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  1. Preseason WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/15/16. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23.8 (1) 2 2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24.2 (2) 2 3 Sammy Watkins BUF 23.2 (3) 2 4 Julio Jones ATL 27.6 (4) 2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 28.1 (5) 3 6 Allen Robinson JAX 23.0 (6) 3 7 Amari Cooper OAK 22.2 (7) 3 8 A.J. Green CIN 28.1 (8) 3 9 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (9) 4 10 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (10) 4 11 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (12) 4 12 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (13) 4 13 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (11) 4 14 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15) 4 15 Keenan Allen SD 24.3 (19) 5 16 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (14) 5 17 Corey Coleman CLE 22.2 (20) 5 18 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (16) 5 19 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 5 20 Josh Doctson WAS 23.7 (21) 5 21 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (18) 6 22 Jarvis Landry MIA 23.8 (25) 6 23 Jeremy Maclin KC 28.3 (23) 6 24 Laquon Treadwell MIN 21.2 (24) 6 25 Josh Gordon CLE 25.4 (31) 6 26 Julian Edelman NE 30.3 (22) 6 27 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32.4 (27) 6 28 Jordy Nelson GB 31.3 (26) 6 29 Donte Moncrief IND 23.1 (28) 6 30 Jordan Matthews PHI 24.1 (29) 7 31 Golden Tate DET 28.1 (32) 7 32 Martavis Bryant PIT 24.7 (30) 7 33 Doug Baldwin SEA 28.9 (34) 7 34 Allen Hurns JAX 24.8 (37) 7 35 Phillip Dorsett IND 23.7 (40) 7 36 Tyler Lockett SEA 23.9 (42) 7 37 Leonte Carroo MIA 22.6 (35) 7 38 Sterling Shepard NYG 23.5 (47) 7 39 William Fuller HOU 22.4 (41) 7 40 Devin Funchess CAR 22.3 (49) 7 41 John Brown ARI 26.4 (38) 7 42 Michael Thomas NO 23.5 (46) 7 43 Michael Floyd ARI 26.8 (39) 7 44 Eric Decker NYJ 29.5 (36) 7 45 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33.0 (33) 7 46 Tyler Boyd CIN 22.8 (50) 7 47 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29.4 (43) 7 48 DeSean Jackson WAS 29.7 (44) 7 49 Breshad Perriman BAL 23.0 (45) 7 50 Davante Adams GB 23.7 (51) 8 51 Nelson Agholor PHI 23.3 (52) 8 52 Michael Crabtree OAK 29.0 (53) 8 53 Travis Benjamin SD 26.7 (54) 8 54 Stefon Diggs MIN 22.8 (55) 8 55 Marvin Jones DET 26.5 (57) 8 56 Sammie Coates PIT 23.4 (65) 8 57 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 23.4 (48) 8 58 Willie Snead NO 23.9 (56) 8 59 Tajae Sharpe TEN 21.7 (119) 8 60 Malcolm Mitchell NE 24.1 (63) 9 61 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27.2 (114) 9 62 Tavon Austin RAM 25.5 (59) 9 63 Torrey Smith SF 27.6 (60) 9 64 Devin Smith NYJ 24.5 (61) 9 65 Jaelen Strong HOU 22.6 (72) 9 66 Charles Johnson MIN 27.5 (98) 9 67 Kendall Wright TEN 26.8 (58) 9 68 Braxton Miller HOU 23.8 (62) 9 69 Markus Wheaton PIT 25.6 (71) 9 70 Bruce Ellington SF 25.0 unr 9 71 Mike Wallace BAL 30.1 (73) 9 72 Kenny Britt RAM 27.9 (70) 10 73 Jared Abbrederis GB 25.7 (88) 10 74 Paul Richardson SEA 24.4 (89) 10 75 Kenny Stills MIA 24.4 (113) 10 76 Chris Hogan NE 27.9 (69) 10 77 Jeff Janis GB 25.2 (81) 10 78 Ty Montgomery GB 23.6 (64) 10 79 Ted Ginn CAR 31.4 (67) 10 80 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26.6 (68) 10 81 Justin Blackmon JAX 26.6 (75) 10 82 Kamar Aiken BAL 27.3 (76) 10 83 DeAndre Smelter SF 24.7 (74) 10 84 Chris Conley KC 23.9 (82) 10 85 Marqise Lee JAX 24.8 (79) 10 86 Rishard Matthews TEN 26.9 (86) 10 87 Cody Latimer DEN 23.9 (80) 10 88 Eli Rogers PIT 23.7 unr 10 89 Pierre Garcon WAS 30.1 (66) 10 90 Steve Smith BAL 37.4 (77) 10 91 Trevor Davis GB 23.2 (84) 10 92 Mohamed Sanu ATL 27.0 (107) 10 93 D.J. Foster NE 22.3 (103) 10 94 Robert Woods BUF 24.4 (105) 11 95 Victor Cruz NYG 29.8 (83) 11 96 Rashard Higgins CLE 21.9 (106) 11 97 Moritz Boehringer MIN 22.9 (85) 11 98 Vincent Jackson TB 33.6 (87) 11 99 Quinton Patton SF 26.1 (101) 11 100 Danny Amendola NE 30.8 (78) 11 101 Chris Moore BAL 23.2 (100) 11 102 Terrance Williams DAL 27.0 (92) 11 103 Brian Quick RAM 27.2 (94) 11 104 Albert Wilson KC 24.1 (93) 11 105 Corey Brown CAR 24.7 (95) 11 106 Brandon Coleman NO 24.2 (97) 12 107 Pharoh Cooper RAM 21.5 (117) 12 108 Rueben Randle PHI 25.3 (90) 12 109 Steve Johnson SD 30.1 (91) 12 110 Marquess Wilson CHI 24.0 (96) 12 111 Mike Thomas RAM 22.0 (102) 12 112 Jakeem Grant MIA 23.8 unr 12 113 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 25.5 (104) 12 114 Anquan Boldin DET 35.9 (99) 12 115 Cecil Shorts HOU 28.7 (108) 12 116 Eddie Royal CHI 30.3 (109) 12 117 James Jones SD 32.4 (110) 12 118 Rod Streater KC 28.6 (111) 12 119 Justin Hunter TEN 25.3 (112) 12 120 Devin Lucien NE 23.2 (115) 12 121 Ricardo Louis CLE 22.4 (116) 12 122 Demarcus Robinson KC 21.9 (118) 12 123 Josh Huff PHI 24.9 (121) 12 124 Jordan Payton CLE 23.0 (122) 12 125 Nelson Spruce RAM 23.7 unr 12 126 Brandon LaFell CIN 29.8 (124) 12 127 Keyarris Garrett CAR 23.9 unr Not a ton of movement since May, other than a few obvious guys emerging (Tajae Sharpe, Terrelle Pryor, etc.). Keenan Allen & Jarvis Landry have moved up a few slots based mainly on upgrading my opinion of their prospects for this year -- I put more stock in other people's opinions for redraft than for dynasty, so this has made my rankings closer to conventional wisdom. Larry Fitzgerald has slid down the rankings for similar reasons -- I'm less high than I was on his redraft prospects, and he's 33 years old.
  2. Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy looks like an interesting comparison in terms of dynasty value. Talent / Career Production: Edge to McCoy. He has more Pro Bowls & All Pros, better career stats, and a better reputation. Recent Production: Edge to Martin. He had an All Pro 2015 season with excellent rushing numbers, while McCoy only had a Pro Bowl season with good numbers. Advanced stats like DVOA and PFF grades basically agree. They both had down years in 2014, and Martin's was much worse (51 YFS per game with terrible efficiency numbers), which shrinks Martin's edge. Age & Health: Edge to Martin, who is 6 months younger (born Jan 1989 vs. July 1988 for McCoy). They have both been relatively healthy, though McCoy missed some time last year with hamstring & MCL injuries and Martin's poor production in 2013 & 2014 might have been partially related to playing through injuries. Team's Commitment: Slight edge to McCoy. McCoy signed a big contract with Buffalo a year ago, and Martin signed a slightly less big contract with Tampa this offseason. McCoy's contract had significantly more guaranteed money ($26M vs. $15M), so it would be harder for Buffalo to move on anytime soon even though the contract is a year older. Both teams are talking up their lead RB. Situation / Competition: Edge to McCoy. Both look like workhorse RBs. Charles Sims looks to be tougher competition for snaps than any RB on Buffalo, though Buffalo has been drafting a lot of late-round RBs so some competition might emerge (as it briefly did from Karlos Williams). Buffalo has a much better offensive line, according to PFF. Tyrod Taylor & Jameis Winston were both new starters last year who showed the potential to lead a good offense. Winston seems more promising but Taylor's running ability helps open things up for the RB. Fantasy Strengths: Edge to McCoy in PPR, Martin in non-PPR. McCoy gets used more heavily in the passing game. Martin gets the goal-line work, while McCoy lost a lot of those carries to Karlos Williams last year (we'll see what happens going forward). Last year, they both had 15.1 ppg in PPR, while Martin outscored McCoy by 0.7 ppg in non-PPR. Off-Field Issues: Edge to Martin. McCoy was involved in a bar fight this offseason, but nothing came of it. Redraft Rankings: Slight edge to Martin. Martin is ahead of McCoy in 5 of the 6 sources on the FBG ADP page, by 4 spots on average. On average, FBG's 4 projectors have Martin projected for 0.3 ppg more in non-PPR and McCoy projected for 0.2 ppg more in PPR (Dodds favors McCoy in both, Wood favors Martin in both, and Henry & Tremblay are split by format). Question 1: Who do you like more in dynasty? Question 2: Why is Martin so far ahead of McCoy in most dynasty rankings?
  3. Basically they're guesses, after looking at obvious sources of information where it seemed relevant (depth charts, Rotoworld blurbs, news, last year's performance, contract, etc).
  4. Drafting RBs in the early rounds is fine, because what matters there is how much of an edge they give you over the RBs who are going later (compared with the same question at other positions). That is the idea behind value based drafting, and it applies to this draft as much as anywhere. But you never want to draft a RB as your flex in this league, outside of very rare cases (e.g., if you're on the clock late in the draft and it's suddenly announced that Mark Ingram is out for the year and Tim Hightower is going to be the workhorse). When you're choosing between RB, WR, and TE for your flex spot, you just want the guy who is going to score the most points, and that is never going to be a 0 ppr RB (outside of very rare cases).
  5. Previous years' writeups: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 a & b, 2010. My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment, follow the numbers except for close calls or breaking news, adjust position values slightly during the draft. I like drafting near the middle because I have more opportunity to grab falling value when my picks are spread out, although it meant that I missed out on this year's big 4 (who went 1-2-4-6). 1.11 QB Packers (Rodgers) GB I never take a QB early in this format, but this year my numbers said otherwise. Turns out I made a mistake in my numbers and the corrected numbers say that I should've taken Jordan Reed. Oops. At least Rodgers wasn't that far back. Also considered: QB Russell Wilson, TE Jordan Reed. 2.06 RB Lamar Miller HOU Just missed out on Jordy Nelson, who was the end of a tier (and a convenient stack). This was a close call between a lot of players. I'm not wild about Miller, but pretty much everyone who I trust has him as a first rounder in standard formats. Also considered: TE Coby Fleener, WR Keenan Allen, WR TY Hilton, TE Delanie Walker, RB Jamaal Charles. 3.11 WR Randall Cobb GB He wasn't quite at the top of my draft board, but I'll give up a few points to double up on the Packers' passing offense. Also considered: WR Julian Edelman, RB Devonta Freeman, WR Brandin Cooks, RB Mark Ingram, WR Jarvis Landry. 4.06 WR Julian Edelman NE Huge PPR upside if he can play 16+ games. I'll bet on his health rather than on a lesser player's production. Also considered: none. 5.11 WR Eric Decker NYJ Surprised to see him fall this far (WR30) after what he's done the past few years, including with Fitzpatrick. Gates, Witten, and Decker were the end of a tier. Also considered: none. 6.06 RB Frank Gore IND Workhorse RB on a good offense, with a chance to score a bunch of touchdowns. This pick was a close call, but uncertainty about injuries kept me away from Ebron & Graham (though their upside is tantalizing, especially Ebron's), positional balance edged me away from John Brown, and the likelihood that I could wait on Tyrod Taylor kept me away from Bortles. Also considered TE Eric Ebron, TE Jimmy Graham, QB Blake Bortles, WR John Brown, RB Ryan Mathews. 7.11 TE Jimmy Graham SEA The (smallish) dropoff from Gore to Duke Johnson as best RB available, plus the fact that my roster is now less thin at RB, means that it's now worth going for the boom or bust TE. If he can make it onto the field, even a hobbled Graham seems likely to reach 40+ receptions, which makes his downside pretty palatable in the 7th round. And he has plenty of upside - he could come through for me big like last year's mid-round boom or bust TE Jordan Reed. Also considered: TE Zach Miller, RB Duke Johnson, QB Tyrod Taylor. 8.06 RB Rashad Jennings NYG The Giants' lead RB, and he has been solid when given a chance. His production last year was worth this draft slot, and he has some upside given the larger workload that he got over the last few games and the buzz about there being less of a committee this year. Tyrod Taylor was a bit higher on my draft board, but I'm going to gamble on Taylor lasting another round (or other good QB value being available, possibly Dalton or Mariota as fallbacks). Also considered: QB Tyrod Taylor. 9.11 QB Titans (Mariota) TEN Settled for Mariota after Taylor didn't fall. Tennessee was QB19 last year, and this year Mariota has another year of experience and is expected to run more. Some downside risk, though, from their potentially RB-heavy thunder & thunder gameplan plus the possibility that he's just not that good. Also considered: TE Charles Clay. 10.06 DEF Broncos DEN Thanks in part to points for yards allowed, the Denver D is good enough to reach the top of my draft board here. Also considered: PK Stephen Gostkowski, RB LeGarrette Blount. 11.11 WR Mohamed Sanu ATL Tough choice here after none of the top kickers fell, with a bunch of similarly rated players near the top. I decided to skip PK & Def since there are a bunch of both near the top of my rankings. Went with Sanu over RB Riddick because I think he has a higher ceiling, and both have pretty decent floors. Riddick seems unlikely to carve out a bigger role than last year (and doesn't get points for receptions), while Sanu could end up with a bunch of targets on an offense desperate for someone besides Julio to throw to (last year, their #2 in receiving yards was Jacob Tamme). Also considered: RB Theo Riddick, DEF Patriots, PK Josh Brown. 12.06 PK Josh Brown NYG Kickers are going relatively quickly in this league, and there are a lot of job security questions among the bottom third of kickers this year. Brown is a solid kicker on a good offense with reasonable playoff chances. Terrible timing, as Brown's suspension was announced a few hours after this pick. Also considered: PK Adam Vinatieri, DEF Bengals, RB Christine Michael. 13.11 PK Robbie Gould CHI Seems worth locking down the PK position with a surefire starter. Also considered: WR Terrance Williams, TE Jacob Tamme, DEF Giants, DEF Rams. 14.06 WR Kenny Britt LA The most likely candidate to be the Rams' top WR (unless Austin has suddenly learned how to run routes past the line of scrimmage). Britt has had surprisingly good per target stats over the years despite being seen as a disappointment and playing with lousy quarterbacks. He has some shot at upside if Goff turns out to be good. The Giants were actually at the top of my draft board, but there are several defenses close behind them so I'm just going to wait on the position until that tier thins out. Also considered: TE Jacob Tamme, DEF Giants, DEF Rams. 15.11 TE Jacob Tamme ATL Boring old guy, likely to remain the Falcons' top receiving TE. He doesn't need to repeat last year's stats to be worth this slot. Also considered: DEF Giants, WR Robert Woods. 16.06 FLEX WR Tajae Sharpe TEN Lucky to have him fall into my lap here. I went to sleep with Karlos Williams predrafted and Robert Woods as my top ranked flex, but fortunately Vector was slow enough for me to see Williams get cut and Sharpe have another nice game with the 1's. Sharpe is the kind of rookie receiver that I love in the second half of the Anarchy draft - a likely starter on a team without a clear #1 WR. Also considered: RB Chris Thompson, RB Javorius Allen, WR Robert Woods. 17.11 DEF Lions DET Down to defense or RB, and there should only be 1 RB going off the board before my last pick. Also considered: DEF Bucs, DEF Cowboys, RB Chris Thompson. 18.06 RB Chris Thompson WAS He seems pretty well locked into the role as his team's receiving back, which is more than I can say for any of the other RBs left. And there's a chance that that role could grow, given the question marks about the rest of Washington's RB corps and the trends around the league (with Riddick, Woodhead, etc.). Also considered: RB Javorius Allen. Positives: Generally got guys who were good values and have high floors (barring injury), and many of my guys have significant upside (including playoff potential). Especially lucky to land Tajae Sharpe when I did, and also happy with Edelman, Decker, R Jennings, Tamme, and C Thompson. I think the last third of the draft played out pretty well for me. Negatives: Not thrilled about my first 3 picks (Rodgers, Miller, Cobb). Given how QBs (like Cutler) & defenses fell, I would've been better off waiting instead of taking Mariota & Denver in rounds 9 & 10. Could be kicker trouble if Josh Brown's conduct costs him more than 1 game. A fair amount of injury risk. The projections which I used to draft unsurprisingly like my team most, but less so than in previous years. After my team, they like BassNBrew, ffgiant, jhexel, and Crippler, with a pretty large pack in striking distance.
  6. Here is my kicker job security list, where the number is something like the probability that the kicker is the yearlong starter for his team, assuming no new injuries. (I posted something similar before the 2014 season.) 1.0 Stephen Gostkowski NE 1.0 Mason Crosby GB 1.0 Justin Tucker BAL 1.0 Adam Vinatieri IND 1.0 Dan Bailey DAL 1.0 Robbie Gould CHI 1.0 Steven Hauschka SEA 0.95 Chandler Catanzaro ARI 0.95 Brandon McManus DEN 0.95 Graham Gano CAR 0.95 Sebastian Janikowski OAK 0.95 Matt Prater DET 0.95 Cairo Santos KC 0.95 Phil Dawson SF 0.95 Ryan Succop TEN 0.90 Chris Boswell PIT 0.90 Dan Carpenter BUF 0.90 Dustin Hopkins WAS 0.90 Josh Lambo SD 0.90 Jason Myers JAC 0.90 Roberto Aguayo TB 0.85 Blair Walsh MIN 0.85 Nick Folk NYJ 0.85 Matt Bryant ATL 0.85 Josh Brown NYG 0.80 Greg Zuerlein LARM 0.80 Nick Novak HOU 0.80 Mike Nugent CIN 0.75 Travis Coons CLE 0.75 Andrew Franks MIA 0.60 Kai Forbath NO 0.50 Cody Parkey PHI
  7. I'm just looking at this link for the first time. It's amazing how little Austin did as a receiver. If you remove the routes labeled "WR Screen", "HB Route", and "Jet Sweep", on the remaining actual receiver routes Austin is left with only 243 receiving yards on 48 targets with 2 TDs. That's very little production, and very inefficient - his 5.06 yards per target on actual receiver routes is even lower than his (already very low) overall YPT. If he's going to get a bigger role in the passing game, presumably it's not going to come by catching 50 WR screens instead of 25 - he's going to have to be more involved as an actual receiver, running routes past the line of scrimmage. And he hasn't had success there yet.
  8. I'm downgrading DGB after this trade. When a young player's team gives up on him, that's a bad sign.
  9. There are some good values throughout the draft. I could see myself going with Newton (QB1, pick 3.06), Wilson (QB4, 5.06), Brady (QB7, 6.10), or Taylor (QB15, 10.11) as my top QB, depending on how the draft shakes out.
  10. That is a ridiculously high percentage of receptions where the point would be to get the ball into his hands in space with blockers out in front. That skill set fits best for a slot WR not someone who is lined up on the line of scrimmage like the X. Think the Patriots infamous 'bubble screen'. The skill set he showed in college would be a nice fit for a slot WR IMHO but I haven't heard where he is lining up. Higgins had success all over the place in 2014. If you remove the 26.6% of his yards that came through screens, he still had 107 non-screen receiving yards per game which was the 8th most in college football (with everyone else getting to keep their screen yards).
  11. I fear that you're overlooking Dennis Pitta. There has been a lot of buzz about him this offseason, including reports that he "is moving well" and recent word that he wasn't even on the PUP list to start training camp. He was TE8 in his last full season and is currently going undrafted in a lot of leagues. He'd be a great value in rd 10, or maybe even bumping Tye in round 8.
  12. The complete quote sounds much less positive: From Cutler's description, White sounds a lot like a rookie who is still figuring things out and adjusting to the NFL game. The only specific thing that Cutler praises White for is his athleticism, but we already knew about that before they drafted him. I don't see anything positive in there about White's development over the past 15 months.
  13. IN - League 3 - ZWK
  14. I don't put all that much effort into trying to predict how a player's value will move. Mostly I just try to buy players that I currently think are undervalued, and sell the guys that I own who I think are overvalued. I look ahead mostly to try to guess how much a player is likely to produce in future years, not how his value will move. If I think that a player is misvalued, I do pay some attention to how quickly I think the market will correct itself in order to decide how eager I should be to try to make a move quickly. For example, if I thought at the start of the offseason "People are overvaluing Rawls because they're acting like he has already won the workhorse role, but I think that he may have to compete to win that big of a role" then I'd be trying to sell him relatively quickly, since my edge seems likely to disappear quickly as news comes out over the course of the offseason. Whereas if I'm thinking "People are overvaluing John Brown because Palmer doesn't have much time left as a top QB, and Brown's production is going to take a dive once he no longer has Palmer in his late prime" then I won't be in as much of a rush to sell him early in the offseason, since it seems less likely that other people will come around to my view over the course of the offseason.
  15. In 2013, Gordon had 117.6 receiving yards per game, which is the 2nd most since 1999 . He averaged 10.35 yards per target, on an offense that threw for 4.59 YPT when throwing elsewhere, which makes it the best season by any WR in Yards Per Target Relative to Teammates. There were some good things about his situation and some bad things (Campbell/Weeden/Hoyer at QB), but his production was way too good to just chalk it up to a good situation.