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Everything posted by inyoutees

  1. inyoutees

    FBG IDP Content

    I have zero inside information here, but I am always curious if Schauf is being actively recruited to the team and/or couldn't join up until 2020 for whatever reason. At least that's my hope. Re: Tietgen, unless I changed weightings at one point it seems about 90-95% Norton and very little Tietgen. There's some value in tempering current expectations with pre-season expectations (I think Harstad has written about this) so I wonder if that's why Tietgen's numbers are still being used. Obviously no value in looking at them as current projections though. Just a couple random ### guesses here. Otherwise I agree. Hoping to see the potential upside next year.
  2. PFF reports Tranquill started the game, but I didn't watch. PFF has starting LB as Tranquill, Davis, and White. Own him in deep dynasty and my read is the same as Mac_32 above, this is all about next year. But I suppose reasonable flier for the rest of 2019.
  3. Just one more anecdotal data point. I bought Guice and a pick for spare parts a month ago. Might he be a zero? Absolutely yes. But I believe there are asymmetric outcomes here - the change in value if he goes to zero pales in comparison to the change in value if he hits, even if just for one season. As you (Dr. Dan) said, the right time to sell is probably draft if he finishes strong or middle of next season if he's put in some good tape. As usual though, the contending vs rebuilding spectrum can change the math. That said, if you can get a first for him, that's probably where I have to start thinking about it. I expect getting that offer would be tough sledding though
  4. inyoutees

    Box Safeties

    I missed this comment the first time, but just found him separately looking at points over the last few weeks. Deep dynasty league here, so my level of interest in guys doesn't translate very well. But anyone have additional thoughts on Chuck Clark, any chance he's the future in Baltimore? I haven't been watching for him so haven't noticed his play. Baltimore safeties don't seem to be uber fantasy scorers, but might be a good stretch run guy for redraft Clark is 2017 6th rounder and is currently wearing the green dot for Baltimore. Tony Jefferson out for the year and signed for $7m for only 2020, UFA in 2021. PFF seems more or less favorable on Clark, and he's getting basically 100% of snaps the last 3 weeks with most of them being in the box.
  5. I've trying for weeks to pry away Willis (dynasty). Didn't test well, but sure looks like the long term Geathers replacement in Indy. Sure seems like Indy knows what attributes it wants to fit the scheme. Siran Neal was also slated for the big nickel package in BUF from my reading in the offseason as they talked at least of using that subpackage more. I'm not sure on the excitement here either, but people have snatched up Raven Green and Javon Kearse in my league
  6. I know this isn't what you're asking, but you can see projections here
  7. Late to the party here, but thanks Faust. Great stuff
  8. Updating Colts Position Battles After Four Training Camp Practices
  9. After many weeks of avoiding this thread... Ghost entry still, amazingly, alive. Thank you Mr. Blackmon. Still don't know what I was thinking with Steven Jackson, and can't believe I've "survived" after my week 4 exit with Gates. Egad. Haven't been regretting things too much as I still don't think I had much of a chance at the final 250. Now that I'm posting about it, I'll be sure to be ghost eliminated next week, letting me sleep easy.
  10. I just realized he doesn't even have a flex.And he outscored me this week. :lmao: He outscored me, too. And I've got Kaeding... Wouldn't have made the hypothetical cut without Kaeding either... Going to be an interesting year
  11. Entirely fair points, and you are completely correct on the opportunity cost of the risk/reward you see elsewhere in the roster choices. I feel that people tend to "put blinders on" across positions to some extent. ie: "Here are my RB byes, they're balanced. Oops, I forgot to look at the combination of WR + RB byes" sort of thing. I know I do this, and I get the sense from many posts here that others do the same. That said, that's entirely what I did when evaluating the Mendy/Dwyer picks... If either one becomes the main RB in PIT, I think we all believe they are both vastly more talented than $4 (or even $8). My bet was simply that I wanted the PIT backfield for $8 versus any other RB I could pick up for that price. Obviously I'm discounting Redman, but I simply don't see the talent with him. But your point is well taken - saving $4 on one of the runners plus one of my 4 defenses, and suddenly I can afford one of the better backup QBs I would have liked to have - and that's simply a risk/reward calculation I didn't make because of my "RB blinders" when making the evaluation. Thanks for the helpful post.Edit:Not arguing the point one way or the other, but I found this interesting:Total teams with Mendenhall: 2,426Total teams with Dwyer: 1,637Total teams with both: 338So there are 4k+ people who believe the PIT RB situation is likely to have good production later in the season. (I didn't look at Redman ownership and if any of these rosters were handcuffing him) But only 338 who thought the opportunity cost of $4 was worth getting both backs on their team. The PIT RB situation is more muddled with 3 RBs, but I'm curious if this selection trend holds in other situations where there are only two players to consider. If I get around to looking at it, I'll post something
  12. Time to show off my rooster. I'm a believer in big rosters and bye week balance. More below. Pos Player Team Bye PriceQB D Brees NO 6 $29QB R Tannehill MIA 7 $4 Like many this year, I've hopped on the stud QB bandwagon. Unlike last year (Romo/Stafford) I almost went with no backup hoping the early bye for Brees doesn't kill me. Surprisingly enough, I survived week 5 last year (I believe it was, don't quote me) fairly easily with a zero QB score, so this can be done. I would like to have a better backup QB, and had one of the $11 guys in there for a long time (Fitz/Luck) but in the end believed that relying on either of them to win was a losing proposition. Thought long and hard about Stafford and Vick here, but just thought Brees was better. Not buying the Ryan hype yet, or at least not without a good quality backup - and couldn't get any combination anywhere close to the value of Brees at $29. RB S Jackson STL 9 $22RB D Martin TB 5 $21RB D Wilson NYG 11 $9RB R Mendenhall PIT 4 $4RB J Dwyer PIT 4 $4RB C Benson GB 10 $3 I always seem to go short on RBs in this contest. I can't tell exactly why I have that tendency, but I made an effort to take higher-rated guys rather than a smattering of lower-level guys. I'm not sure I went far enough. That said, I'm happy with this group. I believe one of the overriding lessons from last year was that the smart play in this contest is to select both properly talented players in a productive situations who are discounted by muddled "starter" information. ie: TE Gronk AND Hernandez was the play last year at their prices. This year, I think the PIT backfield of Mendy + Dwyer (assuming your perspective is the later half of the season) is a similar play. For the price, I'm surprised to see so many rosters with only one of the two. STL WRs, ARI RBs, and NE RBs might be other similar situations this year. I felt like there was a ton of <$10 value at RB, and had to drastically cut back when I realized I had 10 rostered. Thought Martin had lots of upside and that Jackson could see a lot more work with Fisher in STL. WR P Harvin MIN 11 $20WR D Bryant DAL 5 $18WR E Decker DEN 7 $17WR R Wayne IND 4 $15WR T Young DET 5 $10WR J Blackmon JAX 6 $7WR S Smith STL 9 $5WR M Manningham SF 9 $4 Chalk me up as another believer in quantity here. For a long time I had 10 WRs and it was the last position I trimmed back, with lots of values under $10. Honestly there were lots of values below $20, I felt. Now that I've drawn attention to the wisdom of picking both cheap STL WRs, I can't tell you why I didn't do so here. I typically like to avoid late week byes (especially week 11) but simply thought Harvin was too much of a value. Also, I'm expecting my flex to typically come from the WR/TE pool, and by week 11 I'm hoping my PIT RB investment can pick up the flex potential of Percy's bye. Strongly considered Harry Douglass, Ogletree (doh), Kenny Britt, and Mike Wallace here. In the end, thinking of Wayne/Wallace/Britt as my WR4, I went with consistency over upside. I don't know if it was a wise decision, but I do have strong belief that any of these guys could start for me any week. TE A Gates SD 7 $20TE B Pettigrew DET 5 $15 I just couldn't pull the trigger on Graham/Gronk. I'm a believer in Gates as the top target in SD, and that Pettigrew's "move the chains" usage results in more TDs this year. I think he had a very quiet but extremely solid performance in this contest last year. I'm hoping for more of the same. PK N Kaeding SD 7 $4PK R Bironas HOU 11 $3PK R Lindell BUF 8 $3TD Raiders OAK 5 $4TD Saints NO 6 $3TD Chiefs KC 7 $3TD Panthers CAR 6 $3 APalmer said it earlier. I think K and D are underrated in this contest. Looking back, I have no idea how I ended up with these picks, but I'm a believer in a solid 3 each, and ended up with 4 D because I couldn't find any QBs $3 more expensive than Tannehill I would rather have. Naturally, now that $3 sure looks like a nice Ogletree pick, but whatever. 25 total players, which is definitely lower than usual for me. "Stud" Byes: 4: WR Wayne5: RB Martin, WR Bryant, TE Pettigrew6: QB Brees7: WR Decker, TE Gates8: none9: RB Jackson10: none11: WR Harvin I have definitely come to believe that if you are to have a multiple-bye week (or super stud bye week) you want it to occur as early in the season as possible. Obviously the first priority is drafting players you believe in, but for me byes are more than simply a tie-breaker. Week 5 and 7 are clearly my weakest byes, but I feel I can survive week 5 while missing a number of preseason studs as we'll still be weeding out a lot of ill-formed entries by that time. My Jackson and Harvin (top dollar players at respective positions) byes make me nervous, but I'm happy with the bye week distribution and hope that my cheaper guys (such as PIT backfield) have emerged by that time to pick up the slack. Great contest, great thread as always. Thanks everyone.