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Everything posted by Iceman03

  1. I would not be concerned by this past season for a few reasons: 1) He already had a breakout as a WR. It’s not the ideal age but it was roughly a ~20 y/o breakout. 2) He isn’t the “ideal” height weight combo but he is >26 BMI and taking on the share he did this season proved him durable. 3) Speaking of the share, you will be hard pressed to find any non QB carrying 40% of their offense. Yes, I understand that’s the “position” he ended up playing but that is completely unfair considering he was never a QB and this was done out of total desperation. 4) He did this in the SEC. This wasn’t the ACC or Big 12 he was running through. Guy is a hero of the Kentucky faithful and rightfully so. I’m pretty sure the NFL has room for a player like him.
  2. What, no James Robinson or Adrian Killins blurb Faust?
  3. Some random thoughts after the commentary here, with the Shrine Bowl taking place yesterday and taking a second look at things: - James Robinson I would like to put as a tier 2 RB. Part of my process this year was to lower sub power 5 schools a tier and then lower sub D1 another tier. He mad enough favorable impression at the Shrine game that if he gets a combine invite and tests well he could go in the middle rounds. -If we were drafting today Cam Akers would be my #1 RB. Enough tea leaves have fallen to see he, more than the other three big name RB’s, was generating most of his yardage on his own. -I think I agree with the WR tier being too big or, at very least, that it needs a bit more definition to each group. I may work on something tonight. I’m still collecting and inputting a lot of basic data (height, weight, age, etc.) -The only prospect I hate and have bad things to say about so far is Van Jefferson. I don’t know why these wanna be NFL Scout film junkies cling to a guy like this every year. Riley Ridley part 2. Small, old, unproductive... did he really need to go play with Joe Burrow to prove how not good he is? -Players who I want to be higher on but can’t: Josh Imatorbhebhe and Brandon Aiyuk... both are going to shred the combine but didn’t do anything until their final season. They’ll probably go in a place I’m not very comfortable taking them. -Going to get real tired of non analytical peeps pointing to Terry McLaurin. IIRC, there wasn’t a single Terry McLaurin stan except for the dude that ran the Senior Bowl. I do understand the flaws there though. Even as an older prospect it was important to recognize his size/athleticism/draft capital combo. There is always going to be misses though.
  4. Robert Woods has a 27.3 BMI... pretty big for a WR. Kupp’s is 26.7. I’m not seeing this comparison for Jeudy and Lamb. Hopefully they weigh in closer to 26. John Brown has a 24.8 BMI. Honestly it’s not that I see those two as not having success, it’s that history tells us at their size their success is limited either by injury or by being in the mold of a splash play WR2. We should be building our dynasty rosters looking for high end WR1’s IMO.
  5. It doesn’t make sense for Austin Mack to be there over Johnson.
  6. I don’t have Jeudy or Lamb in a lower tier. My point is you’ve done this dance for multiple years. You have zero idea what these players are, neither do I. At this point last year Hakeem Butler was rushing his way up to WR1. A guy like Brandon Aiyuk could have the same sort of rise... why do I make that comparison? They both did absolutely nothing for 3 years of college. I like (and I assume Zyphros likes) Edwards 17 year old breakout age, which combined with draft capital is the most important predictor for WR success in the NFL. He has a 22 mph run on the books which means he could time sub 4.5. Also will be uber elite time at 6’4.
  7. Blindly stating Benny Snell > Miles Sanders and not giving much reason why except for counting stats and a general hatred for basic athleticism.
  8. I’m an OSU fan but Austin Mack is a strange invite... especially if they never pursued Tyler Johnson. Mack was disappointing under two really talented QB’s and disappeared from sight in major games. NFL scouts man, SMH.
  9. I’m not trying to be right, I’m trying to identify which players are most likely to succeed.
  10. Randall Cobb had a 1200 12 TD season when completely healthy... stop it
  11. Someone compared him to another UK alum Randall Cobb and I feel that’s a pretty close comparison for him as a WR.
  12. Here are some off the radar guys I am keeping a close eye on in this process: WR Antonio Gandy-Golden WR Quintez Cephus WR Mason Kinsey WR James Proche WR Nick Westbrook RB James Robinson RB Tra Minter RB Ben Lamey RB Jonathan Ward TE Devin Asiasi TE Adam Trautman
  13. Found one more error (of course)... Lynn Bowden got left out of the WR’s because I had lumped him with RB’s given his circumstance this year and I wanted a measure of his rushing market shares. He would be tier 2 for me but I am very high on him just as a football player in general.
  14. If I had to segregate it down I would do so by size and this is not going to be a popular thought process (I’m guessing as I haven’t even heard people talk about Gandy-Golden)... here is what the outcome would be Tier 1 Gandy-Golden 6’4 220 26.8 BMI Tyler Johnson 6’2 205 26.3 BMI Bryan Edwards 6’3 215 26.9 BMI Gabriel Davis 6’3 212 26.5 BMI Cody White 6’3 216 27 BMI Tee Higgins 6’4 216 26.3 BMI Laviska Shenault 6’2 220 28.2 BMI Jalen Reagor 5’11 195 27.2 BMI Michael Pittman Jr. 6’4 220 26.8 BMI Denzel Mims 6’3 215 26.9 BMI Tier 2 Isaiah Hodgins 6’4 209 25.4 BMI Justin Jefferson 6’3 192 24 BMI Jerry Jeudy 6’1 192 25.3 BMI CeeDee Lamb 6’2 195 25 BMI Honestly I don’t see how that helps me much. All it is doing is taking 3 high profile guys out of the top group. All three are projected to be some sort of first rounder right now. So while, based on their size, their ceiling may not be multiple 1200 yd seasons, they will end up with >60% likelihood for 1 or more top 24 season. I’m sort of getting into complicated territory here. This is a very productive and young WR group. It’s practically impossible for all these guys to go in the first three rounds but they all produced very young. Many of them are underclassmen and left early for a reason.
  15. Well if you’re asking me what the point is? What’s the point of anyone doing any sort of rankings at this point? People try to draw conclusions way too quickly in the fantasy community. All I’m doing is creating a list based off of incomplete information. The only thing the athletic metrics do is begin to add clarification on who a prospect from a predictive standpoint. Then the draft further solidifies the odds of a players success just based on how early they go as usually that correlates with the amount of opportunity they have to succeed. 🤷‍♂️ I have zero doubts this will look a lot different by the time all is said and done but over time I do tend to lean heavier on the production side of the house than the measurable side.
  16. Seems to be. They don’t overtly talk about this stuff. I also heard he had some trouble with the previous Minnesota coaching staff before the current staff got put in place.
  17. Only 1 WR since 2009 has posted multiple 1200 yard season at 6’2+ <210lbs... only 2 WR’s to be <26 BMI. 😉 Thing is what do you get by avoiding Marquise Brown or MeCole Hardman in rookie drafts? They get opportunity and make splash plays and then the fantasy community gets all worked up without understanding how size, durability and high end success work hand in hand. You’re getting more now for those two than N’Keal Harry or Andy Isabella.
  18. Those guys were really hard to project. Kupp has some draft capital going for him but was a bit older and a sub athlete. Edelman didn’t do anything for a long time, was an undrafted QB and is 5’10 198. Low YPR only gives me pause because of Zay Jones. It was his one big indicator that he may not be what the rest of his surface level check marks are suggesting.
  19. I worry about his low YPR some. I know he is a guy the devy community was in love with last year. They have to be too large now. It is not good process to start eliminating guys who meet thresholds for market share, breakout age and size I’m looking for. It will come out in the wash with measurables and draft capital. I will be placing a heavy emphasis on top 100 and forcing myself to drop players down who aren’t within that threshold (Hakeem Butler/Kelvin Harmon effect if you will). Edwards-Helaire is close. Some of those tier two guys could definitely make it into the first tier. In this case only having the one season of production has me holding him down for now. I like both the Bryant’s. That being said Hunter is estimated at 239lbs right now. That is far too small to be the kind of TE NFL teams will line up inline and the slot. Only Evan Engram really comes to mind for a TE that small. I will be proceeding with caution with him but he is someone that has gotten a lot of buzz that I wonder if I’m too low on (especially given his early production).
  20. He’s shifty and fast. Not overly powerful. Reminds me a bit of Aaron Jones coming out. People may scoff at that now given Jones past season but it’s taken Jones three years to earn respect in the league.
  21. Well he’s a true senior... which makes him a little older (22). That may make him slip on my board at some point. He’s at the Senior Bowl and I expect him to do well there. His offensive market share was 36.2% in the SEC. That ranked him behind only Jon Taylor draft eligible players in Major D1 conferences. He had a 7.9 YPC as a JR in the SEC and broke out as a freshman at Illinois. He checks all the blocks for me including a good track record as a receiver. Age and draft capital could cost him for me but until we make the combine he’s going to hang in my top tier. As I also listed he hit 21 mph for top speed which is an elite number. I expect him to test extremely well. ETA: he’s also listed at 218lbs. So while his overall carries look lowish, he certainly is built as more than a satellite back.
  22. I don’t want it to be that large. It’s hard to differentiate without the athletic testing. CeeDee Lamb, Raegor and Jerry Jeudy are a little bit on the smallish side for what I look for but are already known as tremendous athletes. I will also probably take heat for Ruggs at some point. His rank will probably increase as I intend to heavily emphasize draft capital. ETA: Thanks for pointing this out Lipscomb got listed in the wrong tier. Not that it lowers the overall tier 1 amount all that much.