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ZWK

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  1. Obviously it depends on the price. I just tried to trade for them and got shot down because the guy wanted more than I was willing to pay. Projections right now should have NE as the top defense over the rest of the season, and for the wk 15-16 fantasy playoffs. Obviously you shouldn't have them projected to match what they've been doing, and obviously there is enough noise from week to week so that they are unlikely to be the #1 defense in any given week. And probably some other defense will outscore them over the rest of the season thanks to a bunch of DST touchdowns. But we don't know which defense that will be, so we can't follow the strategy of going after that mystery defense. So on average I'd expect "get the Patriots D" to result in more points (and more fantasy playoffs points) than whatever you'll wind up doing if you don't have them.
  2. +107 Used O - PHI, BAL, DAL, LAR, KC D - BAL, NE, DAL, LAC, PHI This week O - Atlanta D - Washington
  3. +100 Used O - PHI, BAL, DAL, LAR D - BAL, NE, DAL, LAC This week O - Kansas City Chiefs D - Philadelphia Eagles
  4. And I'm out. I rostered 15 RWT for 7 starting slots, but this week I had 4 on bye (Kittle, Breida, Herndon, Enunwa) and 4 more out with injuries (Barkley, McLaurin, Singletary, Gabriel), which meant no best ball for me: all 7 active players were forced into my starting lineup. And those 7 were not so hot this week, with JJSS & Conley having their worst games of the season and no one especially stepping up. Big games from Jameis Winston & Matt Prater continued the beautiful year from my QBs & PKs, but were not enough to carry me above the cut line.
  5. +70 Used O - PHI, BAL, DAL D - BAL, NE, DAL Week 3 O - LA Rams D - LA Chargers
  6. I'm also worried about the possible switch to the rookie QB. McLaurin is off to an amazing start through 3 games, especially for a 3rd round rookie, with 16/257/3 on 24 targets. The Keenum-McLaurin connection is clearly working. Part of why McLaurin fell as far as he did in the NFL draft is that he was rarely targeted in college. His last season he had an astounding 14.3 yards per target, but just 49 targets in total over 14 games, leaving him with just 50 yards per game and only 701 out of Ohio State's 5100 passing yards. Good things happened when the ball came his way, it just didn't come that way often. He is already just about half way to his target total from his biggest college season just 3 games into his first NFL season. And what a lot of people don't realize is that the promising rookie quarterback who they're clamoring for as Keenum's replacement is actually the very same Ohio State quarterback who rarely looked McLaurin's way last year, Dwayne Haskins (source). At tOSU he threw more passes to each of Parris Campbell, KJ Hill, and Johnnie Dixon than he did to Terry McLaurin, and even Austin Mack & Binjimen Victor were in spitting distance (within 1 target per game of him). I'm a little nervous about where he'll throw it with Washington.
  7. Prescott with 30 pts was my QB3 this week. I'm averaging over 40 ppg at QB so far. I have used 19 of my 26 players; the other 7 players ($46) haven't cracked my lineup yet and at least one of those never will ($6 Quincy Enunwa). 2 players have started all 3 games: JuJu Smith-Schuster and Terry McLaurin. My roster, my writeup, my scoring so far: Pos Player $$ St Starter Pts QB Jameis Winston $13 0 0.00 QB Dak Prescott $12 2 82.80 QB Daniel Jones $4 1 43.60 RB Saquon Barkley $36 2 36.90 RB Duke Johnson $9 0 0.00 RB Matt Breida $9 2 23.50 RB Devin Singletary $8 1 12.30 RB Frank Gore $4 2 31.20 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster $30 3 44.30 WR Curtis Samuel $12 2 30.60 WR Josh Gordon $6 1 16.30 WR Quincy Enunwa $6 0 0.00 WR Taylor Gabriel $5 1 32.20 WR Terry McLaurin $4 3 59.70 WR Chris Conley $4 1 21.70 TE Travis Kelce $29 2 46.60 TE George Kittle $25 1 17.40 TE Chris Herndon $8 0 0.00 PK Matt Prater $4 1 11.80 PK Matt Gay $3 1 16.90 PK Daniel Carlson $3 0 0.00 PK Austin Seibert $3 1 14.10 DT Detroit Lions $4 0 0.00 DT San Francisco 49ers $3 2 29.00 DT Cincinnati Bengals $3 0 0.00 DT New York Jets $3 1 17.00 Quarterback, kicker, and defense have been the strengths of my team so far. On the whole, the cheap guys are coming through more than the studs. It could be a struggle to survive while Barkley is out.
  8. Used O - BAL, PHI D - BAL, NE Week 3 O - Dallas D - Dallas
  9. Updating this a year later, I now own the most of: TJ Hockenson, Sammy Watkins, Gerald Everett, Jalen Richard, and Will Dissly. Part of the story here is that I play in a lot of TE premium leagues, and I tend to prioritize the position more than other owners do. So 3 of the top 5 most owned right now are TEs (and 3 of the top 6 a year ago). There is also some inertia, with Watkins & Everett sticking among my most owned. I targeted Hockenson in rookie drafts, especially in TE premium leagues where I had him neck-and-neck with Jacobs for the top rookie (or for the #2 spot behind Murray in superflex leagues). I was generally able to draft him several picks after that. He was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft, every single scouting report about him was glowing (as was his PFF grade), he had great production and above average size/athleticism, he overtook 1st rounder Noah Fant as his college team's top TE (like DeAndre Hopkins did to Watkins). This is looking like a good choice, as we've gotten more and more positive news through training camp, preseason games, and wk1. It now seems like the top 6 TEs include Hockenson, and they're all on the same tier, and it's not that clear how to order them. Watkins is someone who I've been up and down on all offseason. After years of believing in his talent (based mainly on what I thought of him entering the league and his great 2nd season), I finally downgraded him after his unimpressive 2018 season on the best passing offense in the NFL while basically healthy (or at least as close to that as he can get). But when it looked like Hill was at risk of a serious suspension I gave Watkins a pretty big boost as potentially the top receiver in the top passing offense; then Hill came through that in the clear and Watkins dropped back down; now Hill is out for several weeks with an injury and Watkins put up a huge wk1. All of this is mostly beside the point for why I own so much of him - I own him now in the same leagues where I owned him a year ago, and I tried to move him this offseason (at least up until Hill's suspension worries started) but couldn't find any takers. Gerald Everett is similarly on my rosters mainly because of how I saw him in the past. He was a relatively promising TE prospect coming into the league as an athletic 2nd rounder, but now he's into his 3rd season and usually good NFL TEs have shown more than he has by this point. He has hung on to some upside in my mind because PFF loved him last year (despite his meager totals), but if he continues to not show much this year then his value in my eyes will drop pretty fast. Jalen Richard I someone who I acquired a lot of during last season and early this offseason, beginning when he had established himself as a relatively high volume receiving back for the 2018 season and ending when Oakland drafted Josh Jacobs. He was available pretty cheap and looked like he had a reasonable shot at being a borderline fantasy starter in PPR leagues; that became less likely when they drafted Jacobs and then even less likely now that we've seen the week 1 usage patterns. Will Dissly had a couple big games to start last year and looked like he had a shot to be a surprise fantasy starter with decent fantasy value at least in TE premium leagues. But the buzz was cut short when an injury knocked him out for the year which was a negative for his long-term fantasy prospects, and also meant that we'd stop getting much new information about his actual ability level. So I downgraded my opinion of him a bit (from where it was after 2018 wk3) to account for the injury and then froze it. Other people gave up on him to a larger degree. So I now own him in both in leagues where I was the one to grab him when he flashed in early 2018, and in leagues where I was able to acquire him for free or cheap since then. He seemed to have recovered surprisingly quickly from his injury, but had a setback wk1; I'm hoping he gets healthy soon both because that's good and because it means that I'll start getting new information about his abilities again so I can cut him if he isn't any good. Of the other guys that I owned a lot of a year ago: Eric Ebron went from underrated to overrated with his big 2018 season and I traded him away where I could (then the bubble popped with Luck's retirement and I may go down with the ship in the leagues where I still have him), John Ross looks to be having a 3rd year breakout and I'm glad that I still own some of him but I also moved on from him in some leagues this offseason, Adam Shaheen is on the edge of being unrosterable even in TE premium, and Darren Sproles is back to about where he was a year ago (potential RB3) but I moved on from him in some leagues when things looked worse.
  10. Used O: PHI 😧 BAL Week 2 Offense: Baltimore Defense: New England
  11. I disagree because down by 28 is different from down 14... you kick the 2 XP THEN go for 2 when you are down by 14 First of all, if you definitely need to go for 2 at some point then going for it earlier than you need to isn't going to hurt you. You might learn sooner that you're not going to be able to pull it off, but it won't reduce your chances of winning. So it's not a stupid move (let alone an obviously stupid one). And second, going for 2 when down by 4 TDs actually helps you even more than going for 2 when down by 2 TDs. The advantage of going for 2 earlier is that it lets you change your decision about whether or not to go for 2 after other TDs depending on whether you succeed or fail, and you get more opportunities to do that. This thread probably isn't the right place to go into that in detail with all the numbers.
  12. Going for 2 was the right call there, for the same reasons that folks gave for why to go for 2 in the old You're down by 14 with 7:00 minutes left in the game thread. If you score 4 TDs and kick the XP every time, then you're playing for the tie & overtime. If you go for 2 and make it then you could win in regulation (assuming you get those 4 TDs), and if you miss you still have a chance to make up for that miss.
  13. I checked the numbers for 2 leagues that I'm in. League A from 1 year ago: 67% of players still on my roster, 82% of starters from then still on my roster from 2 years ago: 47% of players, 64% of starters from 3 years ago: 25% of players, 36% of starters League B from 1 year ago: 44% of players, 50% of starters from 2 years ago: 28% of players, 38% of starters from 3 years ago: 16% of players, 13% of starters This does look close to exponential decay. In League B about about 1/2 of my roster turns over each year, and in League A about 1/3 of my roster (and 1/4 of my starters) turn over each year.
  14. What is the decay rate of your dynasty roster? What fraction of the players on your roster right now will still be on your roster 1 year from now? Or - the version of this question that we can currently check - what fraction of the players that were on your roster a year ago are still on your roster right now? I want actual numbers, not guesses. So pick a dynasty league that you're in, go check who was on your roster a year ago, and count how many of those players are on your roster today. Put the answer in the poll. IR & taxi squad count as "on your roster", and if a player left your roster and then came back let's count that as "still on your roster". (In MFL, you can do this by going to last year's league site, then on your team page go to "Scoring History". The players who do not have an X in the week 1 column are the ones who were on your roster for week 1, and that's the week to look if you're doing this right after I posted this.) What about the guys who were starting for you a year ago? How many of your starters from a year ago (2018 week 1 as I post this) are still on your roster today and how many are gone? (In MFL, those are the guys whose with an S in the week 1 column.) If you're feeling extra curious, or extra generous with your time & data, then you can go back 2 or 3 years and see how many of those guys are still around on your roster. No polls for that; you can just post and discuss. I am curious to see how quickly rosters turn over, how much of it is just churn at the bottom of the roster and how much is turnover in starters, and how closely in resembles exponential decay.
  15. From the ownership numbers and pricing, I calculated that the average roster has: QB: 2.6 for $34 (last year: 2.9 for $31) RB: 5.3 for $83 (last year: 5.4 for $86) WR: 5.7 for $82 (last year: 6.4 for $83) TE: 2.3 for $30 (last year: 2.5 for $30) PK: 2.2 for $10 (last year: 2.3 for $8) DT: 2.2 for $12 (last year: 2.3 for $11) in total, 20.3 for $250 (last year: 21.8 for $250)