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About 10tihwj

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  • Birthday 09/17/1978

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  1. 2011 Cincinnati - Cedric Benson - 273/1067/6 2012 Cincinnati - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 278/1094/6 2013 Cincinnati - Green-Ellis - 220/756/7 That probably gives you the idea on Morris going forward. He's clearly more talented than Benson and BJGE at the end of their careers, and so you would expect him to get around 275-300 touches this year. He's likely to do more with those touches than Benson and BJGE did and even if he does not, that keeps him on his current pace. For dynasty, only when BJGE got older and more pedestrian and a dynamic talent in Geo Bernard arrived did his role diminish severely. Even then, he got 220 runs. At Morris' career ratios, that would give him a season of 220/1012/7, which is still at his current levels. It's realistic to be worried about it, but if Gruden truly likes the two-back system, the bruiser back is still going to see a volume of touches. 220 is probably the floor, and it's BJGE's lack of skill that had him doing so little with it in 2013.
  2. Early in the thread, I saw Morris as a sell-high candidate who was unlikely to replicate 355/1613/13 again. In 2013, he went 276/1275/7 and drifted down into that 10-15 range. At this point, he's a buy-low guy to me. The Washington offense has not been consistent (and at times outright terrible) and Morris is still 6th in rushing attempts, 8th in rushing yards and 5th in rushing touchdowns for a 97/386/3 line. He's likely to hit 259/1029/8 this year if nothing gets better. But RGIII has been out, Jordan Reed has been out, Niles Paul got concussed and was out in one game and Cousins has been erratic. They're also in a new offense with a new WR in Desean Jackson that they're still figuring out. I see no reason why Morris can't improve on his current RB2 line and even if he does not, he is probably available more cheaply as a RB2 than he has ever been. I'd buy him at this point with last season as an expectation.
  3. For those citing to Donald Brown's poor pass-blocking, I can say after watching T-Rich that he's not that proficient a pass-blocker either. Perhaps teams are jumping into the backfield on him because there is no worry that he's going to do anything but run straight forward. You plug gaps too aggressively with a RB who possesses plus vision and he will bounce it outside or cutback into another hole. No real risk of T-Rich doing that at this point and no real fear that he's going to get to the 2nd level and break one.
  4. Or... 2nd week in the last three where Morris got robbed of three rushing TDs, this time by FB Darrel Young. This is what I got a lot of grief for in March, when I said that Morris would be far closer to RB2 status than a RB1: [*]RGIII may not be as hurt as he was last year. [*]Morris will not be the only healthy RB on the team. [*]It will be hard to score 13+ TDs again. [*]A healthier Helu or some other option will likely take Morris off the field on 3rd downs. [*]He's not likely to get 90% of the RB carries next year. [*]The Redskins are likely to score more of their TDs via pass.Last year, Morris' backups/competition had 37 carries all year. Helu and Young have 45 carries already along with 7 pilfered TDs. Morris is on pace for 266-1372-10. That is a 21% loss in carries from 2012. In PPR, that puts him behind Charles, McCoy, Lynch, Peterson, Moreno, Forte, Bush, Fred Jackson, Woodhead, Bernard, Gore, Murray, Sproles, CJ?K, Foster and Pierre Thomas. I suspect Morris will stay steady and a couple guys will find it tough to keep up their current pace due to injury/opportunity, and Morris will creep up into the 10-15 range, but I don't see him passing Charles, McCoy, Lynch, Peterson, Forte, Bush, Bernard or Gore. He's also down to 10th in attempts/game, behind guys like Eddie Lacy and Reggie Bush.
  5. Browns RBs in 2013 Willis McGahee 59 164 2.8 1 Trent Richardson 31 105 3.4 0 McGahee signed with Cleveland after Richardson was traded, had no training camp, was coming off an injury and is 31, having had a number of debilitating injuries in his career. Add to it the disparity in Indianapolis so far, and there is the strong makings of the argument that Richardson is simply ordinary. I think you have to give him until after the Colts' bye, however, to really start drawing conclusions.
  6. Tate's numbers have been really good, but it doesn't mean that the Texans are A) going to move away from Foster or B) Tate has no value as a flex play. Tate has been getting 12 touches a game. His carries are on pace for 144, less than his 2011 year. In 2011, Tate put up 175/942/4. Not bad as a flex play, even with a healthy Foster. Even in that year, Foster was a top 3 fantasy RB with 278/1224/10 (and 53/617/2 receiving). The Texans run, and they run a lot. One of the rare situations where both guys have value. Foster owners should be far happier with his week 1 workload (18 rushes, 6 catches) than what he did in 2012 (run into a brick wall 15 times a week). Point is, even if Tate is bumped to 15-18 touches a game, Foster is going to end up with 18-20 carries and 3-6 receptions. The Texans ran the ball 508 times last year and their backs caught 54 passes. In 2011, the Texans ran the ball 546 times and their backs caught 67 passes. Schaub threw 93 passes in the first two weeks, and the Texans had to come from behind in both games. That's not going to continue all season.
  7. Not a Morris hater, just pointing out some questions about whether he can ever meet last year's production. There are many, many objective signs out there to say that he cannot, and that he is just one of those high floor-low ceiling guys who, in even a very good scenario, is not apt to crack the top 10 going forward and is just as likely to hit the 15-18 range.
  8. 10-15 touches a game is a lot, and takes me back to the prior argument I made about normalizing Morris' 2012 season. The backup RBs got 37 carries for the entire year last year.
  9. Morris runs a 4.67 40. Even his supporters say it is "functional speed". He's a big guy, a bruiser. It's not rocket science.
  10. Helu brings something that Morris doesn't: explosiveness. Shanahan has to be more judicious with RGIII, which probably means less read option. So when he does call the read option, he wants more than 6-8 yards out of the RB, and Morris is no real threat to break it.
  11. How's this?
  12. Couple things... 1) Terms of Ogbonnaya's two year contract has not been disclosed. He was a RFA, but was retained early in the offseason. Without knowing the figures, one cannot even guess as to whether it keeps him on the team or not. He wouldn't be the first guy to be cut after a two-year extension. Lewis was not on the roster at this point and the NFL draft has not even happened yet. 2) Lewis' presence does not mean that he and Hardesty are competing for the same spot. Lewis is not an every down back, has return skills and is a smallish back. The depth chart could easily be Richardson, Hardesty and Lewis. Lewis duplicates nearly everything that Ogbonnaya can bring to the table and more but neither he nor Ogbonnaya project well as a back to handle the ball in the event of a Richardson injury. They could also keep four RBs, though less likely. Situation to watch going forward, but it does not appear clear yet who will be the 2-3 RBs behind Richardson.
  13. SSOG - I appreciate the more detailed narrative on Shanahan. I still think he devalues a starter at RB as a long-term solution, and his situation is more fluid because of his perceived ability to pull guys out of the woodwork, but I can buy the logic on what you are saying. I think where that leaves the topic is Morris' place in the rankings for the upcoming season (and not from a dynasty perspective). Absent injuries to others, I think his absolute ceiling is still pretty much in the 7-10 area, but I think the case has been made that 335 carries and 13 TDs is an unreasonable set of expectations. Without a significant bump in receiving statistics, any reduction in volume or rushing TDs puts Morris at the fringe of a RB1/RB2 guy. Like I said earlier, Morris got 90% of the Redskins' RB carries in 2012. The other top-10 workhorses for 2012 look something like this: 351 - Arian Foster - 73% 348 - Adrian Peterson - 87% 319 - Doug Martin - 86% 315 - Marshawn Lynch - 73% 290 - Stevan Ridley - 60% 285 - Jamaal Charles - 63% 278 - Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis - 77% 276 - Shonn Greene - 66% 276 - Chris Johnson - 88% Morris was the only top-10 back in carries to eclipse 90% in RB carries in 2012 and only Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Chris Johnson were within 12 percentage points of him. What are the chances he does that again? At last year's volume, Morris loses about 19-20 carries for each 5 percent drop in his share of the RB market in Washington.(A drop to 85% of the RB carries costs him about 19 carries, 80% costs him 38 carries, etc) Also, Washington was 3rd in the league in rushing attempts last year and 30th in passing attempts. The split was 515 rushes, 442 passes. Will they do that again? It doesn't take a genius to run the possibilities. A 50/50 split combined with Morris only getting 80% of the carries, with every other split and stat staying equal, drops him to 278 carries, a 17% drop in workload. 278-1339-11 would be good enough to keep him in the top 10. Someone got upset what I posted that a return to pre-RGIII pace would have put Morris at 307-1475-8 for 2012. Normalizing his 2012 workload and then figuring a likely drop in workload of around 17% in 2013 and you're staring a season of 255-1224-7 in the face. Still really want that guy on my team, but that isn't a top 10 RB. Some will say I'm making too many guesses and engaging in too many "what-if" scenarios. Maybe I am, but I play in a lot of PPR/IDP dynasty leagues and figuring out the value of my RBs is a major priority. Sometimes you trade them too early, sometimes you don't, but I always try to avoid being the guy holding them when their value decreases.
  14. Shanahan does have a history of riding these RBs... until he doesn't. He traded Portis (healthy) for Champ Bailey and replaced him with Reuben Droughns. He let Reuben Droughns go (healthy-UFA deal with Cleveland-26 yrs old) after and replaced him with Mike Anderson. He let Mike Anderson go (healthy-cut for salary cap reasons) and replaced him with Tatum Bell and Mike Bell... If you can guess when Shanahan is going to change his mind, you're better at that than I. As for the rankings, even you have 6-8 guys definitely ahead of Morris. It's not like you are saying he's a top 3 RB and I am saying he's a low RB2. Richardson is going to get drafted over Morris and will probably out-perform Morris next year. The two guys were basically equals in PPR last year even when one was healthy and the other missed the entire offseason and then played on cracked ribs. Far more foreseeable that Trent puts up far better rushing numbers than he did last year vs. Morris going from 11-77-0 in receiving to something higher than that.
  15. No, I'm not digging. I'm just backing up what I said. I have no interest in simply railing on Alfred Morris but merely pointing out why his ranking is justified. I'm not saying he would have "sucked" at 8 TDs and 1475 yards, but with no receiving stats at all, he needs those TDs to be a top-flight fantasy RB. I only compared Greene's 2012 to Morris' 2012 for purposes of fantasy points because Greene is another guy with no receiving stats who relies on TDs and bulk carries to score. Take Morris down to 8 TDs and he's basically Shonn Greene fantasy-wise. Not quite a RB1 but close.On Helu, I went out and looked and found one article, which was more evidence than your bald statement of "he never got praised like Morris did". I am at work and I stopped looking after I found what I was looking for, there was no point in beating that dead horse. I saw quite a few Redskins games last year, including the playoff game. I did point out that they rode Morris hard in the last quarter of the season, and it made my point for me: Morris' season numbers were skewed by an abnormally high percentage of touches. Shanahan had no other options. RGIII couldn't run and the other RBs weren't healthy. If you read my initial post, I did not miss out on Morris. I grabbed him in every league that I could, particularly my deeper leagues. That doesn't mean that I am banking on that production again next year. I agree that Morris has a high floor as the starting RB in Washington. All I am saying is that his ceiling is lower than his 2012 output for a number of reasons: [*]RGIII may not be as hurt as he was last year. [*]Morris will not be the only healthy RB on the team. [*]It will be hard to score 13+ TDs again. [*]A healthier Helu or some other option will likely take Morris off the field on 3rd downs. [*]He's not likely to get 90% of the RB carries next year. [*]The Redskins are likely to score more of their TDs via pass.