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thriftyrocker

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About thriftyrocker

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  1. I like Dede as a prospect but was a bit surprised his DVOA and YAR were pretty mediocre in 2018. Do you have an explanation why? Seems like he will rise 30 places just by signing a contract on Wednesday.
  2. If he's traded before the draft, would you move him up? Always bad as a runner and much worse as a receiver in 2018. They have to get a RB, probably 2. Sell at half the price. Given your comments on Richard, would think this should be higher.
  3. I agree. If you believe the league will be around a long time, you have to go QB early and figure the rest out later. A team with 2 great QB is always competitive, and starting QBs have higher and more stable trade value. That may not show in mocks, but I think it's the right strategy.
  4. I agree a rate of 12 TDs per season is high for anyone (regardless of length), and TD production is a high source of randomness in fantasy. I would disagree Kupp is priced high based on the 7.5 game sample size or inflation from a couple plays. His ADP is after Woods and beside Sutton and Moore. He is priced near Landry, a very post-hype player who finished WR27 last year. If we're looking for players priced near their cap, I think there's better candidates. This is not the going rate for a 3rd year player who was performing as a top 5 WR in 2018. This is the going rate for a WR who might become a low WR1.
  5. Not necessarily. It's a lot of long TDs for a slow replacement level WR. If you believe he is a good WR, it doesn't matter. Great players who timed slow still get big plays. You could make a parallel to Riley Cooper in Chip Kelly's offense if you want, but if you believe he is closer to Boldin than Cooper then one might expect big plays to continue.
  6. I agree with you but to be fair, Julio has had foot issues his whole career including the end of 2018. It is a plus from a seller's standpoint that he didn't miss any time and is still seen as a reliable starter. If Green started the whole year it'd be easier to sell him now. But it's been a persistent problem for Julio for 5 years. It's possible Megatron retired early in part because of persistent ankle/achilles issues. That said, great (generational) players tend to keep playing, and I think Julio and Green both qualify and I wouldn't shy away from buying. I would throw Brown in the group too. People will sell for less because of age + the sour taste of his argument with the Steelers, but he has a lot of career left.
  7. Buy QB: Garoppolo - Easy swap (+/-) if you drafted Darnold, Rosen, or Allen last year to get a better player. Buy RB: Cook - Few RB I care about outside of round 1, so I'll list him as being one of the only ones worth their draft slot potentially. Buy WR: Lockett - Breakout a little muted given it's post-hype and looks TD dependent, which makes him undervalued Buy TE: OJ - Specifically, I'm looking to add something to Engram or Henry to get him. Sell QB: Goff, Trubisky, Darnold, Rosen, Allen - Any QB I don't think will be HOF elite who is currently overvalued due to being young. Sell RB: Tevin - Don't think he'll be able to be consistent given his track record and his SCT. Easy sell if he is slotted as a starter/RB2. Sell WR: Sutton - Overvalued based on height=upside fallacy. Most guys in his tier I like better. Sell TE: Herndon/Thomas - Don't hate them, but would move off of them if anyone was seeing a breakout in their OK rookie years.
  8. Seems like Flacco is setup to have a good year, sort of like Alex Smith last year, playing for his next team. That's still likely only backup/matchup stats but not without value. It's interesting in August DLF drafts I don't think he was taken once (according to Mizelle's data at least) while Dalton, Bradford, and Tannehill were. Seems he should be close to free and probably worth a spot if your backup is sketchy.
  9. I agree Conner is a better play and most of what you said but 1) I don't see any RB on SD's roster who would help out Ekeler if Gordon is absent which makes Ekeler an interesting case. 2) I wouldn't ignore Stevan Ridley's presence in PIT. Even if he is cut after the game this week, he's still on speed dial if Bell gets hurt, and would get carries.
  10. Tate may play less snaps this year in favor of Golladay. I have tried to move off him in the one league I own him for much lower ranked WR but no action yet (in PPR). I would take a 2nd for him in any format. Hogan I liked a lot when you could buy him cheap. I still think there's a buy opportunity based on comments here, but probably not at his ADP (top 75 overall). I think he's the only one with short term (or any) upside. I would not sell for any 2nd, and wouldn't expect anyone to offer a 1st. Stills does nothing for me. One dimensional on a bad offense. I would take a 3rd if I felt I could do something with the roster spot. Funchess is someone I drafted a lot due to the disparity between his NFL draft position and rookie ranking. I have a positive outlook for him but would move off him in some leagues to hedge to similar players like Agholor, Njoku, or Mike Williams. Another case where a 2nd is probably too light, but may take a chance if it looked early.
  11. Here's what I believe. 1) Clement is the best RB on the roster. 2) Ajayi will get run into the ground this year because the team won't resign him. I don't think Clement is good enough to counteract this strategy. Ajayi played well as an Eagle and likely will continue to have motivation to run hard. 3) The Eagles will always be a RBBC as long as Doug P is coach. 4) Sproles will retire this year no matter what, and the other RB on the roster have no value. So while it's a "sell low" point, you're still looking at low name value for him next year as a vet starter with likely a rookie on the roster. Look at where Drake and Collins are in drafts this year (late 5th/early 6th), that is likely his trade value upside next year. And if he gets hurt or doesn't perform as well, he could drop to a 10th round value or later, about where he is now.
  12. If you're referring to posters here, you can use the @ symbol in front of the name
  13. Yea, there's two facets of hands, making tough catches and reliability. I have definitely read yes on the former and no on the latter for Miller. If anything Kupp acted the same way as an actual NFL player last year, made tough catches but missed some easy ones. Don't mean to imply bad for a rookie. My implication was that Kupp was elite for a rookie which set him apart, and one of the reasons he had hype. Miller does not have hype for route running but for all the reasons you mentioned, like competitiveness.
  14. 12 team standard only start 2 rb Dion Lewis for 2019 2nd (was early this year, likely early next)
  15. What's your reason for saying this? There are some similarities - elite production vs. low level of competition, projecting as slot receivers in the NFL, on offenses that look mediocre going into the season. But I don't view them as similar players. Kupp was always betting on technician and tape, ability to get open. Miller I think you're betting on playmaking, he is not the route runner or consistent hands player Kupp is. Kupp there were a lot of questions whether he could transition outside based on his size even though he isn't fast enough to do that, and Miller there were a lot of questions whether he should focus more on inside based on his size even though a lot of his Memphis success was downfield.