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Everything posted by Iceman03

  1. Out of curiosity I’ve been looking back through some prospects 247 profiles. I think Peoples-Jones is going to go a lot higher than maybe I’m anticipating right now. Seems scouts put an emphasis on high school recruitment ranking (which I think is dumb but...). He’s also going to be a physical freak at the combine. I also was kind of looking at Kirk Merritt not knowing he was recruited to Oregon as a RB before his later success as a WR with Arkansas St. Apparently he won a high school SPARQ contest at 148.83 which, if the same formula, would be second to Miles Boykin last year.
  2. That probably suggests I may be too slavish to the 245 number as there is room to put on weight and play at a high level in the NFL. I’m not changing anything right now. I guess I’ll wait until the combine to figure out where to go. Hopefully the weigh in’s and athleticism start to align things.
  3. @ZWK There seems to be a big discrepancy at TE specifically with Pro Football Reference. They have Gonzo at 247, Walker at 248, Coates at 245 and Wycheck at 253. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Not sure what’s going on with that but you’re not the only one with variance in weight against what they list. ETA: Aaron Hernandez at 250
  4. I did get to do a quick TE study. I want to preface by saying that there were more than fantasy viable seasons stacked into the </= 245 lb results, however the results backed up my thought process. Between 2004 and 2019 there were 7 TE seasons listed at or below 245 lbs to start 14 or more games and post > 10 ppg (PPR). 6 of those seasons belonged to Kellen Winslow and Owen Daniels, the other was Eric Johnson (and PFR has him listed at 210 which can’t possibly be correct). During that same time frame there were 69 TE seasons listed at or above 246 lbs >10 ppg (PPR). Some notes: Winslow topped the list production wise posting an 1100 yd season. No other TE </= 245 posted a 1000 yd season. Jordan Reed posted a 17 and 14 ppg injury shortened season. Conclusion: Pretty much same as before. TE’s </= 245lb’s are outliers. Kellen Winslow and Shannon Sharpe are pretty much the two that managed to have a career of modest durability and production. While these players can produce well in stretches, I also believe them to be extremely less durable than the average TE. Zach Miller, Jordan Reed and Dennis Pitta all essentially suffered career ending injuries which makes up 33% of players in the querry.
  5. I had to do a triple take to make sure this factoid is correct but Van Jefferson has 1, 100 yard game. It was also the last game he ever played in college. How can anyone justify a 3rd round pick in real life on him?
  6. I want to expand on this study to span over the last 10-20 years but currently looking at the TE landscape the TE’s listed under/equal to 245 lbs include: Jordan Reed, Gerald Everett, Trey Burton, Irv Smith Jr., Evan Engram and Jacob Hollister. Only Burton has started all 16 games in a season. It’s already a brutal position and obviously there has been some modest fantasy appeal in that group but I think you’re asking a lot for someone hovering around 240 to be a consistent asset. Weigh in’s will be as important, if not moreso, for me with the TE’s.
  7. Decided I need to take a stand on TE’s after having some hesitancy of where the hype machines mind is. Tight End is an annoying and nuanced position. I think this class is also deep but a lot of these guys will have no business inline and people underestimate how much that hurts them (why the Bryant’s are “down” on my board). With development windows being into the 2nd contract I would suggest tempering any infatuation with TE’s. George Kittle is a true unicorn and shouldn’t be compared to people, though I’m sure he will. Anywho: Tier 1: 1) Colby Parkinson 2) Adam Trautman 3) Cole Kmet 4) Devin Asiasi 5) Thad Moss Tier 2: 6) Jared Pinkney 7) Harrison Bryant 8 ) Hunter Bryant 9) Brycen Hopkins Tier 3: 10) Stephen Sullivan 11) Albert Okwuegbunam 12) Charlie Taumoepeau 13) Jacob Breeland
  8. I went ahead and did pull the guys I project as a satellite out into their own grouping. I may have to insert Benjamin back into the fold if he goes in the top three rounds but at 195 he is too small to be a workhorse even with the game changing. Javon Leake and Anthony McFarland I also leave the door open for: Tier 2: Vaughn, CEH, Dillon, Moss Tier 3: James Robinson, Kelley, Perine, Warren, Antonio Gibson, Ben Lamey Satellite: Benjamin, Pete Guerriero, Salvon Ahmed, Darryton Evans, Jon Ward, Leake, McFarland, Killins
  9. I think Taylor and Akers will prove to be more athletic than Dobbins and Swift. That being said situation and draft capital will sway me. CEH also could get into the conversation if it was say early 2nd to someone like the Chiefs (dart throw hypothetical).
  10. Has anyone been brave enough to make the Love to Mahomes comparison and stamp their name on it? I find it atrocious. Love was absolutely terrible against Michigan State and LSU. Mahomes threw for over 500yds four times his last season and almost a fifth time. I was asleep at the wheel on that one. Jordan Love is no Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes is going to make him a wealthy man for what some team wants vs reality.
  11. “Per @JPSTATS of @ZebraTechnology fastest WRs at @seniorbowl practices - 1) Van Jefferson (UF) 21.05 MPH, 2) Antonio Gandy-Golden (Liberty) 20.05; 3) Austin Mack (Ohio St) 19.98; 4) Chase Claypool (ND) 19.94; 5) Devin Duvernay (Texas) 19.93. BTW: 7) Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) 19.58”
  12. “Fastest DBs in @seniorbowl practice per @JPSTATS -- 1) Dane Jackson (PITT) 20.98 MPH; 2) Lamar Jackson (NEB) 20.84; 3) Jared Mayden (ALA) 20.74; 4) Troy Pride Jr. (ND) 20.46. BTW - 6th-fastest WR from last Tweet was Kalija Lipscomb (VAN) 19.72 MPH”
  13. “The former Oregon quarterback had a maximum initial throwing speed of 65.8 miles per hour, second only to Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts (66.1 mph), and a maximum initial rotation of 740 rpm and average initial rotation of 518 rpm, behind only Utah State’s Jordan Love (747 and 546, respectively), according to Zebra Technologies. The higher the rate of rotation, the tighter a ball spirals and is delivered accurately, especially in adverse weather conditions.” @ZWK
  14. I think you should place a higher value on RB’s but not to the extreme of taking all RB’s. I tend to place value as something close to this depending on draft class: Tier 1 RB Tier 1 WR Tier 2 RB Tier 2 WR Tier 1 TE Tier 1 QB So on and so forth from there.
  15. Study of RB Durability vs. Workload “Conclusion: Although multiple potential confounding factors exist and may limit the results of this study, it should not be assumed that NFL RBs with a high carry total are placed at greater risk of injury or worsened performance in the subsequent season. These players are likely more durable and less injury prone compared with other NFL RBs. However, regardless of carry numbers, RBs in the NFL are at an increased risk of injury and missed playing time due to injury.”
  16. Perine, Kelley and Gibson really look the part of an NFL RB. Maybe not a full fledged stud but someone who can be the lead back in a committee. All have the size, quickness and receiving acumen if they land in a good offense.
  17. Exactly why you have to be a bit conservative with him. That being said he did produce as a sophomore, they just weren’t D1 yet. I’m not sure if Johnson was a transfer, I’m assuming so.
  18. I don’t know that you should “sour” on him. He will be a first, I have little doubt of that. He’s the same size as Calvin Ridley. I just don’t think you should go out of your way to make him your top pick. I don’t see his ceiling as being a high end WR1.
  19. There are two ironies about Van Jefferson. 1) He’s going to go to the combine and should run sub 4.5 if he can run 21mph in pads 2) If he goes in the top 3 rounds he has to go on my board for probability sake alone.
  20. No. Zach Mettenberger was Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham’s QB, they produced meeting all metrics and breakout age. Ken Dorsey was Santana Moss, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne’s QB... same deal. He’s not good and he’s old as dirt for a prospect. He’s a fictional prospect who has generated buzz by a backdoor probably because his dad is a coach and former player. ETA: Kyle Traisk threw for almost 3000 yards this year. The collective of Florida threw for almost 4000 yards. Despite this, as a 22 year old redshirt senior, he failed to reach a 20% recieving market share. On top of Trask he played with Chad Kelly, Shae Patterson and Jordan Ta’amu... despite all that he never posted a 20% market share meaning he never broke out. Unproductive WR’s are 99 times out of 100 unproductive because they are bad and not for what had happened surrounding them.
  21. “you can see Jefferson's a coach's son based on how he competes (his father, Shawn, is a former NFL receiver who currently serves as the New York Jets' WRs coach)” And now we see how the unnecessary rise of a 23 year old redshirt senior who was unproductive with 4 different QB’s came to be.
  22. Figured I would transfer some info over here since I went through most every school in the FBS. Here are the top five players at WR and RB for total team offense from 2019 returning next season: RB Jaret Patterson* Buffalo 39.6% Chuba Hubbard* OkST 38.6% Xazavian Valladay* Wyoming 32.2% Rakeem Boyd* Arkansas 31.6% Kylin Hill* Mississippi St. 31.4% WR Rashod Bateman* Minnesota 22.8% Tre Walker* San Jose St. 22.4% Chatarius Atwell* Louisville 22.4% Austin Watkins* UAB 22.1% David Bell Purdue 22.1% *draft eligible
  23. I don’t like Van Jefferson. He’s a classic example of scouts just making #### up. They say he doesn’t have great speed but he’s hit >20 mph this week. If they can’t tell what’s fast or slow how can they decipher what is or is not good route running?
  24. I think when the combine rolls around I could see me breaking down my RB tiers more. Thinking about the tier 4 being a satellite specific tier as I like to roster those kind of backs but they’re not worth as high of draft picks. It would look something like this given what I know about their relative weight and BMI: Eno Benjamin 195, 28.8 Salvon Ahmed 196, 27.3 Darryton Evans 200, 27.9 Jon Ward 202, 27.4 Anthony McFarland 198, 29.2 Adrian Killins 162, 25.4 Then Perine, Josh Kelley, Javon Leake, Ben Lemay and Antonio Gibson would either round out tier 3 or be the new tier 4 separate from the satellite specific tier.