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Everything posted by karmarooster

  1. Psyched for football to be back! Haven't taken a major look at Week 1 yet, but am thinking the chalk defense play is going to target @ NYJ or @ Bills every single week.
  2. Pulled out my cash but still have enough FD points for the $1 GPP: Ryan Freeman, Ty Edelman, Cobb, [Sanu/Gabriel/Hogan] Cook, [Bryant/Gostk.], Pats Seems like Cobb and Cook will be the beneficiaries of GB WR injuries. However I haven't seen anything about Jeff Janis -- when pressed into service last year in the playoffs due to WR injuries, he had a huge 7-145-2 game. What am I missing?
  3. I'm thinking the NE game favors Edelman, Lewis/White and Bennett in the middle of the field, over the outside WRs and Blount due to Houston have a solid perimeter pass defense and run defense. Lewis got pretty decent touch numbers (double digit run attempts) in the last few weeks of the regular season in order to get him primed. Always difficult to guess with Bill, but I think he's the primary back for this game until Blount takes over in the second half to grind down the clock.
  4. I think the best alternative to the Pats is to play the Chiefs at home, and stack with T. Hill. If he runs back a PR, you get double points. As good as he is, I think it's more likely that the Pats force Brock into multiple turnovers, but it's a pretty decent high risk, high reward play (but will also be fairly popular in the GPPs).
  5. Made two initial LUs before the value charts are out. ASmith at home is just too cheap at 6800 to pass up, as it makes room for so many other studs. He also usually rushes a bit more in the playoffs, and there's a chance Andy Reid dials up 50 pass attempts as he did last year against NE. 1) Smith Zeke, Freeman Baldwin, Cobb, Sanu --> punt at WR3 Kelce, Gosk, Pats 2) Smith Zeke, Coleman --> punt at RB2 Baldwin, Dez, Cobb Kelce, Santos, Pats
  6. This was my first thought looking at the RBs. Only other considerations for RB in my opinion are Bell (but 10k), Zenner (but @ Seattle) and Ajayi (more expensive than Miller). I'm hoping multiple Cook TOs and Houston keeping the ball out of the hands of Brock leads to a heavy workload. My LU so far: Wilson - seems to be the best value at QB Bell / Miller - for reasons above, Bell should be worth the cost and other than Brown and ODB are the only studs available. Adams / Baldwin / Tate -- I like Adams for his price more than Jordy (1.5K less). Baldwin is a somewhat risky stack with Wilson, but I like his price. For WR3, I'm thinking Tate over Crabtree. I figure the Cook factor is worse than Tate having to deal with Seattle DBs. I'm thinking Sherman covers outside WRs and perhaps Jones while Tate gets moved around potentially to the slot and picks up a lot of short passes. Stafford >>> Cook. But would love to hear other opinions here. CJ / Kicker / Houston -- Would like to have Graham but there's no cash. Houston seems like the chalk Def.
  7. My main damn cash Lineup with ASmith put up 117.5 to miss the cut on 90% of my 50/50s. That lateral to Poe was the difference!
  8. Crap, I have most lineups built around Smith, Cooper, Maclin and Kelce too. Thanks for the heads up, it's worth monitoring as the weather could easily change from forecast 48 hours out.
  9. Need a cheap WR3 to fill a hole in this cash lineup: ASmith Bell, McCoy/Michael Cooper, Landry/Maclin, [???] Kelce/Walker, Haush/Crosby/Novak, Bills/Titans I'll probably play 2-3 variations of this lineup, and am looking at the following WR3s: Cole Beasley Tavon Austin Robert Woods Michael Thomas Cameron Meredith I don't love any of them, but the Value Chart is all over Thomas and Meredith. Maybe a dent for Thomas is that Snead is back (although he is used differently than Thomas who's more in the Colston role). Meredith has just one data point, which was a nice game last week but before that had just 4-28, but there's so little history. Assuming that Dez comes back puts a slight dent in Beasley, but he's still probably one of the safer punts for 5-10 points. Tavon Austin has a nice matchup but really have a hard time putting him in the lineup. Robert Woods has a nice matchup as the "WR1" for the Bills but is more of a GPP play. Beasley and Austin may have the best floors, while Thomas and Meredith have better ceilings. Any thoughts?
  10. Ok, fair enough. It's probably nothing but there's an easy pivot to Ertz for $100 more, so I may split up my Thursday entries out of an abundance of caution.
  11. Where do you see this on Rudolph? Only thing I see is that he returned today (and was out yesterday due to his wife giving birth rather than true injury)
  12. I realized that Hoyer's placement on the "average" for Value/H-Value etc. is due to Maurile having him projected for 7.8 points (currently less than Cutler). Dodds and Bloom have him at 16 and 17 and Cutler at zero. There's no way he plays, right? Latest per Roto is that he missed practice and is "day to day".... so makes me some what nervous for a Thursday slate.
  13. Current Thurs LU for cash: Hoyer DJohnson / McKinnon ABrown / Cooper / Sanders Rudolph / Crosby / Vikes
  14. I'm not counting on a let-down for Wentz as he's got a nice matchup and is coming off a bye. But had not considered the impact Ertz's return could have. Thought that might be a problem since they generally occupy the same interior of the field, but Week 1 against CLE Ertz had 6/58 and JMatt 7/114/1.
  15. Rounding this back to Hoyer in Week 5.... he put 20 against the Lions. He put up 19 against the Cowboys. Dodds has him not at 2x or even 2.5x but nearly 3x. So who's more likely to hit 3x value... Hoyer, who has done so each of the last two weeks (at his current price point), or Brady to hit 26 points in his first game back, not having played since Pre-4, with a gimpy Gronk (if at all)? Sure, that's certainly possible for a QB of his caliber and if we buy into the 'pissed off' narrative, plus he does have a good matchup with CLE (but so does Hoyer with IND). Seems that Hoyer is the better GPP play and Brady possible the better cash play, as the chances of Brady putting up less than 2x are less likely than Hoyer putting up less than 2x. For Dak, week 1 was the aberration for his season. He was $5k that week, and only hit 10 points so "only" 2x. Every other week he would've been a tourney winner at that price point -- 18, 23, 18 points for over 3.5x, over 4.5x, and over 3.5x (assuming still priced at 5k). I don't think you can point to that 1 week where he only hit 2x value and say "See? I told you so" when his performance over the other 3 weeks shows that a starting QB with rushing ability priced at $5k is a no-brainer. His price was an anomaly that week, as he and every other starting QB should be priced at a minimum in the 6k-7.5k range.
  16. Not sure why. Dodds showed two lineups, including a Rivers stack, that included T. Benjamin. Roto's matchup blurb, which labels Benjamin a "WR3 with WR2 upside" and Williams a "high-floor, high-ceiling WR3": Rivers' targets since Keenan Allen tore his ACL in Week 1: Travis Benjamin 20; Tyrell Williams 19; Gordon andDontrelle Inman 10; Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates 6; Dexter McCluster 3. ... Williams logged a career-high 85% of the Chargers' Week 3 snaps and led the team in targets (9) and catches (6). Through three games, the Saints have already allowed five different receivers to top 80 yards against them. With his usage continuing to rise, Williams is a high-floor, high-ceiling WR3 play. Williams leads San Diego in red-zone targets (6) and is tied with Gates for most targets inside the ten-yard line (2). ... Benjamin has led San Diego in receiving yards (115, 82) in consecutive games. Williams and Benjamin are playing all three receiver positions in San Diego's offense -- slot, X, Z -- making them difficult to pinpoint on the field until just before the snap. Benjamin leads the Bolts in targets of 20-plus yards (4) and should be approached as a WR3 with WR2 upside against the NFL's worst secondary. ... Inman is playing too many snaps with top-shelf quarterback play to not have a big week eventually, but his target totals through three games are 3, 3, 4. Inman is a low-floor WR4 in deeper PPR leagues. ... Second-round pick Henry played 97% of the Chargers' Week 3 snaps and caught 5-of-5 targets for 76 yards. Rookie tight ends usually scare me as fantasy investments, but Henry has a chance to be different. In a probable high-scoring affair, Henry is squarely in the TE1 streamer discussion.
  17. Cuts will certainly be higher this week for Thursday as AJG was 48-49% owned in 50/50s and 33% owned in GPP, going off for 28 points (about 3.5x).
  18. Here's my FD-NBA-inspired stars and scrubs (cash) lineup: Cam Bell, Gordon Brown, T. Benjamin, Beasley Henry, Hopkins, Pats
  19. I'm struggling with it too. For GPP, there are two very good arguments for avoiding -- likely to be highly owned, and probably doesn't have a high ceiling due to the matchup and opposing QB. For cash games, it's trickier. Let's say you pair him with the Dolphins D for a bit of stability in case the game gets out of hand due to a pick-6, etc. Again, he probably doesn't have a high ceiling and the Browns Defense did not let the past two QBs reach 20 points. But he probably has a very solid floor, and I'm expecting that the team wants to use this home game (home opener) as a "get right", and may be more inclined to keep up the tempo even if the game is out of hand in the 2nd half. And they probably don't have the personnel to run well, despite the solid matchup. On the other hand, if he's highly owned and doesn't have a great game, you're a leg up on a large portion of the field. I think the range of outcomes here, from most likely to least, are: solid but unspectacular value (e.g 15-18 points), a stinker of a game due to not needing to do much (e.g. 10-15 points), and a very solid game pushing 3x in value (e.g. 20+). Given that range of outcomes, I'm not super excited about the play, unless it's a partial hedge against the likely highest owned QB in a cupcake matchup at home, and when paired with the Defense. For that reason he'll probably be the "other" lineup I roll out for cash, with my favored QB being Mariotta.
  20. Awesome work Bloom! Start 2 of these 3 / Sit 1: Willie Snead Crabtree McCoy
  21. I wouldn't roll with Cook in a cash game. Pitta is an easy pivot at the same price.
  22. Thanks for the homer perspective... still think I prefer Reed in cash to him but he's not a bad option for a punt.
  23. For a cheap TE, I had been looking at Pitta (cash) and Cook (GPP), but just saw this on Rotoworld: Dennis Pitta at Jaguars: It’s hard to advise sitting Pitta after he drew a dozen targets last week. But the Jaguars have allowed a league-low five catches for 44 yards to opposing tight ends through two weeks. Antonio Gates got them for a touchdown in Week 2, but still finished the day with just three grabs for 15 yards. The additions of FSTashaun Gipson and slot CB Jalen Ramsey to WLB Telvin Smith have greatly improved the Jaguars’ middle-of-the-field pass defense. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Sr. have better matchups on the outside this Sunday. I don't love hardly any of the options this week at TE.
  24. What do we think about this lineup for the Survivor? I've got 5 entries alive, and one more cut at 50% to get to the last week where prizes are guaranteed. In theory it's a cash game, but it's probably tougher than 50/50s because the remaining entries have survived the first two weeks. Tanny CJA/Gordon --> Prefer D. Johnson? Landry/Travis Benjamin/JMatt --> Prefer Marvin or Diggs? Reed/Boswell/Dolphins --> Prefer Vinatieri? I could switch up JMatt for Marvin straight up, or drop down to Diggs to free up enough cash to upgrade CJA to David Johnson and upgrade the kicker to Vinatieri. I don't love Diggs on the road though, and really feel like I'm just trying to hit some doubles here. *While writing this up I started to consider avoiding Landry due to already having Tannehill, and rolling with Marvin, Diggs and Benjamin to upgrade DJA to David Johnson. Feels a little more balanced.