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Walking Boot

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Walking Boot last won the day on November 13 2016

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  1. My completely uneducated opinion is that a lack of reps/practice generally favors a defense over an offense... the offense is trying to complete plays, the defense is trying to interrupt them, therefore, the onus is on the offense to be successful. The defense can make a mistake and if the offense makes a mistake on the same play, it's a win for the D. The offense is only successful on those plays where they don't make mistakes. However, if an offense is well-practiced together enough, already has timing down, and the QB is both accurate with his throws and can "read" a defense properly and identify when they're lined up in the wrong formation to guard the play that's been called, and/or his team can audible to the right play to exploit a mismatch or misalignment, a good/smart offense should completely eat alive an unprepared defense. Hammer the teams where the main pieces on offense are still in place from last season, especially if they're up against a defense that hasn't been together long.
  2. Yeah, no idea why it wasn't listed as content for the season. Glad to see it back!
  3. I don't see the "Rent A Kicker" feature in the FBG content for this season. Might need this thread to really step it up.
  4. I have a minuscule percentage. Something like five thousandths of 1 percent. And I'm not getting anything from this race. The group purchased Authentic with a "kicker" clause in the contract from the previous owner... if he wins a grade 1 (he did, the Haskell), we owe the old owners an extra million. If he wins the Derby, we now owe another nine million for the horse. I would have gotten paid like $10 or $20 if he finished second or third, because the kickers wouldn't have kicked in and we'd split the runner up share of the purse. But, now, the hope is he's worth more at stud having won the Derby. My share includes a cut of the breeding rights. So now, I guess, I'm a pimp.
  5. One of my other horses, tizamagician, half brother to tiz the law, also won today 🙂
  6. Yep, the one man show is what inspired the sitcom. How it got to PBS and produced by former NBC president Brandon Tartikoff, I have no idea.
  7. What ADP list are you using in the SETUP tab? I have all the teams in my league set to EXPERT and I'm seeing Sanders at 2.03.
  8. I apply a "multiplier" that reduces over time. Currently, for someone I have 16 years of draft data on, it applies a weight of 100% to last year's draft, 75% to the one from two years ago, 50% to the one from 3 years ago, 25% to the one from 4 years ago, etc. The farthest 6 years back bottom out at 1%. When an owner leaves, I'll use the numbers from his last 2 or 3 years and give that to the new guy in his first year. Then as I gain info on the new guy, I'll adjust those multipliers to heavily favor the data since he took over.
  9. I used to more than I do now. My prep is pretty refined at the moment. We're going into year 18 of my league. Maybe six or seven years ago, I got the bright idea of looking at the league history and exporting all the draft results. I keep track of them in an Excel spreadsheet. Excel then automatically figures out each guy's tendencies. It looks at each owner's draft and analyzes when they picked each position. So I know if Owner A takes his QB1 at 3.05 on average, and Owner B takes his QB1 at 7.08 on average. Same for RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, etc. It then sorts by the current year's draft order and exports a single list of when every position is expected to be taken. I adjust it for keepers and then import the whole thing into Draft Dominator. I maybe mock it through a few times in DD just to see where the guys I need (handcuffs for keepers, etc) go and that's about it. It ends up pretty close. Every year some hype guy will go a half round early or so. If I miss a guy, I don't sweat it. It's never by more than a few picks anyway and the guy I get in the round before is usually worth it. It's really, really good at knowing about how many guys at each position will be taken between my picks so I can tell when a tier is going to run out. It takes maybe an hour of Excel work to set up the analysis by updating with last year's draft, then adjusting to account for keepers. Then an hour or two reading a few articles, catching up on injuries and news, etc. Scanning /r/fantasyfootball. Then three/four/five mocks in DD and I'm fairly confident I'll smoke everyone at the draft. We usually draft around 6PM so I do all the prep I need that day. I have a running thing with a friend in the league where we trash talk the other owners. I usually text him after lunch on Draft Day to let him know "I'm actually going to start doing my research and prep now, see you in a few hours." I think it unnerves them a little when they know I've done 10% of the "research" they've done and I still come out way ahead.