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inyoutees

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About inyoutees

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  1. Jokes aside, I'm honestly curious what the outcome here will be. PFF has Winston's poor production overwhelmingly on deep passes/routes, despite the stereotype I had of him being a deep gunslinger
  2. I have the following articles saved for some time distant in the future when I have the opportunity to sit down an try to replicate some stuff in excel, which is how it turns from "something interesting I read" to "something I feel I understand." So with that caveat that I've only read and not sure I intuitively "get" yet, I thought these were interesting on WR production. https://twitrsports.com/2019/09/14/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-1-breakouts/ https://twitrsports.com/2019/10/29/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-2-breakouts-but-later/ Part 1 is probably better for understanding their process (with a weird hook of "oh I never thought of that"), part 2 with the updated model that seems to fit common sense much more closely. Not sure helpful for you, but FYI edit: still not an indicator for "repeating" but another person's look at the factors that matter.
  3. Whatever it's worth pre-combine, but Brugler's article at Athletic has Akers listed at 214
  4. I can't speak to his accuracy and I haven't watched either myself, but I found it interesting that NFL's Lance Zierlein had Leake (who was completely off my radar) graded at 6.3 ("talent to become dependable starter within the first couple of seasons") and McFarland graded at 5.53 ("could land at the back-end of a roster or on a practice squad... will always be fighting for a roster spot")
  5. I'm in a deep IDP dynasty league. Price for me was roughly late 4th to early 5th. Depending on what you think of this year's crop of WR, I think late 2nd is reasonable. Depending on your situation, upside of a rookie longer timeframe for it to play out and someone like a McLaurin to happen. Upside of Ross is you'll probably know within a year whether you have something worth keeping (or trading) but it might also be 2 years and a drop. For whatever it's worth, a couple trade calculators I use (doesn't include IDP) has Ross at about late 2nd value as well. I'd be happier cheaper, but it seems reasonable.
  6. Agreed. I bought Ross before the 2019 season. While I was encouraged with his usage, PFF grades still weren't particularly high and completion rate was low in my eyes. I can't tell you if that was crappy uncatchable throws or bad receiving as I didn't see any games. What I'm optimistic about was the 2019 injury was a broken collarbone, while all previous injuries were lower-body soft tissue stuff. I don't consider the collarbone related to previous muscle injuries and am hopeful after 3 years in an NFL training program that perhaps he will have put those injuries behind him, at least for one season. If you have room, I think he makes a good flier. But he's a flier, not someone with an established role like some of the others in the thread where folks are expecting simply higher production
  7. I had to dig in to this after missing all 2019 draft discussion and seeing Zyphros mention Moore in the offseason stashes thread. Just FYI, Jalin Moore spent the 2019 season on the Jets Reserve/NFI list. I don't have a strong opinion but taking a flier on him this offseason
  8. Nailed it. Not sure the podcast you listened to, but there's quite a bit of work in this area. Clayton Christensen's "jobs to be done" stuff is another way of thinking about solving customer problems I find useful. Just FYI if looking for more rabbit holes to go down. The instagram founders had a recent podcast that was pretty interesting from this perspective as well (http://investorfieldguide.com/instagram/) As a deep IDP dynasty player, I can obviously echo asking for more information/articles but I don't think you should focus on people asking for more content here, it sort of misses the point. I'll echo the above * Cut down on "noise" to make it as easy as possible for people to find the information/articles/projections of interest to them. League Dominator is awesome at this (and offers some of the feature requests I've seen in the thread) but as an example, I only just realized Bloom's Buy Low / Sell High article started discussing dynasty moves for the offseason a few weeks ago. My problem was finding that Bloom's article now applied to content I was interested in. Sometimes this is you competing vs time ("I don't have enough time to go track this down, what are the key things I need to read") and sometimes this is you competing vs information overload. I still sometimes make a point of pulling up your player info pages to see which articles they've been mentioned in... but it feels clunky. Maybe an easy addition to league dominator? I'm sure there are more examples here. * Increase entertainment value. You nailed it with subscriber contest, playoff contest, things of that nature. I assume there is more you could do in these areas, but FBG contests or fun in addition to fantasy football (or "on top of") is likely good for you. You'll have to check the numbers as I don't know them. * I think the retrospective idea mentioned earlier might be an interesting need. I found myself loving the team strength stuff in league dominator, but wishing I could have seen the numbers from the beginning of the season. Or similarly, despite my hatred of them, ESPN and the like keep pushing "expected win percentage" stuff on NFL games. I assume they do it because someone is using it. Maybe a live scoring feature on FBG for fantasy games? League dominator sort of does this, but you don't emphasis it through the UI. Wouldn't get much use from me, but who knows * I agree with the "make customers feel smarter" comment above as well. Waldman and Harstad get a lot of clicks from me, but I imagine that is likely a certain subset of FBG customers and gets lost in the data when you look at overall popular articles. There might be something there worth segmenting or making easier to find. The more I type out, the more I wonder if the answer is simply building your content around league dominator rather than having it be its own stand-alone tool. From reading the thread, it sure sounds like FBG needs a video tutorial of league dominator and all the features inside. Distributions on forecasts, expecting win percentage, get the IDP matchup spreadsheet and "ARI gives up most points to TE" data in there, etc. It's a nice system and historically FBG has done a really nice job solving my problems ahead of the competition, so I expect you won't have any trouble continuing to find ideas.
  9. inyoutees

    FBG IDP Content

    I have zero inside information here, but I am always curious if Schauf is being actively recruited to the team and/or couldn't join up until 2020 for whatever reason. At least that's my hope. Re: Tietgen, unless I changed weightings at one point it seems about 90-95% Norton and very little Tietgen. There's some value in tempering current expectations with pre-season expectations (I think Harstad has written about this) so I wonder if that's why Tietgen's numbers are still being used. Obviously no value in looking at them as current projections though. Just a couple random ### guesses here. Otherwise I agree. Hoping to see the potential upside next year.
  10. PFF reports Tranquill started the game, but I didn't watch. PFF has starting LB as Tranquill, Davis, and White. Own him in deep dynasty and my read is the same as Mac_32 above, this is all about next year. But I suppose reasonable flier for the rest of 2019.
  11. Just one more anecdotal data point. I bought Guice and a pick for spare parts a month ago. Might he be a zero? Absolutely yes. But I believe there are asymmetric outcomes here - the change in value if he goes to zero pales in comparison to the change in value if he hits, even if just for one season. As you (Dr. Dan) said, the right time to sell is probably draft if he finishes strong or middle of next season if he's put in some good tape. As usual though, the contending vs rebuilding spectrum can change the math. That said, if you can get a first for him, that's probably where I have to start thinking about it. I expect getting that offer would be tough sledding though
  12. inyoutees

    Box Safeties

    I missed this comment the first time, but just found him separately looking at points over the last few weeks. Deep dynasty league here, so my level of interest in guys doesn't translate very well. But anyone have additional thoughts on Chuck Clark, any chance he's the future in Baltimore? I haven't been watching for him so haven't noticed his play. Baltimore safeties don't seem to be uber fantasy scorers, but might be a good stretch run guy for redraft Clark is 2017 6th rounder and is currently wearing the green dot for Baltimore. Tony Jefferson out for the year and signed for $7m for only 2020, UFA in 2021. PFF seems more or less favorable on Clark, and he's getting basically 100% of snaps the last 3 weeks with most of them being in the box.
  13. I've trying for weeks to pry away Willis (dynasty). Didn't test well, but sure looks like the long term Geathers replacement in Indy. Sure seems like Indy knows what attributes it wants to fit the scheme. Siran Neal was also slated for the big nickel package in BUF from my reading in the offseason as they talked at least of using that subpackage more. I'm not sure on the excitement here either, but people have snatched up Raven Green and Javon Kearse in my league
  14. I know this isn't what you're asking, but you can see projections here https://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections.php
  15. Late to the party here, but thanks Faust. Great stuff