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About proteus126

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  1. My inner voice is always in 3rd person. Is that strange?
  2. The Cheers episode where Woody runs for city council has a nice send-up of this.
  3. I wouldn't be at all surprised. An ancillary effect would be to downgrade whatever mortality figure you are working with significantly.
  4. Interestingly, the growth from 30-Jan to 31-Jan is on average about 20%. Suspected +18%, Confirmed +22%, Severe +18%, Dead +22%. The Suspected and Confirmed growth rates have been pretty consistent to each other on any given day. Perhaps Suspected could be used as a proxy for Confirmed going forward, if lab testing capacity becomes an issue. Date range, Suspected, Confirmed 27->28, +32%, +32% 28->29, +32%, +29% 29->30, +25%, +26% 30->31, +18%, +22% The decline is probably indicative of a true reduction in the growth rate. However, each of the reported numbers has potential issues, over and above the fact that they are coming from an authoritarian regime with a long history of manipulating numbers. Confirmed case growth could be limited by laboratory testing capacity. Deceased cases is such a lagging number, so figuring out mortality is a guessing game. If pressed, I'd divide today's total fatalities (259) by the number of Suspected cases from around 5 days ago (~4000?). ~6%. Ouch. Too early to have confidence in such a number at the moment. The virus should mutate and become less brutal over time. Nice to see that the Recovered case number is about to pass the Deceased cases. I'd like to see it blow the number of deceased out of the water over the next week, indicating that the mortality is fairly low.
  5. Any clue as to why the math for "new" cases (especially "Suspected") doesn't work out? I calculate +2750 new (17988-15238) vice the +5019 new above. The Confirmed Cases math seems closer to correct, +2099 (11791-9692) vs +2102 (reported "new"). The Severe, Dead, and Recovered all check out. What's your link - I'd like to track the rates for analysis purposes. Thanks for posting the counts.
  6. Seeing shorts rant and rave and knuckle under is even more entertaining imo. Shorts can tend to lose it when the exuberance of the despised herd puts them in a pickle. Only a small portion have capitulated, so plenty of good teeth-gnashing and buckshot FUD to come potentially. Fun stock to watch, both up and down.
  7. He's also a poster child for the benefits to the US of immigration. Does anyone doubt that his children will be hugely positive contributors to our country? The culture warriors need to take this into account before engineering his demise.
  8. Tough question for her to answer in a way that would mollify the dad. Props to her for just saying "of course not" rather than palavering. I still don't like her, and I of course still dislike the loan forgiveness push.
  9. Hmm. My view of her is that she has always been intelligent and ambitious, but that she is a bit of a tragic figure, albeit one I have a hard time feeling sympathy for. By nature she is more of a grinder than a leader. She is an effective collaborator but not an inspiring figure. Senator and S.O.S. is a pretty solid career. However her ambition pushed her to try for more. She got close, but was unlucky to coincide with the Obama phenomenon. She was lucky to have Trump as an opponent, but all her weaknesses were exposed resulting in an inexcusable loss. The weight of decades of compromise (personal grifting, Bill) caught up to her. Her odor of rank ambition and entitlement was offputting. An easy person to get tired of. So she failed to become what she felt she was destined to become, and was owed, and was in a commanding position to achieve. Crushing. Hard to accept. That person will look for external causes to account for such a failure, and won't look good doing it. In 50 years will she be a significant American figure? I doubt it. Her legacy will likely be to serve as a cautionary tale.