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About ZWK

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  1. If I was basing my rankings solely on my formulas (which incorporate production, size, and projected 40 time), then they would look something like this: 1 RB Dalvin Cook FSU 2 RB Joe Mixon Oklahoma 3 WR Taywan Taylor Western Ky 4 WR Corey Davis W Mich 5 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 6 RB Samaje Perine Oklahoma 7 RB Leonard Fournette LSU 8 RB Christian McCaffrey Stanford 9 RB Curtis Samuel Ohio State 10 WR Dede Westbrook Oklahoma 11 WR Jalen Robinette Air Force 12 WR Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse 13 WR Josh Malone Tennessee 14 WR Shelton Gibson WVU 15 TE Evan Engram Mississippi 16 RB Elijah Hood N Carolina 17 RB James Conner Pittsburgh 18 RB Jeremy McNichols Boise St 19 RB Wayne Gallman Clemson 20 RB Kareem Hunt Toledo 21 RB D’Onta Foreman Texas 22 RB Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte 23 TE David Njoku Miami FL 24 TE Jordan Leggett Clemson 25 TE O.J. Howard Alabama 26 TE Darrell Daniels Washington 27 WR Carlos Henderson La Tech 28 WR Josh Reynolds Texas A&M 29 WR Keevan Lucas Tulsa 30 WR Cooper Kupp EWU 31 WR Chad Hansen California 32 WR Tanner Gentry Wyoming 33 WR ArDarius Stewart Alabama 34 WR KD Cannon Baylor 35 TE Gerald Everett South Alabama 36 WR Kenny Golladay N Illinois 37 WR DeAngelo Yancey Purdue 38 WR Austin Carr N'western 39 WR John Ross Washington 40 WR Chris Godwin Penn State 41 WR Nicholas Norris Western Ky 42 WR Mike Williams Clemson 43 TE Cole Hikutini Louisville I have smushed together tiers rather than trying to make a precise set of rankings (hence the long strings of players at the same position). I'm ignoring off-the-field issues, injuries, tape, reputation, etc. This is not the ranking that I would use if I was actually drafting today, although it does give a pretty good idea of which players I see as underrated vs. overrated (and thus which players I'd be likely to end up with if I did have a draft today).
  2. My TE stats are less sophisticated than my WR stats, and don't adjust for those sorts of things. I think that TE production is more influenced by context than WR production, so even if I used the kinds of adjustments that I do with WRs the TE stats would still be less predictive of NFL success than the WR stats are. I do generally put less stock in my TE ratings formulas than in my WR ratings formulas. I have Hodges at 6'6", 245 lbs, which helps his rating. I haven't bothered to sort out the various sources of info on projected workout numbers, since I don't have any decisions to make before the combine. 40 times do make a huge difference - if I had Hodges at 4.46 then he'd be my TE3, slightly behind Njoku.
  3. nfldraftscout has Hodges projected to run a 4.78 40, which is slower than all of the guys ahead of him except Hikutini (things might look very different after have their actual combine workout numbers). He had 8.5 yards per target in his most productive season (2016), which is at least a full yard worse than all of the guys ahead of him. He had 49.4 yards per game, which is worse than all of the guys ahead of him except for Daniels. My TE ratings currently don't adjust for things like age or non-receiving production; they probably should.
  4. Zamora is in there. His receiving production was below average (the biggest negative is only 7.5 yards per target), which is a dealbreaker in my WR rating formula.
  5. This is where (an example of) context matters. Is this reason to be concerned or is it a combination of his qb, focus from the defense, and types of catches he's asked to make? (Or other) The number comes from PFF, who says that his drops were "mainly due to concentration lapses on easy catches."
  6. Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving. RB Dalvin Cook FSU Joe Mixon Oklahoma Samaje Perine Oklahoma Leonard Fournette LSU Christian McCaffrey Stanford Curtis Samuel Ohio State Elijah Hood N Carolina James Conner Pittsburgh Jeremy McNichols Boise St Wayne Gallman Clemson Kareem Hunt Toledo D’Onta Foreman Texas Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte TE Evan Engram Mississippi David Njoku Miami FL Jordan Leggett Clemson O.J. Howard Alabama Darrell Daniels Washington Gerald Everett South Alabama Cole Hikutini Louisville Bucky Hodges Virginia Tech Jeremy Sprinkle Arkansas Blake Jarwin Oklahoma State Jake Butt Michigan WR Taywan Taylor Western Ky Corey Davis W Mich JuJu Smith-Schuster USC Dede Westbrook Oklahoma Jalen Robinette Air Force Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse Josh Malone Tennessee Shelton Gibson WVU Curtis Samuel Ohio State Carlos Henderson La Tech Josh Reynolds Texas A&M Keevan Lucas Tulsa Cooper Kupp EWU Chad Hansen California Tanner Gentry Wyoming ArDarius Stewart Alabama KD Cannon Baylor Kenny Golladay N Illinois DeAngelo Yancey Purdue Austin Carr N'western John Ross Washington Chris Godwin Penn State Nicholas Norris Western Ky Mike Williams Clemson I have included weighin numbers from the Senior Bowl and similar events. I'm still waiting on the combine for accurate athleticism info (and size info for many players), and there are various stats (like drop rate from PFF) which I don't have for most players. Here's the drop rate numbers that I do have: Travin Dural 0.0% Taywan Taylor 2.0% Dede Westbrook 4.8% Zay Jones 5.0% O.J. Howard 5.7% Mike Williams 5.8% 2015 WR AVERAGE 7.5% Corey Davis 10.2% Leonard Fournette 16.7%
  7. I haven't included data on drop rate or hand size yet. Shocked to see Butt so low. What criteria did you use here? I look at TDs per game and yards per target, and to a lesser extent yards per game, 25+ yard receptions per game, and first downs per game. I mostly look at each player's best season, and to a lesser extent their second best season. Comparing Butt's best season (2016) to these other guys' best seasons, Butt ranked 8th out of 12 in TD/g (4 TDs in 12 games), 11th in YPT (8.20), 8th in ypg, 9th in 25+/g, and 5th in FD/g. The 4 guys with less ypg than Butt are Daniels & Jarwin (who had significantly higher YPT) and Sprinkle & Price (who had significantly more TDs).
  8. Looking at college receiving production for 12 TEs who have gotten a lot of attention, I have them ranked (from most productive to least productive): 1. Evan Engram Mississippi 2. Jordan Leggett Clemson 3. Gerald Everett South Alabama 4. David Njoku Miami FL 5. Cole Hikutini Louisville 6. O.J. Howard Alabama 7. Bucky Hodges Virginia Tech 8. Jeremy Sprinkle Arkansas 9. Blake Jarwin Oklahoma State 10. Josiah Price Michigan State 11. Darrell Daniels Washington 12. Jake Butt Michigan Looking at size/athleticism (going by nfldraftscout estimates, and using weighins from events like the Senior Bowl where possible), I have those 12 guys ranked: 1. Darrell Daniels Washington 2. David Njoku Miami FL 3. O.J. Howard Alabama 4. Evan Engram Mississippi 5. Jordan Leggett Clemson 6. Jeremy Sprinkle Arkansas 7. Jake Butt Michigan 8. Gerald Everett South Alabama 9. Blake Jarwin Oklahoma State 10. Bucky Hodges Virginia Tech 11. Josiah Price Michigan State 12. Cole Hikutini Louisville Which leads to this overall ranking for those 12 guys: 1. Evan Engram Mississippi 2. David Njoku Miami FL 3. Jordan Leggett Clemson 4. O.J. Howard Alabama 5. Darrell Daniels Washington 6. Gerald Everett South Alabama 7. Cole Hikutini Louisville 8. Jeremy Sprinkle Arkansas 9. Bucky Hodges Virginia Tech 10. Blake Jarwin Oklahoma State 11. Jake Butt Michigan 12. Josiah Price Michigan State with the top 6 rating as relatively strong prospects. nfldraftscout currently has slow 40 time predictions for Adam Shaheen (4.87) and Michael Roberts (4.93); they'll need to do better to crack the top part of the list.
  9. I was relatively down on Bortles even before this season, since his big fantasy year seemed like a fluke where a not-that-good quarterbacking season translated into a surprisingly high number of fantasy points. I had him behind Tyrod & Dalton even then, and ranked him as high as I did mainly because he was a young high draft pick who still had a chance to develop into a better QB. This was discussed a fair amount in this thread last offseason, e.g. here. After Bortles's lousy 2016 season I think that his chances of developing into a good NFL QB have dropped significantly, so I've dropped him pretty far in my rankings.
  10. Give me Watkins, even if Brown was on the other side.
  11. This sounds like you're describing a guy you have ranked around 20, not a guy ranked in the top 12 ahead of 3 of last year's top 5 QBs including one that is essentially the same age as him. Here are the top fantasy QBs over the past two seasons, sorted by ppg. Can you guess how many QBs are ahead of Taylor in ppg over the past two years, but behind him in my rankings? It's also worth noting that "top 5" is not necessarily that meaningful a distinction. Cousins was QB5 in total fpts for the season (though QB6 by VBD if you base it on ppg), and he was worth half as much as QB3 Drew Brees and less than 1/3 as much as QB1 Aaron Rodgers. Andrew Luck, who was in the spot ahead of Cousins this season, was worth more VBD this season than Cousins has been worth for his entire career. In my eyes, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are on their own tier for redraft (though 2 of them are ranked significantly lower in dynasty because they'll be 38+ years old next season). The other players who have the best chance of producing at that level next year are all in my top 10, ahead of Taylor (Luck, Wilson, Ryan, Newton, Roethlisberger). The other QBs in my top 20 are all either solid mid-career guys or young prospects with some promise.
  12. This sounds like you're describing a guy you have ranked around 20, not a guy ranked in the top 12 ahead of 3 of last year's top 5 QBs including one that is essentially the same age as him. Here are the top fantasy QBs over the past two seasons, sorted by ppg. Can you guess how many QBs are ahead of Taylor in ppg over the past two years, but behind him in my rankings?
  13. Flacco has been in the league 9 years and his best finish (ppg, min 8 games) is QB15. He was outside the top 20 the past 2 seasons. I wouldn't mind having him on my roster as a backup, but I'd rather use that slot on someone who has a chance to put up fantasy starter's numbers. Glennon - he wasn't that good when he's played, the Bucs chose to draft a QB to replace him, and there didn't seem to be much of a trade market for him a year ago, so I think he's on the right tier. It's possible that he should be higher up in that tier; I had overlooked that he was hitting free agency now rather than a year from now. Tyrod Taylor and his tier - I'm not all that confident about the rankings within this tier; it's possible that I'll shake them up significantly over the offseason. Things I like about Taylor: he put up fantasy starter's numbers this year, he's had good advanced stats (e.g., PFF grade), he seems likely to be an NFL starter next year, and he has been in a situation that seems not-so-good for a QB's passing numbers. Things I don't like about him: his team might let him go elsewhere (which is pretty much always a bad sign about a player) and he's going to be a 28-year-old whose value has depended heavily on running.
  14. End-of-season quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 9/6/16. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Andrew Luck IND 28.0 (4) 1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 33.7 (2) 2 3 Russell Wilson SEA 28.8 (3) 2 4 Derek Carr OAK 26.4 (11) 2 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 23.8 (5) 2 6 Jameis Winston TB 23.7 (6) 2 7 Matt Ryan ATL 32.3 (15) 2 8 Dak Prescott DAL 24.1 (20) 3 9 Cam Newton CAR 28.3 (1) 4 10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35.5 (7) 4 11 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28.1 (8) 4 12 Carson Wentz PHI 24.7 (14) 4 13 Andy Dalton CIN 29.8 (9) 4 14 Kirk Cousins WAS 29.0 (18) 4 15 Drew Brees NO 38.6 (16) 4 16 Tom Brady NE 40.1 (13) 4 17 Jared Goff RAM 22.9 (12) 4 18 Matthew Stafford DET 29.6 (17) 4 19 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 25.8 (26) 5 20 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29.1 (22) 5 21 Sam Bradford MIN 29.8 (28) 5 22 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 24.8 (19) 5 23 Blake Bortles JAX 25.7 (10) 5 24 Paxton Lynch DEN 23.6 (23) 5 25 Philip Rivers SD 35.7 (25) 5 26 Colin Kaepernick SF 29.8 (35) 5 27 Eli Manning NYG 36.7 (27) 5 28 Tony Romo DAL 37.4 (32) 5 29 Robert Griffin III CLE 27.5 (24) 6 30 Carson Palmer ARI 37.7 (21) 6 31 Trevor Siemian DEN 25.7 (30) 6 32 Matt Barkley CHI 27.0 unr 6 33 Alex Smith KC 35.4 (33) 6 34 Jay Cutler CHI 34.3 (34) 6 35 Geno Smith NYJ 26.9 (39) 6 36 Bryce Petty NYJ 26.3 (36) 6 37 Mike Glennon TB 27.7 unr 6 38 Brian Hoyer CHI 31.9 unr 6 39 Matt Moore MIA 33.1 unr 6 40 Brock Osweiler HOU 26.8 (29) 6 41 Cody Kessler CLE 24.3 (42) 6 42 Jacoby Brissett NE 24.7 (47) 6 43 Joe Flacco BAL 32.6 (38) 7 44 Landry Jones PIT 28.4 unr 7 45 Tom Savage HOU 27.4 unr 7 46 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 22.5 (40) 7 47 Brett Hundley GB 24.2 (45) 7 48 A.J. McCarron CIN 27.0 (43) 7 49 Blaine Gabbert SF 27.9 (31) 7 50 Johnny Manziel CLE 24.7 (41) 7 51 Chase Daniel PHI 30.9 (44) 7 52 EJ Manuel BUF 27.5 unr 7 53 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 34.8 (37) 7 54 Mark Sanchez DAL 30.8 unr 7 55 Kevin Hogan CLE 24.9 unr 7 56 Garrett Grayson NO 26.3 (46) 7 57 Case Keenum RAM 29.5 (48) Biggest changes from last year are the down years from Newton & Wilson, and the big seasons from Carr, Ryan, and Prescott. I wrote a year ago about how, based on the precedent of running QBs like Vick, Culpepper, McNabb, Cunningham, and McNair, being in their late 20s put Cam Newton and Russell Wilson at immediate risk of decline. That was part of why I had them neck-and-neck with Rodgers (an older QB) and Luck (a less proven QB) in the top tier, although perhaps I should've listened more closely to my argument and put them lower. Both of them proceeded to have the worst rushing season of their career, 10+ ypg below their previous low, and to finish outside the top 12 in fppg. I have now dropped them both out of the top tier, with Newton falling significantly farther because I have more confidence in Wilson as a passer. With the best passers going strong until their late 30s, and running QBs showing signs of slowing down in their late 20s, the dynasty format seems to offset a significant chunk of the edge that typical fantasy scoring rules give to running QBs.
  15. Maxx Williams remains in tier 5 because he's young plus highly drafted, with a bit of a bonus because BAL doesn't have a good established starter in front of him and has gotten heavy use out of their TE in recent years. He didn't catch a pass this year, which is a negative, but it's less of a negative when it's largely due to injury. He missed much of the preseason (which put him in a bad position to do much at the start of the season), and then he got an injury in week 4 which sent him to IR. Since TEs often take a few years to develop, there is a tricky question about what to do with young TEs who were good prospects coming into the league but haven't done much yet. Clive Walford won the starting job which is a good sign, but then didn't do much with it which is a bad sign. Maxx Williams had a lost year, largely due to injuries. Tyler Higbee played behind Lance Kendricks and had terrible numbers on a terrible passing offense. Austin Hooper played behind Tamme (when he was healthy) and Toilolo and had good efficiency numbers on a great passing offense. There are differences between these seasons, but to me they seem relatively small & subtle in terms of what they predict about the players' chances of breaking out sometime over the next 3 years. Some more unambiguous negative signs are ASJ & Jace Amaro getting cut from their original team, and Richard Rodgers having his team sign FA Jared Cook. In a TE premium league (1.5 PPR with a flex spot, so that even TE 10-15 have significant value) I'd move guys like Walford up. Winning the starting job and not doing much with it is a sign that he'll have a solid but not spectacular career, and several solid but not spectacular seasons are worth a lot more in TE premium leagues than in standard leagues.