Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

ZWK

Members
  • Content Count

    3,428
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by ZWK

  1. After last week's scare (overturned to survival by 0.05 in the official scoring), this week my squad had its most comfortable survival since wk2 behind Henry & Rivers. My trio of cheap QBs have been taking turns putting up big games, led by Carr LV. 26 different players have cracked my lineup through 6 weeks - all but WR Michael Thomas ($33), WR Bryan Edwards ($3), PK Sam Sloman ($2), and DST Atlanta Falcons ($2). On the bright side, I'm one of only 62 surviving Michael Thomas teams (5.4%), so he could be a difference-maker for me if he comes back and plays like last year. Pos Player Starts Starter Points QB Kirk Cousins 2 57.3 QB Philip Rivers 1 35.45 QB Derek Carr 3 96.4 RB Derrick Henry 4 98.8 RB Josh Jacobs 5 86 RB Antonio Gibson 4 53.6 RB Benny Snell 1 8.6 RB Frank Gore 1 9 WR Michael Thomas 0 0 WR Julian Edelman 1 25.9 WR Deebo Samuel 2 22.2 WR Parris Campbell 1 14 WR Corey Davis 3 41.6 WR Laviska Shenault 4 51.1 WR TreQuan Smith 3 43.2 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 3 34.3 WR Bryan Edwards 0 0 TE Zach Ertz 2 26.8 TE Darren Waller 4 88.4 TE Irv Smith 2 23.9 TE Jordan Akins 2 25.1 PK Chris Boswell 2 17.6 PK Dustin Hopkins 2 17.1 PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 40 PK Sam Sloman 0 0 DT Tennessee Titans 2 15 DT Atlanta Falcons 0 0 DT Jacksonville Jaguars 1 5 DT Detroit Lions 1 4 DT Arizona Cardinals 2 19
  2. Near the top we have Metcalf, Ridley, Lamb, McLaurin, Jefferson, and Claypool moving up, off to a huge start. They're joining an already strong group of MT, Tyreek, Davante, Hopkins, Godwin, Cooper, Moore, Evans, AJ Brown, and JuJu. Also Diggs. I think that's my top 17, in some order. Robby Anderson breaking into the Lockett/Woods tier. Pretty good start from a bunch of the other rookies: Ruggs, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Higgins, Shenault. McLaurin and Anderson might be the top buys, although we're a couple weeks past the best buying window.
  3. Bad clock management by Philly down 8. The advantage of scoring quick is that, if you miss the 2 pointer & fail at the onside kick, you still have a shot to get the ball back. The advantage of running clock is that if you make the 2 pointer then BAL doesn't have time to respond in regulation. They get the worst of both worlds, scoring just after the 2 minute warning with 1 timeout left (2 for BAL). If they fail at the 2 pointer & the onside kick, then BAL can run the clock down under 30 seconds even without a first down, which gives them very little chance of scoring. If they make the 2 pointer, then BAL has nearly 2 minutes to score a FG with 2 timeouts, which is plenty of time to get into FG range.
  4. Lamb Jefferson Ruggs, Jeudy, Claypool Aiyuk, Higgins Shenault, Pittman, Reagor Mims, Davis, Edwards, Hamler
  5. And I'm out, 1.6 below the cut (if current numbers hold). Although that kinda seems fair, given how close I've been skating to the cut line the past couple weeks. Storyline #1 behind my demise: missing wide receivers. 6 of them out this week: Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman, Parris Campbell, Corey Davis, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Bryan Edwards. Injury, covid rescheduling, injury, covid, schedule bye, injury. Carves out a big hole in my lineup. This week I had a mediocre WR1, a lousy WR2, and a pretty lousy 2nd flex. Storyline #2: getting very little from my 5 defenses. Just 5 points this week from JAC or TEN, and a 6 ppg avg through 5 weeks. If Clowney had hung on to the interception on that last drive I would've survived. Storyline #3: getting very little from Michael Thomas and Zach Ertz, two of my highest-priced players. They combined for just 1 start, and neither made my lineups this week. Thomas ($33) headlines my "never started" crew, joined by Rivers ($8), Snell ($4), Gore ($3), Edwards ($3), Sloman ($2), and ATL D ($2). My Las Vegas trio did what they could to keep me alive, with Carr, Waller, and Jacobs all putting up good numbers this week (and this season so far) but it was not enough. Update: I may have jumped the gun. Calcomatic is now showing me surviving, with TEN D at 7 instead of 5.
  6. It's a really close call. In the case where Seattle is down by 8 and then score a TD, I think there's about a 25% chance that Seattle wins the game, since they still need two more things to go right for them: make a 2-point conversion and score in overtime. As a rough first pass, that suggests that the two options are equally good if Seattle has a 25% chance of stuffing Minnesota, because then the bolded parts of the two scenarios will balance out: If Minnesota goes for it, then in order for Seattle to win they need: * to stuff Minnesota on 4th & 1 * to have a touchdown drive If Minnesota makes the FG, then in order for Seattle to win they need: * to have a touchdown drive * to make the 2-point conversion * to win in overtime So this suggests that Minnesota should go for it if they have at least a 75% chance of converting. But this is missing a couple things * maybe MIN misses the FG * having a touchdown drive after the made FG is easier than having a touchdown drive after a 4th down stuff, because there's about a 20 yard difference in field position Both of these make the FG option better for Seattle and worse for Minnesota. Each one moves the breakeven probability for the 4th down conversion by a few percentage points, so I guess the breakeven probability is somewhere in the 65%-70% range. Minnesota should go for it if their chances of converting are higher than that, and kick if they're lower. But I'd guess their chances of converting were somewhere in that 65%-70% range. So, a really close call. I voted "kick FG" but don't really mind them taking the other option.
  7. I would LOVE to see your updated dynasty rankings. Alright, you guys got me to update my WR rankings. Here they are. My top 12: Michael Thomas Calvin Ridley D.K. Metcalf CeeDee Lamb Tyreek Hill Davante Adams DeAndre Hopkins Amari Cooper Terry McLaurin Chris Godwin D.J. Moore Mike Evans
  8. WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted rankings were 1/10/20. These are a little rushed compared to my offseason rankings; in the offseason I get to spend a few days tinkering with them until they look right. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Michael Thomas NO 27.5 (1) 1 2 Calvin Ridley ATL 25.8 (12) 1 3 D.K. Metcalf SEA 22.8 (17) 1 4 CeeDee Lamb DAL 21.5 (20) 1 5 Tyreek Hill KC 26.6 (5) 1 6 Davante Adams GB 27.8 (4) 1 7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 28.3 (6) 1 8 Amari Cooper DAL 26.3 (8) 2 9 Terry McLaurin WAS 25.1 (26) 2 10 Chris Godwin TB 24.6 (2) 2 11 D.J. Moore CAR 23.5 (3) 2 12 Mike Evans TB 27.1 (7) 2 13 A.J. Brown TEN 23.3 (11) 2 14 Stefon Diggs BUF 26.9 (23) 2 15 Keenan Allen LAC 28.4 (18) 2 16 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 23.9 (14) 2 17 Justin Jefferson MIN 21.3 (25) 2 18 Kenny Golladay DET 26.9 (13) 2 19 D.J. Chark JAX 24.0 (16) 2 20 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 27.9 (10) 3 21 Allen Robinson CHI 27.1 (22) 3 22 Cooper Kupp RAM 27.3 (24) 3 23 Tyler Lockett SEA 28.0 (36) 3 24 Tyler Boyd CIN 25.9 (31) 3 25 Henry Ruggs LV 21.7 (27) 3 26 Courtland Sutton DEN 25.0 (9) 3 27 Deebo Samuel SFO 24.7 (19) 3 28 Robert Woods RAM 28.5 (30) 3 29 Jerry Jeudy DEN 21.5 (21) 3 30 Julio Jones ATL 31.7 (15) 4 31 Brandon Aiyuk SF 22.6 (29) 4 32 Tee Higgins CIN 21.7 (33) 4 33 Marquise Brown BAL 23.3 (28) 4 34 Diontae Johnson PIT 23.9 (38) 4 35 Adam Thielen MIN 30.1 (42) 4 36 Laviska Shenault JAX 22.0 (39) 4 37 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 23.0 (34) 4 38 DeVante Parker MIA 27.7 (40) 4 39 Robby Anderson CAR 27.4 (56) 4 40 Jalen Reagor PHI 21.8 (35) 4 41 Michael Gallup DAL 24.6 (32) 4 42 Jarvis Landry CLE 27.9 (37) 4 43 Chase Claypool PIT 22.3 (43) 4 44 Will Fuller HOU 26.5 (47) 5 45 Darius Slayton NYG 23.7 (55) 5 46 Denzel Mims NYJ 23.0 (46) 5 47 Allen Lazard GB 24.8 (79) 5 48 Christian Kirk ARI 23.9 (41) 5 49 Jamison Crowder NYJ 27.3 (81) 5 50 Mecole Hardman KAN 23.6 (52) 5 51 N'Keal Harry NE 22.8 (53) 5 52 Julian Edelman NE 34.4 (59) 5 53 Mike Williams LAC 26.0 (45) 5 54 Bryan Edwards LV 21.9 (50) 5 55 Sterling Shepard NYG 27.7 (49) 5 56 Andy Isabella ARI 23.9 (62) 5 57 John Brown BUF 30.5 (70) 5 58 Brandin Cooks RAM 27.0 (48) 5 59 A.J. Green CIN 32.2 (51) 5 60 Gabriel Davis BUF 21.5 (90) 5 61 Parris Campbell IND 23.2 (57) 5 62 KJ Hamler DEN 21.3 (58) 6 63 T.Y. Hilton IND 30.9 (44) 6 64 Corey Davis TEN 25.7 (73) 6 65 Preston Williams MIA 23.5 (60) 6 66 Van Jefferson LAR 24.2 (66) 6 67 Anthony Miller CHI 26.0 (65) 6 68 Marvin Jones DET 30.6 (64) 6 69 Darnell Mooney CHI 22.9 (119) 6 70 Hunter Renfrow LV 24.8 (78) 6 71 Devin Duvernay BAL 23.1 (69) 6 72 Russell Gage ATL 24.7 (116) 6 73 Tyler Johnson TB 22.1 (80) 6 74 Curtis Samuel CAR 24.2 (54) 6 75 Tim Patrick DEN 26.9 (127) 6 76 Sammy Watkins KC 27.3 (68) 6 77 Tre’Quan Smith NO 24.8 (87) 6 78 Scott Miller TB 23.2 (91) 6 79 James Washington PIT 24.5 (67) 6 80 Keelan Cole JAX 27.5 (171) 7 81 Quintez Cephus DET 22.5 (103) 7 82 Jalen Hurd SFO 24.7 (71) 7 83 Breshad Perriman NYJ 27.1 (83) 7 84 John Hightower PHI 24.4 (118) 7 85 Emmanuel Sanders NO 33.5 (74) 7 86 Randall Cobb HOU 30.1 (94) 7 87 DeSean Jackson PHI 33.8 (84) 7 88 Miles Boykin BAL 24.0 (72) 7 89 Golden Tate NYG 32.2 (77) 7 90 Cole Beasley BUF 31.5 (99) 7 91 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 26.0 (124) 7 92 Cedrick Wilson DAL 24.9 unr 7 93 Antonio Gandy-Golden WAS 22.5 (89) 7 94 Jeff Smith NYJ 23.5 unr 7 95 Alshon Jeffery PHI 30.6 (75) 7 96 Antonio Brown 32.2 (76) 7 97 David Moore SEA 25.7 (141) 7 98 Dontrelle Inman WAS 31.7 (173) 7 99 Cordarrelle Patterson CHI 29.6 (163) 7 100 JJ Arcega-Whiteside PHI 23.8 (61) 8 101 Steven Sims WAS 23.5 (120) 8 102 Demarcus Robinson KC 26.0 (155) 8 103 Tyrell Williams LV 28.7 (92) 8 104 Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 23.2 unr 8 105 Kendrick Bourne SF 25.2 (123) 8 106 Collin Johnson JAX 23.0 (97) 8 107 Isaiah Coulter HOU 22.1 (98) 8 108 Devin Funchess GB 26.4 (95) 8 109 John Ross CIN 24.9 (63) 8 110 Greg Ward PHI 25.2 (100) 8 111 Braxton Berrios NYJ 25.0 unr 8 112 Damiere Byrd NE 27.7 (152) 8 113 Nelson Agholor LV 27.4 (126) 8 114 Zach Pascal IND 25.8 (96) 8 115 Dede Westbrook JAX 26.9 (82) 8 116 Josh Reynolds RAM 25.6 (112) 8 117 Kenny Stills HOU 28.5 (93) 9 118 Joe Reed LAC 22.8 (111) 9 119 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE 21.6 (117) 9 120 Jakeem Grant MIA 27.9 (156) 9 121 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 37.1 (104) 9 122 Adam Humphries TEN 27.3 (110) 9 123 Auden Tate CIN 23.7 (113) 9 124 Hakeem Butler PHI 24.4 (88) 9 125 Dante Pettis SF 25.0 (86) 9 126 Keke Coutee HOU 23.7 (85) 9 127 Freddie Swain SEA 22.2 (138) 9 128 Zay Jones LV 25.5 (146) 9 129 Jalen Guyton LAC 23.3 unr 9 130 Albert Wilson MIA 28.2 (109) 9 131 Chris Conley JAX 28.0 (101) 9 132 Jakobi Meyers NE 23.9 (102) 9 133 Kelvin Harmon WAS 23.8 (108) 9 134 Quez Watkins PHI 22.3 (130)
  9. I definitely have Lamb ahead of Evans in dynasty. For the rest of this season, I still prefer Evans but not by all that much - maybe 1 ppg. And Lamb is a rookie who is 5.5 years younger than Evans, which means that you should get many more years out of him and he could have a higher ceiling than what we've seen so far from either of them.
  10. Squeaking by through 4 weeks with 164 ppg, within a few pts of the cut each of the past 2 weeks. Pos Player Starts Starter Points QB Kirk Cousins 2 57.3 QB Philip Rivers 0 0 QB Derek Carr 2 61.95 RB Derrick Henry 2 40.6 RB Josh Jacobs 4 64.5 RB Antonio Gibson 3 46 RB Benny Snell 0 0 RB Frank Gore 0 0 WR Michael Thomas 0 0 WR Julian Edelman 1 25.9 WR Deebo Samuel 0 0 WR Parris Campbell 1 14 WR Corey Davis 3 41.6 WR Laviska Shenault 3 36.2 WR TreQuan Smith 3 43.2 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2 28.1 WR Bryan Edwards 0 0 TE Zach Ertz 1 17.5 TE Darren Waller 3 70.1 TE Irv Smith 0 0 TE Jordan Akins 2 25.1 PK Chris Boswell 0 0 PK Dustin Hopkins 2 17.1 PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 40 PK Sam Sloman 0 0 DT Tennessee Titans 1 8 DT Atlanta Falcons 0 0 DT Jacksonville Jaguars 1 5 DT Detroit Lions 1 4 DT Arizona Cardinals 1 8 I guess the good news is that I've gotten some of my byes out of the way, and I have Deebo back and likely Michael Thomas soon. My MVPs so far are Waller, Jacobs, and Gostkowski. WR depth paying off too. The biggest disappointment is my 5 defenses coming together to give me very little. Also, Irv Smith.
  11. @Adam Harstad wrote a long post going through his recent dynasty rebuild, and how he thinks about these sorts of things: How I'm Rebuilding My Dynasty Team.
  12. Crazy huge week from @Dreamer with 316.44 points behind Aaron Jones & Mike Gesicki. That crushes the previous league record for a single week of 279.70, set back in 2013 by Dreamers. (Although it doesn't quite win the top week across all Anarchy leagues.)
  13. So that you know whether you need 2 more TDs or if you can settle for a FG on one of them to tie it up. Down 18 could mean tying it 2 TDs, 1 with a 2-pt conversion and the other with an XP, plus a FG. But in order for that to work you have to convert the 2-pointer. So it would be great if you could know in advance whether you'll convert it, because if you won't then you know you'll have to keep going for TDs and shouldn't ever settle for a FG. Which is why you go for 2 on the first TD.
  14. Not crazy, though it depends on how deep the rosters are in your league. In any of my dynasty leagues I'd be happy to get Pittman in exchange for my entire waiver budget. But in my keep-10 league with only 7 bench spots, I would not give that much for him.
  15. It's worth going big, including >50% and up to 100%. One way to look at it: the best player to come off waivers is typically worth more than 1/12 of the total value that comes off waivers in a season, so he winds up being worth more than a team's entire waiver budget (in a 12 team league). If you know that you have a good shot at someone like that then it can make sense to go all-in. Or go 60% or whatever if they're not quite that great an option, or you think other teams won't outbid you. Usually, the best waiver options go early in the season. So I wouldn't worry about blowing through my waiver bucks. (As long as there are also free waiver pickups where I can cycle through defenses and so on.) You should think about the gap in value between the guy you're getting and the guy you're dropping, and don't go big unless there's a big gap. e.g. James White vs. Nyheim Hines seems like a close call, so if I had to drop White in order to pick up Hines then I'd keep my bid low. That probably means that I miss out on Hines, but that's fine since I still get to roster White.
  16. I have a spreadsheet of TE career trajectories, if you want to just look at all the good TEs and avoid cherrypicking. For the top TEs who entered the NFL 1995-2014, here's the first season when they had a huge year (50+ VBD): 3 Tony Gonzalez 2 Antonio Gates 2 Jason Witten 5 Travis Kelce 2 Rob Gronkowski 5 Zach Ertz 2 Jimmy Graham 1 Jeremy Shockey 2 Todd Heap 5 Dallas Clark 8 Greg Olsen 2 Chris Cooley 3* Kellen Winslow *missed prev yr So 7/13 in year 2 or earlier and 2 more in year 3 (including 1 who missed his 2nd season). (This list is sorted by estimated career VBD, including future VBD.) Also, all of these guys except Winslow showed something in their first 2 years. Here's their first season with >0 VBD (using this method of calculating VBD): 2 Tony Gonzalez 2 Antonio Gates 2 Jason Witten 2* Travis Kelce 1 Rob Gronkowski 2 Zach Ertz 2 Jimmy Graham 1 Jeremy Shockey 2 Todd Heap 1 Dallas Clark 2 Greg Olsen 1 Chris Cooley 3* Kellen Winslow *missed prev yr
  17. 2nd year breakouts are what's most common among elite TEs. Not just Kittle & Andrews, but also Gronk, Graham, Gates, Witten, etc. And most of those guys also showed something as rookies. There is another bucket of TEs who took longer to hit big, or gradually improved over their first several years, like Kelce, Ertz, and Olsen. But those guys are rarer, especially among TEs who hit really big. The fact that this is even a meaningfully sized bucket does make TE different from WR, but it's still not where I'd typically go looking for my dynasty TEs.
  18. Yeah, everyone can edit it. I set it up that way so that you could edit it. If you want to DM me your email address I could give edit rights to you in particular and stop anyone else from editing it. (I also made a second tab which was a copy of the first tab, and which no one can edit except me, in case someone messed up the doc.)
  19. From the ownership numbers, I can calculate that the average team has: QB: 2.8 for $34 (2019: 2.6 for $34, 2018: 2.9 for $31) RB: 5.2 for $88 (2019: 5.3 for $83, 2018: 5.4 for $86) WR: 6.0 for $82 (2019: 5.7 for $82, 2018: 6.4 for $83) TE: 2.5 for $28 (2019: 2.3 for $30, 2018: 2.5 for $30) PK: 2.2 for $8 (2019: 2.2 for $10, 2018: 2.3 for $8) Def: 2.3 for $9 (2019: 2.2 for $12, 2018: 2.3 for $11) tot: 21.1 for $250 (2019: 20.3 for $250, 2018: 21.8 for $250) 11.7% average ownership for the players on their team (2019: 15.4%, 2018: 13.1%)
  20. I just copied and pasted. Did it work? Yep. This spreadsheet now has ownership info which TheWinz got from the querier.
  21. I am an old fart and would need help sharing. Are you offering your services when I am finished? If you stick it into a Google spreadsheet instead of an Excel one then you can share it. If you want an easy option, it would probably work to just copy it all and paste it in here.
  22. QB KC Chiefs QB NO Saints RB Christian McCaffrey RB Saquon Barkley RB Ezekiel Elliott RB Alvin Kamara WR Tyreek Hill WR Michael Thomas WR Davante Adams WR Julio Jones WR DeAndre Hopkins TE Travis Kelce TE George Kittle FLEX Zach Ertz PK Harrison Butker PK Wil Lutz DEF KC Chiefs DEF NO Saints
  23. My 30-player roster: 8.6% - QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8 13.6% - QB - Philip Rivers - IND/7 - $8 9.2% - QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7 10.2% - RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/7 - $30 24.6% - RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26 46.7% - RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9 8.4% - RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4 6.9% - RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3 11.3% - WR - Michael Thomas - NO/6 - $33 5.2% - WR - Julian Edelman - NE/6 - $15 7.5% - WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/11 - $12 10.9% - WR - Parris Campbell - IND/7 - $7 3.0% - WR - Corey Davis - TEN/7 - $6 11.4% - WR - Laviska Shenault - JAX/7 - $5 3.4% - WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3 9.5% - WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3 26.1% - WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3 5.3% - TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/9 - $20 10.4% - TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $17 4.2% - TE - Irv Smith - MIN/7 - $8 1.8% - TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3 21.8% - PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3 6.3% - PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2 23.5% - PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2 9.9% - PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2 18.4% - TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3 4.5% - TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2 3.4% - TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2 6.1% - TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2 7.3% - TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2 average ownership: 11.3% average ownership (excluding PK & Def): 11.4% The biggest change I made from previous years was putting more effort into stacking, with 2 Raiders receivers, 1 Viking, and 1 Colt. It should help both for the season as a whole (e.g., if the Raiders passing offense clicks this year) and for individual games in the finals. By position QB: 3 for $23 The good: pretty cheap, I got 3 of them, they're solid guys, I stacked each with 1-2 receivers. The bad: limited upside, 2 wk7 byes. I thought about going pricier on one, but I just wasn't that thrilled with anyone in the $10-15 range and I didn't want to pay up for the top guys. RB: 5 for $72 2 studs (Henry who has a great playoff schedule, Jacobs). 1 obvious value play (Gibson). 1 "handcuff" to a guy with high injury risk (Snell). 1 cheap depth guy (Gore). I considered getting a 3rd stud or another cheap guy but preferred spending that money elsewhere. WR: 9 for $87 Thomas could be the highest scoring non-QB in the whole contest. Edelman is a huge value compared to his typical production. Deebo looks like one of the standard "great value if you set aside the first few weeks" guys for this contest. Then a bunch more cheap guys to take advantage of best ball, mainly guys who have moved up the ranks since pricing was set. TE: 4 for $48 One (near?) stud TE in Ertz, two mid-range guys who were borderline choices but get a bit of a boost from the stack (Waller, Irv Smith), and one of the best value plays of the contest in Akins (behind only Edwards & Gibson, IMO, but somehow he's the least-owned player on my roster at 1.8%). PK: 4 for $9 Def: 5 for $11 These are prime "throw numbers at it" positions, where you can keep adding $2 players who are likely to give you at least a couple starts. My two $3 options are Boswell (solid kicker, I was out of $2 starters) and TEN (good looking D especially for the championship weeks). By bye wk5: 2 for $5 wk6: 7 for $104 wk7: 10 for $79 wk8: 6 for $23 wk9: 2 for $22 wk10: 1 for $2 wk11: 2 for $15 wk13: 0 for $0 Could be in trouble in week 6 (Raiders + M Thomas + Edelman) and 7 (Cousins + other Vikings, Rivers + other Colts, Henry). Hopefully I'll still have enough firepower that early in the season. Week 13 byes essentially make a player undraftable. By price Studs ($24+): 3 for $89. 2 RB, 1 WR. Solid Starters ($11-$23): 4 for $64. 2 WR, 2 TE. Undervalued midrange guys ($6-$10): 7 for $47. 3 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE. Cheap value plays ($2-$5): 16 for $44. 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 4 PK, 5 Def. This year the barbell shape is less extreme than usual. I usually like paying up for a few of the very best, but this year it seemed worth taking the discount to get guys in the next tier (Henry, Jacobs, Ertz, Waller instead of Barkley, Elliott, Kelce, Kittle). I wonder if the pricing was a little different? Another factor was McCaffrey's ineligibility. 30 players with lots of cheap guys is typical for me (though with last year's pricing I only got 26). Who missed the cut The last change I made: cutting $10 Noah Fant + $4 Malcolm Brown and adding $8 Irv Smith + $3 Frank Gore + $3 Tre'Quan Smith. Irv Smith gives me a stack & I expect he'll be much lower ownership than Fant, I'm skeptical of Brown's upside which makes Gore not much worse for RB depth, and Smith has some potential for blow-up games (like he's done before) or a surprisingly good season (as a 3rd yr WR getting some camp hype). The last change I seriously considered but rejected: cutting $8 Philip Rivers + $7 Parris Campbell and adding $15 Drew Brees. Tempting as a way to get some QB upside, plus Campbell isn't that great a deal and I already have two NO WRs. But Brees is on the road for the 3-week championship, and has a wk6 bye, so I'll bet on Campbell making up the Brees-Rivers gap. Some other guys who I was eyeing: QB Russell Wilson, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Aaron Jones, RB Chris Thompson, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Adam Humphries, WR Cole Beasley, TE Mark Andrews, TE Chris Herndon.
  24. Last season was my worst Anarchy team by far, so I'm hoping for a major bounceback. As always, I'm relying heavily on projections and trying to stick pretty close to my draft board, adjusting positional values as I go. 1.01 TE Travis Kelce KC Kelce was the most valuable player in this format last year, even though McCaffrey, L Jackson, and M Thomas had ridiculous years and he didn't. With 2 PPR and playoff potential he's at the top of my draft board this year. Also considered: none. 2.16 QB Drew Brees + Taysom Hill NO Brees seems to still be going strong, and when you add on all of Taysom Hill's production plus playoff value the Saints QB looks to me like the best QB option outside the big two. Also considered: none. 3.01 RB Kenyan Drake ARI This feels like a soft spot in the draft; would've loved to have Mixon fall. Drake has a lower floor than I'd like this early in the draft, but also has the potential to put up big numbers in an offense that's a great fit for him. Also considered: WR Allen Robinson. 4.16 RB Chris Carson SEA I don't usually go this RB heavy in Anarchy, but I also usually don't have this kind of workhorse RB fall to me at the end of round 4. Also considered: none. 5.01 WR DK Metcalf SEA Plenty of upside going into his 2nd year, and even just a repeat of last year's numbers wouldn't be bad. Playoff potential bumps him over McLaurin & Parker, and doubling up on Seahawks makes that even better. Also considered: RB David Montgomery, WR Terry McLaurin, WR DeVante Parker, QB Tom Brady. 6.16 WR Marvin Jones DET 7.01 WR Brandin Cooks HOU I was crossing my fingers that Marquise Brown would fall, but alas. Huge tier drop after Edelman & Brown, and I'm left picking between a bunch of similarly valued players. I went with Jones & Cooks who both have pretty strong mainline projections and some upside based on what they've done in the past, though they also have some downside risk with Jones's age & recent injuries and Cooks's concussion history and lousy 2019 season. I downgraded Swift & Diontae Johnson a bit due to camp injuries, and passed on QBs because I expect to find a good value there sometime later on. Also considered: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Diontae Johnson, QB Matthew Stafford. 8.16 PK Harrison Butker KC 9.01 PK Justin Tucker BAL Kickers! The top kickers have several advantages - quality of offense, talent, job security, playoff potential - which stack to put them at the top of my draft board after Crowder didn't quite fall to me. Also considered: WR Preston Williams, RB Phillip Lindsay, QB Jared Goff. 10.16 RB Zack Moss BUF Moss is a committee back with a shot at the larger role. Nice value here. He was limited in practice yesterday with a neck injury, which might be part of why he fell, but from what I've read it sounds really minor. 11.01 DST Baltimore Ravens BAL If everyone is fading defenses, I'll take a top one here with talent, an easy schedule, and playoff potential. I would've doubled up at RB if Breida or Armstead had fallen. Also considered: WR Henry Ruggs, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Boston Scott. 12.16 TE Gerald Everett LAR 13.01 RB Darrell Henderson LAR My third straight year drafting Everett! These are a little more boom-or-bust than I'd like, with uncertainty about their roles on the Rams offense, but I don't see anyone who I like better. Probably would've gone Aiyuk if he'd been healthy, or QB if I saw more separation between MIA, CAR, and LAC. Also considered: QB Dolphins, WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Tony Pollard, DST Minnesota Vikings, DST New England Patriots. 14.16 WR Brandon Aiyuk SF 15.01 DST Chicago Bears CHI Aiyuk is a starting WR with some upside, and I decided I'm willing to take on some hamstring risk given how much I like him relative to the other receivers. The Bears are likely to have a good defense. Decided to gamble on either QB Dolphins or QB Chargers making it to my next pick. Also considered: QB Dolphins. 16.16 QB Sam Darnold NYJ I guess I should've taken my QB last round - I was hoping for MIA or LAC but Blinky sniped me on both. I guess the gap between NYJ and WAS is big enough to take one here, especially since many of the WRs & TEs near the top of my board went undrafted in other leagues. 17.01 WR Russell Gage ATL If I'd known that Pollard would fall this far I would've waited on my last RB, but it still doesn't make sense to flex him. Instead I'll go with the guy who seems to have the Falcons' WR3 job locked down. Also considered: TE Jordan Akins, TE Logan Thomas, WR Denzel Mims. 18.16 TE Logan Thomas WAS High ceiling given the offseason hype and the lack of other Football Team receiving options, and his floor isn't too bad since he seems likely to get plenty of snaps. Also considered: TE Darren Fells, TE Nick Boyle, WR Danny Amendola, TE Will Dissly, TE Robert Tonyan. This squad feels more boom-or-bust than I usually go. I'm pretty excited about the upside of some of the later picks (Aiyuk, L Thomas, Moss) but they could blow up in my face. Weaker than usual at WR, more early RBs, very strong specialists, barbell QB & TEs. I think I mismanaged the QB position a bit, and also wasn't able to take advantage of the RB value late (Pollard with my next-to-last pick or James Robinson as Mr. Irrelevant). Picking on the turn had some downsides, watching guys that I'd been eyeing for over a round get sniped shortly before me (Marquise Brown, Boston Scott, QB Chargers, and some others). But on the plus side I got Travis Kelce, so probably worth it. My favorite non-me teams are Blinky The Three Eyed Fish and Genester.