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Bronco Billy

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Everything posted by Bronco Billy

  1. While I really respect Gurley’s game and production, does anyone think the Rams want to go though the playoffs again with getting minimal production from him? I’m guessing - yes, guessing - that McVay is going to do eveything to get him regular season work but preserve him for the playoffs. That’s going to leave a lot of workload in the regular season for another RB. I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season. If so, with his homerun abilty, he’s got a good shot at a solid RB2 with some upside. They didn’t move up to sit Henderson on the bench if he shows some skills in OTAs/PS
  2. Is this a FF message board or a peer review? I’ll take data where I can get it and then decide for myself how much emphasis to apply.
  3. I do like carrying players on contract years. Highly motivated.
  4. Looks like they have at least 21 years of data evaluating all RBs in each draft - but you’re welcome to ask them.
  5. Use or discards facts anyway you choose.
  6. Some very familiar historical names on the list below, plus some interesting comparisons ********************** link Josh Jacobs, Alabama BackCAST Score: -39.3% RecIndex: +0.02 Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds. Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections: Worst Backcast for 1st/2nd round RBs 1998-2019 Joe Montgomery -73.7% Kenny Irons -63.2% Brandon Jackson -60.6% John Avery -46.8% Chris Henry -45.5% Josh Jacobs -39.3% Julius Jones -38.2% Travis Henry -35.1% Montario Hardesty -33.0% Christine Michael -26.3% Ameer Abdullah -21.9% DeShaun Foster -14.7% Mike Cloud -12.8% Chris Perry -12.7% Montee Ball -9.5% That is not a great list. So why is BackCAST so down on Jacobs? When a running back fails to even lead his own team in rushing attempts, it is typically a major red flag. Here, Jacobs had fewer carries than his teammate, Damien Harris, whom BackCAST does not particularly like either. In terms of yards, Jacobs was not even the second-leading rusher on his own team. That distinction goes to sophomore Najee Harris, who had three fewer carries but 140 more rushing yards. Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs. That leads to another issue with Jacobs' prospects -- his relative inefficiency. Last year, Jacobs averaged only 5.33 yards per carry, which was a full half-yard per carry less than Damien Harris and nearly a yard and a half per carry less than Najee Harris. Indeed, Damien Harris is a similar prospect to Jacobs, but he edges Jacobs out in BackCAST because he had a larger share of Alabama's carries and a higher average yards per carry. To top it off, Jacobs appears to be rather slow. Jacobs did not run at the combine, but reports from his pro day suggest that he, at the fastest, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.60 seconds. That is not a time that will doom a running back to failure, but slow college running backs who succeed at the NFL level typically have more college production than Jacobs. Unfortunately for Jacobs, his BackCAST numbers are simply poor overall.
  7. FWIW, my post was tongue-in-cheek. But Gruden did say he was not practicing after stretching but that he was participating in walk throughs.
  8. So he hurt himself stretching? Definitely 1.01 material...
  9. All the Kamara references are interesting. I seem to remember that he was not very highly thought of by more than a few in FF rookie drafts also and his ADP was sitting right around where Henderson’s is now. His proponents were cautiously optimistic because the talent was offset by a likely timeshare, and there were a couple of relentless naysayers who were certain he wasn’t so good.
  10. Ah. nm - that falls under “**** happens”
  11. You undercut a guy shooting a jump shot? Bad, bad form my man.
  12. So that means what? That the traits he shows were airbrushed in? You know what? Forget it. I don’t know why I expected different.
  13. Watch closely. This is how you admit that you were mistaken: Crap, sorry, midposted first link. That’s my bad. Now, how does that affect the evidence contained in the second link?
  14. I suppose it’s just way too much to hope just once you’d admit you were wrong. check the second run on the video here I can find lots more
  15. I don’t understand you at times and wonder if you’ve ever watched the players you address when you make comments like the one above, which you seem to do with regularity. I have yet to see a scouting report that doesn’t list elusiveness as one of Henderson’s greatest attributes, if not the greatest. He’s been ranked by scouting team after scouting team as one of the top 2 most elusive RBs in this class. You can watch all sorts of film that shows tons of evidence of his ability to jump cut or to change his angle of attack and then blow by tacklers. This isn’t a matter of opinion. This is posting something that is completely contrary to a plethora of well documented and easily accessed facts. You may want to take a look at some of his game films and then perhaps reconsider this post.
  16. The guy has a decent build but seems to be missing a lot of NFL pieces. Vision is not real good, misses cutback lanes. Has no patience and runs up his blockers’ back, doesn’t seem to know how to set up his blockers. Not particularly powerful. Seems to like to bounce runs to the outside but doesn’t figure to have the speed to get to the corner ahead of pursuit at the NFL level. He was good enough to play well at Dll, but he also wasn’t head and shoulders above his competition, which makes the NFL a huge jump for him. I hope I’m wrong - I love these kinds of stories. But I’m just seeing too many holes in his game.
  17. Yeah, they are a pretty poor franchise for sure. Good point.
  18. I don’t want to get to far into this, but I have to ask. If fumbling is such an easy problem to solve, then why does he still have it? You think his high school and college coaches just didn’t notice him putting the ball on the carpet or just didn’t care? How does a consumate pro like Adrian Peterson continue to have fumbling problems throughout his pro career if the fix is so simple?
  19. He is claiming he knows which RB is going to be more valuable. Before they’ve ever played a down in the NFL.
  20. Saw an interesting study on a similar situation. Based upon the ratio of starters garnered from the 3rd round and lower vs those drafted in the 1st and 2nd, NFL teams that trade down in the draft actually reap greater benefits than those who trade up. It was counterintuitive to me until I read the report and verified the data set. Seems the smart money would be taking the 3 2nds. Ask New England.
  21. Are you telling me right now that you know Jacobs is the $2k set and Henderson is the $1k set? Before they’ve ever played a down in the NFL? Give me the winner of the 2020 Superbowl please. I’ll expect a warranty. I’ll return the favor. I’ll warranty that Holyfield isn’t the $2k set.
  22. Averaging 1 catch for 8.5 yards per game over the last 2 years? How is he even still in the league? Does he play pretty well on special teams?
  23. I got him at 2.01 in a 14 teamer by trading up from 2.04. But I also believe he’s the best RB in this draft and have no interest in trading into players that went in that range. I’m comfortable being in the minority with my valuation and holding.
  24. It makes for an easier discussion. But in the end, whichever performs better in accumulating FF stats was the better pick at equivalent draft capital. By taking Jacobs 1.01 and having him put up pedestrian stats is just as big a difference maker on your team as the same thing happening with Henderson. Theoretically you ought to be able to maintain higher overall draft capital with a wait for Henderson, but beyond pick 1.03/1.04 there’s no guarantee he’s there to be drafted. If he’s your guy and you’re sitting at 1.01, you’re going to need a draft partner in the next 3 picks and then there’s still no lock one of the others doesn’t grab Henderson. You’re looking at current expectations when you make your conclusion. What happens if Jacobs is pedestrian and Henderson turns into Kamara2.0 or Gurley ends up limited or worse with the allegedly arthritic knee? Then who would have been the better choice at 1.01? That’s not everything going right for Henderson while everything goes wrong for Jacobs - that could be a very real and reasonable perception of future events by someone drafting in FF this year. .
  25. I appreciate these comments a lot. I understand where you’re coming from here - ADP should impact actions somewhat because you don’t want to reach a long ways. But then the question becomes how far should you move down and still have certainty that you’ll get your guy? Let’s say that you’re willing to be foolish and crazy and completely disregard Coop’s rigid insistence, and instead believe that Henderson will be a better FF producer than Jacobs or any other RB in this draft and is the best RB in the draft this year. How far do you then trade down and still have certainty that you’ll be able to get him? Is 1.08 too far? This year, I believe so. Drafts are all over the board. How about 1.05? Is there surety there? If so, what happens if the owners of 1.02 to 1.05 are not interested in trading? Well, according to Coop you are supposed to let the guy who in your judgment may be the best FF RB producer in the draft go elsewhere and either trade down further and let Henderson go elsewhere while accepting a lesser player; or just draft the guy who you think isn’t the best RB and is a bust candidate in the draft at 1.01. My point is that if you do your vetting, both internally and through sounding boards that you consider reliable and knowledgeable, and you still think Henderson is the best guy on the board, then yeah - you take the plunge and reach for him. Better that and trying to pluck value later in the draft in the event he does bust than to just go status quo and take a lesser guy to watch the guy you thought was a stud blow up on someone else’s team. If you watch the teams that are more successful in the NFL draft make their picks, that’s what they do. Let the common “knowledge” be damned and go get the guys they think are players, ignore when the “draft experts” roast them for reaching, and get their last laugh in the end. And even when they do make mistakes up high, which happens to every team, they always seem to reap a couple of gems down low when other teams are drafting guys they’ll end up cutting 5 months later. IMO, it’s a lot more fun when you’re doing your homework and building your team with your guys than it is just adhering to some dogmatic practice or plugging measurables and college data into some formula that misses half the time or more - because there’s no way to quantify guys who are just football players above all else, or who carry a ton of heart, instinct and football IQ onto the field.