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About Hoosier16

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  1. From week 1 or after week 2? Week 2.
  2. I just went through the top 50. There were maybe 5 teams with more than 3 players from a team.
  3. ouch Good thing I can't add. Had 148.90 and slipped by. Still have NE and GB as my SB teams but that's it. Going to need a lot of luck next week.
  4. 144.7, but done. Hopefully enough, but will be down to only 4 for next week.
  5. I think you're too high. Add 4 or 5+ more zeros before the 1. I have all of his NE/GB players covered. I'm sure there are many more. His only chance would be that his players account for not only every point in the Super Bowl, but also every yard. There is probably a better chance that I'll be the Super Bowl MVP.
  6. NE-GB. Tough week will be this week with only 6 players. Need big weeks from Rodgers, Brady, and Wilson. Seth Roberts $4 Clive Walford $4 Golden Tate $9 Marvin Jones $6 Russell Wilson $29 Doug Baldwin $20 Aaron Rodgers $33 Aaron Ripkowski $5 8.20 Ty Montgomery $18 9.80 Davante Adams $18 26.50 Randall Cobb $5 Geronimo Allison $4 1.80 Richard Rodgers $3 0.00 Tom Brady $34 Julian Edelman $21 Malcolm Mitchell $8 0.00 Martellus Bennett $13 0.00 Stephen Gostkowski $15 0.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 150.90 CUTOFF 91.90
  7. Why do the projections not match the IVC projections? Is the IVC updated and the projections page not updated?
  8. Did McCoy get hurt?
  9. Did you have Brady/Mitchell in all of those or just the 133?
  10. I've been playing 3 lineups in the main slate, doubles and triples. Mostly, they don't vary much. In general, I haven't felt like it has hurt, but I did notice that my loser this week was my #3.
  11. Thanks to all who responded. While I didn't get the answer I wanted to hear, I think the answer for me, with limited knowledge, is to stay away from the NBA.
  12. So I've been following this thread and have read all 20 or so pages. Most of it seems to be about lineups, but I'd like to find out a little about the site. Like Bass, I think the football projections are outstanding. I haven't seen much comment on the basketball projections here. How are they? I've seen a few comment that they only look at the Deep Dive. Is anyone basing their picks off the projections or are you running everything subjectively? If you are using them, how are your results? Does anyone precisely track their ROI and if so, do you credit (or blame) the projections or your subjective knowledge for the results? Thanks.
  13. I assume most track their results. I'd be interested to see how others do. If you haven't seen it, rotoGrinders has a tool that will automatically download and sync your results from Fanduel. It then breaks it down by categories so you can analyze your results. One interesting thing I have seen with mine is that I have the same winning percentage (actually slightly higher) with the triple ups as I do with the double ups and 50/50s. For the past 2 months, I'm at about 60% with all of them. This suggests that my average finish with a winning lineup tends to be at least in the top 29%. Obviously, the ROIs are significantly different for those contests using a 60% win number (8% for 50/50s, 20% for double ups, and 80% for triple ups). I think I have enough entries to believe the results but I will be testing it further by beginning to enter more triple ups in December. I haven't seen any quadruple ups and I think the quintuple ups (with a 17% payout threshold) would be too much like tournaments. I also found that my tournament ROI was -13% and the win percentage was 31%. So when I win, I'm clearly finishing near the bottom of the payouts. I'll need to make some adjustments there and hopefully what I picked up from Dodds and the staff in their eBook will help. Anyway, if you haven't used the tool, it's seems worthwhile and beneficial.
  14. Thanks for the responses. My thought on the heuristics was that if they were truly somewhat predictive based upon his current stats, then it would seem that making further adjustments based upon that would further improve the projections. I still think having floor and ceiling projections would be beneficial. I don't really understand why they would be any worse then the projections themselves. All those problems listed affect the average projection as much as they would affect floors and ceilings.
  15. I've just finished reading the eBook and have a few questions for the staff or anyone else who may know the answers. Dodds wrote a section on heuristics. Are these built into his projections? For example, does a RB get an additional adjustment for being a home favorite?If not, wouldn't that make the projections better? I realize that by starting with Vegas O/U and implied scores builds a little of that into the projections but it seems like his study was done using his projections, applying those filters after. Second, are there any plans to add variance to the stats? Having a floor and ceiling based upon historical variance for each player or matchup would seem to be very helpful in construction GPP versus cash games. It could be two more options added to the points, value, and H value options. Thanks.