Concept Coop

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  1. It's the second best ever for a rookie. My mistake. ...and earned an elite PFF receiving grade of 90.5, the second-highest ever recorded by a rookie running back.
  2. He got the 2nd highest PFF receiving grade for a back ever. Production doesn't happen in a vacuum. I don't mean he's a different kind of beast in the way that Barkley is. I'm referring to utilization. He ran 80 more routes that the next highest rookie back in (PFF kept) history (Reggie Bush). There's no sign that Carolina was anything but thrilled with what he did out of the backfield or want to use him any differently moving forward. Norv's said as much. To your point, if Duke was married to that situation for 4 years I'd be a lot higher on him than I am. (I don't want either guy in the 2nd round.) But it's not really fair to compare their production this year without context. CAR experienced a net positive, in terms of game flow. Obviously the Browns were awful. Garbage time does a lot for receiving backs. I only mean to argue against using past backs to establish McCaffrey's baseline. I'm not buying at his current price and think the previous talk of him being a 3 down back looks silly now.
  3. McCaffrey ran 448 routes last season. "3 down RBs" don't do that. As of November (season totals behind paywall) 15% of his snaps came out of the slot and another 9% split out wide. We have to adjust our projections to match the utilization. He's a new kind of beast in a league increasing willing to maximize his talents. I don't think it makes sense to compare him to backs who weren't used as he is. (Again, in the same way it didn't make sense to use past QBs to establish Newton's rushing baseline.)
  4. This reminds me of the Cam Newton debate. Folks argued he couldn’t do X rushing TDs because it hadn’t been done before. Newton wasn’t used like a traditional QB in the same way McCaffrey (Kamara) isn’t used like a traditional RB. Newton of course went on to smash the career QB rushing TD record in just 6 seasons. McCaffrey (Kamara) is going to have a few 80 catch seasons - and that doesn’t make him Marshall Faulk.
  5. I think Zeke has Gurley PPR upside. I think his lack of receptions to this point in his career is a product of the scheme and play calling. Receiving ability: Barkley > Zeke > AP, IMO. Edit: Just a small quibble. I agree with your overall point.
  6. Beaver up a tree won’t get wet.
  7. I'll add that I was really surprised how make-or-break year 3 seemed to be for QBs when I looked - good call. (And I was wrong about Brady's third season.)
  8. Winston was 7th in YPG last year, 4th in YPA, 12th in PCT. Tom Brady's 3rd season (25 YO): 62%/3,764/28 TD/14 INT Winston's 2nd season (22 YO): 60%/4,090/28 TD/18 INT I'm not saying Winston is HOF bound. I'm not even really high on him. But he's an average QB today, at least. I just don't see room to argue that that's all he'll ever be. The kid is a year younger than Carson Wentz.
  9. Big Ben. Tom Brady if you ignore #1. In just about every other case I checked, season 3 was the year QBs cracked the top 10. Winston was on par, at least, through the first 2 seasons, and suffered a shoulder injury in season 3.
  10. What are you willing to pay for Larry Fitzgerald, assuming a contending roster that has a hole to plug?
  11. I agree. I just think it make sense to drill down a bit more on guys like Hunt and Kamara. They were day 2 picks who racked up 1,500+. Adjust the constraints a little bit and I assume (haven't done the work) the outlook is pretty good. I certainly agree that we've been too high on guys like Howard, to pick a recent example.
  12. You could respond to the reasoning I provided. Or don't. But don't straw man me by omitting it from your quote.
  13. I think it's an interesting one. I certainly concede that you're right: Barkley's short-term value is bulletproof. But that only has value if you act on it, which is still a dicey proposition. With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to say you'd have moved on from Trent, for example, after year 1. But at the time, it was a tough call and most didn't. Which I think is KM's point. It's nice that Joe Mixon owners (a current example) have a nice sell window if they want it, but most are holding - and I'm not sure that's the wrong move.
  14. This is too broad a stroke to have any value. Kamara didn't rush for 1,000 (which is good?) and Hunt ran for 1,300+. Hunt lead the league in rushing. Using that as in indicator - which I'd argue is a much better model - he's a coin flip for the HOF.
  15. Close for me. I could see myself preferring either side, depending on the roster. As WR is so shallow, I'd lean Cooper in a vacuum.