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About proteus126

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  1. The stock market (S&P index) isn't going to see a fundamental hit until either (a) the bond side begins offering more appealing returns or (b) believably pro-regulatory/reformist people take both the Executive and Legislative branches. Sure, there will be hiccups now and then, but not a reset of the Schiller PE10. I don't see worldwide rates rising anytime soon, and US politicians by and large are beholden to the major corporations. We will just slowly grind higher. In the near term (12mo) I actually think there is more risk of a melt-up than a melt-down (trade deal). I wouldn't be out of the market right now, but yes I would take profits here and there if I was trying to establish a more conservative asset allocation. Which I personally need to do to some extent.
  2. You were right concerning X-mas Vacation. Your thoughts on B&T were not entirely without merit. But you are being wrong now. Stop it.
  3. A thousand times YES. That song just sounds like the 80's. Too cool.
  4. We are not at the local (August/Sept) bottom yet. I'm watching the VIX, and the S&P 2750 level. If we break meaningfully below 2750 (which would not surprise me, but I doubt happens), then I'd think a subsequent spike in VIX above 25 or 30 would be a buy signal for the short term traders out there. Personally, I'm investing every 2 weeks like usual, so it really doesn't matter too much. Yes, yield inversions point to a stagnant world economy, but low yields will also steer investors into the S&P. I'm guessing that from the 10,000 foot view the S&P will end up around 3500 three years from now (modest growth), on the other side of a mild global recession, a transition from R to D presidency, Brexit in some form, and a few countries defaulting during the tough times. Will probably be quite a ride. I'd be interested to see if/when Siffoin declares that the overall equities trend has gone negative.
  5. Gabriel's Oboe (The Mission) by Morricone is a decent choice
  6. How do these rides compare to the real thing from a calorie standpoint? For an enjoyment standpoint? My benchmark ride is a 15 miler with some moderate hills to keep things interesting. It is a pretty safe ride, mostly neighborhood streets and bike paths. I'm out of the seat on hills but otherwise seated. Hybrid bike (Cannondale), 20 years old now. I paid about $500 for it new. According to the random cycling app I put on my phone (Zeopoxa) I burn about 900 kcal on that ride, which takes an hour. I love cycling outdoors, and to/from work. I have a cheap eddy current resistance bike in the basement, purely for winter and maintenance, which isn't much fun but didn't cost much of anything.
  7. Savage Mill (MD) is reasonable. They have an all-inclusive for under $8k. You'd have to handle the photographer, invitations, a wedding cake, etc. A la cart, you can get the great room for $1500, and use their catering at say $60 per person (station serving). A little more for the open bar, and, again, you need to find the photographer, invitations, cake, etc. $10k-$12k for a no-hassle 100 person wedding in a high COLA area is doable I suppose. Throw in rings, rehearsal dinner, and a nice honeymoon and I can see it all adding to $30k although it could be done for $20k. Two earners who are not right out of college can foot that without crippling themselves. My brother had a $100k wedding back in 1992. Fiancee was daddy's girl. Total waste, and frankly it was more stressful than fun. Divorced in 2007.
  8. I think our wedding was $8k back in 2001, and it was a low stress, unpretentious blast. I was 31 and she was a little older, so no "Daddy please pay for my dream day" nonsense. We paid for the wedding, and just wanted to have a big party for the people we cared about. 100 people. $45 per person for food and open bar. Uncle took photos - his retirement hobby and he was a craftsman. Some old dude who spun platters for weddings to keep busy cost $300 as our DJ - a great deal. Booked the Great Room and deck at Savage Mill for both the service and the party for maybe a $1500. Wife handled the flowers and the invitations, and they were reasonable. She printed the invitations on our Canon printer. I don't remember how much she paid for the card stock, but it was presentable and really who cares? My folks threw a rehearsal dinner at Tursiquels in Ellicott City for about 30 people the night before. I'm sure that wasn't cheap. We honeymooned in Hawaii for a couple of weeks at about $7k. Now THAT was worth spending money on. Retiring at 51 in two years.
  9. Sure. But you won't make more money. Consist investment in VOO is a time tested approach. Sorry to be boring.
  10. Absolutely, get the insurance. Hurricanes interrupted or caused cancellation of our 2003 (Isabel), 2011 (Irene), and 2018 (Florence) September trips. Additionally, during our 2017 trip Irma was modeled to possibly hit from the south before staying inland and going up the Appalachians instead. Then Jose just missed to seaward (after doing a loop). A few days after our vacation ended, Maria caused a mandatory evacuation, although it didn't landfall. We have been doing September trips annually since 2011, and 2002-2004 prior to that. So 3 of 11 trips were impacted, and a 4th (2017) had a couple close calls. Additionally, the risk is elevated if you are staying on Hatteras Island. NC 12 gets overwash in several spots (including a couple north of Rodanthe) due to routine storms where the wind is onshore, and since that is the only road out they pull the evacuation trigger first down there. The evac risk is slightly lower north of Oregon Inlet, and you are usually allowed back in quicker as well. Having insurance saved us $2000 (of $2400) in 2011, and $2000 (of $4000) in 2018. Last year we were refunded the basic rental rate for the 7 days or so that the Dare County mandatory evacuation was in effect. Oh, and read the policy closely. They are all the same, but make sure you understand what is covered, how to initiate a claim, and what docs you need to have. A link to the Dare County evacuation order is a good start.
  11. We do 2 weeks in the village of Salvo on Hatteras Island each year in September, after the rates have dropped. Paradise. Recommend any of the Hatteras Island villages (Rodanthe, Salvo, Waves, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, Hatteras).
  12. They might want to hold off on having kids, though.
  13. A plane with a complement of gregarious, mellow dogs would be really, really cool. I'd seriously pay extra.