in college often settle into a 3rd down RB role in the NFL" but that doesn't seem to be the case; a lot of these guys had solid but unspectacular college receiving production and also good rushing production.
  11. do these default to order by your rankings? My spreadsheet is sorted by "overall rtg", which includes size, speed, age, etc. in addition to career production. To compare with the rotoworld ones, I re-sorted by "production score" (which is only based on 2018 production). So my top 10 (limited to guys on his list) were: Hakeem Butler, Andy Isabella, Emanuel Hall, Antoine Wesley, D.K. Metcalf, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry, Gary Jennings, and A.J. Brown. (Some other guys like Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson would be in there but didn't make the Rotoworld list.)
  12. These look pretty similar to my stats-based ratings of 2018 production. There's a correlation of 0.85 between his rankings and my rankings for 2018 production score, for the 42 WRs that made both lists. The biggest differences are that he's higher than me on the production of Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Riley Ridley, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and N'Keal Harry, and I'm higher than him on the production of Marquise Brown, Stanley Morgan, Andy Isabella, John Ursua, and Antoine Wesley.
  13. ZWK

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Brad Oremland posted his rankings of the top QBs by total statistical production last summer. His top 10: 1. Peyton Manning 2. Dan Marino 3. Tom Brady 4. Drew Brees 5. Johnny Unitas 6. Fran Tarkenton 7. Joe Montana 8. Otto Graham 9. Brett Favre 10. Steve Young A few years earlier he posted rankings based on his personal opinion; it's almost all the same names but in a different order (though Brees-through-2014 misses the list and Staubach is #10). Both writeups have lots of thoughtful explanations.
  14. Here is who my formula currently has as the top 25 RB prospects in college football. Keep in mind that these are likely to change a lot over the next couple months, since they're missing numbers like combine workouts and yards after contact which play a pretty big role in the formula. Travis Etienne Clemson Darrell Henderson Memphis D'Andre Swift Georgia Elijah Mitchell La-Lafytte Jonathan Taylor Wisconsin Damien Harris Alabama Trey Ragas La-Lafytte Trayveon Williams Texas A&M Benny Snell, Jr. Kentucky Jermar Jefferson Oregon St Scottie Phillips Miss Michael Warren II Cincinnati Mike Weber Ohio State Devin Singletary FAU Benny LeMay Charlotte Ke'Shawn Vaughn Vanderbilt Kennedy Brooks Oklahoma David Montgomery Iowa State Zack Moss Utah J.K. Dobbins Ohio State Bryce Love Stanford Miles Sanders Penn State Trey Sermon Oklahoma Josh Jacobs Alabama Qadree Ollison Pittsburgh These rankings incorporate numbers like size, estimated speed, rushing efficiency, workload, receiving production, strength of schedule, and age.
  15. Anthony Johnson, Emmanuel Hall, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, David Sills, and Riley Ridley are guys who could make some people's top 10 WR lists, although they all seem pretty unlikely to crack your top 12 rookies.