ZWK

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  1. The Falcons offense continues to look really good and they have Freeman signed long-term. He scores touchdowns, he catches passes, he gets a bunch of carries. Coming off back-to-back seasons as a top 8 fantasy RB and this year looks like more of the same. What do you expect to change? Gordon: the Chargers seem pretty satisfied with him, given that they decided not to add anyone besides Ekeler. The draft pedigree, plus the production (including in the red zone and the receiving game), plus the team showing that level of trust in him makes for a pretty promising combination. Low YPC is a bit of a concern but the OL has had troubles (as JWB has reminded us when we discuss quarterbacks) and this year the majority of his carries were against Denver. Compared to Freeman there are more questions about his talent, and more uncertainty / potential instability in his situation (midway through his rookie contract, with a QB who is turning 36), but it still seems like he should be up there. Perine: he doesn't offer much in the passing game, and he didn't look particularly good this weekend when Kelley's injury got him carries. Martin: He is 4 years older than most of those guys (just 2 years older than Gillislee), and was going behind most of them in redraft. I do like him as a high-upside option for this season, but the clock is ticking and if he puts together a string of good seasons now that will be a career first.
  2. 2 weeks into the season, another RB update. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 9/3/17. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 25.5 (2) 2 2 David Johnson ARI 25.7 (1) 2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 22.1 (3) 3 4 Leonard Fournette JAX 22.6 (5) 3 5 Todd Gurley RAM 23.1 (4) 3 6 Devonta Freeman ATL 25.5 (7) 3 7 Christian McCaffrey CAR 21.2 (6) 3 8 Melvin Gordon LAC 24.4 (8) 4 9 Joe Mixon CIN 21.1 (9) 4 10 Jay Ajayi MIA 24.2 (10) 4 11 Kareem Hunt KC 22.1 (18) 4 12 Dalvin Cook MIN 22.1 (12) 5 13 Derrick Henry TEN 23.1 (15) 5 14 Carlos Hyde SF 25.9 (14) 5 15 Jordan Howard CHI 22.8 (11) 5 16 Alvin Kamara NO 22.1 (13) 5 17 LeSean McCoy BUF 29.1 (16) 5 18 Ameer Abdullah DET 24.2 (17) 6 19 C.J. Anderson DEN 26.6 (23) 6 20 Lamar Miller HOU 26.4 (19) 6 21 Isaiah Crowell CLE 24.6 (22) 6 22 Ty Montgomery GB 24.6 (26) 6 23 Tevin Coleman ATL 24.4 (20) 6 24 Mike Gillislee NE 26.8 (29) 6 25 Doug Martin TB 28.6 (25) 7 26 DeMarco Murray TEN 29.5 (21) 7 27 Mark Ingram NO 27.7 (24) 7 28 C.J. Prosise SEA 23.3 (27) 7 29 Rob Kelley WAS 24.9 (40) 7 30 Marlon Mack IND 21.7 (31) 7 31 D'Onta Foreman HOU 21.4 (37) 7 32 Theo Riddick DET 26.3 (28) 7 33 Tarik Cohen CHI 22.1 (57) 7 34 Chris Carson SEA 23.0 (59) 7 35 James White NE 25.6 (44) 7 36 Marshawn Lynch OAK 31.4 (45) 7 37 Paul Perkins NYG 22.8 (33) 7 38 Duke Johnson CLE 23.9 (34) 7 39 Thomas Rawls SEA 24.1 (39) 7 40 Spencer Ware KC 25.8 (30) 7 41 Giovani Bernard CIN 25.8 (35) 7 42 Jeremy Hill CIN 24.9 (36) 7 43 Samaje Perine WAS 22.0 (38) 7 44 Jamaal Charles DEN 30.7 (47) 7 45 Bilal Powell NYJ 28.8 (32) 7 46 Terrance West BAL 26.6 (43) 8 47 Danny Woodhead BAL 32.7 (46) 8 48 Jamaal Williams GB 22.4 (48) 8 49 James Conner PIT 22.3 (51) 8 50 Eddie Lacy SEA 27.2 (41) 8 51 Rex Burkhead NE 27.2 (42) 8 52 Chris Thompson WAS 26.9 (77) 8 53 Frank Gore IND 34.3 (56) 8 54 Dion Lewis NE 26.9 (49) 8 55 Latavius Murray MIN 26.5 (50) 8 56 Javorius Allen BAL 26.0 (68) 8 57 Wayne Gallman NYG 22.9 (52) 8 58 Kenneth Dixon BAL 23.6 (53) 8 59 Adrian Peterson NO 32.4 (54) 8 60 T.J. Yeldon JAX 23.9 (55) 8 61 DeAngelo Henderson DEN 24.8 (58) 8 62 Jonathan Stewart CAR 30.4 (60) 8 63 Matt Breida SF 22.5 (62) 8 64 Jerick McKinnon MIN 25.3 (65) 8 65 Kenyan Drake MIA 23.6 (63) 8 66 Matt Forte NYJ 31.7 (64) 8 67 Aaron Jones GB 22.7 (66) 8 68 Wendell Smallwood PHI 23.6 (61) 8 69 Devontae Booker DEN 25.3 (67) 8 70 Jalen Richard OAK 23.9 (76) 8 71 Shane Vereen NYG 28.5 (71) 9 72 Elijah McGuire NYJ 23.3 (73) 9 73 Charles Sims TB 27.0 (74) 9 74 DeAndre Washington OAK 24.5 (75) 9 75 Darren Sproles PHI 34.2 (78) 9 76 Jacquizz Rodgers TB 27.6 (79) 9 77 Chris Johnson ARI 31.9 unr 9 78 LeGarrette Blount PHI 30.7 (70) 9 79 Charcandrick West KC 26.3 (80) 9 80 Alfred Morris DAL 28.7 (86) 9 81 Malcolm Brown RAM 24.3 (81) 9 82 Darren McFadden DAL 30.0 (69) 9 83 Brian Hill ATL 21.8 (82) 9 84 Devante Mays GB 23.3 (85) 9 85 Austin Ekeler LAC 22.3 unr 9 86 Kerwynn Williams ARI 26.2 (90) 9 87 Chris Ivory JAX 29.4 (88) 9 88 Dwayne Washington DET 23.4 (102) 9 89 Alex Collins BAL 23.0 unr 9 90 Jonathan Williams 23.6 (89) 9 91 Robert Turbin IND 27.7 (87) 9 92 Donnel Pumphrey PHI 22.7 (83) 9 93 Joe Williams SF 24.0 (91) 9 94 Zach Zenner DET 26.0 (84) 9 95 Andre Ellington ARI 28.6 (93) 10 96 Benny Cunningham CHI 27.2 (94) 10 97 Tyler Ervin HOU 23.9 (95) 10 98 T.J. Logan ARI 23.0 (98) 10 99 Matt Jones 24.5 (72) 10 100 Ryan Mathews 29.9 (92) 10 101 DeAngelo Williams 34.4 (96) 10 102 Rashad Jennings 32.4 (97) 10 103 Karlos Williams 24.3 (99) 10 104 Christine Michael 26.8 (100) 10 105 Elijah Hood 21.4 (101) 10 106 Alfred Blue HOU 26.3 (103) 10 107 Lance Dunbar RAM 27.6 (104) There's a new tier near the top; if I knew that David Johnson would be back for the fantasy playoffs then he'd be on Bell's tier (and if I knew that Zeke wasn't going to have any new off-the-field incidents then he'd be there too). Kareem Hunt's impressive start vaults him up to the Mixon/Ajayi/Cook tier. Ranking those 4 guys is a tough call. Howard falls off that tier with 2 rough games; you might blame his situation but 1) his situation is likely to stay bad this year with competition from Cohen & that shaky oline/offense and 2) this shows how situation-dependent he is, especially with his lack of passing game role. He also moves behind Henry & Hyde, who are looking good so far. Kamara & Abdullah don't have big fantasy totals but I am pretty happy with their workloads. By tier 6, players' redraft value starts to matter a lot. Moving up: Anderson, Montgomery, Kelley, Lynch. Moving down: Ingram, Murray, Perkins, Powell. The NE backfield is clarifying. The BAL backfield is muddying. Carson & Cohen are emerging but it's unclear if they'll be more than borderline fantasy starters or how long they'll stick around. In the bottom half of the rankings I probably haven't changed things as much as I should. Austin Ekeler joins the rankings and Chris Johnson & Alex Collins return.
  3. In one league I'm up by 5, playing against Golden Tate, with Odell Beckham still to go for me. (I could swap Ebron in instead, but I'm going OBJ.) In another league I'm down by 6, playing against Golden Tate, with Ameer Abdullah still to go for me.
  4. Using the numbers from here, for 12-team redraft leagues: In a snake draft, the team that drafts first gets a 6% advantage over the team that drafts last. It's as if the team with the 1st pick got a free extra pick: the 73rd pick of the draft (pick 7.01). In a straight draft, the team that drafts first gets a 33% advantage over the team that drafts last. It's as if the team with the 1st pick got a free extra pick: the 3rd pick of the draft (pick 1.03).
  5. I finally got around to running these comparisons on the other positions, using my preseason rankings and the DLF & FBG rankings from the same time period. Starting with the players where I disagree the most with DLF/FBG consensus: Guys that I'm relatively high on WR39 Josh Gordon TE5 Evan Engram WR32 Will Fuller TE19 Jonnu Smith QB10 Mitchell Trubisky TE11 Gerald Everett QB12 Patrick Mahomes WR48 Taywan Taylor WR22 John Ross WR20 Mike Williams TE15 Adam Shaheen QB39 Bryce Petty WR46 Chris Hogan WR27 Josh Doctson TE7 David Njoku WR3 Amari Cooper WR74 Dede Westbrook TE46 Jeff Heuerman TE6 O.J. Howard TE34 Ladarius Green WR18 Corey Coleman QB42 Robert Griffin III QB36 C.J. Beathard TE20 Austin Seferian-Jenkins WR73 Chad Williams WR40 Laquon Treadwell QB27 Teddy Bridgewater Guys that I'm relatively down on TE44 Jake Butt QB45 Joe Flacco QB9 Cam Newton QB20 Matthew Stafford TE13 Jimmy Graham TE12 Greg Olsen WR51 Golden Tate WR68 DeSean Jackson WR28 Jarvis Landry WR87 Rishard Matthews WR103 Robert Woods QB23 Ben Roethlisberger WR108 Cole Beasley QB24 Philip Rivers WR65 Breshad Perriman WR23 Doug Baldwin WR49 Emmanuel Sanders WR47 Jamison Crowder TE16 Kyle Rudolph QB29 Eli Manning WR5 Antonio Brown WR127 Eli Rogers WR34 Donte Moncrief WR111 Tavon Austin Relative to consensus, I like rookies, draft pedigree, and injured/suspended players. I dislike low-upside veterans, including slot receivers. And there are some cases where I just have a different take on individual players (like Butt, Newton, and Perriman). I think I should have Emmanuel Sanders higher (especially with Siemian looking good), and some slight shifts to a few other players, but for the most part these lists still seem about right to me.
  6. Based on the calcomatic ownership data, here's what the typical roster looks like (and a comparison to last year): 2017 rosters: # $ QB 2.7 $35.5 RB 5.5 $81.4 WR 6.4 $84.3 TE 2.5 $29.2 PK 2.2 $8.4 DT 2.3 $11.0 Tot 21.6 $249.8 2016 rosters: # $ QB 2.8 $34.9 RB 5.6 $77.4 WR 6.1 $90.5 TE 2.7 $27.1 PK 2.3 $8.7 DT 2.3 $11.3 Tot 21.8 $249.8 Average player on the roster is 14.2% owned (vs. 13.4% in 2016).
  7. Wright & Wheaton probably should be owned in most dynasty leagues, and Gentry in deeper leagues. I'll pass on the rest. Thompson & Bellamy - these guys are 28 years old, they've been bouncing around the league for a while and have never done much of anything on offense. They're special teamers who provide some depth at WR. Tre McBrde - he failed to crack the Titans' lineup back before they invested in WR, spent most of his time on the practice squad, and just joined the Bears a couple weeks ago after he was cut by the Titans. I guess he has a better shot than Thompson or Bellamy, but that isn't saying much. Tanner Gentry - UDFA, good production at Wyoming, showed well in preseason, didn't make the initial 53, called back up after White's injury. Has an uphill battle to NFL relevance, but at least has some upside. Wright is a first rounder who had a 1000 yard season in Tennessee. Wheaton has been the 3rd receiver in Pittsburgh and his numbers in 2014-15 were in the same ballpark as what Emmanuel Sanders did in Pittsburgh. Neither of them seems that great but they each have a reasonable shot at being Chicago's top receiver this year.
  8. Butt & Rivera are both on IR.
  9. My top 13 RBs, with tier breaks: 1. LeVeon Bell 2. David Johnson 3. Ezekiel Elliott 4. Leonard Fournette 5. Todd Gurley 6. Christian McCaffrey 7. Devonta Freeman 8. Melvin Gordon 9. Joe Mixon 10. Jay Ajayi 11. Kareem Hunt 12. Dalvin Cook 13. Jordan Howard
  10. This thread is for my analysis of the 2018 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class. Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, and QB. I also sometimes have them for TE and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings. My thoughts on this draft class (and future ones) at the end of last year: Two games so far this year is a tiny sample size, plus there's some other screwy early season stuff going on with my spreadsheets. But I can at least identify which of the players that I mentioned are off to a great start statistically this year and which ones are off to a good start. At WR, off to a great start: Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), James Washington (Okla St). Off to a good start: Courtland Sutton (SMU), Darren Carrington (Utah). At RB, off to a great start: Saquon Barkley (Penn State). Also, not mentioned before the season: Ronald Jones (USC) and Bryce Love (Stanford). Off to a good start: Nick Chubb (Georgia), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Royce Freeman (Oregon). At QB, off to a great start: Mason Rudolph (Okla St), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC). Off to a good start: Josh Rosen (UCLA), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Jake Browning (Washington), Logan Woodside (Toledo). Notably missing from these lists: WR Equanimeous St. Brown and RB Derrius Guice.
  11. The Saints have consistently had a good offense and a bad defense. Their ranks in DVOA: Off Def ST 2006 8 22 14 2007 12 30 25 2008 4 26 22 2009 2 17 28 2010 11 10 21 2011 2 28 12 2012 9 32 24 2013 5 10 24 2014 7 31 11 2015 7 32 26 2016 6 31 27 Two seasons they had an amazing offense rather than just a good one (2009 & 2011). Two seasons they had an averageish defense instead of a bad one (2010 & 2013). Those are the 4 times that they made the playoffs in the past decade (plus 2006, when 10-6 was enough to win the division).
  12. Howard got popped right after the ball got there. That's a tough catch to make, and it's not clear that he would've gotten into the end zone even if he did catch it (watching the replay, it looks like his hands never crossed the goal-line). It could've been the end of the game with the clock running out at the half yard line. On the Bellamy target on first down it looked like Glennon did everything he could and the receiver just didn't bring it in. On the Howard target on second down I blame Glennon (for not getting the ball there sooner) more than I blame Howard (for not catching it).
  13. Lambo the biggest surprise so far. Looks like I underestimated the number of cuts, given that there have been 5 so far and my numbers add up to 4.2 total cuts for the entire season. The distribution of cuts is roughly as expected. I expected 0.7 cuts among the guys rated 0.90 or higher (there has been 1), 1.0 cuts among the guys rated 0.81-0.89 (there have been 2), and 2.4 cuts among the guys rated 0.80 or lower (there have been 3).
  14. Last year Allen Robinson drew a league-high 9 pass interference calls, and DeSean Jackson led the NFL with 169 yards of pass interference yardage. On average (among receivers with 50+ targets) there was 1 DPI call for every 28 receptions, and 1 DPI yard for every 22 receiving yards.
  15. Too late to use this info, but here are some of my favorite lightly owned (< 5% ownership) guys: 0.74% TE Marcedes Lewis JAX $2 - Likely starting TE and it doesn't take much to be worth $2 0.77% WR Laquon Treadwell MIN $5 - 1st rounder could step up in year 2; likely to at least be involved this year as their #3 WR 0.81% TE Maxx Williams BAL $3 - Has a shot to be the TE on a team where the shell of Dennis Pitta caught 86 passes last year 0.90% WR Jeremy Kerley NYJ $3 - A contender for snaps+targets in the Jets' wide open WR corps 1.16% WR Markus Wheaton CHI $3 - The highest paid Bears' WR; who knows how things will shake out - he could wind up as their top WR 1.51% WR ArDarius Stewart NYJ $3 - Also a contender for snaps+targets in the Jets' wide open WR corps 1.56% WR John Ross CIN $6 - Top 10 pick could have a big role by the end of the year which is when it really counts 1.71% WR Tyler Boyd CIN $3 - Had 600 receiving yards as a rookie; people are assuming his role will shrink but it also could grow 2.18% WR Jaron Brown ARI $3 - Slots 2-4 in the ARI WR pecking order are up for grabs, and Palmer could bounce back 2.55% WR Marqise Lee JAX $6 - Likely starting receiver 2.65% WR Jermaine Kearse NYJ $3 - Another contender for snaps+targets in the Jets' wide open WR corps 2.78% WR Jordan Matthews BUF $10 - Could be the go-to receiver in Buffalo 3.04% WR Kenny Stills MIA $5 - Should have some big games as a deep threat for Cutler 3.14% RB Kerwynn Williams ARI $2 - Could be a solid fantasy starter if DJ goes down 3.54% RB Javorius Allen BAL $2 - Baltimore RB rotation is up in the air; could shake out in his favor 3.73% WR Demaryius Thomas DEN $24 - Relatively safe bet for 1000 yards and has a chance to bounce back for another big season 4.37% RB Alvin Kamara NO $8 - Could get 5 rec/g in the Sproles role, or a bunch of carries if there's an AP/Ingram injury, and it's the late-season role that counts I own 4 of these guys (Marcedes, Maxx, Markus, and ArDarius), and would probably have more if I had known these ownership levels in advance.