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  1. Is the projections page kept just as up-to-date as the IVC?
  2. There are a lot of good receiving RBs in this draft class. Here's what 6 of the better ones have done over the past season and a half, since the start of the 2015 season: Player g tg rec rec yd rec td rec 20+ yd/tg yd/g Jeremy McNichols 19 90 76 832 10 10 9.2 43.8 Christian McCaffrey 20 85 65 825 6 10 9.7 41.3 Curtis Samuel 20 85 59 760 5 11 8.9 38.0 Joe Mixon 20 59 50 678 8 9 11.5 33.9 Dalvin Cook 19 68 45 600 2 11 8.9 31.6 Donnel Pumphrey 21 78 48 561 2 8 7.2 26.7 These are sorted by receiving yards, and it roughly matches how impressive their receiving production has been. Pumphrey fairly clearly belongs at the bottom of the 6, and Cook in 5th (though he could move up the ranks if he keeps up what he's been doing this year as a receiver). Here are some numbers on their size, athleticism, and rushing: Player age ht wt BMI est 40 att (FD+TD+20)/att Jeremy McNichols 21.7 69 207 30.6 4.55 420 0.36 Christian McCaffrey 21.2 72 202 27.4 4.48 457 0.33 Curtis Samuel 21.1 71 200 27.9 4.52 81 0.51 Joe Mixon 21.1 73 226 29.8 4.49 223 0.43 Dalvin Cook 22.1 71 206 28.7 4.46 388 0.43 Donnel Pumphrey 22.7 68 180 27.4 4.43 500 0.36 (age as of 9/1/17) You can see here why my overall RB rankings have Cook & Mixon ahead of the rest of this group (with both among my top 6 draft-eligible RBs). They seem to be the most likely to succeed in the NFL as runners, based on Cook's production and Mixon's size/athleticism & rushing efficiency (0.43 FD+TD+20/att is very good - average is around 0.35). Pumphrey is last among this group in the overall RB rankings because of his lack of size, and the other 3 are bunched tightly together in between.
  3. Looking through some TE stats, O.J. Howard also looks like a good prospect. The main positives are elite athleticism (NFLdraftscout estimates him as running a 4.57 40) and excellent receiving efficiency (he has averaged 10+ YPT in each one of his 4 seasons). The main downsides are very few TDs (he has yet to top 2 TDs in a season) and mediocre receiving volume (602 rec yds in 2015 was okay, but in his other seasons he's been around 30 ypg). Not good enough to join the guys in my top 8, but he'd fit in there with the next batch of guys. None of the other TEs that I've looked at seem very promising (e.g., Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Jeremy Sprinkle). The one who comes in 3rd by my formulas is Washington TE Darrell Daniels, who also has elite athleticism (estimated 4.54 40) but has less production than Howard (career highs are 250 rec yds and 1 rec TD).
  4. There is a huge group of 10-20 WRs who look pretty good by my numbers who are in a large pack behind Engram. James Washington is in that pack, behind Amba Etta-Tawo, Dede Westbrook, and maybe Cooper Kupp (amazing stats in the FCS). The rest of the pack is the guys with an overall rtg above 3 in my WR spreadsheet, and maybe the ones with an overall rtg between 0 and 3.
  5. He currently rates as my #3 WR prospect, at the front of the pack which is trailing behind Smith-Schuster & Davis. Going by my numbers, these are the 8 who I have rated as top tier: RB: Dalvin Cook, Royce Freeman, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Samaje Perine WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis TE: Evan Engram There are a bunch of other highly regarded players who many see as first round NFL picks, including RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Mike Williams, WR Courtland Sutton, TE OJ Howard, QB Deshaun Watson, and QB Deshone Kizer. A lot can change between now and the draft, so it's hard to predict what we'll think in June about the order or the size of the gaps.
  6. In a 12-team league, I drafted 7 of 15 on my roster and 5 of 9 in this week's starting lineup. 2 drafted players are on my bench as backups. In an 8-team league, I drafted 12 of 20 on my roster and 7 of 13 in this week's starting lineup. 3 drafted players are on my bench injured and 2 are on bye.
  7. I've mentioned Evan Engram a few times as putting up strong numbers even for a WR prospect. How does he stack up against TEs, six games in? Here are a few top 10 leaderboards for college TE seasons (min 30 receptions, mostly limited to drafted TEs): Rec Yards Per Game (since 2005) 104.0 Jace Amaro Texas Tech 2013 98.3 Evan Engram Mississippi 2016 85.0 Ben Braunecker Harvard 2015 82.5 Dennis Pitta BYU 2008 82.3 Chase Coffman Missouri 2008 79.4 Ladarius Green La Lafayette 2010 79.2 Vernon Davis Maryland 2005 75.5 Travis Beckum Wisconsin 2007 74.8 Eric Ebron North Carolina 2013 73.1 Charles Clay Tulsa 2007 Rec Touchdowns Per Game (since 2005) 1.08 MyCole Pruitt Southern Illinois 2014 1.00 Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma 2008 1.00 Rob Gronkowski Arizona 2008 0.89 Tyler Higbee Western Kentucky 2015 0.83 Evan Engram Mississippi 2016 0.83 Chase Coffman Missouri 2008 0.83 Marcedes Lewis UCLA 2005 0.82 Tony Scheffler Western Michigan 2005 0.82 Beau Sandland Montana St. 2015 0.80 Ben Braunecker Harvard 2015 Yards Per Target (since 2005) 13.08 Coby Fleener Stanford 2011 12.29 Clive Walford Miami Fl 2014 12.28 Lance Kendricks Wisconsin 2010 12.04 Evan Engram Mississippi 2016 12.02 Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma 2007 11.93 Vernon Davis Maryland 2005 11.35 Tyler Higbee Western Kentucky 2015 11.28 Travis Kelce Cincinnati 2012 10.89 Evan Rodriguez Temple 2011 10.87 Gary Barnidge Louisville 2006 25+ Yard Receptions Per Game (since 2008) 1.33 Evan Engram Mississippi 2016 1.10 Ladarius Green La Lafayette 2010 0.85 Jace Amaro Texas Tech 2013 0.82 Eric Ebron North Carolina 2012 0.80 Ben Braunecker Harvard 2015 0.80 Rob Gronkowski Arizona 2008 0.77 Thomas Duarte UCLA 2015 0.77 Coby Fleener Stanford 2011 0.75 Maxx Williams Minnesota 2014 0.69 Eric Ebron North Carolina 2013 Rec First Downs Per Game (since 2008) 5.31 Jace Amaro Texas Tech 2013 4.75 Chase Coffman Missouri 2008 4.46 Dennis Pitta BYU 2008 3.67 Evan Engram Mississippi 2016 3.54 Tyler Eifert Notre Dame 2011 3.50 Stephen Anderson California 2014 3.31 Dennis Pitta BYU 2009 3.30 Ladarius Green La Lafayette 2010 3.23 Eric Ebron North Carolina 2013 3.20 Rob Gronkowski Arizona 2008 Engram is the only player to make all 5 of the lists, and he makes the top five on each of them. Ebron makes 4 lists, and several players make 3 (Gronk, Pitta, Coffman, Ladarius Green, Amaro, and Braunecker). Vernon Davis makes 2 out of 3 possible (since he was pre-2008). In terms of college production Engram is on his way to being the top TE on record (going back to 2005). If he keeps up his current pace then it won't be close.
  8. My numbers aren't that extreme yet - he is currently rated as the 17th best WR prospect over the past 12 draft classes (2006-2017). He could move up higher as we get more data on athleticism, drop rate, etc.
  9. My pass rusher spreadsheet is now up. Here's the top 10, based on production in 2015 & 2016 (sacks and tackles for loss, especially against Power 5 schools): Ejuan Price Pittsburgh SR DL DeMarcus Walker FSU SR DL Derek Barnett Tennessee JR DL Myles Garrett Texas A&M JR DL Devonte Fields Louisville SR LB Duke Ejiofor Wk Forest JR DL Jordan Willis Kansas St SR DL Arden Key LSU SO DL Ifeadi Odenigbo N'western SR DL Marquel Lee Wk Forest SR LB Price, Walker, Barnett, Garrett, and Willis all have good production both this year and last year. Fields is up there based only on his 2015 production, and the others have only had top production this year. Barnett also had a huge 2014 which he is not credited for here. This is only based on production, not size, athleticism, age or anything else (e.g., Ejuan Price is a 6th year senior who is 3.5 years older than Derek Barnett).
  10. @Ignoratio Elenchi Is there a page like the "Team Page" for WhatIf? rosters? The current WhatIf? page shows weekly totals, and player scores for this week. It would be cool to also see player scores & starters for each week so I could keep track of what each player has contributed to my fake fantasy team.
  11. Derrius Guice has been lighting it up. He has 18 runs of 20+ yards on his 92 non-red-zone carries, over his LSU career, when an average RB would have 6. The top 7 RBs have some separation from the rest at this point (and are fairly closely packed together). Guice is in that group (at #4) along with Freeman, Cook, Perine, Chubb, Barkley, and Fournette. At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster's big game puts him above the production threshold for this season and into the clear #1 spot in my WR prospect formulas, leapfrogging Corey Davis. His QB, freshman Sam Darnold, has rocketed up the rankings to #3. The top 10 QBs in production this year, by my formula, are: Logan Woodside Toledo Jake Browning Washington Sam Darnold USC Jerod Evans Va Tech Patrick Mahomes II Texas Tech Chad Kelly Miss Baker Mayfield Oklahoma Brett Rypien Boise St Lamar Jackson Louisville Zach Terrell W Mich
  12. That wasn't a DB, it was the ROLB #95. That's Jarvis Jones, whose 40 time was 4.88 at his pro day.
  13. I watched Lamar Jackson's games against Florida State and Clemson, and he looks pretty bad as a passer. Lots of inaccurate throws, and he waits for guys to come open rather than throwing with timing or anticipation. Great runner, but it looks like it's going to be tough for him to transition to the NFL.
  14. I'd be more worried about the disappointing guys who have never had a big year than I am about the guys who had a big year and now are having a down year.
  15. Had my best week of the season with Brady back, putting up 209. Survived the Brady/Bell/Gordon/Graham gambit. David Johnson & Antonio Brown are my MVPs so far, CMike and Jesse James my best value buys. Josh Gordon, Rashad Jennings, Derrick Henry, Devin Funchess, and Virgil Green looking like $42 worth of busts, though that could change for all but 1 of them. My 4 kicker lineup has been coming through for me, my 4 defenses not so much. Scoring so far: Pos Player Price Used Starter Points QB Tom Brady $15 1 33.7 QB Tyrod Taylor $11 3 53.55 QB Case Keenum $2 1 22.7 RB David Johnson $30 5 116.5 RB LeVeon Bell $27 2 47.2 RB Rashad Jennings $12 0 0 RB Derrick Henry $7 0 0 RB Christine Michael $4 4 65.8 WR Antonio Brown $35 4 103.8 WR Julian Edelman $19 3 39 WR Josh Gordon $13 0 0 WR Mohamed Sanu $7 1 19 WR Will Fuller $6 3 63.2 WR Devin Funchess $6 0 0 WR Rishard Matthews $6 1 13.2 WR Kenny Stills $4 3 38.9 WR Davante Adams $3 2 29.8 TE Jimmy Graham $10 2 45.3 TE Clive Walford $6 1 20 TE Virgil Green $4 0 0 TE Crockett Gillmore $3 1 14.8 TE Jesse James $2 3 43.3 PK S. Janikowski $3 2 25.6 PK Nick Folk $2 2 25.1 PK Andrew Franks $2 0 0 PK Ryan Succop $2 1 9.8 DST Dallas Cowboys $3 0 0 DST San Diego Chargers $2 2.5 21 DST Tennessee Titans $2 1 10 DST New Orleans Saints $2 1.5 13 My WhatIf? roster is doing eerily similarly, even though the only overlap is Brady, Bell, Edelman, and PKs/DSTs. It has 20 points more than my actual roster, with a similar weekly pattern including 223 this week.