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zoobird

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About zoobird

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  1. First NJ soccer practice yesterday. Looked like a regular practice from what I could see. Scrimmage against a team from another town in 'Summer League' starting Sunday. Feels lowish risk at a micro level, but like a bad idea at a macro level.
  2. Travel soccer starting here next week - practices and 'friendly' scrimmages organized by one of the NJ leagues. Not sure how I feel about this, but we are letting my 13yo participate.
  3. Deliberately kept the scenario simple to illustrate the point and make the math easy. Feel free to plug in more realistic numbers. 100 people have Covid. 20 get very sick. All of those get tested and test positive. 1 of them dies. 80 people are asymptomatic. 10 of them happen to get tested because of jobs, an abundance of caution, exposure to sick people, etc. All 10 of those test positive. 1 of 100 (1%) of people with Covid died. 1 of 30 (3%+) of people who tested positive for Covid died. 1 of 20 (5%) of people who were sick and tested positive for Covid died. As long as you use a reasonable set of assumptions, the math will always lead to the same general conclusion - if you're sick and test positive for Covid, your chance of dying (or suffering other serious long-term effects) is going to be far higher than the overall death rate of the disease.
  4. I thought he explained it pretty well, but another way to think of the same thing... 100 people have Covid. 20 of those people get sick enough to get tested and test positive. A total of 1 person dies. 1% of the people who have Covid died. 5% of the people who tested positive for Covid died.
  5. Really seems to be a large percentage of the population (including him) that think they're going to trick the virus on a technicality.
  6. Reyna finally started. Hasn’t done much in first fifteen minutes.
  7. Seeing some updates in the last few minutes that DeSantis blew the details this one and that of the 500 new tests, only 2 are positive. The 260 positives are going back to March and include people who aren't airport employees.
  8. That's an unbelievably stupid statement from them. It should have been obvious that 99% of the people who heard about it wouldn't make the distinction and would draw the wrong conclusions.
  9. Even beyond that, betting odds on Betfair (exchange wagering) allow those with the strongest convictions to scale their bets up and have the greatest influence. Over time, the most successful bettors build the biggest bankroll and the most confidence...resulting in the largest bets and the most influence on the odds. It's not a perfect predictor, but it's far better than almost any individual expert's opinion and takes new information into account almost instantly.
  10. I assume that Abraham and Werner wouldn't really be effective on the field together at the same time?
  11. I love horse racing, but man is it a painful and disappointing sport to follow at times. Just in the last few months, there's - California breakdown epidemic, Maximum Security drug scandal, Charlatan drug test, Nadal early retirement and yesterday Arrogate died at only 7 years old. I know he didn't really get discussed here because he started racing after the Triple Crown races ended in 2016 , but in my opinion he was the best horse since Spectacular Bid, and I'm not sure that any horse ever had a four race stretch that was better than his (admittedly very short) prime.
  12. I suspect that you may be right. I actually think using Llanez off the bench is excusable, but not starting Gio would be a crime.