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Everything posted by thriftyrocker

  1. I don't view him as anything great, but he only has to get about 800/5 to be worth more than that. I would sell if its a short bench but probably hold if its a deep bench, at that pricetag.
  2. I don't think you're getting Mixon or Chubb for Allen in many leagues. Would take another very good player (like Singletary) on the Allen side. I agree with Kerryon being very close in value to Allen. But if you don't like Kerryon don't force it. I don't think you can ask for much more than Kerryon. You could ask for something significant added to Jones or Sanders.
  3. Guys with two first names are always hyped. Big difference.
  4. Howard will start the beginning of the year and be a closer the whole year in games they have a big lead. They kept both Sproles and Clement who both take passing down and 2 minute offense. Howard will not be retained, so next year is more of a blank slate. But I think they like one year rentals for depth, it has done them good.
  5. I think he is a sell because he is terrible and people with Freeman are nervous. I got Gesicki for him in one league and Nyheim Hines for him in another. Neither is a great value increase but players I feel have a better chance. In a 3rd league I was able to increase the value of Freeman enough to get full value. In a 4th league I was rejected on an offer for Dede Westbrook but got some interest back that I was too lazy to follow up on. TBH I was surprised I could probably have moved him in all four leagues, and in those same leagues Ollison gets no draft interest (5th or undrafted). To me he seems like a guy you can get a 2nd for now who may have no value next year.
  6. He has more value to Conner owners, but if you don't have Conner he can be had for a late 2nd or early 3rd easily. An early 2nd for Samuels plus a mid 3rd is a great trade, as it potentially gets you Snell too, hedging your investment.
  7. A lot of QBs didn't deserve it. Who cares.
  8. Deebo's floor is pretty low. He's a late 1st/early 2nd now. He could be valued at no more than a 3rd next year if Pettis and someone else outperform him on the 9ers. His upside is capped, insofar as he's probably not Antonio Brown. If he is Antonio Brown, it doesn't matter if he breaks out at 24 or 25. Kupp is still a top 50 player despite the knee reconstruction and came into the league at an older age than Deebo.
  9. That's an extreme take. He's not a RB he's a WR. Do we consider 25 yo 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook to be old? Do we value 23 yo 3rd year pro John Ross's youth? I would only be worried about a 23 yo rookie if he broke out at age 22/23. But that's not the case with Samuel.
  10. If Garoppolo succeeds he is a long term asset, no different from Haskins. There are a lot of players that can be flexed. The issue is hardly ever not having someone to put there, but more often picking the right one, or in the preferred case, being loaded with players better than Fuller making it obvious.
  11. You sold high. And got a good deal on top of selling high.
  12. ADP is not the best indicator of QB value because in startups people wait on QB, but in trades, it often requires getting a comparable back to avoid depth imbalance. I think Fuller is an overpay but would offer it if it helped my team (and would rather give Fuller than Gesicki tbh). I think JG's trade value is closer to ADP 100 than ADP 150. The question is really is there an acquirable QB who you like more than JG who you can get with Fuller? The answer is probably no, but worth thinking about. Goff? Prescott? Ryan? These are - by the rankings - more valuable than JG but real world value is not too different. Adding a 4th-to-2nd upgrade is usually an easy ADP consideration that can be removed if the other guys questions it.
  13. Feels a bit like a false narrative. There are 3rd/4th year WR who are equivalent physically to a "slowed down" Julio Jones, without his skill or drive, and they are productive enough to be startable. This is not the case of Dez Bryant where the player won't do the small stuff. There are routes Julio has excelled at that go beyond shear physical dominance. Calvin Johnson was slowing down in his last year but he could still accumulate stats. If Julio drops off the face of the planet, it will be due to some catastrophic injury he's too old to come back from, not age. Certainly that's possible given he has had foot issues since college, but injury is an issue for most players' value. I would still probably buy if he gets hurt (except achilles), because a modest prospect for a chance at a comeback season is still a good bet.
  14. If there was a RB who was a 24 yo rookie taken in the 3rd round, I think he would be given more of a chance to start than an equivalent player as a FA who entered the league at 21. Because he is cheap. The veteran will be given a short term contract where he can be cut after year 1 without much concern. In most cases. If you look at the top RB contracts there aren't many. Some teams like the Eagles trade for proven starters with < 2 years left because it is cheaper. Young players are given mulligans that players on their 2nd contract aren't afforded.
  15. They were all off the board (BPA probably Haskins, Love, Mattison). I was the one selling Miller, and he countered with iterations of the pick for Harris for about 12 hours before finally taking my initial offer.
  16. Lamar Miller put up 2 RB1 years in Miami before hitting FA. Certainly it's possible Carson could do that. If Carson performs at the higher end of possible outcomes in the next two seasons, he will secure long term value regardless of Penny. If he doesn't, he's not guaranteed anything more than Thomas Rawls was at this point in his career.
  17. I think Carson is worth more like a pick in the 1.6 to 1.9 range. The risks on him are more than just Penny. Do the Seahawks view RB as plug and play? They keep drafting them, and he is only under contract 2 more years. I think the chance he gets a long term contract are not just dependent on holding off Penny. Are they married to RBBC now? Carson may be an "above average starting RB" but I think Penny and (no longer there) Davis could be evaluated about the same based on last year. I view him as very similar to Sanders (both on good offenses that probably go RBBC to their detriment), but Sanders has the benefit of just starting his rookie contract.
  18. fwiw I offered a 3rd for him (pick 38 in a 14 teamer), and it was rejected. I ended up with Riley Ridley at the pick so
  19. Here are trades I saw, not involved ("A" is same person different leagues) * A gets: 2019 1st round pick 1.3 #3 * B gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE, Jared Cook TE NO; 2019 1st round pick 1.10 #10, 2019 4th round pick 4.10 #46 * C gets: Jarvis Landry WR CLE; 2019 2nd round pick 2.5 #17 * A gets: 2020 1st round pick 1.12 #12, 2019 2nd round pick 2.12 #24, 2019 2nd round pick 2.1 #13
  20. 12 team 0.5 PPR Superflex/IDP start 1-2 QB, 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR, 1-2 TE, etc. 1.9 + Shepard for DHenry + Hyde
  21. 12 tm IDP 0.5 PPR start 2-3 rb 3-4 wr Ridley yeldon For Freeman Ito 5.10
  22. I'd want one of those pieces too valuable to add to give up Evans.
  23. He could definitely have a few 100 yard games and fills a deep route role in the SF offense than no one else does, but from a dynasty value perspective he's never going to be as high valued as he was. In a short bench league I think he's definitely one you can drop. If he becomes "dependable undervalued vet" then you can re-buy for about the same pick you are gaining now. I don't see any risk in dropping him and would rather have Funchess, Albert Wilson, Moncrief, and similarly valued vets because they give more boom in the boom/bust proposition.