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Ignoratio Elenchi

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Everything posted by Ignoratio Elenchi

  1. I'm with you, not sure what the math says in terms of expected points or whatever but my gut says the loss of down is more valuable to the defense than the additional 5 yards. Thinking about it a little more, league average YPA is probably > 5, so in theory losing 5 yards but getting to replay the down is a net positive for the offense? Of course putting them in more obvious passing situations presumably reduces effective YPA, but then maybe unexpected runs are more effective, wine in front of me and all that... I'll leave it to bigger nerds to figure out the numbers, but I've always suspected that auto-accepting all these 5 yard penalties is suboptimal and loss of down is undervalued in these situations.
  2. If Jay Cutler had led Denver or Chicago on two different late 4th quarter game-winning Super Bowl drives against Brady's Patriots dynasty, we'd be talking about him going to the Hall. Conversely without those two wins, Manning's clearly not in the discussion. So it was mostly the two wins, not the city or the surname.
  3. That's actually literally what it is. You're pretending not to know what "Eli beat Brady" means in context. Eli will likely get into the Hall of Fame for no other reason than because he led two game-winning Super Bowl drives against Brady's Patriots. Obviously you're entitled to believe that that's not enough to get him in the HOF, but it probably is.
  4. If you want to demonstrate a lack of reading comprehension, go for it. I'm sure you can find direct quotes like "Eli beat Brady" which is obviously not meant literally, and is shorthand for "Eli was the QB of the team that beat the team quarterbacked by Tom Brady." If you're down to making up stats and pedantry, you should just bow out. The reality is, as I said at the start, QBs get a disproportionate amount of credit for their team's success, and Eli Manning quarterbacked his team to two last minute victories against the greatest team and QB of the last two decades. Everyone knows what that means unless they're intentionally pretending not to.
  5. A) You were talking about the Manningham catch. That was 2012, not 2008. B) He didn't lose 2 fumbles in 2008. C) Eli's QB rating in 2008 was 87.5. Brady's in that game was 82.5.
  6. Yet somehow Tom Brady is basically the consensus GOAT because "he" won 6 Super Bowls. It is what it is.
  7. It was obviously near one of his own guys, otherwise why was Samuel even in the vicinity? It looked at the time like the WR ran the wrong route - is that Eli's fault? The reality is that it wasn't an INT and the rest is history, just like all the things that could've-gone-wrong-but-didn't in Tom Brady's career have long been forgotten, too.
  8. I don't even understand this line of criticism. I'm looking at the game log of the 2nd SB right now and Eli was 30/40 for 296 and 1 TD, 0 INTs, 0 Fumbles. Went 5/6 driving them down the field for a game-winning TD in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. In what way did he have a bad game?
  9. Eli's QB rating in that Super Bowl was 103.7. In how many of his Super Bowl wins did Brady have a higher QB rating than that?
  10. That ball was in a place neither DB could get to. Go watch the video again - any other QB makes that throw and people would be creaming themselves over how perfectly placed it was. But instead because it was Eli it was a bad throw because he "chose to throw it into double coverage?" C'mon man. Credit where credit is due.
  11. We don't have HOF votes though, so it doesn't really matter whether we think he's worthy.
  12. For me Favre is at least as much of the Troy Aikman - Steve Young generation than he is of Eli's. Obviously a subjective thing, and complicated by the fact that Favre played forever, but when Favre was in his prime Eli Manning was like 14 years old. But whatever, it's a silly tangent. Edit: As a corollary, I propose that if you potentially grew up with a poster of a QB on your wall, you're not from the same generation as that QB. (And before you give me counterexamples, I just came up with this, it's not well-defined and am not sure it holds up to scrutiny.)
  13. ...everyone? Are you saying it's not true that "QBs get a disproportionate amount of credit for their team's successes and blame for their team's failures?" I'm not saying it's right, I'm saying it's reality.
  14. Warner's a weird one. His career had two relatively short but big peaks, he was great for a couple years before Eli came into the league... then at age 33 lost his job to rookie Eli amid a period of mediocrity... then was great again a couple years later in Arizona. I guess you can put him in Eli's generation, I wouldn't really argue against it.
  15. Sure, agreed it's a bit of a squishy definition. Favre just "feels" like he belongs to the era before Eli, and similarly Wilson is from the generation after. Eli overlaps with a lot of QBs because he's had a long career, but Favre's prime was before Eli was in the league, and Eli had won 2 Super Bowls before Wilson entered the league.
  16. It has long been the case that QBs get a disproportionate amount of credit for their team's successes and blame for their team's failures. It will likely continue to be true for a long time. That's not unique to Eli, that's just NFL fandom. Super Bowl wins are an important QB stat, for better or worse. Dramatic last-second Super Bowl wins against 18-0 teams, even more so.
  17. This is pretty cool. My very first impression was a bit of confusion, in the upper left corner it says "2018-19 Dashboard" but shows only 30 attempts for Josh Allen. Took me a minute to see that it was filtered just to last week's stats, and then I was disappointed to find I could only view these on a week-by-week basis. Would really like to see aggregate stats at a season level. Also should be able to multi-select some of the filters, like if I want "3rd & long" situations it seems like i can only see 7-9 yds, 10-14 yds, and 15+ yds separately.
  18. I crossed off the top 4 on that list as they're not really from Eli's "generation" of QBs. The rest here are Eli's peers. It's not crazy that there will be 8 QBs from this generation inducted into the HOF. You can argue he's the worst of these 8 but if the other 7 all get in the Hall, Eli is too.
  19. I don't think that's really what the law of large numbers means but whatever. But it's an achievement in and of itself to have as long a career and play as many games as Eli has, and your baseline level of talent has to be pretty high to, on more than one occasion, beat arguably the greatest QB of all time on the biggest stage in football just by pure chance. If all it took to occasionally win a couple of fluky Super Bowls is "play enough games" lots of people would do it. The reality is very few ever have, and Eli's among them. He'll get into the Hall for that reason alone.
  20. sz survival 18 82.3% 19 87.8% 20 89.2% 21 91.5% 22 91.8% 23 91.7% 24 92.8% 25 90.1% 26 94.4% 27 95.3% 28 93.8% 29 87.1% 30 93.0%
  21. This is where I'm at. It's not the "Hall of Best Statistics." If it was, there would be no need for humans to vote, you could just look up the numbers. It's the Hall of Fame and if you treat it as such, there's a decent argument that Manning belongs.
  22. Just get rid of OT altogether at this point. If two teams play 60 minutes to a tie, then they tied.
  23. Same here. I'm in two survivors, and have different paths to week 17 mapped out for them, but I'm taking Baltimore in both this week.