Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Concept Coop

Members
  • Content Count

    10,498
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Concept Coop

  1. Absolutely. The industry is incredibly agile and, by NFL standards, affordable. Most teams are probably using Amazon. That said, I’m certainly curious how much weight they put in it; I honestly have no idea.
  2. I’m sure there are plenty of data scientists with fantasy football hobbies. In that sense, you could be right. But we’re doing incredible things with machine leaning/AI. The gap between cutting-edge analytics and guys like us using Excel and manually building models can’t be overstated.
  3. If there is any predictive value, there’s no doubt they’re incorporating it in their models. How much stock the decision makers put in analytics is a question, but all 32 orgs have an analytics team running models that we hobbyists can’t compete with. My biggest issue with most hobbyist metrics is that the creators don’t test against or control for draft position. It’s like creating a gambling model that doesn’t aim to beat the spread. Knowing that home teams win 55% of their games does a gambler zero good, as the betting lines already account for it. Your model has to beat the spread to have any value. If the league is aware of past trends and still highly values a player on the wrong side of those trends, we shouldn’t be ignoring that. And that’s even assuming the hobbyist model has predictive value. You can’t apply a model to past happenings and call it predictive. Predictive models have to be measured by actual predictions.
  4. The odds of all 4 of them missing. (Edit: And my was right the first time. Fixed it.) 0.92*0.92*0.92*0.92 = 0.72 So you think there is a 72%?chance that none of them ever finish top 24?
  5. If my math is right, you think there is a ~72% chance of 0 top 24 season between the four guys you list? You’d take that bet?
  6. I’m struggling to follow. If there were 2 false positives in the first round alone, how is Tyreek Hill the only one? It might be easier to read if you break it up by those who met the criteria and those who didn’t, then again by those with a top 24 finish l and those who without. If you could give me those 4 numbers by round, I’d be in your debt.
  7. I agree with some of this. I do think dom% and breakout age are general indicators of ability. My question is whether they keep being quality indicators once we control for draft spot. I know the best WRs tend to breakout earlier. But what is the track record for WR drafted early despite a later breakout age? How do 2nd round WRs with a late breakout compare to 3rd round WRs with an early one, etc., etc.?
  8. He was refuting your argument. You picked a variable and found a correlation. He picked a different variable and found an equally strong correlation. Why one would have predictive value and not the other is a valid question - and you haven’t answered that.
  9. He’s not. He’s performing the exact same univariate analysis that you are. He simply changed the variable. In doing so, he found an even stronger correlation than you did. It’s a valid question.
  10. Are you sure it predicts misses? It could - and I’m open to that - but I don’t think you’ve shown that it has any predictive value. You’d have to test it against other variables, at the very least.
  11. Have any breakout/dom% studies controlled for draft spot? Is the NFL behind here? Is there truly an inefficiency to exploit? A few years ago a poster did a study that found that NFL teams were under-drafting small school WRs. For a few years at least, there was value in drafting small school WRs ahead of big school WRs drafted in the same range. (But the NFL quickly corrected for that.) Was the NFL ever behind on these metrics? If so, have they caught up? I think what clop is saying - is that correlation a isn’t predictive model in and of itself.
  12. That doesn’t make any sense. Even if it’s discounted from what it was a couple months ago -and I’m not saying it is or should be - the newly reduced value is still “full value”.
  13. He didn’t even tell us what his asking price was.
  14. I think it depends on how far out we’re taking. I love Lindsay’s talent, but am only viewing him as a 3 year asset. Anything I get above and beyond that is icing, anything less and I’m taking a hit. I’m not discounting him for the ACL. Unlike Gurley and Ajayi, we haven’t heard degenerative/chronic whispers. In that sense, Lindsay carries no more risk than Chubb, Cook, Guice, Watson, H. Henry, K. Allen, etc.
  15. Gurley’s knee was raising red flags 2 years after the repair. His situation is unique, relative to other professional athletes. My only point was that we don’t need to change the way we view ACL tears because of Todd Gurley. And we don’t even know how he will be impacted moving forward.
  16. Gurley’s arthritis (or the severity of it) was an atypical response to ACL surgery, despite what his trainer says. They’ve known about the issue for some time and that’s likely why they wouldn’t let team docs examine it during the pre-draft process. I think it’s a mistake to assume ACL tears will lead to the issues that Gurley is dealing with. As for Lindsay’s knee, I don’t think we really know anything. If you’re really conservative, it might make sense to a avoid him or move him for equal value.
  17. It seems like a sizable portion of the community sees his 2018 season as a fluke (FBG included, based on 2019 projections). The Bengals are an easy team not to pay attention to, but the kid sure looked the part to me.
  18. I’d take him over everyone but Jacobs. So the 1.02 for me. I’m sure most would put him closer to 1.05 though.
  19. I think the TD:INT ratio is lofty, but the rest is doable. I think he exceeds Wilson’s rushing numbers and throws for 200+ YPG.
  20. A few years ago a QB like Jimmy might have been worth more than a WR like Fuller. I just think we’re in a lopsided buyer’s market and that Fuller is well above his current market value. Maybe in some leagues Fuller is the price and it’s the right move to make. I think those leagues are the exception, however.
  21. I agree that ADP doesn’t match trade value for QBs, but have found trade value to be below ADP for Jimmy types, in my leagues. In 12 team leagues, most owners have starters they’re comfortable with, and most of them have at least one quality backup. (The typical team has something like Rodgers/Jimmy.) I peaked and Jimmy is a clear backup in all 4 of my leagues. I was desperately trying to use Brees to trade up from 2.02 for Murray, and couldn’t get anything for him. I was told an early 3rd would would do it, and couldn’t even turn Brees into that. Jimmy is much younger, but why part with a flex worthy piece for him, when both short-term assets like Brees and long-term assets like Haskins can be had for a 3rd? In my experience, Fuller gets you Dak or Ryan every time.
  22. I’m not projecting the offense to be top 10; it doesn’t need to be. I’m projecting Murray to be a quality rookie QB with a lot of rushing production. Looking at the guys who have had the rushing production that Kyler projects to, top 10 feels safe, if he can stay healthy. And Murray is a better passer than most of them. Josh Allen put up ~170 yards and 1 TD/INT per game - and was QB2 overall, once they started using him as a runner. Murray might not match that rushing production, but he’ll smash those passing totals.
  23. The KC offense was a juggernaut prior to Mahomes stepping in. Arizona doesn’t have the weapons, has a questionable offensive line, and the system is new and has no track record at this level. I’m bullish on Murray - I would even buy that he has Mahomes upside down the road - but I don’t see 40 TDs as attainable this year. With his running ability, 40 TDs probably makes him the highest scoring fantasy player ever.