This is a pretty far theory which I think I heard someone else say as well but I don't really buy because she has said she feels betrayed in confessionals and also said in a premiere panel she had with Jeff Probst and a few other cast members she felt hurt Rob didn't tell her. I believe she most likely did feel hurt/betrayed but also possibly embellished her feelings so she wouldn't be seen as a pair with Rob like Jeremy and Natalie were because Sandra really only cares about herself in this game. I think I heard that theory floated by Jamal and RHAP and I think there's a good chance it's true. Sandra is an elite social player.
I would disagree. We are three votes in but with EoE there are likely 16 votes still to go. There is still plenty of time to eliminate big threats. Nobody is going to forget about Rob, Parvati, Sandra, or Kim (who I would also put up there).
First vote: Natalie - First votes are typically anybody but me votes and apparently Natalie and Jeremy did little to separate themselves. Honestly, it was a disadvantage for them to start on the same tribe together. Natalie and Sarah should have been flipped. Natalie was probably the best female athlete in that tribe so I think taking her out was probably ill advised for everyone besides Adam and Denise who needed to take the target off their backs. Without really fully knowing the tribe dynamics as we probably see less then 1% of what goes on, I'm not sure who the tribe should have targeted first.
Second vote: Amber - Splitting hairs a bit here, but I think Kim might have been the better choice here. She played arguably the best game of all time in One World and did it on her first try. Most of her cast wanted to take her to the end and she would have beaten almost anyone in the end. She ran circles around that cast. You could argue her cast was full of sheep but Monica and Troyzan from her cast have made final threes in returnee seasons. Granted, I think both were 0 vote finalists.
Rob also ran circles around his cast on Redemption Island but it was his fourth try and based on post game interviews it sounds like there were quite a few people he could not have beaten if they had gotten to the end. Of course, he was smart enough to know who he would and would not beat and is showing again in Winners at War that he is a serious force at Survivor.
To counter the point that voting out Kim would have been the better move, Amber probably would have flipped in a swap if she swapped onto the same tribe as Rob so it seems like the Red Tribe probably made the safer play here even though Kim could flip as well. Tyson, who is probably the fifth biggest threat in the game and also very close friends with Rob in real life (much closer then Lex ever was), was probably not a good choice to vote out first because he is such a beast at challenges.
Third Vote: Danni - Danni was absolutely the right choice for the tribe to vote out even though Parvati is a superior player and a far bigger threat. With EoE in play, I think there are still 16 more player eliminations to get Parvati out.
A swap is likely coming and a Survivor player should aim at alienating as few people as possible in these pre-swap votes so that hopefully no one flips on them after they swap. Had new school voted out Parvati, I feel like Ethan and Rob would have absolutely flipped to red after a swap which would greatly reduce the chances of Jeremy, Adam, Denise, Michele, or Ben winning the game or even making the merge. Plus Danni basically showed you can't count on her long term by flipping on Parvati so quickly.
For example, after Missy decided to blindside Chelsea last season instead of voting out Karishma, Dean never voted with her again and Karishma still wasn't loyal to Missy (unlike Chelsea) so the move basically cost her two votes. Chelsea was definitely a bigger threat then Karishma but the bigger move is often not the right move.
Finally, when they do swap, Parvati and Rob will likely be voted out in a swap before Ethan, Jeremy, Adam, Denise, Michele, and Ben if they swap into a minority against the red tribe.
1. Rob has been historically excellent in puzzles. I think having just seen his wife voted out probably put him in a bad mental state. Because of that, I agree he should of been doing the heavy lifting but normally he's such a puzzle ace that he would usually be better there despite being one of the stronger players physically.
2. This means absolutely nothing. Tribal council is one to two hours long I believe. Someone could do 75% of the talking at tribal and be made completely invisible on television if that's how the editors decide to portray that person. I'm pretty sure Jeff picks on everyone and then the editors show what they feel is important to the overall narrative of the season or is a just a really funny moment.
I would agree with this though I'd also put Kim on their level based on her play in One World. She's struggled this season and doesn't seem to be playing particularly well from the bottom but at least she's aware she's on the bottom.
Also, Sophie said otherwise in her confessional, but Tyson was not the right person for her to give half her idol to. If Tyson and Kim remain on the bottom and go to tribal council again then Tyson most likely isn't giving her that idol half. Kim took a gamble and gave it to Sophie. Based on what Yul posted on twitter after week 1 for reasons why he didn't vote out Kim, I think Yul probably would have been the right choice but all of the players are operating on way less information then we as viewers are.